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研究报告:中信证券-每月行业视点(2014年1月7日~2014年2月6日)-140121

研报作者:诸建芳,孙稳存,董利 来自:中信证券 时间:2014-02-07 16:51:06
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    (PDF)
  • 发布者
    li***un
  • 研报出处
    中信证券
  • 研报页数
    21 页
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  • 研报大小
    852 KB
研究报告内容

2014 GDP 7.5% 1-211 A 20141 —21-162 A 20142 — “ ” 1-273 — 1-295 — 1-306 — 1-237 — 1-288 — 1-79 — 1-1310 — 1-1311 — 2014 “ ” 1-1412 —2013141-1713 — 1-2014 — 1-2715 — 1-2716 — 1-2817 20132014 GDP 7.5% —— GDPGDP 7.7% 7.6% -0.4% -0.6% GDP 1219.6% 1217.1% G3 1212013 20141 M213.8% 2014 M213.5% 2014 GDP 7.5% 2014 GDP 20102011201220132014F GDP 10.49.27.77.77.5 CPI 3.35.42.62.63.0 PPI 5.56.0 -1.7 -1.90.2 RMB/USD 6.626.306.286.106.05 20131Q 20132Q 20133Q 20134Q 20141QF 20142QF 20143QF 20144QF GDP 7.77.57.87.77.57.47.57.7 CPI 2.42.32.82.93.03.22.82.9 A 201412 —— 12121 M2 NDFEPFR 1212 1 QE 2 211 5.8‰~6.2‰ IPO 2 IPO 21 IPO IPOIPO 2 A 20142 —— “ ” “ ” 2014 “ ” “ ” PMI Bloomberg 2014Q1/Q2 GDP 7.6%/7.5% 1247.3%/7.2% 2014 GDP 7.5% 21 PMI 50 “ ” 2 “ ” 21 IPOIPO QE 201312 129 ~30 QE “ ” “ ” IPO A 123 “ ” “ ” “ ” —— —— 1 QE QE 11124 CRB 0.8% WTI 1.9% Brent 0.3% 20142 1 WTI 100 / Brent —— 3201312894.22 2500 A “ ” A —— 1 “ ” 122013125,460 201312136 4.91% 5.50% 5.65% 45bp 47bp 35bp 78bp 54bp 2 12 —— 1 1777 0.57% 1123120141 —— 2013 TMT 12013 2013 —— 12 WTI 12 WTI 6.6% 0.1% WTI Henry Hub 3.854.31 / LNG 1 Al-Sharara 201312321813 1 PVC PTA 201312 “ ” “ ” 12014 23 IV 42014 PDH EPS PE PBPEG 1213E 14E 15E 1213E 14E 15E —— 0.68% 1 1 ROEA 4 PE NAVEPSPE ( ) 20122013E 2014E 2015E 20122013E 2014E 2015E A 7.3811.801.141.471.791.966.55.04.13.8 A 4.8610.670.530.690.841.079.27.05.84.5 —— 201311 +5%/+10%/+5% “ ” 201311 +7% 2014 OTT 1124% CES + LG 2014 “ ” EPSPE PB 20122013E 2014E 2015E 20122013E 2014E 2015E —— BDI 2012-2013 BDI 9201206 BDI 23003 BDI BDI BDI 2014 8K+TEU 30% 8K+TEU 80% 2013 BDTI 11% VLCC 2014 “ ” EPSPE PB 201220132014E 2015E 201220132014E 2015E *ST 3.05 -0.940.010.010.12 n.a.305.0305.025.41.4 —— 20132200 20142030% “ ” O2O 12213 +17.9% +4.4% 1-122198 SUV 12165 +32.5% +5.2% 118 +17.8% SUV 31 127.6 +56% 1-1277 +23% “ ” “33” 12 SUV 12 O2O A 3 EPSPE PB 1213E 14E 15E 1213E 14E 15E 600066.SH 18.401.211.381.591.85151312103.0 601633.SH 35.871.872.703.744.9819131074.2 000800.SZ 10.09 -0.460.661.321.85 -2215852.0 000550.SZ 25.251.761.902.202.8514131192.5 000581.SZ 27.610.871.121.532.27322518123.0 000625.SZ 10.790.310.751.101.4535141072.9 600104.SH 13.101.882.132.372.7676651.1 600741.SH 8.741.201.311.421.5477661.1 600805.SH 9.931.311.551.862.2886541.7 600660.SH 7.670.760.900.991.09109872.1 —— 201334.3 +12% Q2 Q3 13Q4 14Q2 “ ” “ ” IPO 23.151457.5729 40%/21%/34% 2013-15 EPS 1.49/1.81/2.422014 13 PE 45.25201425 PE 2013/1430/252013PE 2.96 1214Q1 14Q2 Q1 “ ” + + Q1 EPSPE 13 PEEPEG 1213E 14E 15E 1213E 14E 15E A 18.350.720.680.901.0326272018271.9922.5 “ ” “ ” “ ” 121259.2% 113 / PMI 12 “ ” “ ” 66.20% “ ” “ ” 40.50% 32.81% 1~12 14.2% “ ” 2012 “ ” 20% 2014 P/E 25~30 “ ” “ ” EPSP/E P/B 20122013E 2014E 2015E 20122013E 2014E 2015E —— 12100/5020131213.6% 11 1.6pcts 15.1% 110.8pct 201313.1% -1.2pcts 1250 / 8.8%/8.3% 3.3/3.5pcts 1-2 20141-2 / 1216.6% 111.8pcts 12 / 11.1%/14.1% 1.7/2.0pcts / 10.9%/21.8% 118.7/18.0pcts 12 20142014 O2O 22013 PE 11x PB 1.9XNAV 50% 40% 40% A 3.5% H 7.0% O2O/ 2014 O2O ) 201414x K 201412x 201410x (O2O/ 14PE9x) A(201411x) 201415x EPSPE PEG 12A 13E 14E 15E 12A 13E 14E 15E —— 1212 / 6.2%/8.1% 1.7/0.8pcts 12 Q42014 112 / / 9.91%/20.99% Q4 1 PPLDPE 1 “ ” / “ ” “ ” EPSPE PB 1213E 14E 15E 1213E 14E 15E S1010510120003 S1010511080003 S1010510120023 S1010510120047 S1010510120004 S1010512060002 S1010511110001 S1010512070001 S1010513020001 S1010513080005 S1010513080003 S1010510120056 S1010510120064 S1010513060001 S1010510120071 S1010510120066 S1010511030001 S1010513110002 S1010512070002 S1010512010001 S1010513070003 S1010510120052 S1010513080006 S1010510120057 S1010512080008 S1010510120038 S1010513080004 S1010510120044 S1010512020002 S1010512120001 S1010510120001 S1010510120059 S1010510120026 S1010510120019 S1010512080001 S1010510120063 S1010510120058 S1010511120001 S1010513050001 S1010510120067 S1010513110005 S1010513110001 S1010511080001 S1010510120025 S1010510120042 S1010512050004 S1010510120048 S1010512080007 S1010510120051 S1010510120022 S1010512090007 S1010511040003 S1010511090002 S1010512050002 S1010512080009 S1010511020001 S1010513080002 S1010510120029 S1010511080005 S1010512100001 S1010513110004 S1010513110003 S1010511080002 S1010512090004 S1010512090006 S1010512080004 S1010511090003 S1010512080002 S1010510120041 S1010512080011 S1010513070002 S1010512060001 S1010513070005 S1010511080004 S1010512100002 S1010513080007 S1010510120062 S1010513080001 S1010512040002 S1010513060002 S1010513110006 S1010513120001 Analyst Certification i ii The analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S. - This report has been produced in its entirety by CITICSecurities Limited Company (“CITICSecurities”, regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Securities Business License Number: Z20374000). This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a) (2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to “major U.S. institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder. Z20374000193415a-6(a) (2) 15a-6

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