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研究报告:携程06年第二季度盈利预测CTRP-060721

研报作者:GS 来自:GS 时间:2006-07-24 08:34:30
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July 21,2006 Ctrip.com International (CTRP) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1 July 21,2006 COMPANYUPDATE Ctrip.com International (CTRP) Magnitude of exceeding revenue guidance may moderate What's changed We expect Ctrip to report 2Q2006 earnings in mid August. We have lowered our 2Q2006 air-ticketing revenue growth forecast to reflect relatively slower air travel activities as reflected by the two major air carriers’ (China Eastern and China Southern) passenger load data. Implications We have revised earnings down 1% for 2006, but raised our earnings by 3% for 2007 and 2% for 2008 to reflect contribution from e-ticket and corporate travel. We expect Ctrip to report 2Q2006 total revenue growth of 46% yoy with hotel revenue growth of 26% yoy and air-ticketing revenue growth of 93% yoy. We model packaged tour revenue up 81% yoy, up 14% qoq as Ctrip divests its low margin, low growth group travel business (which represents ~20% of packaged tour revenue) in 2Q2006. Valuation We have a revised price target of US$46 (US$45 before) based on 25X our 2007 non- GAAPEPADS. We now forecast 2007-2010 pre-tax earnings growth of 30%. Our DCF value based on 12.5% discount rate and 14X free cash exit is US$44. Ctrip is at 39X our 2006 forecast non-GAAP diluted EPADS and 26X 2007; at 50X and 35X free cash flow; and at 13X 2006 book value versus our forecast 2006 ROE of 30%. Ctrip is trading at 24X our 2007 forecast EBITDA. Key risks Risks include slower than expected hotel and air-ticketing revenue growth due to increasing competition from new entrants such as e-commerce site, Dangdang and Netease’s Mango. We do not expect a meaningful threat from hybrid players as: 1) air-ticketing market remains in its infancy with Ctrip having less than a 3% market share; and 2) travel business is non-core to Dangdang and Netease operations. INVESTMENTLISTMEMBERSHIP Neutral Coverage View: Neutral China: Internet Growth Returns * Multiple Volatility Volatility Multiple Returns * Growth Investment Profile: Ctrip.com International Low High Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the disclosure section of this document. CTRP Asia Pacific Media And Entertainment Peer Group Average Key data Current Price ($) 48.66 Price target ($) 46.00 Market cap ($ mn / US$ mn) 1,560.4 / 1,560.4 Foreign ownership (%) -- 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E EPS ($) New 0.871.021.622.22 EPS revision (%) 0.0 (1.5) 2.92.0 EPS growth (%) 66.916.359.237.3 EPS (dil) (Rmb) New 6.927.6411.8516.27 P/E (X) 55.747.930.121.9 P/B (X) 16.213.410.78.6 EV/EBITDA (X) 25.139.823.816.6 Dividend yield (%) 0.50.71.32.0 ROE (%) 32.829.637.240.8 Price performance chart 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 May-06 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 Ctrip.com International (L) NASDAQComposite (R) Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute 3.564.484.0 Rel. to NASDAQComposite 19.981.297.5 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 7/20/2006 close. Kit Low +852-2978-0856 | kit.low@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. James Mitchell, CFA +852-2978-1450 | james.mitchell@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Ada Ho +852-2978-1261 | ada.ho@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not required to take the NASD/NYSE analyst exam. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers in the US can receive independent, third-party research on companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at .gs.com or call 1-866-727-7000. For Reg AC certification, see the text preceding the disclosures. For other important disclosures go to /research/hedge.html. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research July 21,2006 Ctrip.com International (CTRP) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 Ctrip.com International: Summary financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08EBalance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E Total revenue 521.2782.11,141.71,469.9 Cash & equivalents 741.7939.71,217.31,621.8 Cost of goods sold (88.6) (140.7) (202.4) (262.6) Accounts receivable 63.495.4171.0195.0 SG&A (153.4) (224.3) (314.9) (383.4) Inventory 0.00.00.00.0 R&D (57.2) (93.0) (132.0) (161.9) Other current assets 45.687.6147.3192.8 Other operating profit/(expense) (2.5) (58.9) (61.8) (64.9) Total current assets 851.31,123.31,536.32,010.2 EBITDA 228.3277.4440.7605.8 Net PP&E 49.453.553.852.2 Depreciation & amortization (8.8) (12.2) (10.2) (8.7) Net intangibles 9.59.59.59.5 EBIT 219.5265.2430.5597.1 Total investments 0.00.00.00.0 Interest income 12.720.126.334.6 Other long-term assets 71.471.471.471.4 Interest expense 0.00.00.00.0 Total assets 1,035.91,312.11,725.32,197.7 Income/(loss) from uncons. subs.0.00.00.00.0 Others 22.911.711.711.7 Accounts payable 115.4176.6250.4311.5 Pretax profits 255.1297.0468.5643.4 Short-term debt 49.575.8107.5133.7 Income tax (30.6) (46.2) (79.6) (109.4) Other current liabilities 18.418.418.418.4 Minorities (0.3) 0.00.00.0 Total current liabilities 270.3383.8563.5742.0 Long-term debt 0.00.00.01.0 Net income pre-preferred dividends 224.5250.8388.8534.0 Other long-term liabilities 0.00.00.00.0 Preferred dividends 0.00.00.00.0 Total long-term liabilities 0.00.00.00.0 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 226.0309.7450.7599.0 Total liabilities 271.2384.6564.4742.8 Post-tax exceptionals (1.8) (58.9) (61.8) (64.9) Net income 224.2250.8388.8534.0 Common stock & premium 2.72.72.72.7 Other common equity 762.1925.21,158.71,452.6 EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) 7.119.6614.0518.68 Total common equity 764.7927.91,161.41,455.2 EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb) 7.057.8212.1316.65 Minority interest 0.90.80.80.8 EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb) 6.927.6411.8516.27 DPS (Rmb) 2.082.684.747.32 Total liabilities & equity 1,035.91,312.51,725.72,198.1 Dividend payout ratio (%) 30.035.040.045.0 Free cash flow yield (%) 2.32.73.95.0 BVPS ($) 2.983.764.836.05 Growth & margins (%) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08ERatios 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E Sales growth 56.150.046.028.8 ROE (%) 32.829.637.240.8 EBITDA growth 60.321.558.937.5 ROA (%) 25.221.425.627.2 EBIT growth 61.820.862.338.7 ROACE (%) 536.7423.5732.5 NM Net income growth 68.411.955.037.3 Inventory days NMNMNMNM EPS growth 62.710.955.037.3 Receivables days 34.637.142.645.4 Gross margin 83.082.082.382.1 Payable days 321.8378.6384.9390.5 EBITDA margin 43.835.538.641.2 Net debt/equity (%) (96.7) (101.0) (104.6) (111.2) EBIT margin 42.133.937.740.6 Interest cover - EBIT (X) NMNMNMNM Valuation 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E Cash flow statement (Rmb mn) 12/0512/06E 12/07E 12/08E Net income pre-preferred dividends 224.5250.8388.8534.0 P/E (analyst) (X) 55.747.930.121.9 D&A add-back 8.812.210.28.7 P/B (X) 16.213.410.78.6 Minorities interests add-back 0.3 (0.0) 0.00.0 EV/EBITDA (X) 25.139.823.816.6 Net inc/(dec) working capital 79.492.9112.093.7 Dividend yield (%) 0.50.71.32.0 Other operating cash flow (90.7) (73.8) (135.2) (69.3) Cash flow from operations 222.3282.1375.9567.2 Capital expenditures (31.9) (10.8) (10.5) (7.1) Acquisitions 0.00.00.00.0 Divestitures 0.00.00.00.0 Others (40.9) 0.00.00.0 Cash flow from investments (72.8) (10.8) (10.5) (7.1) Dividends paid (common & pref) (39.9) (67.3) (87.8) (155.5) Inc/(dec) in debt 0.00.00.00.0 Common stock issuance (repurchase) 9.60.00.00.0 Other financing cash flows 0.00.00.00.0 Cash flow from financing (30.3) (67.3) (87.8) (155.5) Total cash flow 119.2204.1277.6404.5 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Analyst Contributors Kit Low kit.low@gs.com James Mitchell, CFA james.mitchell@gs.com Ada Ho ada.ho@gs.com July 21,2006 Ctrip.com International (CTRP) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3 Believe management guidance based on volume growth expectations Management has guided 40% yoy revenue growth for 2006 and implicitly 40% yoy growth for each quarter. Management expects 2006 hotel revenue to grow 20%, air-ticketing 80% and packaged tour (including group travel) 80%-100%. We forecast 50% yoy total revenue growth for 2006 with hotel revenue growth of 28%, air-ticketing of 96% and packaged tour of 92%. Exhibit 1: We forecast 50% total revenue growth for 2006 with hotel revenue growth of 28%, air-ticketing of 96% and packaged tour of 92%. Revenue growth rates,% 276 363 463 58363 163 320 543 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 200420052006E 2007E Rmb mn Others Packaged tour Air-ticketing Hotel reservation +28% +96% +26% +70% Total revenue growth of 50% Total revenue growth of 46% Total revenue growth of 57% +31% +158% Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Exhibit 2: Hotel revenue growth was fueled by volume growth Hotel volume versus ASP growth rates,4Q04-2Q06E Exhibit 3: Air ticketing revenue growth was fueled by volume and ASP growth Air ticketing volume versus ASP growth rates,4Q04-2Q06E 35% 29% 32% 27% 28% 25% 21% 2% 1% 4% 8% 4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 4Q20041Q20052Q20053Q20054Q20051Q20062Q2006E Hotel volume yoy growth rate Hotel ASP yoy growth ratemanagement guidance 125% 119% 111% 108% 117% 88% 92% 11% 26% 32% 25% 9% 11% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 4Q20041Q20052Q20053Q20054Q20051Q20062Q2006E Air ticketing volume yoy growth Air ticketing ASP yoy growth ratemanagement guidance July 21,2006 Ctrip.com International (CTRP) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Commission per air-ticket show signs of moderating growth We believe that the magnitude by which Ctrip exceeds revenue guidance will decline over the next several quarters as commission per air-ticket growth shows moderation with base quarter effect becoming larger. Commission per air ticket compound quarterly growth rate was 4% over the past six quarters, climbing from Rmb36 in 3Q2004 to Rmb47 in 1Q2006. We believe commission revenue per air ticket growth will moderate from 2Q2006. Hotel commission per booked room night growth has been gentle over the past six quarters with a compound quarterly growth rate of 1% to Rmb69. Exhibit 4: Hotel ASP was broadly flat in the last 10 quarters Hotel commissions per room night, Rmb Exhibit 5: Commission per air-ticket growth show moderation with base quarter effect becoming larger Average revenue per ticket, Rmb 6664656666646667 686969 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 4Q 20 03 1Q 20 04 2Q 20 04 3Q 20 04 4Q 20 04 1Q 20 05 2Q 20 05 3Q 20 05 4Q 20 05 1Q 20 06 2Q 20 06 E Rmb 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% % Hotel commissions per room night yoy growth rate 36 3335 36 4042 464544 4746 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 4Q 20 03 1Q 20 04 2Q 20 04 3Q 20 04 4Q 20 04 1Q 20 05 2Q 20 05 3Q 20 05 4Q 20 05 1Q 20 06 2Q 20 06 E Rmb -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% % Average revenue per ticket, Rmb yoy growth rate Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. As a result, we believe Ctrip will likely exceed revenue guidance of 40% yoy growth by 6-9 pp in the later quarters of 2006, down from 27 pp in 1Q2006. July 21,2006 Ctrip.com International (CTRP) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5 Exhibit 6: Ctrip quarterly profit model,1Q2005-2Q2006E Rmb mn Rmb mn 1Q20052Q20053Q20054Q20051Q20062Q2006E qoq yoy Hotel reservation 7192961049611622% 26% Air-ticketing 29374651607119% 93% Packaged tour 367791114% 81% Others 1323333% 2% Total revenues 10313715016516720020% 46% Less: Business and related tax (6) (8) (10) (10) (11) (13) 16% 55% Net revenues 9712914115515618720% 45% Cost of sevices (15) (20) (24) (30) (28) (34) 19% 70% Gross profits 8210911712512815420% 41% Product development (12) (14) (14) (17) (20) (22) 11% 56% Selling and marketing (22) (27) (30) (33) (33) (41) 26% 50% G&A (8) (10) (10) (13) (12) (14) 10% 36% Share based compensation (0) (0) (0) (1) (13) (15) 16% NM Operating profits 39576261506224% 8% Interest income 33344516% 59% Other income (expense) 33106339% -10% F/X exchange gain (loss) 0000 Pretax income 45647670577023% 9% Income tax (expense) (5) (7) (10) (8) (9) (10) 23% 46% Net profits 40576663485923% 5% Net profits-core 40576663627521% 31% Basic EPADS (US$) core 0.16 0.22 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.30 26% 36% Diluted EPADS (US$) core 0.15 0.22 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.30 26% 36% Basic EPADS (US$) 0.16 0.22 0.25 0.24 0.19 0.24 28% 9% Diluted EPADS (US$) 0.15 0.22 0.25 0.23 0.18 0.23 -22% 9% Margins Gross margin 85% 85% 83% 81% 82% 82% Operating margin 40% 44% 44% 39% 32% 33% Net income margin 41% 44% 47% 41% 40% 40% Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. e-ticket and corporate travel to boost growth 2007 growth e-ticket According to management, the PRC government is strongly encouraging air carriers to adopt e- ticketing. e-ticket bookings only represent 12% of Ctrip air-ticket bookings. e-ticketing will: Boost Ctrip revenue by boosting its commission rate per air-ticket as Ctrip no longer has to pay third party travel agents in cities where Ctrip has no presence to print air tickets for customers. Ctrip commission rate per air-ticket in 1Q2006 was 4.8%. We estimate Ctrip’s commission rate increasing to ~5%. Reduce delivery cost of air-tickets to its customers, but this will be offset by credit card fees paid to credit card companies. Corporate travel According to management, corporate travel revenue contribution to total revenue was negligible in 1Q2006, but management expect it to contribute up to 15% of total revenue in 5 years. We estimate corporate travel could contribute up to 5% of revenue by the end of 2007. Corporate travel revenue is embedded in hotel and air-ticketing with a blended gross margin of 70%. We expect Ctrip to benefit materially from e-ticket and corporate travel from 1Q2007. We have revised our 2007 revenue growth forecast from 39% to 46% as a result, versus our 2006 revenue growth forecast of 50%. July 21,2006 Ctrip.com International (CTRP) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6 Appendix: Exhibit 7: Scorecard Operating data of Ctrip and eLong,1Q2005-1Q2006 1Q20052Q20053Q20054Q20051Q20061Q20052Q20053Q20054Q20051Q2006 Hotel Hotel partnerships 3,1003,2703,3303,4003,5002,7002,8003,0003,1003,200 Guaranteed allotment hotels 1,2001,3001,4001,5001,600 NA 1,100 NANANA Hotel commission 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% NA 14% 14% 14% 15% Hotel booked room nights 1,100,0001,390,0001,440,0001,520,0001,380,000513,000615,000684,000724,000666,000 Hotel commissions per room night, Rmb 64666768695660616363 Airline ticketing Online transactions 30% 30% 31% 30% 30% NA 20% 20% 20% 20% Number of air ticket bookings 680,000800,0001,020,0001,170,0001,280,000103,000135,000198,000215,000218,000 Airline ticketing commission 4.8% 4.9% 4.6% 5.1% 4.8% NA 4.0% 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% Average revenue per ticket, Rmb 42464544473637383537 etickets as % of air tickets 12% 15% 11% 11% 12% NA 10% 12% 12% 10% Gross Revenue breakdown, Rmb mn Hotel reservation 719296104962937414642 growth % -10% 31% 4% 8% -8% -10% 28% 12% 10% -8% Air-ticketing 293746516045888 growth % 32% 29% 25% 11% 17% 29% 34% 50% 1% 6% Packaged tour 3677945433 growth % 0% 71% 13% 7% 32% 157% 38% -22% -26% 10% Others 1323325595 Total Gross Revenue 1031371501651673852586558 growth % -1% 33% 9% 10% 1% -3% 36% 12% 11% -10% Net Revenue breakdown, Rmb mn Hotel reservation 66879097892735394340 Air-ticketing 273543485645778 Packaged tour 3567945433 Others 1223224585 Total Net Revenue 971291411551563649556155 Buiness tax 6810101123343 Business tax rate 6.17% 6.13% 6.51% 6.31% 6.72% 5.06% 5.35% 5.55% 5.71% 5.62% Revenue breakdown,% Hotel reservation 68% 67% 64% 63% 57% 76% 72% 71% 70% 72% Air-ticketing 28% 27% 31% 31% 36% 10% 10% 13% 12% 14% Packaged tour 3% 4% 4% 4% 6% 10% 10% 7% 5% 6% Others 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 5% 9% 9% 13% 9% Selling and marketing costs, Rmb mn 22273033332126263125 As % of net revenue 23% 21% 21% 22% 21% 58% 53% 48% 51% 44% R&D, Rmb mn 12141417208991311 As % of net revenue 12% 11% 10% 11% 13% 22% 18% 17% 21% 19% G&A, Rmb mn 999912810121618 As % of net revenue 9% 7% 6% 6% 8% 22% 21% 22% 27% 32% Alexa traffic data (3 months average) Alexa page views per user 7.907.707.307.104.104.004.904.90 Alexa reach per mn users 1,4451,4601,5851,6451,3701,3351,125840 eLongCtrip Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Alexa. July 21,2006 Ctrip.com International (CTRP) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 7 RegAC I, Kit Low, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Investment profile The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as 30-day historical volatility, annualized and adjusted for dividends. Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets. Disclosures Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s) Kit Low: Asia Pacific Media. Asia Pacific Media: 104 Corporation,51job, Inc., ABS-CBN, Asia Satellite, Asia Satellite (ADS), Astro All Asia Networks, BECWorld, Beijing Media, Cheil Communications, Clear Media, Ctrip.com International, Focus Media, Galaxy Entertainment Group, i-CABLECommunications, i-CABLE Communications (ADR), Kangwon Land, Kongzhong Corp., Netease, Phoenix Satellite Television, PTSurya Citra Media, SCMPGroup, Shanda Interactive Ent, SINACorporation, Singapore Press Holdings, Sohu.com, Star Cruises, Star Cruises, Television Broadcasts, Tencent Holdings, Tom Online, Tom Online (ADR). Company-specific regulatory disclosures The following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, "Goldman Sachs") and companies covered by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs and referred to in this research. Goldman Sachs beneficially owned 1% or more of the common equity (including derivatives exercisable or convertible within 60 days but excluding positions held by GSAsset Mgmt.) as of the month end preceding this report: Ctrip.com International ($48.66) Goldman Sachs makes a market in the securities: Ctrip.com International ($48.66) Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell Global 27% 59% 14% 57% 49% 45% As of July 1,2006, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 2,129 equity securities. Prior to June 24,2006, Goldman Sachs utilized a relative rating system of Outperform, In-Line and Underperform, which, for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules, equated to Buy, Hold and Sell. As of June 24,2006, Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure. See 'Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions' below. July 21,2006 Ctrip.com International (CTRP) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 8 Price target and rating history chart(s) Regulatory disclosures Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co- managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; market making and/or specialist role. The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the Goldman Sachs website at . 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A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request. European Union: Disclosure information in relation to Article 4 (1) (d) and Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Directive 2003/126/EC is available at Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions Buy, Neutral, Sell -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages various regional Investment Lists to a global guideline of 25-35% of stocks as Buy and 10-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership. Coverage groups and views: A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at . The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. ASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJ 2003200420052006 10 20 30 40 50 60 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 IL Oct 27 Ctrip.com International (CTRP) Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history Currency: U.S. Dollar Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; Reuters for daily closing prices as of 07/01/06. Rating Price target Price target at removal NASDAQComposite; pricing by FactSet Covered by Kit Low, as of Oct 27,2005 Not covered by current analyst 31 32 31.50 37.50 38 45 S to ck P ric e In de x P ric e New equity ratings, were adopted on June 24, 2006 but are not yet reflected above. The new Buy, Neutral and Sell are equivalent to OP, IL and U. The price targets shown should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, which may or may not have included price targets, as well as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets. July 21,2006 Ctrip.com International (CTRP) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 9 Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price, if any, have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. Ratings, coverage views and related definitions prior to June 26,2006 Our rating system requires that analysts rank order the stocks in their coverage groups and assign one of three investment ratings (see definitions below) within a ratings distribution guideline of no more than 25% of the stocks should be rated Outperform and no fewer than 10% rated Underperform. The analyst assigns one of three coverage views (see definitions below), which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and valuation. Each coverage group, listing all stocks covered in that group, is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at . Definitions Outperform (OP). We expect this stock to outperform the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. In-Line (IL). We expect this stock to perform in line with the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. Underperform (U). We expect this stock to underperform the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. Coverage views: Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Current Investment List (CIL). We expect stocks on this list to provide an absolute total return of approximately 15%-20% over the next 12 months. We only assign this designation to stocks rated Outperform. We require a 12-month price target for stocks with this designation. Each stock on the CIL will automatically come off the list after 90 days unless renewed by the covering analyst and the relevant Regional Investment Review Committee. Global product; distributing entities The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs, and pursuant to certain contractual arrangements, on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty Ltd (ABN 21006797897) on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Canada by Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. regarding Canadian equities and by Goldman Sachs & Co. (all other research); in Germany by Goldman Sachs & Co. oHG; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs JBWere (NZ) Limited on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union. European Union: Goldman Sachs International, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the European Union and United Kingdom; Goldman, Sachs & Co. oHG, regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, may also be distributing research in Germany. General disclosures in addition to specific disclosures required by certain jurisdictions This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than some industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options and warrants) thereof of covered companies referred to in this research. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Current options disclosure documents are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at or from Research Compliance, One New York Plaza, New York, NY 10004. Copyright 2006 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

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