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研究报告:石油化工:泛亚石油化工行业综述-060711

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" " The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. July 11,2006 Coverage view: Attractive GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly MSCIOil and Gas Index versus MSCIAsia-Pacific Index MSCIOil and Gas Index versus Brent crude oil price 80 130 180 230 280 330 380 430 480 Jan- 02 Apr- 02 Jul- 02 O ct- 02 Jan- 03 Apr- 03 Jul- 03 O ct- 03 Jan- 04 Apr- 04 Jul- 04 O ct- 04 Jan- 05 Apr- 05 Jul- 05 Oct- 05 Jan- 06 Apr- 06 Jul- 06 MSCIACAsia-Pacific O il and Gas Index MSCIACAsia Pacific Index 90 140 190 240 290 340 390 440 490 Jan- 02 Apr- 02 Jul- 02 Oct- 02 Jan- 03 Apr- 03 Jul- 03 Oct- 03 Jan- 04 Apr- 04 Jul- 04 Oct- 04 Jan- 05 Apr- 05 Jul- 05 Oct- 05 Jan- 06 Apr- 06 Jul- 06 18 28 38 48 58 68 78 (US$/bbl)MSCIACAsia-Pacific Oil and Gas Index (left scale) Brent crude oil (right scale) Source: DataStream. Kelvin Koh, CFA Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. kelvin.koh@gs.com Hong Kong: 852-2978-1218 Kenneth Whee Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch kenneth.whee@gs.com Seoul: 822-3788-1791 Jim Hung Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch jim.hung@gs.com Taipei: 8862-2730-4185 Yukihiro Iwasaki Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd. yukihiro.iwasaki@gs.com Tokyo: 813-6437-9907 Chris Shiu Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. chris.shiu@gs.com Hong Kong: 852-2978-0649 Joe Zeng Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. joe.zeng@gs.com Hong Kong: 852-2978-0223 Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not required to take the NASD/NYSE analyst exam. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers in the US can receive independent, third-party research on companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at .gs.com or call 1-866-727-7000. For Reg AC certification, see the text preceding the disclosures. For other important disclosures go to /research/hedge.html. Valuation and performance In the past month, the MSCIAsia-Pacific Oil and Gas Index has risen 6%, outperforming the MSCIAsia-Pacific Index by 4 percentage points (pp). Within our Asia-Pacific Energy coverage universe, the top outperformers (versus the MSCIAsia-Pacific Oil and Gas Index) were GSHoldings (Conviction Buy) and CNOOC (Buy), outperforming by 8 and 7 pp, respectively. Stock focus We now forecast WTI at US$68/bbl and Singapore complex refining margins at US$9/bbl through 2009. We expect the current wide gap between long-dated commodity prices, reflected in commodity and M&A markets, and much lower implied commodity price assumptions, reflected in most oils stocks, to narrow over the next 18 months. Within our Attractive coverage view, we like CNOOC (Buy), GSHoldings (Conviction Buy), PetroChina (Buy), PTT (Buy) and Thai Oil (Buy), which potentially offer a 20% median total return. We continue to find valuations for COSL and PTTEP (both Sell) unattractive, although we believe their fundamentals are solid. Macro snapshot @Jul 7,2006 Spot WoW US$/bbl US$/bbl % Crude oil prices WTI 75.11.21.6% Brent 74.21.01.4% Dubai 70.02.43.6% Minas 70.70.40.6% Arab heavy 63.02.64.3% Crude oil prices spread WTI-Brent 0.90.116.5% WTI-Dubai 5.2 (1.3) -19.7% WTI-Minas 4.40.719.1% WTI-Arab heavy 12.1 (1.5) -10.8% Singapore refining margins Complex margin 8.1 (1.1) -12.1% Simple margin 0.3 (1.4) -81.6% Singapore product prices Gasoline 85.5 (1.2) -1.3% Naphtha 72.10.81.1% Kerosene 86.4 (1.0) -1.2% Gasoil 87.11.31.6% Fuel oil 53.51.63.2% GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,2006 Valuation and performance 2 Global integrated oil companies: Valuation analysis,2005-2008E 3 Global exploration and production companies: Valuation analysis, 2005-2008E 4 Global refiners: Valuation analysis,2005-2008E 5 Global oil services companies: Valuation analysis,2005-2007E 6 Integrated oil companies' share price performance 7 Exploration and production companies' share price performance 8 Refiners' share price performance 9 Oil service companies' share price performance Key commodity prices and margins 11 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price,1993-2006 YTD 12 Spread of WTI versus other crude,1993-2010N and normalized estimates 13 Hydrocarbon net speculative length versus WTI oil prices 14 Singapore refining margins,1990-2006 YTD 15 Key refinery product prices and margins Demand and supply trends 17 Monthly Asian energy macro data,2001-2006 YTD 18 China import and export data: Crude oil and total refined products 19 China import and export data: Gasoline, kerosene, diesel, and fuel oil 20 OPEC monthly production and quota compliance 21 Key upcoming events 22 Publications in past two weeks 23 Disclosures Table of contents The prices in this report are based on the market close of July 7,2006, unless specified. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,20061 Valuation and performance GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,20062 Global integrated oil companies: Valuation analysis,2005-2008E GSPrice Mkt cap P/E (X) EV/debt adj cash flow (X) P/gross cash flow (X) Ticker rating Jul 7 (US$mn) 20052006E 2007E 2008E 20052006E 2007E 2008E 20052006E 2007E 2008E International majors Chevron (US$) CVXNeutral 63.68 134,1819.77.67.77.86.95.34.84.46.95.34.84.4 Exxon Mobil (US$) XOMBuy 62.84 402,23911.710.210.09.97.97.06.86.78.57.46.96.8 International majors median 10.78.98.98.87.46.25.85.57.76.35.85.6 Regional majors ConocoPhillips (US$) COPBuy 67.19 93,3647.26.46.66.75.95.84.94.65.44.94.24.1 Occidental Petroleum (US$) OXYBuy 102.62 40,71210.78.68.88.37.35.55.45.07.45.55.34.9 Marathon (US$) MROSell 85.73 29,7229.58.17.97.36.35.14.74.36.25.24.64.1 Regional majors median 9.58.17.97.36.35.54.94.66.25.24.64.1 Emerging market oils CNOOC (HK$) 0883.HKBuy 6.35 33,43610.89.110.07.87.36.16.44.98.26.97.25.7 GAIL (Rs) (a) GAIL.BONeutral 247.75 4,5688.712.513.212.26.78.68.17.67.59.29.08.8 ONGC (Rs) (a) ONGC.BONeutral 1,091.90 33,9508.59.19.49.46.46.46.25.87.76.45.87.3 Petrobras (US$) PBRNeutral 87.21 91,4539.87.97.56.86.35.85.35.25.95.65.04.8 PetroChina (HK$) 0857.HKBuy 8.55 196,23511.39.610.18.87.55.85.85.28.06.46.35.7 PTT (Bt) PTT.BKBuy 232.00 17,1077.67.17.46.78.56.56.55.87.55.45.54.9 Sinopec (HK$) 0386.HKNeutral 4.43 49,1879.88.48.36.8 6.96.66.45.35.14.64.43.8 Reliance (Rs) (a) RELI.BONeutral 1,031.85 31,34415.816.519.215.713.013.815.812.012.012.914.811.1 Emerging market oils median 9.89.19.78.37.16.46.45.67.66.46.05.7 GSWTI oil price forecast (US$/bbl) 56.668.068.068.0 CROCI (%) Yield 20052006E 2007E 2008E (%) 12.814.313.614.03.2 15.516.116.014.92.0 14.115.214.814.42.6 16.914.215.014.12.3 18.119.217.616.71.4 15.916.516.216.22.0 16.916.516.216.22.0 27.726.320.221.83.5 15.511.811.110.63.2 17.615.414.513.86.4 19.917.319.217.73.4 21.422.619.619.14.7 20.723.719.919.24.3 12.512.011.011.63.3 12.27.25.97.11.0 18.816.416.815.83.4 (a) For fiscal year ending following March (i.e., FY2006 appears as 2005). Source: Company data, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,20063 Global exploration and production companies: Valuation analysis,2005-2008E GSPrice Mkt cap P/E (X) EV/DACF (X) P/GCF (X) Ticker Rating Jul 7 (US$mn) 20052006E 2007E 2008E 20052006E 2007E 2008E 20052006E 2007E US large/mid-cap E&P Anadarko Petroleum (US$) APCNeutral 45.7923,04817.617.512.410.910.210.47.46.39.88.46.4 Apache Corp (US$) APANeutral 67.8322,4168.77.56.56.05.14.53.73.24.74.03.5 Devon Energy Corp (US$) DVNNeutral 60.9630,4199.18.46.55.95.55.13.93.35.04.43.5 EOGResources (US$) EOGNeutral 69.0716,46513.313.39.99.17.16.75.44.87.16.75.3 Kerr-McGee (US$) KMGNeutral 69.5519,04515.714.710.98.67.07.45.85.06.77.05.4 Murphy Oil (US$) MURBuy 55.6710,40414.315.312.810.57.77.46.55.17.77.46.2 XTOEnergy (US$) XTOBuy 43.3614,61313.710.78.88.98.16.14.84.57.05.54.5 US large/mid-cap median 13.713.39.98.97.16.75.44.87.06.75.3 US small-cap E&P Newfield Exploration (US$) NFXBuy 46.895,56110.410.47.87.45.54.83.83.34.94.23.3 Noble Energy (US$) NBLNeutral 47.305,60311.58.97.97.96.64.84.23.85.54.33.8 Pioneer Natural Resources (US$) PXDNeutral 45.035,74116.221.512.110.75.87.86.05.24.66.84.9 Pogo Producing (US$) PPPNeutral 44.982,8967.98.16.26.15.04.73.73.43.33.02.4 US small-cap median 10.99.77.87.65.64.84.03.64.84.33.5 Asian E&P CNOOC (HK$) 0883.HKBuy 6.3533,43610.89.110.07.87.36.16.44.98.26.97.2 ONGC (Rs) (a) ONGC.BONeutral 1,091.9033,9508.59.19.49.46.46.46.25.87.77.77.5 PTTEP (Bt) PTTE.BKSell 110.009,46415.210.811.310.19.27.07.16.010.07.27.3 Asian median 10.89.110.09.47.36.46.45.88.27.27.3 INPEX (¥) 1605.TBuy* 1,030,00020,46619.116.513.913.57.97.16.36.09.08.67.6 CROCI (%) Yield 2008E 20052006E 2007E 2008E (%) 5.614.011.612.914.00.4 3.218.518.518.417.20.6 3.114.113.616.016.10.7 4.820.018.119.918.60.3 4.512.211.814.415.20.2 4.816.813.815.117.30.9 4.426.125.226.023.10.7 4.516.813.816.017.20.6 3.015.317.120.318.40.0 3.515.017.518.916.70.6 4.012.910.512.613.30.6 2.311.611.111.911.70.0 3.214.014.115.815.00.3 5.727.726.320.221.83.5 7.317.615.414.513.86.4 6.326.129.123.823.43.4 6.326.126.320.221.83.5 7.624.523.121.418.30.6 (a) For fiscal year ending following March (i.e., FY2006 appears as 2005). * This is in our Conviction Buy List. Source: Company data, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,20064 Global refiners: Valuation analysis,2005-2008E GSPrice P/E (X) Relative P/E (X) P/GCF (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Ticker rating Jul 720052006E 2007E 2008E 20052006E 20052006E 2007E 2008E 20052006E 2007E 2008E Taiwan (NT$) Formosa Petrochemical 6505.TWNeutral 63.3017,527 9.917.417.314.70.631.357.812.411.910.69.613.713.711.9 Korea (W) GSHoldings Corp (Parent) 078930.KSBuy* 31,2003,094 7.77.07.25.30.750.68 NMNMNMNM 8.77.27.45.5 S-Oil Corp 010950.KSNeutral 68,0005,782 8.66.27.27.70.850.616.55.56.06.36.35.25.86.5 S-Oil Corp (incl. treasury shares) 010950.KSNeutral 68,0008,078 10.88.09.39.91.060.799.17.68.38.86.35.25.86.5 SKCorp 003600.KSNeutral 62,7008,397 4.75.06.67.00.460.497.97.98.99.57.48.88.49.1 Thailand (Bt) Thai Oil TOP.BKBuy 65.003,495 7.16.97.47.00.750.764.64.34.34.05.45.14.74.1 Asian median 7.76.97.27.00.750.687.26.77.47.97.47.27.46.5 US (US$) Frontier Oil FTOSell 33.421,899 7.85.95.54.80.470.405.44.74.13.63.93.33.12.7 Sunoco SUNNeutral 68.379,401 9.37.46.45.70.560.506.04.94.23.74.83.93.43.0 Tesoro Petroleum TSONeutral 74.005,210 9.07.57.05.90.540.516.54.84.43.94.73.93.73.2 Valero/UDSVLONeutral 65.4438,479 9.76.56.15.40.580.448.25.24.74.26.24.03.73.3 US median 9.27.06.25.60.550.476.34.84.33.84.83.93.63.1 (US$mn) Market cap ROE (%) P/2006 Dividend 20052006E 2007E 2008EBV (X) yield (%) 29.415.014.115.62.53.5 17.917.315.518.51.24.0 24.828.423.620.11.98.1 14.418.415.013.31.48.1 22.216.412.010.60.93.0 31.125.519.717.61.65.0 24.817.315.517.61.64.0 71.062.251.846.13.60.7 55.352.449.647.63.51.4 35.932.727.626.82.20.5 34.737.031.429.22.10.4 45.644.740.537.62.80.6 (a) 2008E estimates are at normalized level. * This is in our Conviction Buy List. Source: Company data, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,20065 Global oil services companies: Valuation analysis,2005-2007E Price GSMkt cap P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) P/GCF (X) Ticker Jul 7 Rating (US$mn) 20052006E 2007E 20052006E 2007E 20052006E 2007E US integrated oilfield services Baker Hughes (US$) BHI 78.75 Neutral 26,28530.819.615.316.511.08.421.514.611.3 Halliburton (US$) HAL 72.61 Buy 31,73122.817.413.211.07.45.5 -138.814.611.8 Schlumberger (US$) SLB 62.75 Buy 73,93137.623.517.518.112.99.920.315.212.4 BJServices (US$) BJS 35.56 Neutral 11,39226.215.211.314.48.66.419.612.49.5 Weatherford (US$) WFT 48.29 Buy 12,94233.619.213.614.07.75.919.711.99.0 Oil States International (US$) OIS 33.39 Neutral 1,64714.69.98.88.45.94.99.47.06.4 Median 28.518.313.414.28.26.119.613.510.4 US geophysical/seismic Veritas DGC (US$) VTS 51.19 Neutral 1,71344.721.718.615.37.96.046.412.523.6 US offshore drillers Diamond Offshore (US$) DO 80.55 Buy 10,39347.914.68.520.58.04.424.110.97.0 ENSCOInternational (US$) ESV 44.32 Neutral 6,67924.09.06.212.25.33.314.77.25.3 GlobalSantaFe (US$) GSF 56.36 Neutral 13,21634.514.07.818.48.94.720.710.46.5 Noble Corporation (US$) NE 74.41 Neutral 9,98334.514.28.117.88.54.718.59.96.0 Pride International (US$) PDE 30.19 Sell 4,10040.914.47.29.05.32.69.77.34.7 Rowan Companies (US$) RDC 34.88 Neutral 3,67822.49.46.510.15.03.214.97.65.5 Transocean (US$) RIG 78.24 Neutral 25,10547.723.08.924.014.46.625.316.07.4 Median 34.514.27.817.88.04.418.59.96.0 Overall US median 34.114.98.814.87.95.219.611.47.2 COSL (HK$) 2883.HK 3.90 Sell 1,99819.922.520.09.69.08.410.48.67.4 COSL (with tax rebates) (HK$) 2883.HK 3.90 Sell 1,99819.917.615.79.68.98.310.48.67.4 EBITDANet debt/ ROACE (%) growth (%) mkt cap Yield 20052006E 2007E 20052006E 2007E (%) (%) 18.729.337.031.249.327.31.20.7 29.332.441.769.840.627.52.50.8 25.532.134.843.643.126.01.20.8 21.531.435.928.765.229.8 -2.40.6 9.312.916.358.080.330.411.20.0 14.516.616.983.940.812.223.70.0 20.130.435.350.846.227.41.90.6 8.418.220.3 (1.6) 75.812.6 -5.50.0 12.635.253.5174.7154.462.11.32.3 11.526.234.979.6115.237.33.40.2 7.919.533.3111.1100.669.1 -0.11.6 9.721.037.373.089.959.99.70.4 6.612.524.019.759.263.425.80.0 11.123.228.0157.2109.042.1 -1.61.6 6.712.728.833.169.0113.54.60.0 9.721.033.379.6100.662.13.40.4 11.322.134.063.972.433.91.90.5 10.47.87.315.417.115.3 -4.00.9 10.49.99.215.417.115.3 -4.01.5 Source: Company data, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,20066 Integrated oil companies' share price performance Price 12-month Absolute price performance (%) Relative price performance (%) Jul 07 High Low 1-wk 1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 3-yr 1-wk 1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 3-yr International majors BPAmoco (p) 647.50712.00586.001 6 (7) 1 1 60 3 5 (4) 3 (3) 25 Chevron (US$) 63.6865.7754.081 11 7 7 11 77 3 10 9 10 6 38 Exxon Mobil (US$) 62.8465.0055.201 7 1 5 6 77 2 6 4 7 1 38 Royal Dutch Shell (US$) 68.0070.0858.170 8 4 5 3 51 1 6 7 7 (1) 18 TotalFinaElf (EUR) 51.9056.3946.760 7 (6) (4) 2 62 1 3 (1) (6) (11) 2 Regional integrateds ConocoPhillips (US$) 67.1972.5057.351 11 1 11 12 154 2 10 3 13 7 98 ENI (EUR) 23.4324.8821.220 3 (3) (2) 4 82 1 1 3 (3) (6) 25 Occidental (US$) 102.62107.1369.94 (2) 6 6 13 27 212 (1) 5 9 15 21 144 PetroCanada(C$) 52.3858.5940.13 (1) 9 (9) 7 25 100 (1) 7 (4) 7 10 22 RepsolYPF (EUR) 22.5927.9620.21 (0) 6 (4) (13) (1) 61 (1) 1 (3) (18) (17) (5) Marathon (US$) 85.7386.0454.693 17 8 23 53 228 4 16 11 26 46 156 European integrateds Cepsa (EUR) 55.2555.4637.053 8 23 44 47 140 2 3 25 35 24 41 MOL (HUF) 23300.026665.018000.04 17 (4) 10 26 348 2 7 2 11 11 63 OMV (EUR) 48.6059.8635.593 22 (13) (5) 27 376 3 12 (5) (6) 3 65 Emerging market integrateds CNOOC (HK$) 6.356.854.602 13 2 13 32 161 1 3 4 (2) (9) 29 GAIL (Rs) 247.75320.15208.40 (2) 3 (20) (12) 12 128 0 (4) (12) (21) (23) (20) ONGC (Rs) 1091.901484.45916.20 (3) 10 (16) (9) 19 132 (1) 3 (6) (19) (19) (19) Petrobras (R$) 42.8048.1526.02 (2) 9 (3) 5 58 211 2 6 4 2 7 16 PetroChina (HK$) 8.559.555.652 13 1 28 44 280 1 7 2 21 22 130 PTT (Bt) 232.00270.00206.00 (1) 5 (7) (6) 9 234 (1) 2 2 4 3 131 Sinopec (HK$) 4.435.503.001 11 (7) 9 45 121 (0) 6 (7) 3 23 34 Reliance (Rs) 1031.851170.10373.84 (4) 12 24 95 181 421 (2) 4 37 75 92 82 Japan Market integrateds Nippon Oil (¥) 845.001082.00734.001 10 (10) (9) 14 68 2 5 2 (4) (15) 4 Note: Relative price performances are relative to local indexes. Source: Datastream. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,20067 Exploration and production companies' share price performance Price 12-month Absolute price performance (%) Relative price performance (%) Jul 07 High Low 1-wk 1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 3-yr 1-wk 1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 3-yr US large cap (US$) Anadarko 45.7956.7142.30 (6) (4) (14) (10) 4 109 (5) (5) (12) (8) (1) 63 Apache Corp 67.8377.2657.23 (1) 11 (1) (4) (2) 111 (0) 10 1 (2) (6) 65 Burlington Res 91.9193.1058.36 - - - 5 57 259 1 (1) 2 7 50 181 Devon Energy Res 60.9670.1849.10 (0) 15 (0) (8) 13 141 1 14 2 (7) 8 88 EOGResources 69.0784.8157.36 (3) 16 (7) (11) 14 251 (1) 14 (4) (10) 9 174 Kerr McGee 69.5569.5536.470 33 37 52 84 226 1 32 40 55 76 155 Murphy Oil 55.6759.1542.08 (0) 11 8 (1) 2 119 1 10 10 1 (2) 71 Noble Affiliates 47.3048.6735.96 (1) 18 5 11 19 161 0 17 8 13 14 104 Canadian (C$) Canadian Natural Resources 58.3273.9144.50 (6) 5 (16) (4) 21 341 (6) 5 (16) (4) 21 290 Canadian Occidental 62.1968.9740.81 (1) 8 (10) 4 45 274 (1) 8 (10) 4 45 230 Encana 58.0069.4846.33 (1) 10 6 9 9 133 (1) 10 6 9 9 106 Nexen 62.1968.9740.81 (1) 8 (10) 4 45 274 (1) 8 (10) 4 45 230 Talisman Energy 19.1924.7515.98 (1) 5 (12) (12) 14 183 (1) 5 (12) (12) 14 150 Asia Pacific & Russian E&P CNOOC (HK$) 6.356.854.602 13 2 13 32 161 1 3 4 (2) (9) 29 ONGC (Rs) 1091.901484.45916.20 (3) 10 (16) (9) 19 132 (1) 3 (6) (19) (19) (19) PTTEP (Bt) 110.00135.0074.80 - 8 (5) 6 46 262 (0) 5 5 17 37 150 Santos (A$) 12.3813.4710.552 12 4 (1) 15 106 1 8 6 (7) (6) 22 Woodside (A$) 46.0049.0928.713 11 2 13 57 259 2 8 3 6 29 113 Oil Search (A$) 4.254.583.131 5 5 12 30 406 (0) 1 6 5 7 200 Aus.Worldwide Expl'n (A$) 3.333.451.86 (2) 9 27 38 67 296 (3) 6 28 29 38 135 Roc Oil (A$) 4.414.432.08 (0) 18 38 68 119 274 (1) 14 40 57 81 122 Tap Oil (A$) 2.103.221.742 17 (8) (25) (16) 46 1 13 (7) (30) (31) (14) INPEX (¥) 1,030,000 1,310,000 647,0003 19 (16) (4) NANA 4 13 (5) 2 NANA Lukoil (US$) 84.7094.7038.651 19 (3) 33 114 377 Sibneft (US$) 3.815.503.00 - (14) (23) (1) 10 56 Yukos (US$) 1.252.220.58 - 10 26 (38) 105 (90) European E&P Statoil (Nkr) 187.00210.50134.254 13 (5) 15 27 217 4 8 (2) 11 13 117 BGGroup (p) 736.00782.50450.25 (0) 8 (2) 23 54 180 (0) 4 1 19 37 91 Note: Relative price performances are relative to local indexes. Source: Datastream. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,20068 Refiners' share price performance Price 12-month Absolute price performance (%) Relative price performance (%) Jul 7 High Low 1-wk 1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 3-yr 1-wk 1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 3-yr India (Rs) Bharat Petroleum 337.30485.05298.700 4 (25) (26) (6) 15 2 (3) (17) (34) (36) (60) Hindustan Petroleum 224.35357.20213.30 (5) (4) (31) (33) (26) (36) (3) (10) (23) (40) (49) (78) Indian Oil Corporation 409.05612.30314.051 20 (31) (26) (1) 49 3 12 (23) (34) (32) (48) Castrol India 165.95272.90155.45 (1) (4) (33) (38) (28) (18) 1 (10) (26) (44) (51) (71) Japan (¥) Cosmo Oil 521.00692.00472.00 (1) 5 (19) (14) 9 163 (0) 0 (8) (9) (19) 63 Nippon Oil 845.001,082.00734.001 10 (10) (9) 14 68 2 5 2 (4) (15) 4 Showa Shell Sekiyu 1,350.001,592.001,117.001 5 (2) (5) 21 65 2 0 10 (0) (9) 2 TonenGeneral 1,162.001,347.001,088.00 (0) 4 (5) (9) (4) 47 1 (1) 7 (4) (28) (9) Nippon Mining Holdings 933.001,152.00621.00 (3) 1 (9) 6 48 276 (2) (4) 3 12 11 133 Korea (W) GSHoldings 31,20032,60022,3002 14 6 16 27 NA 4 11 16 27 2 NA S-Oil Corp 68,00086,20060,0001 7 (9) (3) (17) 237 3 4 0 6 (34) 85 SKCorp 62,70073,20048,6003 2 (7) 8 13 386 4 (1) 2 19 (9) 167 Malaysia (RM) Esso Malaysia 2.412.822.3201 (4) (2) (3) 16 (0) 0 (2) (4) (6) (9) Petronas Dagangan 3.984.283.66 (2) 4 (3) (1) (3) 30 (3) 3 (2) (2) (6) 1 Shell Ref Co Bhd 10.6012.209.654 8 (1) 2 7 159 3 61 15 102 Philippines (P) Petron Corp 3.955.002.8031 (9) (20) 39 88 (0) (3) (11) (24) 15 7 Taiwan (NT$) Formosa Petrochemical 63.3063.7056.4028 7 9 4 NA 3 5 8 10 (3) NA Thailand (Bt) Thai Oil 65.0076.5057.002 8 (4) (2) 8 NA 1 6 6 8 2 NA Bangchak Petroleum 11.3015.5011.200 (7) (19) (15) (17) 32 (0) (9) (11) (6) (22) (9) US (US$) Sunoco 68.3796.2158.91 (1) 4 (15) (22) 14 261 0 3 (13) (20) 9 182 Valero/UDS 65.4469.1039.86 (2) 10 5 15 55 602 (1) 9 7 17 48 449 Ashland 65.8074.5551.23 (2) 7 (6) 1 5 154 (0) 6 (4) 3 1 99 Frontier Oil 33.4233.7413.78 (1) 28 12 63 102 768 0 26 15 66 93 578 Singapore (SG$) Singapore Petroleum 5.106.004.381 5 (6) (4) (1) 332 1 0 (2) (5) (10) 169 Note: Relative price performances are relative to local indexes. Source: Datastream. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,20069 Oil service companies' share price performance Price 12-month Absolute price performance (%) Relative price performance (%) Jul 7 High Low 1-wk 1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 3-yr 1-wk 1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 3-yr US integrated oilfield services (US$) Baker Hughes 78.75 88.60 51.20 (6) (4) 9 16 50 142 (5) (5) 11 18 44 89 Halliburton 72.61 83.33 46.42 (3) - (8) 6 50 219 (2) (1) (6) 8 44 149 Schlumberger 62.75 73.37 37.91 (4) 6 (3) 17 62 169 (3) 5 (1) 19 55 110 BJServices 35.56 42.75 26.70 (6) (1) 0 (10) 32 97 (5) (2) 3 (8) 26 54 Weatherford 48.29 58.14 28.86 (5) (2) 3 20 66 147 (4) (3) 5 23 59 93 Oil States International 33.39 42.95 25.69 (4) 3 (14) (12) 25 175 (3) 2 (12) (10) 20 115 US geophysical/seismic (US$) Veritas DGC 51.19 53.90 27.76 (4) 13 7 24 82 369 (3) 12 10 26 75 267 US offshore drillers (US$) Diamond Offshore 80.55 96.15 51.46 (6) 5 (15) 5 49 289 (5) 4 (12) 7 43 204 ENSCOInternational 44.32 57.89 35.82 (5) (4) (19) (13) 19 69 (4) (5) (17) (11) 14 32 GlobalSantaFe 56.36 65.15 39.73 (4) 4 (12) 2 37 143 (2) 3 (10) 4 31 89 Noble Corporation 74.41 85.25 58.40 (2) 12 (12) (4) 20 123 (1) 10 (10) (2) 15 75 Pride International 30.19 36.87 23.67 (4) (2) (11) (11) 19 66 (3) (3) (9) (9) 14 30 Rowan Companies 34.88 47.95 29.40 (5) (6) (23) (15) 12 61 (4) (7) (22) (13) 7 26 Transocean 78.24 88.97 53.39 (4) 3 (7) 2 42 269 (3) 2 (5) 4 36 188 Asian oilfield services COSL (HK$) 3.90 4.80 2.68 - 11 (5) 15 28 109 (1) 0 (4) (1) (13) 3 Note: Relative price performances are relative to local indexes. Source: Datastream. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200610 Key commodity prices and margins GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200611 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price,1993-2006 YTD (US$/bbl) 19931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 1Q 19.8714.7918.3219.7422.8415.9313.1528.8428.7521.5833.9535.2549.8663.27 2Q 19.7717.7819.3021.7819.9214.5617.6928.8427.9126.3029.0838.3153.0970.56 3Q 17.7918.4617.8622.3119.7714.1421.7431.7026.7328.3430.2543.8363.2174.69 4Q 16.4117.6618.1324.7219.8712.7924.6232.0420.4128.2831.1848.1859.98 Year 18.4517.1818.4022.1620.6014.3519.3230.3625.9326.1431.1041.4356.58 ytd 67.21 Jun. avg Mom change (%) Crt. wk Change (%) (US$/bbl) Jun May Apr (US$/bbl) -1 wk -2 wk -3 wk -4 wk 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 70.96 (0.0) 1.810.874.692.86.87.54.368.068.068.068.0 WTI estimate (US$/bbl) 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 JFMAMJJASOND 20022003200420052006 (US$/barrel) Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200612 Spread of WTI versus other crude,1993-2010N and normalized estimates (US$/bbl) 199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200506ytd 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010N WTI 18.417.218.422.220.614.419.330.425.926.131.141.456.667.268.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 45.0 Brent 17.015.817.020.719.112.817.928.424.425.028.838.254.566.066.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 43.0 Minas 17.916.217.620.719.312.417.828.824.125.729.636.954.166.267.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 42.0 Dubai 14.814.716.118.518.112.217.226.122.823.826.833.649.461.762.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 40.0 Arab heavy 13.113.615.518.317.311.016.125.321.923.326.531.344.956.958.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 39.0 WTI versus Brent 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.1 2.3 3.2 2.1 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 WTI versus Minas 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.3 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.8 0.4 1.5 4.5 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 WTI versus Dubai 3.6 2.5 2.3 3.7 2.5 2.1 2.1 4.2 3.2 2.4 4.3 7.8 7.2 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 WTI versus Arab heavy 5.3 3.6 2.9 3.8 3.3 3.4 3.2 5.1 4.1 2.8 4.6 10.111.710.310.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 6.0 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 9091929394959697989900010203040506 US$/bbl (5.00) - 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 US$/bblWTI (left scale) WTI–Minas WTI–Dubai WTI–Brent Source: Datastream, Platt’s, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200613 Hydrocarbon net speculative length versus WTI oil prices -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Mar- 95 Sep- 95 Mar- 96 Sep- 96 Mar- 97 Sep- 97 Mar- 98 Sep- 98 Mar- 99 Sep- 99 Mar- 00 Sep- 00 Mar- 01 Sep- 01 Mar- 02 Sep- 02 Mar- 03 Sep- 03 Mar- 04 Sep- 04 Mar- 05 Sep- 05 Mar- 06 (mn bbls) 048 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 (US$/bbl) Hydrocarbon net speculative length (LHS) WTI crude oil price (RHS) Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Datastream. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200614 Singapore refining margins,1990-2006 YTD Simple refining margins Complex margins (US$/bbl) 1997199819992000200120022003200420052006 (US$/bbl) 1997199819992000200120022003200420052006 1Q 2.471.181.062.641.010.864.253.282.162.331Q 5.293.262.254.483.422.276.267.307.566.54 2Q 2.351.870.382.171.141.092.112.333.413.342Q 4.483.811.803.563.302.543.306.688.1510.71 3Q 1.680.450.832.801.131.382.233.213.340.763Q 3.421.882.635.802.362.354.418.159.958.90 4Q 1.591.591.152.411.652.352.596.363.804Q 3.402.542.094.182.553.535.5311.528.20 Year 2.021.270.852.501.231.422.813.803.18 Year 4.152.872.194.502.902.684.898.428.47 ytd 2.70 ytd 8.72 Weekly margins Current -1 wk -2 wk -3 wk -4 wk Weekly margins Current -1 wk -2 wk -3 wk -4 wk (US$/bbl) 0.311.681.683.492.54 (US$/bbl) 8.119.229.2211.0110.64 Simple refining margins estimates (US$/bbl) Complex margins estimates (US$/bbl) 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009ENormalized 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009ENormalized 3.003.003.003.002.009.009.009.009.005.00 (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Jan- 90 Jul- 90 Jan- 91 Jul- 91 Jan- 92 Jul- 92 Jan- 93 Jul- 93 Jan- 94 Jul- 94 Jan- 95 Jul- 95 Jan- 96 Jul- 96 Jan- 97 Jul- 97 Jan- 98 Jul- 98 Jan- 99 Jul- 99 Jan- 00 Jul- 00 Jan- 01 Jul- 01 Jan- 02 Jul- 02 Jan- 03 Jul- 03 Jan- 04 Jul- 04 Jan- 05 Jul- 05 Jan- 06 Jul- 06 (US$/bbl) Simple refining margins (monthly) Complex margins (monthly) Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Platt’s. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200615 Key refinery product prices and margins Gasoline 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Jan 00 Jul 00 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 US$/bbl 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 US$/bbl Spread over Dubai Price (RHS) Kerosene 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan 00 Jul 00 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 US$/bbl 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 US$/bbl Spread over Dubai Price (RHS) G asoil 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan 00 Ju l 00 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Ju l 02 Jan 03 Ju l 03 Jan 04 Ju l 04 Jan 05 Ju l 05 Jan 06 Ju l 06 US$/bbl 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 US$/bbl Spread over D ubai Price (RHS) Fuel O il -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 Jan 00 Jul 00 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 US$/bbl 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 US$/bbl Spread over Dubai Price (RHS) Source: Platt’s. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200616 Demand and supply trends GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200617 Monthly Asian energy macro data,2001-2006 YTD 2003 Full yr Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Full yr Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Full yr Jan Feb Mar Apr Ytd Oil demand growth (% chg yoy) China (a) (b) 11152114212529146910161116644 (1) (2) (3) 2585123026104 India 14812181117 (2) 66 (4) 26403 (5) (2) 0 (5) 12 (3) (3) (3) (2) 0 (1) 3 (2) 62 Japan 1 (3) (8) (5) (2) (5) (5) 35 (2) (4) (5) (6) (3) (1) 423 (3) 6 (3) (4) 4 (8) 3610 (6) (8) (2) (4) Korea 1 (5) (6) 35 (2) (1) (1) 44 (3) (5) (2) (1) 2365 (1) 100 (1) (8) 221 (2) (2) (8) (6) (5) Thailand 46111212131212111110109113333343333213100 (0) 0 Refinery utilization (%) India 1021061081061011031059898971001019910210210410192961021001001001041019410010811110693104 Japan 8488918984727283908079889184909391857679848988878893879492928591 Korea 8288888685817871818287919284898889818577827885879192859289888588 Singapore 7472757980728477878989869282867382698384868582858085828377796777 Thailand 87969682969494999392999910195988694989397989495898394939894959896 20042006 YTD2005 (a) Apparent oil demand for China. (b) For January and February, the Lunar New Year (LNY) affects demand. The LNY falls on different dates each year, making demand growth more volatile in the first quarter. Source: Indian Ministry of Petroleum, International Energy Agency (IEA), PTIT, Korean National Oil Corp, Petroleum Association of Japan. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200618 China import and export data: Crude oil and total refined products Net imports/ (exports) Implied IEA (in mn bbl/d) Crude production Crudes Refined products apparent demand reported demand A yoy B yoy C yoy A+B+C yoy (a) yoy 2004 Annual average 3.49 2% 2.35 41% 0.66 50% 6.50 18% 6.38 16% 2005 Annual average 3.61 3% 2.39 2% 0.49 -26% 6.49 0% 6.54 3% 2006 Jan 3.68 5% 3.00 74% 0.47 -25% 7.15 22% 6.55 0% Feb 3.66 1% 2.92 9% 0.52 -8% 7.10 4% 6.69 1% Mar 3.70 3% 2.70 6% 0.55 68% 6.95 8% 6.69 6% Apr 3.68 2% 2.78 3% 0.65 63% 7.11 6% 7.09 10% May 3.67 1% 2.90 20% 0.68 351% 7.25 17% Average (ytd) 3.68 3% 2.86 23% 0.57 90% 7.11 11% 6.75 4% Note: (a) IEA reported demand is production of refined products + net import of refined products + adjustments for independent refiners. Source: IEA, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. C rude oil (net im ports) 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000 123456789101112 (Thousand tonnes) 200620052004 20032002 R efined products (net im ports) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 123456789101112 (Thousand tonnes) 200620052004 20032002 Source: CEIC. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200619 China import and export data: Gasoline, kerosene, diesel, and fuel oil Gasoline (net exports) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 123456789101112 (Thousand tonnes) 200620052004 20032002 Kerosene (net imports) -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 123456789101112 (Thousand tonnes) 200620052004 20032002 Diesel (net exports) -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 123456789101112 (Thousand tonnes) 200620052004 20032002 Fuel oil (net imports) 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 123456789101112 (Thousand tonnes) 200620052004 20032002 Source: CEIC. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200620 OPEC monthly production and quota compliance OPEC production vs. sustainable capacity Total OPEC (ex Iraq) production versus quota 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 26,000 27,000 28,000 29,000 Ja n- 00 Ap r-0 0 Ju l-0 0 O ct -0 0 Ja n- 01 Ap r-0 1 Ju l-0 1 O ct -0 1 Ja n- 02 Ap r-0 2 Ju l-0 2 O ct -0 2 Ja n- 03 Ap r-0 3 Ju l-0 3 O ct -0 3 Ja n- 04 Ap r-0 4 Ju l-0 4 O ct -0 4 Ja n- 05 Ap r-0 5 Ju l-0 5 O ct -0 5 Ja n- 06 Ap r-0 6 Production Quota (000s b/d) OPEC exceeding quota significantly Implied ('000 b/d) Production Quota Sustainable capacity (a) overproduction vs quota Capacity vs production Saudi Arabia (b) 9,3509,09910,8002511,450 Iran (b) 3,7004,1104,000 (410) 300 Kuwait 2,5002,2472,600253100 UAE 2,5602,4442,700116140 Qatar 8107268308420 Venezuela (c) 2,5803,2232,750 (643) 170 Nigeria 2,2502,3062,600 (56) 350 Libya 1,7001,5001,7002000 Algeria 1,3808941,370486 (10) Indonesia 9001,451980 (551) 80 OPEC-1027,73028,00030,330 (270) 2,600 Iraq 2,0902,500410 Total OPEC 29,82032,8303,010 June 2006 (a) Capacity levels can be reached within 30 days and sustained for 90 days. (b) Includes half of Neutral Zone Production. (c) Includes upgraded Orinoco extra-heavy oil capacity of 590 kb/d and production. Source: IEA monthly report, Bloomberg. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200621 Key upcoming events Ticker Name Country/region Event date Event 0386.HKSinopec China Mid July 1H2006 operating results 0857.HKPetroChina China Mid July 1H2006 operating results GAIL.BOGAILIndia LTDIndia Jul-19-20061QFY2007 results (a) 003600.KSSKCorp. Korea Jul-24-20061H2006 results PTTEP.BKPTTEPThailand Jul-24-20061H2006 results ONGC.BOOil & Natural Gas Corp. India Jul-25-20061QFY2007 results (a) RIL.BOReliance Industries India Jul-26-20061QFY2007 results (a) 010950.KSS-Oil Korea Aug-7-20061H2006 results 078930.KSGSHoldings Korea Early August 1H2006 results 1605.TINPEXJapan Aug-11-20061QFY2006 results (b) PTT.BKPTTThailand Aug-11-20061H2006 results 0857.HKPetroChina China Aug-16-20061H2006 results 2883.HKChina Oilfield Services Limited China Aug-22-20061H2006 results 0386.HKSinopec China Aug-23-20061H2006 results 6505.TWFormosa Petrochemical Taiwan Aug-25-20061H2006 results 0883.HKCNOOCChina Aug-28-20061H2006 results (a) FY2007 refers to year ended Mar 2007. (b) FY2006 refers to year ended Mar 2007. Source: StreetEvents, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200622 Publications in past two weeks ACTION: Thai Oil: Key beneficiary of extended refinery upcycle; reiterate Buy (July 5) INDUSTRY: Asia Pacific: Energy: Extending up-cycle through 2009; affirm Attractive coverage view (July 6) Japan: Energy—Oil: Now expect crude prices to remain high through 2009 (June 28) COMPANYUPDATE: GSHoldings: Strong 2Q06 results outlook, more to come, reaffirm Buy (July 7) GSHoldings: PX, looming as another cyclical upside (July 7) GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200623 Disclosures GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200624 RegAC I, Kelvin Koh, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. 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Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200626 because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. 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It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this research and the GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research - July 11,200627 income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Current options disclosure documents are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at or from Research Compliance, One New York Plaza, New York, NY 10004. Copyright 2006 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Stock ideas, industry trends, valuation and performance Goldman Sachs Pan-Asia Investment Research Goldman Sachs Co-Directors of Pan-Asia Research Paul D. Bernard, CFA 852-2978-1587 Kathy Matsui 81-3-6437-9950 Director of Asia-Pacific Research Joseph B. Lee, CFA 852-2978-1390 Director of Japan Research Kunihiko Shiohara, CMA 81-3-6437-9915 Pan-Asia Technology Economics Sun Bae Kim 852-2978-1896 Adam Le Mesurier 65-6889-2478 Hong Liang 852-2978-0036 Enoch Fung 852-2978-0784 Helen (Hong) Qiao 852-2978-1630 Asia ex-Japan Conglomerates Mike Warren 852-2978-1383 Christina Hee, CFA 65-6889-2462 Rick Loo, CFA 65-6889-2491 David Ng, CFA 65-6889-2483 Edward Chan 852-2978-1642 Consumer / Retail Manning Doherty 852-2978-1024 Sang Hee Park 82-2-3788-1725 Yifan Deng* 86-10-6535-3036 Strategy Timothy Moe, CFA 852-2978-1328 Christopher Eoyang 852-2978-0800 Terence Lim 82-2-3788-1655 Thomas Deng, CFA 852-2978-1062 Rick Loo, CFA 65-6889-2491 Kenneth Kok, CFA 852-2978-0960 Percy Wong, CFA 852-2978-0183 Sean Choi 82-2-3788-1723 Automobiles Rajeev Das 82-2-3788-1178 Manning Doherty 852-2978-1024 Charles Min 82-2-3788-1175 Financials Roy Ramos 852-2978-0457 Philippa Rogers, CFA 852-2978-1697 Martin Printz 886-2-2730-4191 Ning Ma 852-2978-1677 Adrian Tan 65-6889-2465 Darwin Lam, CFA 852-2978-0528 Media / Entertainment James Mitchell, CFA 852-2978-1450 Kit Low 852-2978-0856 Sang Hee Park 82-2-3788-1725 Property Anthony Wu 852-2978-0634 Carmen Tang, CFA 852-2978-0037 Yi Wang, CFA* 86-10-6535-3022 Steel / Machinery Rajeev Das 82-2-3788-1178 Charles Min 82-2-3788-1175 Oil & Gas / Chemicals Kelvin Koh, CFA 852-2978-1218 Kenneth Whee 82-2-3788-1791 Jim Hung 886-2-2730-4185 Transportation Jean-Louis Morisot 65-6889-2466 Julie Lim 65-6889-2470 Matthew Chan, CFA 65-6889-2480 Bingchao Cao* 86-10-6535-3023 Telecommunications Helen Zhu 852-2978-0048 Hugh Chung 82-2-3788-1646 Coo Way Law, CFA 65-6889-2489 Hao Fei Chen* 86-10-6535-3063 Kathy Chen 852-2978-1291 Utilities Stephen Oldfield 852-2978-1326 Franklin Chow, CFA* 86-10-6535-3012 Economics Tetsufumi Yamakawa 81-3-6437-9960 Naoki Murakami 81-3-6437-9965 Yuriko Tanaka 81-3-6437-9964 Strategy Kathy Matsui 81-3-6437-9950 Takashi Suwabe 81-3-6437-9966 Hiromi Suzuki 81-3-6437-9955 Christopher Eoyang 852-2978-0800 Autos Kunihiko Shiohara, CMA 81-3-6437-9915 Toru Yaezawa 81-3-6437-9843 Auto Parts Kunihiko Shiohara, CMA 81-3-6437-9915 Kota Yuzawa 81-3-6437-9863 Construction & Housing / Real Estate Hirokazu Anai 81-3-6437-9945 Atsuko Chiyoda 81-3-6437-9946 Financials / Banks David Atkinson 81-3-6437-9970 Tomishi Ishida 81-3-6437-9975 Financials / Other Takehito Yamanaka, CMA 81-3-6437-9980 Yuki Kimura, CMA 81-3-6437-9918 Japan Machinery Shinji Kuroda 81-3-6437-9925 Oil & Gas Yukihiro Iwasaki 81-3-6437-9907 Food / Consumer Products Katsunori Tanaka 81-3-6437-9973 Insurance Tomishi Ishida 81-3-6437-9975 Goldman Sachs JBWere Australia E-mail: firstname.lastname@gs.com, firstname.lastname@ghsl.cn, firstname.lastname@gsjbw.com * Gao Hua Securities Business Unit Leaders Shin Horie, CMA 81-3-6437-9850 Henry King 886-2-2730-4181 Telecom / Internet / ITServices Yoshio Ando, CMA 81-3-6437-9840 Trading Companies Kenichiro Yoshida 81-3-6437-9890 Yukihiro Iwasaki 81-3-6437-9907 Internet James Mitchell, CFA 852-2978-1450 Kit Low 852-2978-0856 Hugh Chung 82-2-3788-1646 Components Daiki Takayama, CMA 81-3-6437-9870 Consumer Electronics Yuji Fujimori, CMA 81-3-6437-9880 Kei Nihonyanagi 81-3-6437-9883 Cheryl Tang* 86-10-6535-3007 Semiconductors / Industrial Electronics Ikuo Matsuhashi, CMA 81-3-6437-9860 Joey Cheng 886-2-2730-4186 Seung Hoon Han 82-2-3788-1778 Helen Huang 886-2-2730-4190 Donald Lu 886-2-2730-4187 Semiconductors / Production Equipment / Precision Shin Horie, CMA 81-3-6437-9850 Toshiya Hari 81-3-6437-9853 Display Yuji Fujimori, CMA 81-3-6437-9880 Seung Hoon Han 82-2-3788-1778 Helen Huang 886-2-2730-4190 Kei Nihonyanagi 81-3-6437-9883 Charles Park 82-2-3788-1176 Hardware Shin Horie, CMA 81-3-6437-9850 Henry King 886-2-2730-4181 Emily Chang 886-2-2730-4182 Joey Cheng 886-2-2730-4186 Seung Hoon Han 82-2-3788-1778 Ikuo Matsuhashi, CMA 81-3-6437-9860 Charles Park 82-2-3788-1176 Mid Caps Sean Choi 82-2-3788-1723 Jim Hung 886-2- 2730-4185 Communications Technology Joey Cheng 886-2-2730-4186 Charles Park 82-2-3788-1176 Chemicals Hisaaki Yokoo 81-3-6437-9930 Retailing Sho Kawano 81-3-6437-9905 Head of Research, Australia Alastair Hunter 61-3-9679-1234 Economics Tim Toohey 61-3-9679-1079 David Colosimo 61-3-9679-1085 Banking James Freeman 61-2-9321-8999 Beverages / Transport Paul Ryan 61-3-9679-1050 Diversified Industrials / Building Materials / Chemicals Matthew McNee 61-3-9679-1426 Emerging Companies George Batsakis 61-3-9679-1245 Nga Luu 61-2-9321-8540 Greg Ward 61-3-9679-1119 Strategy & Deputy Head of Research Christopher Pidcock 61-3-9679-1862 Gaming / Paper & Packaging / Diversified Financials (BCA, CPU) Ashwini Chandra 61-2-9321-8920 Energy & Utilities Anthony Bishop 61-3-9679-1120 Media—Domestic Christian Guerra 61396791302 Insurance / Diversified Financials Ryan Fisher 61-2-9321-8857 Media—News Corporation David Roberts 61-3-9679-1103 Quantitative Andrew Gray 61-3-9679-1435 Sam Ferraro 61-3-9679-1123 John Nardi 61-3-9679-1562 Robert Pinnuck 61-3-9679-1117 Matthew Ross 61-3-9679-1616 Infrastructure Alison Booth 61-3-9679-1747 Resources / Base Metals Malcolm Southwood 61-3-9679-1647 Neil Goodwill 61-3-9679-1778 Ian Preston 61-3-9679-1453 Real Estate Investment Trusts (including Developers & Contractors) Simon Scott 61-2-9321-8619 James Cornell 61-2-9321-8635 Quentin Velleley 61-2-9321-8719 Telecommunications Christian Guerra 61-3-9679-1302 Head of Research, New Zealand Peter Sigley 64-9-357-3231 Economics Bernard Doyle 64-9-357-3297 Shamubeel Eaqub 64-9-363-1915 Building Materials / Retailers Terry Tolich 64-9-357-3281 Gaming / Healthcare / Ports / Services Marcus Curley 64-9-363-1916 Telecommunications / Media Andrew White 64-9-357-3206 New Zealand Airlines, Airports / Infrastructure & Utilities / Property Trusts Peter Sigley 64-9-357-3231 Quantitative Hayden Griffiths 64-9-357-3295 International Commodities Paul Gray 44-20-7367-8413 Marc Bonter 44-20-7367-8435 Retailers / Food/Household Goods Phillip Kimber 61-3-9679-1128 Steel Andrew Gibson 61-3-9679-1122 Manufacturing Rodney Deacon 64-9-363-1912 J-REITs Atsuko Chiyoda 81-3-6437-9946 Regional Banks Ben Koo 61-2-9321-8543 Steel Rajeev Das 82-2-3788-1178 Yukihiro Iwasaki 81-3-6437-9907 Pharmaceuticals Kyoko Sato 81-3-6437-9943 Infrastructure / Property Trusts Matt Henry 64-9-357-3203 Healthcare Hamish Tadgell 61-3-9679-1124 Small-Cap / Special Situations Yukihiro Moroe 81-3-6437-9900 Hiroyuki Asakawa 81-3-6437-9910Healthcare Joy Yuan* 86-10-6535-3091 Resources Song Shen 852-2978-1131 Media Kenichiro Yoshida 81-3-6437-9890

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