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(无)研究报告:中国货币信贷数据:贷款增长明显放缓-060717

研报作者:GS 来自:GS 时间:2006-07-17 08:50:24
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Asia Economics Data Flash July 14,2006 Goldman Sachs Asia Economics Research Group Hong Liang, Helen (Hong) Qiao, Eva Yi +85229781941 GSGLOBALECONOMICWEBSITE Economic Research from the GSInstitutional Portal at Important disclosures appear at the back of this document China Money and Credit: Clear Signs of Moderation in June Exhibit 1: Table of money and credit growth data June May Apr Mar Feb Jan M2 % yoy 18.419.118.918.818.819.2 % qoq (sa, ann) 17.017.916.220.018.221.4 % mom (sa) 1.11.41.51.31.02.3 Total Loans % yoy 14.315.114.814.013.413.1 % qoq (sa, ann) 14.718.118.717.313.513.5 % mom (sa) 0.71.21.61.41.31.3 Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC), CEIC, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. June M2 and loan growth showed clear signs of moderation, on the back of the tightening measures taken since 2Q. Total loans growth moderated to 14.3% year on year (yoy) in June, down from 15.1% yoy in May. Sequential momentum softened further to 0.7% month on month (mom), down from 1.2% mom. CNY loan growth slowed to 15.2% yoy in June, down from 16.0% yoy in May. Sequential momentum also softened to 0.9% mom, down from 1.4%. In the mean time, M2 slowed to 18.4% yoy in June, down from 19.1% yoy in May. Sequential momentum also decelerated to 1.1% mom, down from 1.4% mom. Year to date CNY new loans reached Rmb2.18 trillion, or 87% of the Rmb2.5 trillion annual target set at the beginning of the year. In our view, the People’s Bank of China is likely to tolerate total new CNY loans to reach somewhere between 3-3.5 trillion for the whole year, instead of pursuing the pre-set target aggressively. This will imply a yoy growth rate of 15.4% to 17.9%, and moderately slower or roughly flat sequential growth rate compared with the current 17% quarter-on-quarter growth. We expect further moderation of money supply and credit growth in the coming months. In our view, the tightening measures adopted so far, which mainly includes intensive “moral suasion,” administrative controls against property market investments, as well as the hikes in the lending rate and reserve requirement ratio, should be able to further slow down M2 and credit growth. Meanwhile, we expect activity growth to be strong in 2Q2006, but start to moderate in 3Q2006. We continue to believe faster CNY appreciation will be critical in tightening the financial conditions, curbing imported inflation and helping rotate growth away from external demand to domestic demand. In the meantime, we believe draining excess liquidity and raising the deposit rate will also be needed to reduce banks’ incentive to lend, and to rein in inflationary expectations. Goldman Sachs Economic Research Asia Economics Data Flash 2 Exhibit 2: M2 growth 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Year-on-year growth Sequential growth % qoq sa, ann % chg M2 Growth Source: PBOC, CEIC, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Exhibit 3: Total loan growth 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Year-on-year growth Sequential growth % qoq sa, ann % chg Total Loan Growth Source: PBOC, CEIC, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. 3 Global product; distributing entities The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs, and pursuant to certain contractual arrangements, on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty Ltd (ABN 21006797897) on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Canada by Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. regarding Canadian equities and by Goldman Sachs & Co. (all other research); in Germany by Goldman Sachs & Co. oHG; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs JBWere (NZ) Limited on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union. General disclosures in addition to specific disclosures required by certain jurisdictions This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options and warrants) thereof of covered companies referred to in this research. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Current options disclosure documents are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at or from Research Compliance, One New York Plaza, New York, NY 10004. Copyright 2006 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

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