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(无)研究报告:中国视点:央行再上调存款准备金率0.5个百分点-060724

研报作者:GS 来自:GS 时间:2006-07-24 08:33:17
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Russia ................. Ho ang hon iang@gs.com 852-2978-1941 China Views July 21,2006 GSGLOBALECONOMICWEBSITE Economic Research from the GSInstitutional Portal at 1 ng Li g.l The People’s Bank of China Raised Reserve Requirement Ratio by 50 Basis Points Again The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) raised the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) today by 50 basis points again to 8.5% from 8.0%, effective from 15 August,2006. This is a surprise move, given that the RRR was hiked 50 bps just a month ago. This policy adjustment reflected the government’s concerns on the continued acceleration in growth momentum after the release of 2QGDP and June activity data. Given the strong growth momentum in June and the emergence of inflationary, a decisive monetary tightening is a welcome step. It helps restore the central bank’s credibility of inflation control and reduce risks for more painful policy adjustments in the future. However, we continue to believe that reserve requirement adjustment is a blunt and inefficient tool for conducting monetary policy. In the short run, it is effective in reducing excess liquidity and growth of monetary aggregate. However, the past three year experiences in China have shown that its effectiveness tends to be eroded very quickly by continued inflows in FX driven by the undervalued currency. In addition, the excess reserve ratio, stood at 3% as the end of March, and therefore, the 50 bps increase in RRR is not biding on the banks’ capability to lend. This 50 bps hike is the fourth RRR adjustment since August 2003 (a 100 bps hike August 2003, a 50 bps hike in April 2004 and a 50 bps hike in June 2006). It highlights the challenges facing the PBOC to conduct monetary policy under a very open economy and a significantly undervalued currency. In the short run, we expect the reserve requirement hike to assert some downward pressures on the cyclically sensitive China assets, such as banks and commodities. The hike will also likely push up the market interest rates and yield curve in China. However, we do not expect the tightening measures implemented so far to lead to a significant slowdown in growth. We expect money and credit growth continue to soften in the coming months. Goldman Sachs Economic Research China Views 2 Global product; distributing entities The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs, and pursuant to certain contractual arrangements, on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty Ltd (ABN 21006797897) on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Canada by Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. regarding Canadian equities and by Goldman Sachs & Co. (all other research); in Germany by Goldman Sachs & Co. oHG; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs JBWere (NZ) Limited on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union. General disclosures in addition to specific disclosures required by certain jurisdictions This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options and warrants) thereof of covered companies referred to in this research. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. 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