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浦发银行研究报告:浦发银行:上半年净利润符合预期-060712

研报作者:马宁 来自:GS 时间:2006-07-12 08:52:39
  • 股票名称
    浦发银行
  • 股票代码
    600000
  • 研报类型
    (PDF)
  • 发布者
    lj***ng
  • 研报出处
    GS
  • 研报页数
  • 推荐评级
  • 研报大小
    106 KB
研究报告内容

July 12,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1 July 12,2006 ACTION Buy Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Return Potential: 20% 1H2006 NPAT in line; affirm Buy Source of opportunity SPDB reported headline 1H2006 NPAT of Rmb1.59 bn (China GAAP), up 31% yoy following a change in accounting policy for securities investment that revised up 1H2005 NPAT (China GAAP) by 10%. We maintain our FY2006 estimates (IFRS) of Rmb3.63 bn, and reiterate our Buy rating on SPDB due to strong earnings growth, a potential valuation re-rating due to the potential Citigroup stake increase to 19.9%, and management improvements due to key outside hires such as Chief Credit Officer, Chief Treasury, and Deputy Head of Consumer banking. Growth Returns * Multiple Volatility Volatility Multiple Returns * Growth Investment Profile: Shanghai Pudong Development Low High Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the disclosure section of this document. 600000.SS Asia Pacific Banks Peer Group Average Catalyst We believe SPDB catalysts include: (1) strong 1H2006/3Q2006 results; and (2) potential Citigroup stake increase to 19.9% as early as 1H2007. We wait for the detailed 1H2006 results on August 11 to confirm the strong earnings growth outlook for SPDB in 2006, driven by strong pre-provision profit growth and normalization of credit costs if provision coverage does not increase beyond 149%. Reported PPOP excluding investment income and business tax (China GAAP) in 1H2006 grew 18% yoy, in line with our estimate (IFRS) of about 19%. Although 1H2006 NPAT (China GAAP) represents 44% of our 2006ENPAT (IFRS, Rmb1.96 bn for 1H2006), we believe SPDB’s 2H2006 NPAT could be higher than 1H2006, given higher earnings assets and NIM recovery in 2H2006 because of loan repricing post the rate hike in April and the recovery of money market yields. Valuation Our 12-month price target is Rmb11.61, based on 2.05X 2007EBVPS. SPDB now trades at a reasonable 14.7X 2006 adjusted P/E and 12X 2007 adjusted P/E after taking into account maximum 41% EPS dilution from the potential capital offering of 700mn shares and private placement to Citigroup. Key risks Key risks include a macro hard landing, earnings missing estimates, and significant delay in, or cancellation of, Citigroup’s stake increase. INVESTMENTLISTMEMBERSHIP Asia Pacific Buy List Coverage View: Attractive China: Banks Key data Current Price (Rmb) 9.76 Price target (Rmb) 11.61 Market cap (Rmb mn / US$ mn) 38,210.4 / 4,782.3 Foreign ownership (%) -- 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E EPS (Rmb) 0.650.931.141.31 EPS growth (%) 30.141.822.915.1 P/B (X) 2.42.11.71.5 P/E (X) 14.910.58.67.4 Dividend yield (%) 1.32.02.32.7 P/PPOP (X) 5.14.13.42.9 PPOP growth (%) 20.625.218.816.4 Preprovision ROA (%) 1.51.51.51.5 Credit cost (%) 0.80.70.70.7 ROA (%) 0.500.580.610.60 ROE (%) 17.321.021.921.2 Price performance chart 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600 3,800 4,000 4,200 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (L) FTSEXinhua 600 Index (R) Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute (10.1) (8.4) 33.3 Rel. to FTSEXinhua 600 Index (30.8) (39.9) (25.5) Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 7/11/2006 close. Ning Ma +852-2978-1677 | ning.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Roy Ramos +852-2978-0457 | roy.ramos@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Jennifer Meng +852-2978-0169 | jennifer.meng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not required to take the NASD/NYSE analyst exam. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the text preceding the disclosures. For other important disclosures go to /research/hedge.html. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research July 12,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank: Summary financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08EBalance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E Net interest income 13,099.216,305.619,356.022,680.2 Gross loans 377,438.8446,145.8522,311.7612,920.9 Non-interest income 1,255.11,310.91,543.51,845.0 NPLs 7,444.79,030.510,998.813,525.4 Operating revenue 14,354.317,616.520,899.524,525.2 Loan loss reserves 10,727.713,003.915,618.418,949.0 Non-interest expense (6,834.9) (8,201.9) (9,714.5) (11,502.0) Total interest earning assets 554,420.4653,736.2766,896.9897,911.6 Preprovision oper profits 7,519.49,414.611,185.013,023.2 Other non-interest earning assets 19,102.321,382.824,366.824,166.0 Total provision charge (3,180.2) (3,266.2) (3,754.5) (4,470.7) Total assets 573,522.7675,118.9791,263.7922,077.6 Associates 0.00.00.00.0 Customer deposits 507,437.9597,671.5698,710.8817,580.2 Pretax profit 4,339.26,148.57,430.58,552.6 Total interest-bearing liabilities 545,076.8642,715.4753,877.5879,035.4 Tax (1,781.2) (2,520.9) (2,972.2) (3,421.0) Total equity 15,969.518,605.222,179.226,282.1 Minorities 0.00.00.00.0 Net profit 2,558.03,627.64,458.35,131.5 CAMEL ratios (%) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E C: Tier 1 capital ratio 4.14.34.64.8 Dividends (509.0) (750.5) (884.3) (1,028.5) C: Equity/loans 4.44.34.44.4 Dividends payout (%) 19.920.719.820.0 C: Equity/assets 2.82.82.82.9 A: NPL ratio 2.02.02.12.2 Earnings growth drivers (%) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08EA: Loan loss reserves/NPLs 144.1144.0142.0140.1 Net interest margin 2.62.62.62.6 E: Net interest margin 2.62.62.62.6 Provision charge/total loans 0.90.80.70.8 E: Non int inc/oper revenues 8.747.447.397.52 YoYGrowth (%) E: Cost-income ratio 47.646.646.546.9 Customer deposits 27.817.816.917.0 E: ROAA 0.500.580.610.60 Loans 21.418.117.017.2 L: Loan/deposit ratio 72.372.572.572.7 Net interest income 24.524.518.717.2 Fee income 13.730.535.035.0 Key CAMELOT assumptions 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E Non-interest income 29.34.417.719.5 GSCAMELOT fair P/B (X) -- -- 2.1 -- Operating revenue 24.922.718.617.3 GSCAMELOT fair P/E (X) -- -- 13.0 -- Operating expenses 29.920.018.418.4 Risk-free rate (%) 4.04.04.04.0 Preprovision Operating profit 20.625.218.816.4 Equity risk premium (%) 7.57.57.57.5 Provision charges 1.52.715.019.1 CAMELOT beta (X) -- -- 1.3 -- Pretax profit 39.841.720.915.1 Risk-adjusted cost of equity (%) -- -- 13.8 -- Net profit 30.141.822.915.13-yr adjusted DPSCAGR (%) -- -- 19.4 -- EPS 30.141.822.915.1 Sustainable ROE estimate (%) -- -- 15.8 -- DPS 8.347.517.816.3 LT dividend payout estimate (%) -- -- 30.0 -- Ex-growth bond-equivalent P/B (X) -- -- 1.1 -- Market dimensions 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E No of branches 350.0 -- -- -- Loan portfolio (%) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E No of staff (000) 10,151.0 -- -- -- Commercial & corporate 85.083.480.978.5 Revenues/staff (Rmb) 1,414.1 -- -- -- Mortgages/home loans 12.714.917.119.3 Net profit/staff (Rmb) 252.0 -- -- -- Consumer 15.016.619.121.5 Valuation (current price) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E DuPont analysis (%) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E ROE 17.321.021.921.2 P/E basic (X) 14.910.58.67.4 x leverage 3.13.03.03.1 P/B (X) 2.42.11.71.5 = ROA 0.500.580.610.60 P/PPOP (X) 5.14.13.42.9 Dividend yield (%) 1.32.02.32.7 % of assets 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E Net interest income 2.52.62.62.6 EPS, basic (Rmb) 0.650.931.141.31 Fee income 0.10.10.10.1 EPS, fully-diluted (Rmb) 0.650.931.141.31 Non-interest income 0.20.20.20.2 Operating revenue 2.82.82.92.9 EPS, basic growth (%) 30.141.822.915.1 Operating expenses 1.31.31.31.3 EPS, fully diluted Growth (%) 30.141.822.915.1 Preprovision Operating profit 1.51.51.51.5 Loan loss provisions 0.60.50.50.5 BVPS (Rmb) 4.084.755.676.71 Pretax profits 0.81.01.01.0 DPS (Rmb) 0.130.190.230.26 Taxes 0.30.40.40.4 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Analyst Contributors Ning Ma ning.ma@gs.com Roy Ramos roy.ramos@gs.com Jennifer Meng jennifer.meng@gs.com July 12,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3 We expect strong 1H2006 operating results SPDB is scheduled to report 1H2006 results on August 11. We expect strong operating results driven by: 18%-20% loan growth, strong fee income growth and stable/improving asset quality. It remains to be seen whether SPDB’s NPL provision coverage will increase beyond 149% in 1Q2006. Although 1H2006 NIM may remain under pressure yoy due to the higher securities investment yields and money market yields in 1H2005, we believe SPDB’s NIM should recover as loans reprice at higher rates post the lending rate hike in April, and as money market and debt yields have recovered since 2Q2006. July 12,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4 RegAC I, Ning Ma, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Investment profile The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as 30-day historical volatility, annualized and adjusted for dividends. Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets. Disclosures Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s) Ning Ma: Asia Pacific Financials. Asia Pacific Financials: Bangkok Bank, Bank of Ayudhya, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, Bank of East Asia, BOCHong Kong (Holdings), Bursa Malaysia, Cathay Financial, China Construction Bank, China Life Insurance Company, China Merchants Bank, Chinatrust Financial Holdings, CITICInt'l Financial, Cosmos Bank, Daegu Bank, Dah Sing Banking Group, Dah Sing Financial Holdings, DBSGroup Holdings, Fubon Financial Holdings, Hana Financial Group, Hang Seng Bank, Hong Kong Exchanges, HSBCHoldings, Hua Xia Bank, ICBC (Asia), Kasikornbank, Kookmin Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Liu Chong Hing Bank, Mega Financial Holdings, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., PICCProperty and Casualty, Ping An Insurance Group, Polaris Securities, Pusan Bank, Samsung Fire & Marine, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Shenzhen Development Bank, Shin Kong Financial Holdings, Shinhan Financial Group, Siam Commercial Bank, Singapore Exchange, SinoPac Holdings, Standard Chartered Bank, Taishin Financial Holdings, Thanachart Capital, TISCOBank, United Overseas Bank, Wing Hang Bank, Wing Lung Bank, Woori Finance Holdings, Yuanta Core Pacific. Company-specific regulatory disclosures The following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, "Goldman Sachs") and companies covered by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs and referred to in this research. Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (Rmb9.76) Goldman Sachs had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (Rmb9.76) Goldman Sachs had a non-securities services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (Rmb9.76) Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell Global 26% 59% 15% 58% 52% 47% As of April 1,2006, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 2,048 equity securities. Prior to June 26,2006, Goldman Sachs utilized a relative rating system of Outperform, In-Line and Underperform, which, for the purposes of the above disclosure required by July 12,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5 NASD/NYSE rules, equated to Buy, Hold and Sell. As of June 26,2006, Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure. See 'Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions' below. Price target and rating history chart(s) Regulatory disclosures Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co- managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; market making and/or specialist role. The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the Goldman Sachs website at . Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and regulations. Australia: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. Canada: Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. has approved of, and agreed to take responsibility for, this research in Canada if and to the extent it relates to equity securities of Canadian issuers. Analysts may conduct site visits but are prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement by the company of travel expenses for such visits. Hong Kong: Further information on the securities of covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Japan: See company-specific disclosures as to any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance Company. Korea: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. Singapore: Further information on the covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W). United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as private customers in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Services Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request. European Union: Disclosure information in relation to Article 4 (1) (d) and Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Directive 2003/126/EC is available at Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions Buy, Neutral, Sell -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages various regional Investment Lists to a global guideline of 25-35% of stocks as Buy and 10-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership. Coverage groups and views: A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at . The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following MJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFM 2003200420052006 6 8 10 12 14 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 3,000 3,250 3,500 3,750 IL Sep 27 OP Nov 3 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history Currency: Chinese Renminbi Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; Reuters for daily closing prices as of 04/01/06. Rating Price target Price target at removal FTSEXinhua 600 Index; pricing by FactSet Covered by Ning Ma, as of Sep 13,2004 Not covered by current analyst 7.69 6.93 7.47 8.35 10.75 12.70 S to ck P ric e In de x P ric e The price targets shown should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, which may or may not have included price targets, as well as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets. July 12,2006 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price, if any, have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. Ratings, coverage views and related definitions prior to June 26,2006 Our rating system requires that analysts rank order the stocks in their coverage groups and assign one of three investment ratings (see definitions below) within a ratings distribution guideline of no more than 25% of the stocks should be rated Outperform and no fewer than 10% rated Underperform. The analyst assigns one of three coverage views (see definitions below), which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and valuation. Each coverage group, listing all stocks covered in that group, is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at . Definitions Outperform (OP). We expect this stock to outperform the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. In-Line (IL). We expect this stock to perform in line with the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. Underperform (U). We expect this stock to underperform the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. Coverage views: Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Current Investment List (CIL). We expect stocks on this list to provide an absolute total return of approximately 15%-20% over the next 12 months. We only assign this designation to stocks rated Outperform. We require a 12-month price target for stocks with this designation. Each stock on the CIL will automatically come off the list after 90 days unless renewed by the covering analyst and the relevant Regional Investment Review Committee. Global product; distributing entities The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs, and pursuant to certain contractual arrangements, on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty Ltd (ABN 21006797897) on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Canada by Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. regarding Canadian equities and by Goldman Sachs & Co. (all other research); in Germany by Goldman Sachs & Co. oHG; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs JBWere (NZ) Limited on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union. European Union: Goldman Sachs International, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the European Union and United Kingdom; Goldman, Sachs & Co. oHG, regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, may also be distributing research in Germany. General disclosures in addition to specific disclosures required by certain jurisdictions This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than some industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options and warrants) thereof of covered companies referred to in this research. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Current options disclosure documents are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at or from Research Compliance, One New York Plaza, New York, NY 10004. Copyright 2006 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

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