当前位置:首页 > 研报详细页

研究报告:中信证券-每周研报集萃-140130

研报作者: 来自:中信证券 时间:2014-01-30 15:12:16
  • 股票名称
  • 股票代码
  • 研报类型
    (PDF)
  • 发布者
    na***56
  • 研报出处
    中信证券
  • 研报页数
    63 页
  • 推荐评级
  • 研报大小
    1,649 KB
研究报告内容

2014127 -130 20140127 —“ ” 1-271 20131-12 — 1-282 20141 — “ ” 1-293 A 20142 — “ ” 1-274 A — 20141-275 — 1-276 A 20140129 1-298 1920142 1-309 A 20140130 1001-3010 20140127 — 1-2711 20140124 — 1-2712 2013 1-2813 20140127 1-2814 20141 — 1-2915 1 — “ ” 1-2916 20141 1-3017 1-2718 — TESLA 1-2719 — 1-2720 — 1-2721 2014 — 1-2722 — 1-2724 201312 — 1-2725 20141 — 1-2726 2014 — 1-2727 2014 — 1-2728 20141 — 1-2729 20141 — / 1-2830 —“ ” 1-2931 1-2932 — 1-3033 / 600284 — 1-2734 0020292013 —2013 1-2735 002022 — 1-2836 3003352013 — 1-2837 002714 1-2838 6008672013 1-2839 0023722013 — 1-2940 000778 — 1-2941 0021002013 — 1-2942 6010582013 — 50-60% 1-3043 002051 — 1-3044 002570 — 2014 1-2745 300335 — 20141-2746 601808 — 1-2747 600859 — & 1-2748 300090 — 1-2749 3001442013 — 1-2850 3002512013 1-2852 3003152013 1-2853 3000272013 1-2854 300104 — 1-2955 3000582013 — 1-3056 600323 — “ ” 1-3057 1 20140127 2014127 201440 “ ” Worldwide Governance Indicators 1 23 511 20141 22495 792 1193 430417 12829 QE 650 QE 112 “ ” “ ” 2 Sudden Stop 3 QEQE 4 5 QE 100 QE QEQE 2 20131-12 2014128 20136283112.2% 12 9425.36% 113.7 162201.34% 20131-1212.2% 1-111 126% 113.712 112011-2012 2013 201311.2% 201211% 129.5% 7 20136.11% 6.07% 12 9.02% 126.8% 1-110.2 4 PMI 1.70.2 4135 1113 5 55.3% 201413% 2014 201313% 20136.11% 201413% 3 20141 2014129 128 Repo 7.75% 8% 1 QE “ ” 1 8507502 121282% 2014 QE “ ” 2014129 QE 650 QE QEODI QE QE 113.665140 37602810129.87% 2008 QEQE QE GDP 2013 49.3% 60%+ 2013 “ ” Price-in QE 2013 4 A 20142 2014127 “ ” “ ” 2014 “ ” “ ” 2 PMI Bloomberg 2014Q1/Q2 GDP 7.6%/7.5% 1247.3%/7.2% 2014 GDP 7.5% 21 PMI 50 “ ” 2 “ ” 2 21 IPOIPO QE 201312 129 ~30 QE 6502324 “ ” “ ” IPO A 123 “ ” “ ” “ ” —— 5 A 2014 2014127 1202014 “ ” “2015 ” 20141520132 GDP 0.71 / 20133.9% 2010-2013 CAGR 2.5% 6 2014127 / / / -1 3.83% 3.73% 3003.31% 0.52% 0.42% 15.1% 12.9% 10.3% 1 A IPO A “ ” 2 14 2009 -1 3 “ ” 100 4 “ ” / + 5 13 A —— 6 APMI SEC 4.47% QE 4.52% A 5% / 10% 5% 5% 10% 5% 7 300% % % 13.7202013/12/2102014-1-20 4102013/4/8102014-1-27 3.54102013/9/252014-1-27 5.1102013/2/22102013-11-25 0.77102014/1/2752013-12-30 0.4852014/1/2752013-12-9 1.6152014/1/27102014-1-13 19.7752013/2/2252014-1-13 1.1652013/11/452013-12-23 5.1752013/2/2252013-12-30 6.7852013/10/2852014-1-13 2.3852014/1/13102014-1-27 1.7652014/1/1352014-1-6 52013-4-22 A 52013-8-5 66.22100100 7.1712.59 15.5820.99 Wind 8 A 20140129 2014129 128425BP 12% 12 QE 3% 1.5% 4% A 97 QE 10% 2014 QE 12 1 QE 750 5 QE 68 2 QE 2 2014 10 9 1920142 2014130 1 QE 2014 QE 4 485 / 6500 / 11124 CRB 0.8% WTI 1.9% Brent 0.3% 2.4% 1 1100650 20142 1 WTI 100 / Brent 7000~7400 / 7000 / 31200 / 1100 / 42013 2014 20142 3 31 1-3 3 31 1-3 5% 10 A 20140130100 2014130 129100650 12950bp 5.5% 100112 12 10065012 QE QE 9 QE 13 QE QE 3 2014 31005503 1003 50bp 5.5% 2 QE 2 2014 10 11 20140127 2014127 123 3530.13.8% 20 138.114.8% 131.214.4% 12325.63.3% 20 21.810.2% 21.8 12.1% 201300 55 300 ETF 300ETF 8.3% 50ETF 29.0% 300ETF 50ETF 180ETF 300ETF ETF 300ETF 214.4% 300ETF 34.5% 6.8% 300ETF 108.8% 5 50ETFETF 57.0% ETF 51.9% 300ETF 50ETF 300ETF ETF 38.9% ETF 40.7% 50ETFETF 35.5% ETF 35.2% 12 20140124 2014127 3001935.40759.13.15% 1668.87541.392.54% 2240.387 105.554.94% 6343.836330.595.5% 1402.95782.136.22% 7773.84% 4.34% 4.14% 3.83% 3.44% 4.18% 4.2% 1.41% 77780.58% 1.1% 0.61% 83.95% 1.24% 0.69% 78.86% 1.22% 0.57% 71.38% 0.25% -0.47% 96.01% 1.05% 0.9% 91.22% -0.16% -0.46% 777523 415% 254425% 5% 694 71929.86% 0.4% 54.24% 0.72% 1777 77.76% 1.32% 2 83.66% 76.59% 66.86% 93.99% 92.22% 7.15% 1.12% 1.52% 1.28% 2.02% 0.58% 2.05% 3 36.28% 2.92% 4 0.57% 77778.33% 77.76% 0.57% 13 2013 2014128 2013 3373463563615096552262526047 2013 -4.86% -4.64% 500 -1.13% 700 -1.62% +18.13% +8.52% +8.13% +6.35% +5.75% -21.49% -10.88% -10.84% -8.20% -7.92% -7.84% -7.03% / / / 2013 TMT 12013 22013 2013 6.29% 0.31% 0.25% -1.94% -1.81% -1.17% -1.08% 14 20140127 2014128 A TMT 6.37% 5005.74% 501.79% +10.01% +10.00% +8.36% 0.35% 2.00% “ ” 3003020.1 0.831.39% 0.83% +0.40% +0.72% 3006% 21 1843% 6020117220226 400 12.2546.8 51.4 0.27% 1.00% ETFETFETF -1.59 -1.1818.1 39.3 -55.4 -31.2 15 20141 2014129 3201312894.22 3.035.68% 20083 1.2261.18% 201380.42% 1.03% 185239.8538.69% 2500 201411525004900 A A 201211620141278.73% 1.82% 20140.52% 2.14% 16 1 2014129 20136 20141152500 “ ” “ ” “ ” 1 APP 17 20141 2014130 1 2 35 “ ” 122013125,460 8.6% 50.1% 5.237.03% 82.6% 50,66040.8201245% 12 12.2614.3% 8 57.7% 65.8% 11890 201312136 4.91% 5.50% 5.65% 45bp 47bp 35bp 11 4413 78bp 54bp 2 12 18 —— 2014127 2013 2013 2013 32.1% 33.4% 33.1% —— NAVEPSPE ( ) 20122013E 2014E 2015E 20122013E 2014E 2015E 6.208.190.760.910.951.498.26.86.54.2 A 7.7911.81.141.471.791.966.85.34.44.0 8.1818.571.181.511.912.386.95.44.33.4 19.1732.421.932.523.634.489.97.65.34.3 A 5.0610.670.530.590.841.079.58.66.04.7 4.5612.530.720.861.291.616.35.33.52.8 5.0111.180.750.900.921.226.75.65.44.1 7.8113.620.881.161.461.518.96.75.35.2 10.4713.761.151.491.982.699.17.05.33.9 6.707.450.711.120.770.959.46.08.77.1 7.1313.000.941.381.551.817.65.24.63.9 2.655.330.190.280.360.3913.99.57.46.8 Wind 2014124 19 —— 2014127 122 TESLAMotors Model S 73.4 “ ” CEOElon Musk Model S 25% 17% Model S 3.5~4.0L 25%~40% Model S 0% Model S 1 8001122 10039 Model S 20141500 201410-122015 Musk 30% 20132.2 20144 Model S 1 50% 2013 1119 “ ” 1 “ + ” 2 7 12 34 + 56 7 Model S TESLA 20 —— 2014127 EPS 0.020.020.010.010.01 2014 EPSP/E 13Q3 PB 14E 12A 13E 14E 15E 12A 13E 14E 15E 4.700.410.550.560.6311.48.58.47.51.34.7% 4.100.160.460.570.6826.49.07.16.01.63.3% 4.930.420.790.740.7711.86.26.76.41.18.0% 3.480.350.480.450.4710.07.27.77.41.24.2% 4.290.340.540.510.5112.57.98.48.40.95.0% 4.290.350.540.560.6311.87.97.77.41.24.7% Wind 2014124 21 —— 2014127 2014 2020 “ ” 201312.9% “ ” 2014 2020 ST EPSP/E 13Q3 PB 14E 12A 13E 14E 15E 12A 13E 14E 15E 4.700.410.550.560.6311.48.58.47.51.34.7% 4.100.160.460.570.6826.49.07.16.01.63.3% 10.360.210.661.181.4550.015.88.87.12.11.9% 3.300.330.370.400.449.99.08.37.51.25.0% 2.310.290.360.400.437.96.45.85.41.17.0% 3.890.300.290.350.4812.913.311.08.11.22.6% 31.241.011.171.271.6130.926.724.619.44.215.4% *ST 20.450.360.510.690.9756.840.129.621.1 n.a. n.a. 4.400.320.480.590.6719.711.28.57.31.34.7% Wind 2014124 22 —— 2014127 20141202014 “20142.080.5% 131012% 6.5% 2.301 ” 2014 GDP 7.5% 2014 5.093.5% 20142.080.5% 59% 2014187914% 2014131012% 30% “ ” “201415 180 ” “ ” 201565 300200 2015 290370 170160174 EPS 0.15 20140.0420150.11136 EPS 0.0720140.0220150.06 MTBE 120142014 +15~31% 2014 2013/14/15 EPS 1.40/1.61/1.79 HPE 15/12/11 “ ” 2013/14/15 EPS 0.62/0.73/0.85 PE 13/11/10 “ ” 2 23 2013 EPS 0.150.172014/150.96/1.25 PE111/20/15 “ ” 3 2013/14/15 EPS 0.59/0.67/0.75 PE8/7/6 “ ” 2013/14/15 EPS 0.67/0.79/0.90 PE11/10/8 “ ” ( ) EPSPE PBPEG 1213E 14E 15E 1213E 14E 15E 23.151.011.401.611.79231714132.70.9 8.430.160.620.730.85531412102.50.5 18.650.100.170.961.2518711019156.40.9 14.100.570.670.891.38252116102.51.0 4.600.540.590.670.7598761.00.7 7.620.630.670.790.9012111081.31.0 2014124 24 —— 2014127 201411 IV 1. 2.3. 4.5.6. MTBE 7. 1960-200011500 / 47500 / CAGR3.6% 402000-201047500 / 49500 / CAGR0.4% 20% 2013-2018 CAGR 28% 210% 20136795061 / 82% 2009-201317 1795 / 402-3 1000 / 20156000 / 2013-2018 CAGR 20% 38% 48% 2013/14/15 EPS 0.59/0.67/0.75 PE 8/7/6 “ ” 13/14/15 EPS 0.67/0.79/0.90 PE 11/10/8 “ ” ( ) EPSPE PBPEG 1213E 14E 15E 1213E 14E 15E 4.600.540.59 0.670.7598760.960.7 7.620.630.67 0.790.9012111081.261.0 Wind 2014124 25 —— 2014127 20137664 +2.0% 7701 +1.7% 5601 +0.6% 2100 +4.8% 12 545 +1.7% 532 +1.1% 377 -1.4% 155 +7.8% 279 -10.5% 2014 12 -6% 14% 8% 6% 6% 2014 “ ” 20135702 +2.2% 5593 +0.5% 3769 +8.3% 1824 -12.5% 12 503 +2% 491 +6% 334 +7% 157 +2% 2014 12 TCL 1% 23% 18% 27% 126 53% +3pct 2014 2014 123 12 “ ” EPSPE x PEG 20122013E 2014E 2015E 20122013E 2014E 2015E 21.801.221.501.702.00181513111.00 48.612.064.415.486.382411980.61 11.270.530.941.011.2021121190.68 5.580.250.330.420.51221713110.83 14.110.570.740.850.96251917151.30 A 9.230.540.720.921.1417131080.60 Wind 2014124 26 —— 2014127 12100/5020131213.6% 11 1.6pcts 15.1% 110.8pct 201313.1% -1.2pcts 1250 / 8.8%/8.3% 3.3/3.5pcts 1-2 / / 20141-2 / 1216.6% 111.8pcts 12 / 11.1%/14.1% 1.7/2.0pcts / 10.9%/21.8% 118.7/18.0pcts 12 1-2 20142014 O2O 2014 22013 PE 11x PB 1.9XNAV 50% 40% 40% A 3.5% H 7.0% O2O/ 2014 O2O ) 201414x K 2 201412x 201410x (O2O/ 14PE9x) A(201411x) 201415x EPSPEPEG 12A 13E 14E 15E 12A 13E 14E 15E 15.190.310.470.650.86493223180.92 17.360.631.001.301.72281713100.56 25.831.171.421.712.16221815120.78 11.340.310.420.550.72372721160.87 21.581.711.932.182.5013111090.81 8.810.680.640.760.9313141290.67 2014124 27 —— 2014127 12420142014 2014 65% 201365.7% “ ” 2014 170020141pct 3090 0.5~0.8pct 20% 5% 3040% 28 —— 2014127 1242014 “ ” “ ” EPCEMC 10 EPC EMC 2014 29 —— 2014127 “ ” “ ” “ ” 4 2015 121259.2% 113 / 1215% PMI 12 “ ” “ ” 66.20% “ ” “ ” 40.50% 32.81% 1~12 14.2% “ ” 2012 “ ” 20% 201340% 2014~2015 2014 201320%~25% 2014 P/E 25~30 “ ” 2 2014~20153 “ ” EPSP/E P/B 20122013E 2014E 2015E 20122013E 2014E 2015E 13.460.330.390.460.63413529213.3 41.050.630.941.351.91654430219.0 33.200.670.921.231.63503627205.1 38.000.290.581.201.611316632245.1 15.180.280.370.530.72544129214.0 33.311.180.951.211.63283528203.4 21.750.330.410.680.80665332274.0 2014124 30 —— 2014128 1212 / 6.2%/8.1% 1.7/0.8pcts 12 Q42014 1221% 201415%~20% 112 / 4.55%/7.61% 1111 / 4.59%/9.88% / 9.91%/20.99% Q4 1 PPLDPE 1 / 10.07%/0.05% 12 +18.82% “ ” / “ ” / “ ” EPSPE PB 1213E 14E 15E 1213E 14E 15E 42.3950.821.312.022.542.97322117144.4 6.208.11 0.030.240.350.452072618141.6 9.8414.250.320.400.570.74312517133.1 21.0718.390.340.450.630.81624733265.8 29.4732.490.450.600.941.19654931258.3 19.26 - 0.400.550.750.99483526195.7 8.129.530.350.480.600.7223171411 1.6 9.0210.840.550.570.640.76161614122.1 19.77 - 0.30 0.480.64 - 664131 - 3.9 6.386.940.150.220.28 - 432923 - 1.9 2014124 31 —— 2014129 2013 2013 “ ” 201324.1 9.6% 20127.4% 2.220138.6 19.8% 1.47.0% 44833.8% 2013 201313.6 5.6% 2013 / 1.7720121.71 2007 / 2013 0.997.2% 20121.62013 14216.5% 2013 17.3% 12.8% 10.4% 9.4% 3.0% 2.0% 20% 10% 24.6% 5.8% 2013 / / 201315% 8% 7% 2% 4% 4% 2013 2013 2 2013 32 —— 2014129 CARG 18.5% 2011 20% 7% 10% GDP A 70% 10 CARG 30% 2011 6-92006-2011 2012 / 80 201239.36% CRS1028.7% CRS1064.3% 08 201330.86% 1 23 + A 2013 P/E 18.4 EPSPE PB 2013E 2014E 2015E 2013E 2014E 2015E 14.170.690.811.132117122.4 Wind 2014124 33 —— 2014130 20131298 2 20144G 2015 50003% 20155000 60%-70% 7 20 5% -10% 20145 A A 4GIDC 34 600284 2014127 “ ” “ ” “ ” 75001500 2012/20134/7 5% 2015/2016 BTBTBOT 18-20 201717 25.12% 2013 BT 2013/2014/2015 EPS 0.70/0.77/0.86 0.77/0.82/0.932012-2015 CAGR 18% 10.122013/2014/2015 PE15/13/12201420 15.50 “ ” / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E 11421208166218832300 YoY% 22.65.837.513.322.1 212359482536594 YoY% -7.369.734.211.110.9 EPS 0.310.520.700.770.86 % 16.148.552.731.032.4 ROE% 8.212.410.410.711.0 PE 3320151312 PB 1.61.71.51.41.3 EV/EBITDA 14733223527 2014124 35 00202920132013 2014127 201333.3% 201320.2% 33.3% 27.73.74 EPS 0.492013 51.8% 98.4% 201352% 50% 15 201420152013 2013 20142015 20142014 20132014 2014 20132014 2014 1.2.2013627 15.52% 2014 2013/14/15 EPS 0.49/0.46/0.540.68/0.73/0.83 7.82201417 PE “ ” / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E 29213477277524962755 YoY% 32.919.1 -20.2 -10.110.4 412561374347405 YoY% 45.636.1 -33.4 -7.216.7 EPS 0.550.740.490.460.54 % 41.245.546.046.046.0 ROE% 20.913.28.17.07.6 2.615.646.106.527.02 PE 139141513 PB 2.71.21.21.11.0 EV/EBITDA 53877 2014124 36 002022 2014128 League Agent (HK) Limited(LAL) LAL 100,571,3451636 LAL 19.44% LAL 91 2014120 LAL 49,259,673 25% 25% 552 LAL 25008 3 LAL 75% 20141216 75% 9 2162016.42 97% 2013 PE27201320% EPS 0.59 PB 7.25 LAL 163 1 2 55 3620162017 2013/2014/2015 EPS 0.59/0.74/0.940.6/0.75/0.942014 PE 25 LAL 4 44.3 2013/2014/20152.88/3.62/4.62 EPS 0.59/0.74/0.94 0.59/0.75/0.942014 PE 25 37 3003352013 2014128 2013 EPS 0.31-0.3420136531-7125 10-20% EPS 0.31-0.340.3813Q1-Q322.4% Q43-5 50% 1242014 800100300 BMF BMF 4.6 BMF 20132014 Q1 2013201450% BGFBOFBGF 201320 BMF BGFBOF - - BMFBGFBOF 2013 2013-15 EPS 0.34/0.53/0.790.38/0.57/0.82 23.00 / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E 365.29410.30419.73722.231,109.03 YoY% 149.8512.932.3072.0753.56 46.1759.3771.68109.90165.89 YoY% 17.7228.6020.7353.3150.95 EPS 0.220.280.340.530.79 ROE% 18.1811.899.3513.2517.78 PE 8868573724 PB 8.03.65.24.74.1 EV/EBITDA 2522372416 2014127 38 002714 2014128 95% 3258175 67.6% 2014 14 2014 9 2700 632 + + 10-15% 2012 + 195 / 2009 -2013 37366192130 6.6780 40100276 16113 + + 2013/2014/20153.044.816.38 -7.86% 58.15% 32.59% 2013/14/15 EPS 1.26/1.99/2.64 PE 201422 PE 4324.07 / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E 1,1341,4912,0163,0063,636 YoY% 155.1731.4435.2049.1320.96 357330304481638 YoY% 316.58 -7.41 -7.8658.1532.59 1.471.361.261.992.64 % 38.5428.0723.2124.1725.53 ROE% 48.9432.1523.7328.0227.94 3.014.245.307.109.44 39 6008672013 2014128 2013190% 220% 2013 EPS 0.200.22 -6461236 1 200023100031000 201310 2013613.21 20132 2013/2014/2015 EPS 0.22/0.30/0.40 0.33/0.46/0.61201448x PE / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E 785992124815351884 YoY% 23% 26% 26% 23% 23% 36463200278368 YoY% 104.1% -83% 220% 39% 32% EPS 0.390.070.220.300.40 ROE% 18% 3% 9% 12% 14% PE 31179674837 PB 5.55.76.35.75.1 EV/EBITDA 1341201613 2014127 40 0023722013 2014129 201330%~40% 20132013 30672 -3303130%-40% 201329% 23% PPR PEPPRPPR 30% PPR 60% PPR PPR 1000 10-15% “ ” PPR 12-182014 PPR PPR/PE 20137 “ ” PPR/PE 13 78012.15 / 14.74 “ - * ” 6 2013/2014/2015 EPS 0.95/1.20/1.500.92/1.15/1.36201416 PE 20 “ ” / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E 1697185721522600 3144 YoY% 35.89.515.920.8 20.9 219236320404 506 YoY% 28.97.635.826.1 25.2 EPS 0.650.700.951.20 1.50 % 34.337.538.738.8 39.0 ROE% 12.813.316.318.3 20.1 PE 2321161210 PB 2.22.12.52.3 2.0 EV/EBITDA 10101087 2014128 41 000778 2014129 (000778) 1+3 300 LNG 1 +3 20142015 2014 320155 2014400020% 26.57MW 6.251 0.37 / 0.29 / 11535% 25912520144176.62 20159467.7720143,460.51 201425760 / 201120122013F 2014F 2015F ( ) 52,52858,81660,55164,629 69,057 YoY% 12.02.96.7 6.9 ( ) 14651266678927 1318 YoY% -13.6 -46.536.8 42.2 EPS( )( ) 0.600.520.280.38 0.54 % 8.06.15.25.9 6.5 ROE% 10.99.24.35.1 6.9 4.804.936.356.64 7.07 PE 910191410 PB 1.11.10.90.8 0.8 EV/EBITDA 23271198 2014-1-27 42 0021002013 2014129 201320132013 30%-50% 50%-70% 1.62-1.84 20% .5 1 TJ 23 4 E252 2-3 + 30% 44% 2013 3062502750 2014 34 40200-2508000 -1 3520-4400 201041,06021.37 / 9.73 / 320137 6.84 / 1.72% 3.17% 65.43% 3 / + 100% 515% 2013 EPS 0.400.3614/15 EPS 0.48/0.71201430 PE 14.40 “ ” 43 601058201350-60% 2014130 201350-60% EPS 0.63-0.67 201210.81% 52.73% 2013 17.22%/59.28% 2012120100% 1200 49% 2014151% 2012 408632012849% 20141 51% 20121.1849.86% 201249% / / 20125320051% 20136 745 /1.5 201357 2013-2015 EPS 0.69/0.81/1.132012 EPS 0.42 20132014-201527% 10-152014 192014 PE 15.392013/14/15 PE23/19/15.5 “ ” / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E 6390 707569349202 11776 YoY % 58% 11% -2% 33% 28% 105 160261361 505 YoY % -7% 52% 63% 39% 40% 0.32 0.420.690.81 1.13 % 6.8% 9.8% 11.1% 12.1% 12.1% % 6% 8% 12% 15% 18% 4434211712 2.91 2.732.412.44 2.04 2014124 44 002051 2014130 2528321.31% 9. 1/3201319% 3 2016/2017/20183 / / 2015/2016/2017 201319% 88% 1 2 3 “ ” 2013/2014/2015 EPS 1.13/1.30/1.60 1.2/1.45/1.8717.192013/2014/2015 PE 15/13/11 2013-2015 CAGR 20% 20142026 “ ” / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E 7175 10154916810799 12814 YoY % 41.9 41.5 -9.717.8 18.7 463 635720837 1035 YoY% 27.4 37.113.416.3 23.6 0.73 1.001.131.30 1.60 % 12.8 14.4 14.815.415.6 % 18.4 15.0 15.115.416.8 PE 24 17151311 PB 3.0 2.6 2.32.01.8 Wind 2014129 45 0025702014 2014127 20141 117 18 3 201253.5201330.59 62.56% 20% + 20 -2570%-75% OPO + 2013 1 2014 “ ” 2013 75%-20% 10% “ ” “ ” 1-2 “ ” 14 “ ” “ ” “ ” “ ” “ ” 201452013 32014 46 3003352014 2014127 1242014 “ ” 800 100 “ ” 2015 10005005000250 2014200800 80 “ ” 20101500 70% 2010300 4.6 BMF 2013912 BMF 2013 1.332014 BMFBGFBOF 2013-15 EPS 0.38/0.57/0.82 CAGR 43% 23.0 “ ” / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E 365.29410.30452.22766.321,125.79 YoY % 149.8512.9310.2169.4646.91 46.1759.3778.65119.11171.59 YoY% 17.7228.6032.4651.4444.06 0.220.280.380.570.82 EPS - - 0.390.560.77 % 31.0331.0331.3432.8533.37 % 18.1811.8910.2114.1818.08 PE 8868523424 PB 8.03.65.14.64.0 EV/EBITDA 2319302014 Wind 2014124 EPSWind 47 601808 2014127 2014 2014201490% 201470-802014 10% 201415-31% 2014 201320148 20142014 201410% Capex 15-31% 2-42014-2015 2013/14/15 EPS 1.40/1.61/1.79 H PE 16/14/1329201418 “ ” / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E ( ) 18,90622,62928,56234,86636,818 YoY% 19.726.222.15.6 ( ) 4,0394,5596,2977,6908,534 YoY% 12.938.122.111.0 EPS ( ) 0.901.011.401.611.79 % 31.829.531.831.532.5 ROE% 6.37.28.410.111.6 PE 14.214.216.815.915.4 PB 1.410.191.591.922.33 EV/EBITDA 2623171413 48 600859 & 2014127 201310%/ Q4 / / / 2013 1.32014 / 2014 10% 10% 2013/2014/2015 19.03%/19.10%/18.95% 1629146 / / / 10 / / + 2014 / / 32015 18 /14 /3 201360~65 / O2O 2014H1 , / wifi /APP / / RNAV28.5 2013 + 2.0pcts 3.6% 6% 20141pct 1420% 35.725% RNAV 28.50 / “ ” 2013-2015 EPS 1.50/1.76/2.1120123 CAGR13.2% RNAV 28.5 / + O2O , 23~27 (201413~15XPE 20149X~12X) “ ” / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E 1676118264206742313226475 YoY% 20.29.013.211.914.4 583673692815975 YoY% 54.915.62.817.819.6 EPS 1.261.451.501.762.11 % 18.7 19.3 19.0 19.1 18.9 ROE% 10.9 11.4 10.8 11.7 12.7 PE 1311 11 98 PB 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 EV/EBITDA 45555 2014124 49 300090 2014127 BOT 1,200 / 700 / 2011230 “ ” 2015 1,00018% 10025% 2015 50% 1,100600 / 2014~20151,200 / 620700 / 3.51830 9.51.4 EPS 0.48 1~210,650 / 2014~2015 “ ” 2013~2015 EPS 0.58/1.20/1.61 P/E 66/32/24 201435 P/E 42.0 “ ” / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E ( ) 6658491,4352,634 3,866 YoY% 56.827.669.183.5 46.8 ( ) 7284170353 474 YoY% 35.216.1102.8107.6 34.2 EPS( )( ) 0.250.290.581.20 1.61 ROE% 7.78.210.017.2 18.8 PE 155133663224 PB 10.39.56.65.4 4.4 2014124 50 3001442013 2014128 1272013201329,502.78 -33,350.9715%-30% 20.5%-119.3% 2013 EPS 0.53-0.60201329,502.78 -33,350.97 EPS 0.53-0.6015%-30% 38002013 19%-36% 201320.5%-119.3% 201329550 EPS 0.53 2013 10%-20% 30% 2013 925 2000-3000 6-792 50% 2014 2014 2014121 35% 5 201473D 20132016 EPS 0.10 51 121520% 2014-2015 EPS 0.68/0.8921.83201432 PE / 201120122013F 2014F 2015F ( ) 505 586641853 1062 YoY% 13.4 16.29.433.0 24.5 ( ) 222 257295382 496 YoY% 36.0 15.415.229.2 29.8 EPS( )( ) 0.40 0.460.530.68 0.89 % 75.2 69.770.974.6 76.7 ROE% 7.7 8.29.511.3 13.3 PE 5548413225 PB 4.5 4.23.93.6 3.3 EV/EBITDA 2624221815 wind 2014127 52 3002512013 2014128 201412720132013 31,02234,1240%-10% 10 1.01010 2013 31,02234,1240%-10% 201395 101.01010 20146,408.8545 8324.7745 II 131112 2013 “ ” “ ” 2013/2014/2015 EPS 0.71/1.00/1.25 PE 69/49/39 “ ” / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E 697.931,033.861,447.401,953.992,540.18 YoY% 45.5248.1340.0035.0030.00 175.80310.22357.14506.17633.62 YoY% 55.8276.4715.1341.7325.18 EPS 0.350.610.711.001.25 ROE% 9.8315.6015.6118.7719.74 PE 14280704939 PB 17.5015.7313.6811.609.75 EV/EBITDA 147.9285.7068.3147.4937.63 2014127 53 3003152013 2014128 201412720132013 14,402.5016,048.5075%-95% “ + ” 201314,402.50 16,048.5075%-95% EPS 0.20-0.230.20 / 2013 2014 “ + ” 2014115 IMAX 212 Android iOS 2014 2013/2014/2015 EPS 0.22/0.70/0.85 36.90 PE 168/53/43 “ ” / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E 183.64 225.36 450.73 1,352.18 1,930.24 YoY% 56.55 22.72 100.00 200.00 42.75 55.69 82.30 183.94 573.34 698.41 YoY% 34.72 47.79 123.50 211.70 21.81 EPS 0.07 0.10 0.22 0.70 0.85 ROE% 24.88 9.33 4.16 17.09 19.20 PE 5433671685343 PB 97.21 24.68 4.92 6.49 5.98 EV/EBITDA 357.52 290.01 148.26 37.83 30.13 2014127 54 3000272013 2014128 201412720132013 63,550.9068,439.43160%-180% 201363,550.90 68,439.43160%-180% EPS 0.53-0.57 / 0.50 / 301/4 20142014 116 126117300 12013 201311 1 7 113000 2013-2015 EPS 0.5/0.68/0.830.372013-2015 PE 61/45/38 “ ” / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E 892.381,386.40 1,912.64 2,582.06 3,356.68 YoY% -16.73 55.36 37.96 35.00 30.00 202.90 244.43 600.41 820.35 970.53 YoY% 35.99 20.47 145.64 36.63 18.31 EPS 0.17 0.20 0.50 0.68 0.80 ROE% 12.03 11.50 26.97 28.08 26.19 PE 179 150 61 45 38 PB 10.06 8.08 7.72 5.88 4.64 EV/EBITDA 68.46 55.69 28.36 17.79 14.47 2014128 55 300104 2014129 2014128 “ ” “ ” 2014 NBACBA 1 2 TV Netflix Amazon 3 “ + + + ” “ + + + ” TV 2013-2015 EPS 0.34/0.60/0.8451.102013/14/15 PE 150/85/61 56 3000582013 2014130 20141292013201341,241 45,95475%-95% 201341,241 45,95475% 95% EPS 0.890.990.90 / 2013 “ ” “ ” 2013 Huntsworth We are very social 2014 “ + ” + 2013/14/15 EPS 0.9/1.35/1.764.36 2013/14/15 PE 71/48/38 “ ” / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E 1,266.062,175.383,589.374,845.656,299.35 YoY% 155.4071.8265.0035.0030.00 121.08235.66421.58629.49790.56 YoY% 100.5494.6478.8949.3225.59 EPS 0.310.510.901.351.70 ROE% 13.6216.2320.9022.9721.54 PE 207127714838 PB 8.366.144.423.252.43 EV/EBITDA 57.8326.8414.179.347.25 2014129 57 600323 2014130 100% 2014~20166,844.2310,504.6916,379.95 30% 2014~201612,966.8613,124.7313,244.62 2011~2012 20131120144 2013 20145% 63.47 / 201225,859201443,06629% . 2012~20142014 3,760 20142014~2016 12,96813,12513,245 “ ” 2013~20150.39/0.46/0.63 2014 P/E 34/29/212014 2015 201525 P/E 15.8 “ ” / 201120122013E 2014E 2015E ( ) 748 8859552,806 3,415 YoY% 18.47.9193.8 21.7 ( ) 150 190227369 505 YoY% 0.3 26.8 19.2 62.5 36.9 EPS( )( ) 0.26 0.330.390.46 0.63 ROE% 9.3 8.49.48.1 10.3 PE 5140342921 PB 2.7 3.43.22.3 2.2 2014129 2014130 S1010510120003 S1010511080003 S1010510120023 S1010510120047 S1010510120004 S1010512060002 S1010511110001 S1010512070001 S1010513020001 S1010513080005 S1010513080003 S1010510120056 S1010510120064 S1010513060001 S1010510120071 S1010510120066 S1010511030001 S1010513110002 S1010512070002 S1010512010001 S1010513070003 S1010510120052 S1010513080006 S1010510120057 S1010512080008 S1010510120038 S1010513080004 S1010510120044 S1010512020002 S1010512120001 S1010510120001 S1010510120059 S1010510120026 S1010510120019 S1010512080001 S1010510120063 S1010510120058 S1010511120001 S1010513050001 S1010510120067 S1010513110005 S1010513110001 S1010511080001 S1010510120025 S1010510120042 S1010512050004 S1010510120048 S1010512080007 S1010510120051 S1010510120022 S1010512090007 S1010511040003 S1010511090002 S1010512050002 S1010512080009 S1010511020001 S1010513080002 S1010510120029 S1010511080005 S1010512100001 S1010513110004 S1010513110003 S1010511080002 S1010512090004 S1010512090006 S1010512080004 S1010511090003 S1010512080002 S1010510120041 S1010512080011 S1010513070002 S1010512060001 S1010513070005 S1010511080004 S1010512100002 S1010513080007 S1010510120062 S1010513080001 S1010512040002 S1010513060002 S1010513110006 S1010513120001 Analyst Certification i ii The analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. / ( ) (1) (2) / / 2014 1 66 300 2 6 300 30020% 3005% 20% 300 -10% 5% 30010% 30010% 300 -10% 10% 30010% 48 100125 1568 22200122 8 518048 1 26 Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S. - This report has been produced in its entirety by CITICSecurities Limited Company (“CITICSecurities”, regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Securities Business License Number: Z20374000). This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a) (2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to “major U.S. institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder. Z20374000193415a-6(a) (2) 15a-6

推荐给朋友: 收藏    |      
尊敬的用户您好!
         为了让您更全面、更快捷、更深度的使用本服务,请您"立即下载" 安装《慧博智能策略终端
         使用终端不仅可以免费查阅各大机构的研究报告,第一手的投资资讯,还提供大量研报加工数据,盈利预测数据,历史财务数据,宏观经济数据,以及宏观及行业研究思路,公司研究方法,可多角度观测市场,用更多维度的视点辅助投资者作出投资决策。
         目前本终端广泛应用于券商,公募基金,私募基金,保险,银行理财,信托,QFII,上市公司战略部,资产管理公司,投资咨询公司,VC/PE等。
慧博投资分析手机版 手机扫码轻松下载