当前位置:首页 > 研报详细页

国泰君安-今晨焦点-210920

研报作者: 来自:国泰君安 时间:2021-09-22 16:02:24
  • 股票名称
  • 股票代码
  • 研报类型
    (PDF)
  • 发布者
    wa***89
  • 研报出处
    国泰君安
  • 研报页数
    7 页
  • 推荐评级
  • 研报大小
    514 KB
研究报告内容

See the last page for disclaimer E q u it y R e s e a rc h E q u it y R e s e a rc h R e p o rt 证券 研究 报告 M o rn in g R e s e a rc h F o c u s 股票研究今晨焦点证券研究报告 Morning Research Focus Research Department 20 September 2021 Table of Contents 目录 News Focus 新闻焦点 Weekly Overview and Trading Focus 上周回顾和本周交易提示 Upcoming key economic data and events 即将公布的重要经济数据和事件 Industry and Company Focus行业和公司焦点 HKEx (00388 HK): Publishing Consultation Paper on Special Purpose Acquisition Companies 香港交易所(00388 HK):刊发有关特殊目的收购公司咨询文件 Latest Reports 最新报告摘要 Nil. Appendices:Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附:行业和公司焦点,最新报告摘要中文版。

HSIPerformance HSCEIPerformance Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Previous Trading Day 前一交易日 Intraday Change 单日涨跌 HK$ m 百万港元 RMB m 百万人民币 HSIIndex 恒生指数 24,920.761.03% Daily Turnover 总成交额 193,831 Mainland China Daily Turnover 内地总成交额 1,343,162 HSCEIIndex 国企指数 8,940.471.53% Stock Connect Net Inflow 互联互通净流入 0 Market Cap (SSE) 沪市市值 45,514,500 HSTECHIndex 恒生科技指数 6,452.193.52% Market Cap (HKEx) 港股市值 44,426,600 Market Cap (SZSE) 深市市值 37,237,500 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 35,000 Sep/20 Dec/20 Mar/21 Jun/21 Sep/21 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Sep/20 Dec/20 Mar/21 Jun/21 Sep/21 Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer 资料来源:国泰君安国际,Bloomberg。

Note: the market capital value of HKEx, SSE, SZSE was recorded as at Sep 16. News Focus新闻焦点 Market News市场新闻 European Central Bank policy makers signaled that they see euro-area inflation potentially exceeding forecasts as the economy recovers and supply bottlenecks driving up input prices. 欧洲央行决策者表示,随着经济复苏和供应瓶颈推高输入价格,欧元区通胀可能会超出预期。

The U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen renewed her call for Congress to raise or suspend the U.S. debt ceiling, saying the government will otherwise run out of money in October. 美国财长耶伦再次呼吁国会提高或暂停债务上限,并警告称联邦政府可能在10月份耗尽资金。

France recalled its ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia in a diplomatic slap intended to convey its anger over a deal forged in secrecy that saw Paris lose a multi billion dollar submarine contract. 法国召回了其驻美国和澳大利亚的大使,旨在表达其对美澳秘密达成协议的愤怒。

该协议导致法国失去了价值数十 亿美元的潜艇合同。

Weekly Overview and Trading Focus上周回顾和本周交易提示 Analyst: Andy Huang分析员:黄凯鸿 Overview of last week 上周回顾 Last week, the Hong Kong Hang Seng index decreased as liquidity crisis at Evergrande and a public consultation in the gaming sectors weighed on the market. China Evergrande announced on September 14 that it expected contract sales to continue to fall sharply in September, and subsequently the Evergrande liquidity concerns weighed on the property sector. Gaming stocks fell on fears of tighter regulation as Macao launched a public consultation on its legal regime for open gaming. The latest China macro data showed that retail sales and industrial production both grew at a slower pace than market expectations. Overseas, Democrats in the USHouse of Representatives on September 13 proposed a series of tax increases for corporations and the wealthy to fund investments in social security and climate policies. The U.K. reiterated on September 14 that it would unilaterally suspend the Northern Ireland Protocol if the EU does not budge on renegotiate to resolve implementation issues. USCPI rose 5.3% YoY in August, below market expectations. US retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.7% MoM in August, sharply beating market expectation while the previous value was revised down to a 1.8% drop. Eurozone HICP growth accelerated to 3.0% YoY in August. Overall for a week, the Hang Seng index Please subscribe GTJAIResearch Wechat subscription account and service account. Wechat subscription account ID:国泰君安国际研究部 Wechat service account ID:国泰君安国际策略研究Please scan the QR codes on the right-hand side. Research Report Database: (1) – “Research” – “Focus: Company”/ “Research Highlights” (2) Bloomberg Report Page: RESPGJIR or NHGTJ 欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部微信公众号及服务号。

公众号账号:国泰君安国际研究部 服务号账号:国泰君安国际策略研究 研究报告库:(1) – “研究报告” – “公司点评”/“专题研究” (2) Bloomberg报告页面:RESPGJIR或NHGTJ Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer decreased 4.90% WoW to 24,921, the Hang Seng China Enterprises index decreased 4.76% WoW to 8,940, and the Hang Seng Tech index decreased 4.39% WoW to 6,452. Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.07% WoW to 34,585. NASDAQComposite index decreased 0.47% WoW to 15,044 and the S&P 500 index decreased 0.57% WoW to 4,433. The latest China macro data missed market expectations. The upgrading industry supervision may be beneficial for the long-term development of certain corresponding industries. US inflation showed signs of cooling and retail sales data beat market consensus, raising expectations of Fed policy normalizing. The US government's debt ceiling is expected to be resolved to avoid a default in October. The Fed is likely to taper QE by the end of the year. We expect the Hong Kong stock market to maintain ranged oscillation for the near term. 上周恒大流动性危机与博彩业公开咨询事件拖累香港恒生指数下跌。

中国恒大9月14日表示,预计9月份合同销售将继续 大幅下滑,恒大流动性担忧拖累房地产板块。

随着澳门启动公开博彩业法律制度公开咨询,市场担心监管收紧,博彩业股票 下跌。

最新中国宏观数据显示,零售销售和工业生产增长速度均低于市场预期。

海外方面,美国众议院民主党人9月13日 提出了一系列针对企业和富人的增税计划,为社会保障和气候政策的投资提供资金。

英国9月14再次称,如果欧盟不就重 新谈判以解决执行问题做出让步,英国将单方面暂停《北爱尔兰议定书》。

美国8月CPI同比上涨5.3%,低于市场预期。

美国8月零售销售环比意外增长0.7%,大幅好于市场预期,前值下修至降1.8%。

欧元区8月消费者物价调和指数(HICP) 同比增速加快至3.0%。

总结全周,恒生指数按周累计下跌4.90%至24,921点,国企指数按周累计下跌4.76%至8,940点, 恒生科技指数按周累计下跌4.39%至6,452点。

道琼斯工业平均指数按周累计下跌0.07%至34,585点。

纳斯达克指数按周 累计下跌0.47%至15,044点。

标准普尔500指数按周累计下跌0.57%至4,433。

最新中国宏观数据不及市场预期。

部分行业监管力度升级,利好行业长期发展。

美国通胀速度有放缓迹象,零售销售数据好 于市场预期,市场对美联储政策正常化预期升温。

预计美国政府债务上限将获得解决以避免美债在10月份发生违约。

美联 储大概率在今年年底缩减QE。

我们预计短期港股市场将维持区间震荡形势。

Upcoming key economic data and events即将公布的重要经济数据和事件 Analyst: Andy Huang分析员:黄凯鸿 Date 日期 Country 国家 Data / events 数据/事件 Market Consensus 市场一致预期 Previous Value 前值 Change 变动 21 Sep 9月21日 U.S. 美国 Aug Housing Starts Annualized (SA, '000) 年化新屋开工量(季调,千套) 1,5431,5340.6% 22 Sep 9月22日 U.S. 美国 Aug Existing Home Sales (mn Units) 年化成屋销售量(百万套) 5.86.0 (2.5%) 23 Sep 9月23日 Euro Area 欧元区 Sep Markit Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI SA Markit欧元区制造业采购经理指数 60.361.4 (1.8%) 24 Sep 9月24日 U.S. 美国 Aug New Home Sales Annualized (SA '000) 年化新建住宅销售量(季调,千套) 713.0708.00.7% Note: All the forecasts in the above table are based on market consensus from Bloomberg. 注:上表中所有预测都基于彭博的市场一致预期。

Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Industry and Company Focus HKEx (00388 HK): Publishing Consultation Paper on Special Purpose Acquisition Companies Analyst: Wiley Huang What happened: HKEx’s (00388 HK) subsidiary Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK) published a consultation paper on listing regime for special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) in Hong Kong on September 17. Key summary of the consultation paper includes: 1/the subscription for and trading of a SPAC’s securities would be restricted to professional investors only, which would not apply to the trading of the successor company shares post the De-SPACTransaction,2/each SPAC must have at least one SPAC promoter which is an SFC licensed firm holding at least 10% of the promoter shares,3/successor companies must meet all new listing requirements,4/independent third party investment must constitute at least 15% to 25% of the expected market capitalisation of the successor company, and 5/ De-SPAC transaction should be announced within 24 months, or completed within 36 months. Comments and views: ASPAC is a type of shell company that raises funds through its listing for the purpose of acquiring a business at a later stage (a De-SPACTransaction) within a pre-defined time period after listing. Although the SPAC listing regime in the consultation paper is not the finalized one, we expect the regime to attract issuers with innovative business model from Mainland China and Southeast Asia to list in SEHK. Hence, listing fee in cash segment should see increase in short-term. Meanwhile, cash segment and derivative segment will benefit from average daily turnover increase from SPAC successor companies in the long term. Investment suggestion: Regulations tightening in overseas listing might delay Jumbo IPOs in the second half in the short term. However, we expect HKEx to benefit from ADT increase from Stock Connect Scheme enhancement and the launch of new derivatives. Meanwhile, SPAC listing regime is also expect to benefit ADT improvement. Our target price for HKEx is HK$525.5 with "Accumulate" investment rating. Latest Reports Nil. Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Chinese Translation中文翻译 _chi]行业和公司焦点 香港交易所(00388 HK):刊发有关特殊目的收购公司咨询文件 分析员:黄重钧 事件描述:香港交易所(00388 HK)的子公司香港联交所在9月17日刊发了关于特殊目的收购公司(SPAC) 在香港上市制度的咨询文件。

咨询文件的摘要包括:1/认购及交易SPAC证券将仅限于专业投资者,而在进 行SPAC并购交易后此规定将不适用,2/每个SPAC必须至少有一名SPAC发起人为证监会持牌公司并持有至 少10%的发起人股份,3/继承公司必须符合所有新上市规定,4/独立第三方投资必须至少占继承公司预期市值 的至少15%至25%,以及5/SPAC并购交易应在24个月内公布,或在36个月内完成。

观点评论:SPAC是一种空壳公司,上市筹集资金的目的是为了上市后一段预设期限内收购目标公司的业务 (SPAC并购交易)。

尽管咨询文件中的SPAC上市制度并未最终确定,但我们预计该制度将吸引中国内地和 东南亚具有创新商业模式的发行人在联交所上市。

因此,现货分部的上市费应该会在短期内增加。

同时,现货 分部和衍生品分部将在长期内受益于SPAC继承公司所带来的日均成交额的提升。

投资建议:海外上市监管的收紧或将短期内推迟下半年的大型IPO。

然而,我们预计港交所将受益于互联互通 机制的增强以及新衍生品推出所带来的日均成交额的增加。

同时,SPAC上市制度预计将利好于日均成交额的 提升。

我们对香港交易所的目标价为525.5港元,投资评级为“收集”。

_chi] 最新报告 Nil. Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Research Department研究部 Grace Liu刘 谷Head of Research, Market Strategy, Petrochemicals 主管,市场策略、 石化grace.liu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097516 Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming消费(酒店)、博彩noah.hudson@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976684 Gary Wong黄家玮Environmental Protection, Infrastructure 环保、基建gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092616 Kevin Guo郭 勇Raw Materials, Gas原材料、燃气kevin.guo@gtjas.com (86755) 23976671 Richard Cao曹 柱Banking银行caozhu013592@gtjas.com (86755) 23976870 Jun Zhu朱俊杰Solar, Electric Equipment, Conglomerate 太阳能、电力设备、综合业务junjie.zhu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097592 Toliver Ma马守彰Aviation, Automobiles & Components 航空、汽车toliver.ma@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095317 Jake Wang汪昌江Market Strategy, Wind Energy& others 市场策略、风电及其它wangchangjiang@gtjas.com (86755) 23976675 Wiley Huang黄重钧Insurance保险wiley.huang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095409 Kay Mai麦梓琪Health care医药maiziqi@gtjas.com (86755) 23976685 Danny Law罗沛达Internet (E-commerce)互联网(电子商务) danny.law@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097768 David Feng冯廷帅Machinery, Construction Materials机械、建材david.feng@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092113 Gin Yu余劲同Telecommunication Service & Equipment 电信服务及设备gin.yu@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976686 Jack Liu柳 晨Property房地产chen.liu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092149 Andy Huang黄凯鸿Market Strategy市场策略kaihong.huang@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976702 Jack Wu吴 狄Market Strategy市场策略di.wu@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976718 Peter Shao邵俊樨Petrochemicals, Electricity石化、电力peter.shao@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095464 Kevin Zhuo卓仕凯Shipping & Logistics, Ports航运物流、港口shikai.zhuo@gtjas.com.hk (86755)23976725 Teddy Lin林荣叶Education教育rongye.lin@gtjas.com.hk (86755)23976692 Chunli Zhan詹春立Property房地产james.zhan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097745 Alfred Chen陈 傲Consumer (Food, Catering)消费(食品、餐饮) ao.chen@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976672 Andy Chen陈思超Consumer (Beverage, Household Products) 消费(饮料、日用品) andy.chen@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092665 Alex Bai白 舸Market Strategy市场策略ge.bai@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097202 Peter Huang黄冠雄Consumer (Retailing), Home Appliances 消费(零售)、家电peter.huang@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976748 Ivan Wu吴凱翔Research Assistant研究助理ivan.wu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092649 Esabella Zhao赵舒蔓Research Assistant, Translator研究助理、翻译员zhaoshuman013399@gtjas.com (86755) 23976681 Penny Pan潘凌蕾Secretary, Translator秘书、翻译员penny.pan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092632 Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQComposite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy买入Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate收集Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral中性Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce减持Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell卖出Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQComposite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform跑赢大市Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral中性Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform跑输大市Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. S] DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS (1) Except for SHENZHENINTERNATIONAL (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for GUOTAIJUNANI (01788 HK),JINSHANGBANK (02558 HK),HAITIANANTENNA (08227 HK),XPENG-W (09868 HK),Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with NEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT (00017 HK),SHENZHEN INTERNATIONAL (00152 HK),TSINGTAOBREWERY- HSHARES (00168 HK),SMIHOLDINGSGROUP (00198 HK),WULINGMOTORS (00305 HK),CHINAPETROLEUM & CHEMICAL- HSHARES (00386 HK),IRICOGROUPNEWENERGY (00438 HK),GOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES (00493 HK),TONGCHENG-ELONGHOLDINGSLIMITED (00780 HK),CENTRALCHINAREALESTATE (00832 HK),CIFIHOLDINGS (GROUP) (00884 HK),DONGJIANGENVIRONMENTAL- HSHARES (00895 HK),MODERNLAND (01107 HK),POWERLONGREALESTATE (01238 HK),CHINAZHONGWANG (01333 HK),FINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY (01502 HK),ZGCTECLEASING (01601 HK),YUZHOUGROUP (01628 HK),CHINASOUTHCITY (01668 HK),S-ENJOYSERVICE (01755 HK),COLOURLIFESERVICES (01778 HK),XIAOMICORPORATION (01810 HK),CGNMEIYAPOWER (01811 HK),KWGGROUP (01813 HK),XINYUANPROPERTYMANAGEMENT (01895 HK),CHINARISUNGROUP (01907 HK),BAICMOTOR- HSHARES (01958 HK),CHINASCEGROUP (01966 HK),EVERSUNSHINELIFESTYLESERVICES (01995 HK),REDSUNPROPERTIES (01996 HK),SHANGHAIJINJIANGCAPITAL- HSHARES (02006 HK),SINICHOLDINGS (02103 HK),BANKOF GANSU (02139 HK),SINOPECENGINEERING- HSHARES (02386 HK),ZENGAME (02660 HK),ZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS (02772 HK),RONSHINECHINA (03301 HK),A-LIVING (03319 HK),BANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS- HSHARES (03328 HK),LOGANGROUP (03380 HK),AGILEGROUP (03383 HK),AOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP (03662 HK),HANSOHPHARMACEUTICAL (03692 HK),HUISHANGBANK- H SHARES (03698 HK),CHINAAOYUANPROPERTY (03883 HK),GREENTOWNCHINA (03900 HK),ZHENROPROPERTIES (06158 HK),FRIENDTIMESINC (06820 HK),JD.COM (09618 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are making, or will make a market in the securities in respect of AACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS (02018 HK)/ AIA (01299 HK)/ ALIBABA (09988 HK)/ ALIBABAHEALTH (00241 HK)/ BANKOFCHINA- HSHARES (03988 HK)/ BIDU-SW (09888 HK)/ BOC HONGKONG (02388 HK)/ BYDCOMPANY- HSHARES (01211 HK)/ CHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK- HSHARES (00939 HK)/ CHINALIFE INSURANCE- HSHARES (02628 HK)/ CHINAMOBILE (00941 HK)/ CHINATOWERCORPORATION- HSHARES (00788 HK)/ CNOOC (00883 HK)/ GALAXYENTERTAINMENT (00027 HK)/ GEELYAUTOMOBILE (00175 HK)/ GREATWALLMOTOR- HSHARES (02333 HK)/ HONGKONG EXCHANGESANDCLEARING (00388 HK)/ HSBC (00005 HK)/ INDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA- HSHARES (01398 HK)/ JD.COM (09618 HK)/ LENOVO (00992 HK)/ MEITUANDIANPING (03690 HK)/ NETEASE (09999 HK)/ PINGANINSURANCE- HSHARES (02318 HK)/ SANDSCHINA (01928 HK)/ SINOPHARMGROUP- HSHARES (01099 HK)/ SMIC (00981 HK)/ SUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY (02382 HK)/ TENCENT (00700 HK)/ WUXIBIOLOGICS (02269 HK)/ XIAOMICORPORATION (01810 HK) mentioned in this Research Report. (6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 2021 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza,181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website:

推荐给朋友: 收藏    |      
尊敬的用户您好!
         为了让您更全面、更快捷、更深度的使用本服务,请您"立即下载" 安装《慧博智能策略终端
         使用终端不仅可以免费查阅各大机构的研究报告,第一手的投资资讯,还提供大量研报加工数据,盈利预测数据,历史财务数据,宏观经济数据,以及宏观及行业研究思路,公司研究方法,可多角度观测市场,用更多维度的视点辅助投资者作出投资决策。
         目前本终端广泛应用于券商,公募基金,私募基金,保险,银行理财,信托,QFII,上市公司战略部,资产管理公司,投资咨询公司,VC/PE等。
慧博投资分析手机版 手机扫码轻松下载