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(无)研究报告:高盛对中国六月份贸易数据分析 贸易增长创下历史新高-060710

研报作者:GS 来自:GS 时间:2006-07-12 08:48:24
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Asia Economics Data Flash July 10,2006 Goldman Sachs Asia Economics Research Group Hong Liang, Helen (Hong) Qiao, Eva Yi +85229781941 GSGLOBALECONOMICWEBSITE Economic Research from the GSInstitutional Portal at Important disclosures appear at the back of this document China Trade Data: Trade Surplus Hits an All Time High Exhibit 1: Table of trade data ` Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Exports % yoy 23.325.123.828.222.228.0 % qoq (sa, ann) 15.829.424.242.030.527.0 % m om (sa) 2.52.3 -1.87.3 -4.59.3 Imports % yoy 18.921.615.521.329.525.4 % qoq (sa, ann) -2.3 -0.211.924.328.425.4 % m om (sa) 1.34.0 -2.9 -2.52.93.8 Trade Balance (USD bn) 14.513.010.511.22.49.5 Source: General Administration of Customs, CEIC, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Export growth showed signs of moderation in June. June export growth softened to 23.3% year on year (yoy), down from 25.1% yoy in May. On a seasonally-adjusted; quarter-on-quarter (qoq), annualized basis, export momentum slowed to 15.8% qoq, down from 29.4% qoq. Imports growth also softened to 18.9% yoy in June, down from 21.6%% yoy in May. Sequential momentum of imports slowed further to -2.3% qoq, down from -0.2% qoq. The trade surplus reached an all time high of US$14.5 billion, breaking last month’s record of US$13 billion. The total trade surplus in the first half of the year reached US$61 billion, compared with US$39 billion in the same period last year, or a 55% increase yoy. Persistently large trade surpluses confirm our view that the renminbi remains significantly undervalued. We believe the continued widening of the trade surplus has not only left the spot light on China’s exchange rate policy, but also highlighted the awkwardness of tightening policies that tend to exacerbate China's external imbalances. Risk again rises for a weaker import demand from China in the near term on the back of recent policy tightening measures that try to slow down domestic investment. Exhibit 2: Headline trade growth -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 -12 -6 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 Trade balance (RHS) Exports Imports US$ bn% chg yoy Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. 2 Global product; distributing entities The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs, and pursuant to certain contractual arrangements, on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty Ltd (ABN 21006797897) on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Canada by Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. regarding Canadian equities and by Goldman Sachs & Co. (all other research); in Germany by Goldman Sachs & Co. oHG; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs JBWere (NZ) Limited on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union. General disclosures in addition to specific disclosures required by certain jurisdictions This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options and warrants) thereof of covered companies referred to in this research. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Current options disclosure documents are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at or from Research Compliance, One New York Plaza, New York, NY 10004. Copyright 2006 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

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