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浦发银行研究报告:浦发银行:买入浦发银行 上半年业绩分析-060814

研报作者:GS 来自:GS 时间:2006-08-14 13:36:54
  • 股票名称
    浦发银行
  • 股票代码
    600000
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    (PDF)
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    点*****
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    GS
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研究报告内容

August 14,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1 August 14,2006 ACTION Buy Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Return Potential: 23% 1H2006 results: Strong PPOP growth, rising NPL coverage; Buy Source of opportunity SPDB reported strong audited 1H2006 results. PPOP was up 17% yoy,7% above our estimate; NPAT (IAS) rose 32% yoy,18% below our forecast due to an unexpected NPL provision coverage increase to 158% vs. our 144% estimate. Positive surprises: Stronger-than-expected loan/fee income growth (up 99% yoy). Negative surprises: higher-than-expected operating cost growth; slightly lower-than-expected NIMs, due to still-low money/debt securities yields despite improvement by 47bp qoq in 2Q2006 and 17bp hoh in 1H2006 (China GAAP; +4bp hoh in IFRS). Positive earnings surprises (our 2006E/2007EEPS are 11%/8% above consensus), Citigroup’s potential stake increase and other factors could rerate the stock. Growth Returns * Multiple Volatility Volatility Multiple Returns * Growth Investment Profile: Shanghai Pudong Development Low High Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the disclosure section of this document. 600000.SS Asia Pacific Banks Peer Group Average Catalyst We expect SPDB to gradually rerate on the back of expected robust FY2006 earnings growth, Citigroup’s potential stake increase to 19.9% as early as 1H07, and a strengthened management team from recent outside hires including the Chief Credit Officer, chief treasurer and deputy consumer banking head. We believe strong loan/PPOP growth and rising provision coverage in 1H06 could be sufficient to ease concerns on loan growth deceleration and asset quality in 2H06. We have slightly changed our earnings forecasts by +0.7%, -1.9% and +0.4% in 2006/2007/2008 respectively, by raising fee income growth, loan yields, and cost growth assumptions, and using even more conservative credit cost assumptions of 80bp+ by assuming 150% constant NPL provision coverage. Valuation We have slightly adjusted our 12-month target to Rmb11.40 (from Rmb11.61), based on 2.05X 2007EBPVS (23% potential upside). Fully diluted P/E post a potential 41% EPS dilution from a 700 mn new equity offering and Citigroup stake increase would be an attractive 11.7X in 2007E, vs.16X 2007EP/E for China Merchants Bank (CMB, 600036.SS, Neutral) post its planned H-share offering in 2H2006. Key risks Key risks include macro hard landing/overheating; significant delay/failure of Citigroup stake increase and SPDB capital offering; and earnings disappointments. INVESTMENTLISTMEMBERSHIP Asia Pacific Buy List Coverage View: Attractive China: Banks Key data Current Price (Rmb) 9.26 Price target (Rmb) 11.40 Market cap (Rmb mn / US$ mn) 36,252.9 / 4,545.2 Foreign ownership (%) -- 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E EPS (Rmb) New 0.650.931.121.32 EPS revision (%) 0.00.7 (1.9) 0.4 P/B (X) 2.32.01.71.4 P/E (X) 14.29.98.37.0 Dividend yield (%) 1.42.02.32.7 P/PPOP (X) 4.83.93.12.6 PPOP growth (%) 20.622.827.319.0 Preprovision ROA (%) 1.51.51.61.6 Credit cost (%) 0.80.80.80.9 ROA (%) 0.500.580.580.57 ROE (%) 17.318.321.821.6 Price performance chart 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600 3,800 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (L) FTSEXinhua 600 Index (R) Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute (14.7) (16.4) 5.7 Rel. to FTSEXinhua 600 Index (17.5) (34.9) (25.3) Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 8/11/2006 close. Ning Ma +852-2978-1677 | ning.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Roy Ramos +852-2978-0457 | roy.ramos@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Jennifer Meng +852-2978-0169 | jennifer.meng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not required to take the NASD/NYSE analyst exam. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the text preceding the disclosures. For other important disclosures go to /research/hedge.html. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research August 14,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank: Summary financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08EBalance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E Net interest income 13,099.216,370.920,302.724,154.3 Gross loans 377,222.9446,662.7529,133.8627,200.7 Non-interest income 1,255.11,393.11,869.22,461.6 NPLs 7,444.78,795.310,975.013,777.7 Operating revenue 14,354.317,763.922,171.826,615.9 Loan loss reserves 10,576.613,193.016,462.620,666.5 Non-interest expense (6,834.9) (8,529.0) (10,411.9) (12,621.3) Total interest earning assets 561,179.2674,466.8814,704.8959,325.5 Preprovision oper profits 7,519.49,234.911,759.913,994.6 Other non-interest earning assets 12,343.413,796.314,341.714,949.8 Total provision charge (3,180.2) (3,633.6) (4,469.5) (5,403.9) Total assets 573,522.7688,263.1829,046.6974,275.3 Associates 0.00.00.00.0 Customer deposits 507,437.9614,995.6739,189.6884,463.0 Pretax profit 4,339.25,601.37,290.48,590.7 Total interest-bearing liabilities 545,076.8657,949.0792,137.0943,600.2 Tax (1,781.2) (2,460.6) (2,916.2) (3,436.3) Total equity 15,969.518,326.021,774.825,911.3 Minorities 0.00.00.00.0 Net profit 2,558.03,140.84,374.25,154.4 CAMEL ratios (%) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E C: Tier 1 capital ratio 4.14.24.34.5 Dividends (509.0) (718.3) (836.9) (974.6) C: Equity/loans 4.44.24.24.3 Dividends payout (%) 19.919.719.118.9 C: Equity/assets 2.82.72.62.7 A: NPL ratio 2.02.02.12.2 Earnings growth drivers (%) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08EA: Loan loss reserves/NPLs 142.1150.0150.0150.0 Net interest margin 2.62.62.72.7 E: Net interest margin 2.62.62.72.7 Provision charge/total loans 0.90.80.90.9 E: Non int inc/oper revenues 8.747.848.439.25 YoYGrowth (%) E: Cost-income ratio 47.648.047.047.4 Customer deposits 27.821.220.219.7 E: ROAA 0.500.580.580.57 Loans 21.318.218.318.3 L: Loan/deposit ratio 72.370.569.468.6 Net interest income 24.525.024.019.0 Fee income 13.783.258.546.7 Key CAMELOT assumptions 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E Non-interest income 29.311.034.231.7 GSCAMELOT implied P/B (X) -- -- 2.1 -- Operating revenue 24.923.824.820.0 GSCAMELOT implied P/E (X) -- -- 13.0 -- Operating expenses (29.9) (24.8) (22.1) (21.2) Risk-free rate (%) -- -- -- -- Preprovision operating profit 20.622.827.319.0 Equity risk premium (%) -- -- -- -- Provision charges 1.514.323.020.9 CAMELOT beta (X) -- -- 1.3 -- Pretax profit 39.829.130.217.8 Risk-adjusted cost of equity (%) -- -- -- -- Net profit 30.122.839.317.83-yr adjusted DPSCAGR (%) -- -- 19.4 -- EPS 30.142.819.817.8 Sustainable ROE estimate (%) -- -- 15.8 -- DPS 8.341.116.516.5 LT dividend payout estimate (%) -- -- 30.0 -- Ex-growth bond-equivalent P/B (X) -- -- -- -- Market dimensions 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E No of branches 350.0 -- -- -- Loan portfolio (%) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E No of staff (000) 10,151.0 -- -- -- Commercial & corporate 85.085.683.280.7 Revenues/staff (Rmb) 1,414.1 -- -- -- Mortgages/home loans 12.813.015.217.4 Net profit/staff (Rmb) 252.0 -- -- -- Consumer 15.014.416.819.3 Valuation (current price) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E DuPont analysis (%) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E ROE 17.318.321.821.6 P/E basic (X) 14.29.98.37.0 x leverage 3.12.92.92.9 P/B (X) 2.32.01.71.4 = ROA 0.500.580.580.57 P/PPOP (X) 4.83.93.12.6 Dividend yield (%) 1.42.02.32.7 % of assets 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E Net interest income 2.52.62.72.7 EPS, basic (Rmb) 0.650.931.121.32 Fee income 0.10.10.10.2 EPS, fully-diluted (Rmb) 0.650.931.121.32 Non-interest income 0.20.20.20.3 Operating revenue 2.82.82.93.0 EPS, basic growth (%) 30.142.819.817.8 Operating expenses 1.31.41.41.4 EPS, fully diluted Growth (%) 30.142.819.817.8 Preprovision operating profit 1.51.51.61.6 Loan loss provisions 0.60.60.60.6 BVPS (Rmb) 4.084.685.566.62 Pretax profits 0.80.91.01.0 DPS (Rmb) 0.130.180.210.25 Taxes 0.30.40.40.4 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Analyst Contributors Ning Ma ning.ma@gs.com Roy Ramos roy.ramos@gs.com Jennifer Meng jennifer.meng@gs.com August 14,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3 EXPECTEDNEWSFLOW/EVENTS DATEEVENTCOMMENT 4Q2006 SPDB to issue 700mn new shares We estimate 17.9% EPS dilution but it would be BPVS accretive and provide much-needed capital to fund its growth. We expect 2006E tier ICAR and total CAR to reach c.5.6% and 9.5% respectively if we assume it is offered at 10% below the current share price. As early as in 1H2007 Citigroup may raise its stake in SPDB to a maximum 19.9% from 4.2% now, through private placement at negotiated price This would be a positive rerating catalyst and BVPS accretive for SPDB, despite additional EPS 23.5% dilution. Even if Citigroup were to win its bid for Guangdong Development Bank (GDB) together with its domestic partners, we believe Citigroup may still want to increase its stake in SPDB, given: 1) SPDB’s Yangtze River focus and better fundamentals/franchise than GDB; and 2) previous reports that management of both Citigroup and SPDB have expressed their interest. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of August 10,2006. In summary, Shanghai Pudong’s (SPDB) results are strong, with stronger than expected PPOP growth (up 17% yoy,46% hoh,7% above our estimates), offset by rising NPL provision coverage to 158% despite 0.41% annualized net new NPL formation rates. We believe the strong loan/PPOP growth in 1H2006 and rising provision coverage could be sufficient to ease the concerns on loan growth de- acceleration and asset quality pressure in 2H2006, if China’s economy/loan growth were to slow gradually. Positives: Fee income, loan growth, NPL coverage 1. Strong loan growth, improving loan mix. Loans grew 27% yoy and 14.2% hoh, mainly from corporate loans. Bill discount loans grew only 5.1% hoh, benefiting loan yields (up 37 bp qoq,26 bp hoh,8 bp yoy). We believe SPDB could achieve our FY2006 loan forecast of 18.5% yoy, despite the fact that CBRC may classify SPDB as one of the category III banks due to its high loan growth and low CAR of 8.0% in 1H2006, and requested SPDB to de-accelerate loan growth, according to recent news from Bloomberg. 2. Robust fee income growth (up 99% yoy and 50% hoh), off a low base (only 3.2% of total revenue, vs.10% for CMB), driven from both credit cards/debt cards related fees and corporate banking fees. 3. Rising NPL coverage to 158% from 144% in 2006, which is the key reason for the NPAT shortfall vs. our forecasts, and likely to be a cushion for the potential asset quality pressure if China’s macro slows sharply. Asset quality remains stable, with 0.41% annualized net new NPL formation rates. NPL ratios declined to 1.82% from 2% in 2005, not so surprising given the robust macro in 1H2006. Overdue loan ratio remains stable at 2.15% vs.2.12% in 2005, though the increase of overdue loans by 16% hoh needs to be watched closely (the risks could be partly offset by rising overdue loan coverage to 141%, from 133% in 2005. Negatives: NIM pressure yoy (but up qoq), operating costs 1. NIMs slightly under pressure, but sequentially improving due to China’s lending rate hike in April, and rising money/debt market yields (see Exhibit 1). August 14,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4 We expect 2H2006 yields to recover further on loan repricing, better loan pricing power amid monetary tightening, relatively higher money/debt market yields, slow growth/declining of bill discount loans, and the high level of daily average earning assets after strong loan growth in 1H2006. Exhibit 1: NIMs (China GAAP) down 10bp yoy but up 43bp qoq and 17bp qoq due to rising loan yields/market rates Asset yields and funding costs, quarterly, China GAAP 1Q052Q053Q054Q051Q062Q061H052H051H06 Yields of earning assets 4.59 4.89 4.53 4.10 4.25 4.79 4.66 4.25 4.45 Loans 5.37 5.59 5.33 5.16 5.29 5.67 5.49 5.16 5.42 Interbank assets 2.87 2.70 2.42 2.59 2.59 2.91 2.42 2.63 2.43 Securities investment 2.59 3.94 3.49 1.13 1.67 2.92 3.46 2.04 2.49 Cost of funding 1.92 1.91 1.79 1.83 1.79 1.90 1.87 1.80 1.83 Deposits 1.58 1.50 1.63 1.76 1.66 1.56 1.58 1.61 1.68 Interbank liabilities and debt securities 6.00 5.07 3.69 2.73 4.71 10.0 6.50 3.80 5.53 Loan/deposit spread 3.79 4.08 3.70 3.40 3.63 4.11 3.91 3.55 3.74 Net Interest Margin 2.77 3.08 2.83 2.35 2.55 2.98 2.87 2.55 2.72 Yoy 0.28 0.36 0.11 (0.33) (0.22) (0.10) 0.27 (0.12) (0.15) Sequential (qoq or hoh) 0.09 0.31 (0.25) (0.48) 0.20 0.43 0.20 (0.32) 0.17 Quarterly result (%) Half yearly result (%) Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. 2. Stronger than expected expense growth at 28% yoy (but -4% hoh),7% above our estimates, due to strong growth of staff costs (26% yoy) and SG&As (41% yoy). However, we note overall cost/income ratio was 44.3% in 1H2006, lower than 47.6% in 2005 due to robust revenue growth. Consumer banking: Steady growth off a low base Consumer deposits grew robustly at 48% yoy, and accounted for 14.7% of total deposits vs.13.9% in 2005 and 12.8% in 1H2005. Consumer loans, however, grew 11% yoy and 6% hoh, lower than overall loan growth, which may be due to mortgage prepayments. We note SPDB’s consumer banking product offering has continued to improve after SPDB hired a deputy retail banking head from Citigroup. The cooperation with Citigroup in credit cards showed strong growth off a low base: 0.34mn total cards issued with total revenue of Rmb32 mn, up 560% yoy, which accounted for 0.4% of total revenue (vs.6.5mn cards, estimated 3.4% revenue contribution for CMB). What to watch for: NIM recovery/target NPL coverage ratios; Citigroup stake increase 1. We believe NIM recovery and target NPL provision coverage ratio are two earnings swing factors to watch. We note SPDB could benefit from the continued rise of loans/deposit spreads and market rates as it significantly reduces the average repricing dates of its debt securities to 0.77 years from 0.92 years in 2005. While the 158% NPL overage shows SPDB’s conservative balance sheet and provision policy, and provides much needed cushion for any potential asset quality pressure, it remains to be seen whether August 14,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5 it will continue to rise or not. Our forecast of 80bp+ credit costs for SPDB’s earnings in 2006/2007/2008, based on 150% NPL coverage, vs. typically c.60bp for listed H-share banks, is conservative, in our view. 2. Whether and when Citigroup increases its stake in SPDB to 19.9% from 4.2%, as a significant rerating catalyst. According to SPDB/Citigroup’s cooperation agreement, either SPDB or Citigroup may initiate negotiations for the stake increase by November 2006 and finish the negotiation process within three months; we will monitor the developments closely. A ugust 14,2006 Shanghai Pudong D evelopm ent B ank (600000.SS) G oldm an Sachs G lobal Investm ent R esearch 6 Exhibit 2: SPDB’s 1H2006 results: Better than expected PPOP growth, offset by rising NPL provision coverage 1H 2H 1HEst. Yoy HoHActual As % of 2005200520061H06E growth growth vs. current (RMB mn) (%) (%) Est. (%) 06E est. (%) Income statement Net interest income 6,4956,6047,6017,73817.0 15.1 (1.8) 46 Non-interest income 6016541,04134173.2 59.0 205.3 55 Net fee income 13918427616399.0 49.5 69.0 47 Gross fee income 21630542030294.9 37.7 39.2 45 Fee expense (77) (121) (144) (139) 87.5 19.8 4.2 42 Net trading profits 101665659138553.9 (0.9) 376.5 117 Other non-interest income 361 (195) 10639 (70.8) 168.4 14 Memo: Non-interest income ex-trading profits 500 (11) 381202 (23.7) 88.3 28 Total operating revenue 7,0967,2598,6418,07921.8 19.0 7.0 47 Total operating revenue ex-trading gains 6,9956,5937,9827,94014.1 21.1 0.5 45 Total operating expense 2,9303,9053,7513,49928.0 (3.9) 7.2 44 2,3853,3213,0802,89129.1 (7.3) 6.5 36 Preprovision operating profit 4,1663,3544,8904,58017.4 45.8 6.8 50 Provision charges 2,2239572,2561,2581.5 135.8 79.4 62 Operating profit 1,9422,3972,6343,32235.6 9.9 (20.7) 43 Pretax profits 1,9422,3972,6343,32235.6 9.9 (20.7) 43 Tax 7271,0541,0341,36242.3 (1.9) (24.0) 42 Net profits 1,2151,3431,5991,96031.6 19.1 (18.4) 44 EPS (RMBYuan) 0.310.340.410.5031.6 19.1 (18.4) 1 Balance sheet Total assets 492,452573,523630,232586,96228.0 9.9 7.4 92 Gross loans 339,950377,223430,817403,36726.7 14.2 6.8 96 Non-performing loans 7,3167,4457,8377,9977.1 5.3 (2.0) 89 Loan loss reserves 10,48110,57712,36611,51618.0 16.9 7.4 94 Customer deposits 435,646507,438560,048512,05928.6 10.4 9.4 91 Equity 14,14315,96917,06617,68820.7 6.9 (3.5) 93 Camel ratios Capital adequacy Equity/assets 2.872.782.713.01 (0.2) (0.1) (0.31) Equity/loans 4.164.233.964.39 (0.2) (0.3) (0.42) Asset quality - - NPL ratio 2.15 1.97 1.82 1.98 (0.3) (0.2) (0.16) LLR/NPLs 143.26142.07157.78 144.0014.5 15.7 13.78 New NPL formation rates (net) 0.110.800.410.580.3 (0.4) (0.18) Credit costs 1.310.511.050.62 (0.3) 0.5 0.42 Earnings Net interest margin 2.75 2.49 2.53 2.67 (0.22) 0.05 (0.14) Non-int income/oper revenue 8.479.0212.044.223.6 3.0 7.82 Cost-income ratio 41.2953.8043.4143.312.1 (10.4) 0.10 Preprov operating ROAA 1.761.261.621.58 (0.1) 0.4 0.05 ROA 0.510.500.530.680.0 0.0 (0.14) ROE 17.5017.8319.3623.291.9 1.5 (3.93) Liquidity Loan/deposits 78.0374.3476.9378.77 (1.1) 2.6 (1.85) Averages Average assets 474,101532,987601,877580,24227.0 12.9 3.73 Average equity 13,89215,05616,51816,82918.9 9.7 (1.85) Half year results Memo: Operating expense ex-business tax/supervision fee Note YoY growth 20052006E (%) 13,09916,37125.0 Slightly less than expected due to some margin pressure, despite higher than expected loan growth 1,2551,90451.7 Strong fee income growth and securities trading income 32359283.2 52193980.3 Robust growth off a low base; credit cards related income (incl. annual fee) was Rmb25.6 mn,6% of gross fee income. (198) (347) 75.6 766564 (26.4) Strong securities trading income on short term securities, post hiring the Chief Treasury from a foreign bank 166748350.7 4891,340174.0 14,35418,27527.3 7% higher than expected on strong non-interest income growth offsetting less than expected NII 13,58817,71130.3 6,8358,52924.8 Higher than expected due to salary and admin expenses growth 6,8358,52924.8 7,5199,74629.6 Strong PPOP growth 3,1803,63414.3 Higher than expected; due to rising NPL provision coverage to 158%, vs. 142% in 2005 4,3396,11240.9 4,3396,11240.9 1,7812,46138.1 2,5583,65242.8 Lower than expected mainly due to high provision charges 0.650.9342.8 573,523688,26320.0 377,223446,66318.4 Faster than expected; almost achieved GSFY06E targets 7,4458,79518.1 10,57713,19324.7 507,438614,99621.2 15,96918,32614.8 2.782.66 (0.1) 4.234.10 (0.1) 1.97 1.97 (0.00) Lower than expected 142.1150.07.9 0.260.600.35 Lower than expected 0.840.81 (0.03) 2.56 2.60 0.04 Slight NIM pressure mainly due to still low money/debts yields; adjusted NIM is 2.61% after adding the securities trading gains 8.710.41.7 47.646.7 (0.9) In line with expectation as revenue growth offsets expense growth 1.461.540.1 0.500.580.08 17.321.34.0 74.372.6 (1.7) 514,637630,89322.6 14,80517,14815.8 Annual results Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. August 14,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 7 August 14,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 8 RegAC I, Ning Ma, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Investment profile The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility adjusted for dividends. Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets. Disclosures Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s) Ning Ma: Asia Pacific Financials. Asia Pacific Financials: Bangkok Bank, Bank of Ayudhya, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, Bank of East Asia, BOCHong Kong (Holdings), Bursa Malaysia, Cathay Financial, China Construction Bank, China Life Insurance Company, China Merchants Bank, Chinatrust Financial Holdings, CITICInt'l Financial, Cosmos Bank, Daegu Bank, Dah Sing Banking Group, Dah Sing Financial Holdings, DBSGroup Holdings, Fubon Financial Holdings, Hana Financial Group, Hang Seng Bank, Hong Kong Exchanges, HSBCHoldings, Hua Xia Bank, ICBC (Asia), Kasikornbank, Kookmin Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Liu Chong Hing Bank, Mega Financial Holdings, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., PICCProperty and Casualty, Ping An Insurance Group, Polaris Securities, Pusan Bank, Samsung Fire & Marine, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Shenzhen Development Bank, Shin Kong Financial Holdings, Shinhan Financial Group, Siam Commercial Bank, Singapore Exchange, SinoPac Holdings, Standard Chartered Bank, Taishin Financial Holdings, Thanachart Capital, TISCOBank, United Overseas Bank, Wing Hang Bank, Wing Lung Bank, Woori Finance Holdings, Yuanta Core Pacific. Company-specific regulatory disclosures The following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, "Goldman Sachs") and companies covered by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs and referred to in this research. Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: China Merchants Bank (Rmb7.66) and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (Rmb9.26) Goldman Sachs has received compensation for non-investment banking services in the past 12 months: China Merchants Bank (Rmb7.66) Goldman Sachs had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months with: China Merchants Bank (Rmb7.66) and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (Rmb9.26) Goldman Sachs had a non-securities services client relationship during the past 12 months with: China Merchants Bank (Rmb7.66) and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (Rmb9.26) Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell Global 27% 59% 14% 57% 49% 45% August 14,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 9 As of July 1,2006, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 2,129 equity securities. Prior to June 24,2006, Goldman Sachs utilized a relative rating system of Outperform, In-Line and Underperform, which, for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules, equated to Buy, Hold and Sell. As of June 24,2006, Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure. See 'Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions' below. Price target and rating history chart(s) Regulatory disclosures Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co- managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; market making and/or specialist role. The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the Goldman Sachs website at . Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and regulations. Australia: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. Canada: Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. has approved of, and agreed to take responsibility for, this research in Canada if and to the extent it relates to equity securities of Canadian issuers. Analysts may conduct site visits but are prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement by the company of travel expenses for such visits. Hong Kong: Further information on the securities of covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Japan: See company-specific disclosures as to any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance Company. Korea: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. Singapore: Further information on the covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W). United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as private customers in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Services Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request. European Union: Disclosure information in relation to Article 4 (1) (d) and Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Directive 2003/126/EC is available at Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages various regional Investment Lists to a global guideline of 25%-35% of stocks as Buy and 10%-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return. Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership. Coverage groups and views: A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at . The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 ASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJ 2003200420052006 6 8 10 12 14 16 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,250 3,500 3,750 IL Sep 27 OP Nov 3 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history Currency: Chinese Renminbi Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; Reuters for daily closing prices as of 07/01/06. Rating Price target Price target at removal FTSEXinhua 600 Index; pricing by FactSet Covered by Ning Ma, as of Sep 13,2004 Not covered by current analyst 7.69 6.93 7.47 8.35 10.75 12.70 15.17 11.67 11.61 St oc k Pr ic e In de x Pr ic e New equity ratings, were adopted on June 24, 2006 but are not yet reflected above. The new Buy, Neutral and Sell are equivalent to OP, IL and U. The price targets shown should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, which may or may not have included price targets, as well as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets. August 14,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 10 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price, if any, have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. Ratings, coverage views and related definitions prior to June 26,2006 Our rating system requires that analysts rank order the stocks in their coverage groups and assign one of three investment ratings (see definitions below) within a ratings distribution guideline of no more than 25% of the stocks should be rated Outperform and no fewer than 10% rated Underperform. The analyst assigns one of three coverage views (see definitions below), which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and valuation. Each coverage group, listing all stocks covered in that group, is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at . Definitions Outperform (OP). We expect this stock to outperform the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. In-Line (IL). We expect this stock to perform in line with the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. Underperform (U). We expect this stock to underperform the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. Coverage views: Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Current Investment List (CIL). We expect stocks on this list to provide an absolute total return of approximately 15%-20% over the next 12 months. We only assign this designation to stocks rated Outperform. We require a 12-month price target for stocks with this designation. Each stock on the CIL will automatically come off the list after 90 days unless renewed by the covering analyst and the relevant Regional Investment Review Committee. Global product; distributing entities The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs, and pursuant to certain contractual arrangements, on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty Ltd (ABN 21006797897) on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Canada by Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. regarding Canadian equities and by Goldman Sachs & Co. (all other research); in Germany by Goldman Sachs & Co. oHG; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs JBWere (NZ) Limited on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union. European Union: Goldman Sachs International, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the European Union and United Kingdom; Goldman, Sachs & Co. oHG, regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, may also be distributing research in Germany. General disclosures in addition to specific disclosures required by certain jurisdictions This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than some industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options and warrants) thereof of covered companies referred to in this research. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Current options disclosure documents are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at or from Research Compliance, One New York Plaza, New York, NY 10004. Copyright 2006 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

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