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(无)研究报告:泛亚石油化工行业综述-060726

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July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1 July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy GSWildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly Valuation and performance In the past month, the MSCIAsia-Pacific Oil and Gas Index has risen 6%, outperforming the MSCIAsia- Pacific Index by 6 percentage points (pp). Within our Asia-Pacific Energy coverage universe, the top outperformers (versus the MSCIAsia-Pacific Oil and Gas Index) were COSL and PTTEP, outperforming by 15 and 9 pp, respectively. Our top picks in Asia ex-Japan are CNOOC (Buy), GSHoldings (Conviction Buy), PetroChina (Buy), PTT (Buy) and Thai Oil (Buy) in the context of our Attractive coverage view. Stock focus PetroChina reported strong operating data for 1H2006, especially for the gas division, given both higher-than- expected gas volume and prices. We forecast a net profit of Rmb78 bn in 1H2006E, implying year-on-year growth of 26%. We believe the natural gas business remains the main potential source of upside surprise to our near- and medium-term forecasts. We retain our Buy rating on PetroChina. Industry trends China’s net imports of refinery products have risen significantly, by 62% yoy in June. Coupled with 6% yoy growth in crude throughput, we expect China’s apparent oil consumption to have risen by 11% yoy in June. Macro snapshot @Jul 21,2006 Spot WoW US$/bbl US$/bbl % Crude oil prices WTI 73.1 (3.9) -5.1% Brent 72.9 (3.2) -4.3% Dubai 68.2 (3.3) -4.6% Minas 74.8 (3.6) -4.5% Arab heavy 65.21.62.5% Crude oil prices spread WTI-Brent 0.2 (0.7) -78.7% WTI-Dubai 4.9 (0.7) -12.3% WTI-Minas (1.7) (0.4) NM WTI-Arab heavy 7.9 (5.5) -41.2% Singapore refining margins Complex margin 8.4 (0.8) -8.8% Simple margin 0.7 (1.0) -57.8% Singapore product prices Gasoline 84.8 (3.8) -4.3% Naphtha 70.5 (3.4) -4.7% Kerosene 87.6 (2.9) -3.2% Gasoil 84.7 (4.0) -4.5% Fuel oil 53.2 (3.0) -5.4% Source: DataStream. Kelvin Koh, CFA +852-2978-1218 | kelvin.koh@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Kenneth Whee +82(2)3788-1791 | kenneth.whee@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch Jim Hung +886(2) 2730-4185 | jim.hung@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch Yukihiro Iwasaki +81(3)6437-9907 | yukihiro.iwasaki@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not required to take the NASD/NYSE analyst exam. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the text preceding the disclosures. For other important disclosures go to /research/hedge.html. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 Table of contents Sector performance 4 Key refinery product prices and margins 4 Valuation and performance 5 Global integrated oil companies: Valuation analysis,2005-2008E 5 Global exploration and production companies: Valuation analysis,2005-2008E 6 Global refiners: Valuation analysis,2005-2008E 7 Global oil services companies: Valuation analysis,2005-2007E 8 Integrated oil companies' share price performance 9 Exploration and production companies' share price performance 10 Refiners' share price performance 11 Oil service companies' share price performance 12 Key commodity prices and margins 13 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price,1993-2006 YTD 13 Spread of WTI versus other crude,1993-2010N and normalized estimates 14 Hydrocarbon net speculative length versus WTI oil prices 15 Singapore refining margins,1990-2006 YTD 16 Key refinery product prices and margins 17 Demand and supply trends 18 Monthly Asian energy macro data,2001-2006 YTD 18 China import and export data: Crude oil and total refined products 19 China import and export data: Gasoline, kerosene, diesel, and fuel oil 20 OPEC monthly production and quota compliance 21 Key upcoming events 22 Publications in past two weeks 22 The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of July 21,2006. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3 Sector performance MSCIOil and Gas Index versus MSCIAsia-Pacific Index and Brent crude oil prices 80 130 180 230 280 330 380 430 480 Ja n- 02 A pr -0 2 Ju l-0 2 O ct -0 2 Ja n- 03 A pr -0 3 Ju l-0 3 O ct -0 3 Ja n- 04 A pr -0 4 Ju l-0 4 O ct -0 4 Ja n- 05 A pr -0 5 Ju l-0 5 O ct -0 5 Ja n- 06 A pr -0 6 Ju l-0 6 (Index) MSCIACAsia-Pacific Oil and Gas Index MSCIACAsia Pacific Index 90 140 190 240 290 340 390 440 490 Ja n- 02 A pr -0 2 Ju l-0 2 O ct -0 2 Ja n- 03 A pr -0 3 Ju l-0 3 O ct -0 3 Ja n- 04 A pr -0 4 Ju l-0 4 O ct -0 4 Ja n- 05 A pr -0 5 Ju l-0 5 O ct -0 5 Ja n- 06 A pr -0 6 Ju l-0 6 (Index) 18 28 38 48 58 68 78 88 (US$/bbl)MSCIACAsia-Pacific Oil and Gas Index (left scale) Brent crude oil (right scale) Source: Datastream. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4 Valuation and performance Global integrated oil companies: Valuation analysis,2005-2008E GSPrice Mkt cap P/E (X) EV/debt adj cash flow (X) Ticker rating Jul 21 (US$mn) 20052006E 2007E 2008E 20052006E 2007E 2008E International majors BPAmoco Arco (US$) BPSell 68.19 251,30111.59.98.68.08.07.56.45.8 Chevron (US$) CVXNeutral 64.45 135,8049.97.77.87.96.95.44.94.4 Exxon Mobil (US$) XOMBuy 63.93 409,21611.910.410.210.18.17.26.96.8 Royal Dutch Shell (US$) RDSa.ASBuy 66.90 227,97110.68.88.58.06.25.75.85.5 Total Fina Elf (EUR) TOTF.PANeutral 50.50 155,5629.98.38.07.77.26.56.15.9 International majors median 10.68.88.58.07.26.56.15.8 Regional majors ConocoPhillips (US$) COPBuy 63.63 88,4176.86.06.26.45.65.54.64.4 ENI (EUR) ENI.MIBuy* 23.00 110,0839.48.18.17.97.35.55.25.0 Occidental (US$) OXYBuy 99.56 39,49810.48.78.58.17.15.55.24.8 Repsol YPF (EUR) REP.MCNR 21.91 33,9598.38.38.99.04.74.64.44.2 Marathon (US$) MROSell 84.13 29,1689.37.57.77.26.24.84.64.2 Regional majors median 9.38.18.17.96.25.54.64.4 Emerging market oils CNOOC (HK$) 0883.HKBuy 6.50 34,22611.19.310.37.97.46.26.65.1 GAIL (Rs) (a) GAIL.BONeutral 234.65 4,2458.311.812.511.66.38.17.67.1 ONGC (Rs) (a) ONGC.BONeutral 1,049.65 32,0168.28.89.09.16.26.16.05.6 Petrobras (US$) PBRNeutral 84.62 89,0109.57.77.36.66.25.75.25.0 PetroChina (HK$) 0857.HKBuy 8.55 196,23511.39.610.18.87.55.85.85.2 PTT (Bt) PTT.BKBuy 236.00 17,3567.77.27.66.98.66.66.65.9 Sinopec (HK$) 0386.HKNeutral 4.30 47,7979.68.28.16.6 6.86.46.25.2 Reliance (Rs) (a) RELI.BONeutral 967.55 28,83214.915.418.014.712.313.014.911.3 Emerging market oils median 9.59.09.68.47.16.36.45.4 GSWTI oil price forecast (US$/bbl) 56.668.068.068.0 06EV/proved P/gross cash flow (X) CROCI (%) Yield Reserves P/B 06E 20052006E 2007E 2008E 20052006E 2007E 2008E (%) US$/boe (X) 7.46.75.75.113.814.015.015.03.318.92.8 7.05.34.94.512.814.313.614.03.111.62.0 8.67.57.06.915.516.116.014.92.015.73.2 5.95.55.55.216.316.915.314.43.838.12.6 6.45.75.45.114.915.515.314.73.718.82.6 7.05.75.55.114.915.515.314.73.318.82.6 5.14.74.03.816.914.215.014.12.413.91.3 6.44.94.74.613.015.415.114.85.718.41.9 7.25.55.14.618.118.717.816.81.415.02.0 3.93.93.93.814.413.613.012.83.113.31.6 6.14.94.54.015.917.116.216.22.023.12.1 6.14.94.54.015.915.415.114.82.415.01.9 8.47.07.45.827.726.320.221.83.414.42.4 7.18.78.58.415.511.811.110.63.4 NA 1.9 7.47.47.27.017.615.414.513.86.74.92.3 5.85.44.84.719.917.319.217.73.58.91.9 8.06.46.35.721.422.619.619.14.710.12.4 7.65.55.65.020.723.719.919.24.223.32.2 5.04.54.33.712.512.011.011.63.419.01.4 11.312.113.910.412.27.25.97.11.026.32.0 7.56.76.75.818.816.416.815.83.514.42.1 (a) For fiscal year ending following March (i.e., FY2006 appears as 2005). * This is on a regional Conviction Buy/Sell List. Source: Company data, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5 Global exploration and production companies: Valuation analysis,2005-2008E GSPrice Mkt cap P/E (X) EV/DACF (X) P/GCF (X) Ticker Rating Jul 21 (US$mn) 20052006E 2007E 2008E 20052006E 2007E 2008E 20052006E 2007E 2008E US large/mid-cap E&P Anadarko Petroleum (US$) APCNeutral 41.6620,97016.015.911.39.99.39.76.95.98.97.65.85.1 Apache Corp (US$) APANeutral 62.8120,7578.07.56.35.74.74.33.63.14.43.93.43.1 Devon Energy Corp (US$) DVNNeutral 57.3428,6138.67.96.15.65.24.83.73.24.74.13.32.9 EOGResources (US$) EOGNeutral 64.4015,35112.412.49.28.56.66.25.04.56.66.25.04.4 Kerr-McGee (US$) KMGNeutral 69.7019,08715.714.711.08.67.07.55.95.06.77.15.44.5 Murphy Oil (US$) MURBuy 53.289,95713.714.612.310.07.47.16.24.97.47.15.94.6 XTOEnergy (US$) XTOBuy 41.1313,86113.010.28.48.47.75.94.54.26.75.24.34.2 US large/mid-cap median 13.012.49.28.57.06.25.04.56.76.25.04.4 US small-cap E&P Newfield Exploration (US$) NFXBuy 43.785,1929.79.97.26.95.24.63.63.14.64.03.12.8 Noble Energy (US$) NBLNeutral 45.905,43711.18.77.67.76.54.64.03.75.34.23.73.4 Pioneer Natural Resources (US$) PXDNeutral 41.735,32015.019.911.29.95.47.35.74.94.36.34.53.8 Pogo Producing (US$) PPPNeutral 43.322,7907.67.86.05.94.94.63.63.33.22.82.32.2 US small-cap median 10.49.37.47.35.34.63.83.54.44.13.43.1 Russian E&P Lukoil (US$) LUKOYSell 83.8068,48910.79.710.610.69.38.48.78.48.98.18.58.4 Gazprom Neft (US$) GAZPq.LNeutral 4.3020,3887.26.57.27.45.76.26.66.65.55.76.26.2 Russian median 8.98.18.99.07.57.37.67.57.26.97.47.3 European E&P Statoil (Nkr) STL.OLNeutral 176.5061,77212.49.58.98.18.75.95.24.58.15.85.24.6 BGGroup (p) BG.LSell 710.5046,62718.612.811.411.212.89.18.17.612.99.08.28.0 European median 15.511.210.29.610.77.56.66.010.57.46.76.3 Asian E&P CNOOC (HK$) 0883.HKBuy 6.5034,22611.19.310.37.97.46.26.65.18.47.07.45.8 ONGC (Rs) (a) ONGC.BONeutral 1,049.6532,0158.28.89.09.16.26.16.05.67.47.47.27.0 PTTEP (Bt) PTTE.BKSell 116.009,95416.011.311.910.79.87.47.56.310.57.67.76.6 Asian median 11.19.310.39.17.46.26.65.68.47.47.46.6 INPEX (¥) 1605.TBuy* 1,050,00020,56319.516.814.213.78.17.36.56.19.28.87.87.7 06 EV/proved EV/ CROCI (%) Yield P/B 06EReserves 2005 PV-10 20052006E 2007E 2008E (%) (X) (US$/BOE) (X) 14.011.612.914.00.52.522.91.4 18.517.817.716.90.61.611.10.9 14.113.616.016.10.81.514.51.3 20.018.119.918.60.32.815.41.4 12.211.814.415.20.23.618.31.5 16.813.815.117.30.92.529.32.4 26.125.226.023.10.72.714.11.1 16.813.816.016.90.62.515.41.4 15.317.020.218.40.01.920.01.3 15.017.518.916.70.72.011.71.0 12.910.512.613.30.61.96.61.1 11.611.111.911.70.01.012.40.8 14.014.015.815.00.31.912.11.1 17.015.813.412.41.01.63.6 NA 22.318.816.014.60.41.9 NANA 19.617.314.713.50.71.73.6 NA 11.615.116.117.23.02.115.82.1 19.124.323.321.60.52.221.72.3 15.319.719.719.41.82.218.82.2 27.726.320.221.83.42.414.41.3 17.615.414.513.86.72.35.0 NA 26.129.123.823.43.33.810.51.8 26.126.320.221.83.42.410.51.5 24.523.121.418.30.62.511.2 NA (a) For fiscal year ending following March (i.e., FY2006 appears as 2005). * This is on a regional Conviction Buy/Sell List. Source: Company data, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6 Global refiners: Valuation analysis,2005-2008E GSPrice P/E (X) Relative P/E (X) P/GCF (X) Ticker rating 21-Jul 20052006E 2007E 2008E 2006E 2007E 20052006E 2007E 2008E Taiwan (NT$) Formosa Petrochemical 6505.TWNeutral 56.8016,023 9.216.016.013.61.291.477.211.511.09.8 Korea (W) GSHoldings (Parent) 078930.KSBuy* 31,4503,103 7.77.07.25.30.690.79 NMNMNMNM S-Oil 010950.KSNeutral 66,4005,617 8.46.17.17.60.600.786.45.35.86.1 S-Oil (incl. treasury shares) 010950.KSNeutral 66,4007,848 10.67.99.09.70.770.998.97.58.18.6 SKCorp 003600.KSNeutral 64,2008,554 4.85.16.77.20.500.748.18.19.19.7 Thailand (Bt) Thai Oil TOP.BKBuy 64.503,459 7.06.97.47.00.750.804.54.24.24.0 Asian median 7.76.97.27.20.690.796.86.77.57.9 US (US$) Frontier Oil FTOSell 30.331,723 7.15.15.04.40.350.384.94.03.83.3 Sunoco SUNNeutral 62.848,641 8.56.85.85.20.470.455.54.53.93.4 Tesoro Petroleum TSONeutral 68.784,842 8.46.96.55.50.480.506.14.44.13.6 Valero/UDSVLONeutral 61.9536,427 9.26.35.75.10.440.447.75.04.53.9 US median 8.56.65.85.20.450.445.84.54.03.5 Europe Cepsa (EUR) CEP.MCSell 54.6718,571 17.617.318.418.51.691.9611.211.311.310.9 ERG (EUR) ERG.MINeutral 17.823,387 11.219.17.77.31.870.825.87.54.54.3 MOL (HuF) MOLB.BUBuy 21,4109,048 9.88.27.77.40.800.825.25.05.15.0 Neste Oil (EUR) NES1V.HESell* 27.398,916 16.415.311.211.11.491.2013.011.48.98.8 OMV (EUR) OMVV.VIBuy* 45.0017,062 9.78.07.66.90.780.814.94.84.54.0 PKN (PLN) PKNA.WANR 55.507,619 10.59.910.49.70.971.115.65.55.75.5 Europe median 10.812.69.18.61.230.965.76.55.45.3 (US$mn) Market cap EV/EBITDA (X) ROE (%) P/2006EDividend 20052006E 2007E 2008E 20052006E 2007E 2008EBV (X) yield (%) 9.012.812.811.229.415.014.115.62.33.7 8.87.27.45.517.917.315.518.51.24.0 6.25.15.76.424.828.423.620.11.88.3 6.25.15.76.414.418.415.013.31.48.3 7.59.08.69.222.216.412.010.60.93.0 5.45.14.74.031.125.519.717.61.65.1 7.57.27.46.424.817.315.517.61.64.0 3.52.82.82.471.064.550.445.03.30.7 4.43.63.22.855.352.449.647.63.21.5 4.43.73.53.035.932.727.626.82.00.6 5.93.93.53.134.736.131.729.52.00.4 4.43.73.32.945.644.240.637.22.60.7 9.38.98.98.719.017.014.613.53.02.1 5.57.84.03.519.810.420.217.32.11.7 5.95.14.74.321.122.019.817.71.90.8 11.610.27.67.226.523.226.322.83.60.0 5.04.74.43.918.117.815.814.81.92.0 7.05.96.15.811.710.99.810.01.23.8 6.46.85.45.119.417.417.816.12.01.8 (a) 2008E estimates are at normalized level. * This is on a regional Conviction Buy/Sell List. Source: Company data, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 7 Global oil services companies: Valuation analysis,2005-2007E Price GSM kt cap P /E (X ) EV /EBITDA (X ) P /GCF (X ) T icker Jul 21 Rating (US $mn) 20052006E 2007E 20052006E 2007E 20052006E 2007E US integrated o ilfield services Baker Hughes (US$) BHI 75.75 Neutral 25,28429.618.814.815.810.68.120.714.110.9 Halliburton (US$) HAL 30.04 Buy 26,25518.814.410.99.26.14.4 -114.812.19.7 Schlumberger (US$) SLB 61.45 Buy 72,39936.821.316.317.812.09.319.913.911.6 BJServices (US$) BJS 30.06 Neutral 9,63022.112.89.612.17.25.316.510.58.0 Weatherford (US$) WFT 42.00 Buy 11,25629.816.711.812.56.95.217.310.47.8 Oil States International (US$) OIS 29.64 Neutral 1,46213.08.87.87.75.44.48.36.25.6 M edian 25.815.511.412.37.15.216.911.38.9 US geophysical/seism ic Veritas DGC (US$) VTS 49.46 Neutral 1,65543.121.017.914.77.65.844.912.122.8 US offshore drillers Diamond Offshore (US$) DO 69.32 Buy 8,94441.312.67.317.76.93.720.89.46.0 ENSCOInternational (US$) ESV 37.57 Neutral 5,66220.37.75.310.44.42.712.56.14.5 GlobalSantaFe (US$) GSF 49.83 Neutral 11,68530.512.46.916.37.84.018.39.25.8 Noble Corporation (US$) NE 67.54 Neutral 9,06131.312.97.316.37.74.216.88.95.5 Pride International (US$) PDE 26.86 Sell 3,64836.412.86.48.24.82.38.66.54.2 Rowan Companies (US$) RDC 30.88 Neutral 3,25719.88.35.78.94.42.813.26.74.8 Transocean (US$) RIG 70.99 Neutral 22,77943.220.98.121.913.16.123.014.66.7 M edian 31.312.66.916.36.93.716.88.95.5 O verall US median 30.212.97.913.67.14.417.19.96.4 COSL (HK$) 2883.HK 4.18 Sell 2,13921.323.921.410.09.58.911.29.27.9 COSL (with tax rebates) (HK 2883.HK 4.18 Sell 2,13921.318.816.810.39.58.811.29.28.0 EBITDANet debt/ ROACE (%) growth (%) mkt cap Yield 20052006E 2007E 20052006E 2007E (%) (%) 18.729.337.031.249.327.31.20.6 29.332.441.769.840.627.55.41.8 25.532.134.843.643.126.01.20.8 21.531.435.928.765.229.8 -2.60.6 9.312.916.358.080.330.411.20.0 14.516.616.983.940.812.224.70.0 20.130.435.350.846.227.43.30.6 8.418.220.3 (1.6) 75.812.6 -5.40.0 12.635.253.5174.7154.462.11.42.5 11.526.234.979.6115.237.33.70.2 7.919.533.3111.1100.669.1 -0.11.7 9.721.037.373.089.959.910.00.4 6.612.524.019.759.263.427.10.0 11.123.228.0157.2109.042.1 -1.71.6 6.712.728.833.169.0113.54.80.0 9.721.033.379.6100.662.13.70.4 11.322.134.063.972.433.92.50.5 10.47.87.318.315.415.1 -3.70.8 10.49.99.215.417.115.3 -3.71.4 Source: Company data, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 8 Integrated oil companies' share price performance P rice 12-m onth A bs olute pr ic e perform a nc e (% ) R ela t iv e pr ic e perform a nc e (% ) J ul 21 H igh Low 1-wk 1-m o 3-m o 6-m o 1-y r 3-y r 1-wk 1-m o 3-m o 6-m o 1-y r 3-y r Interna tiona l m a jors BP Am oc o (p) 619.50712.00586.00 (3) 0 (13) (6) (1) 46 (4) 1 (8) (4) (2) 16 Chev ron (US $) 64.4566.3854.08 (1) 10 6 4 12 80 (1) 10 11 6 11 42 E x x on Mobil (US $) 63.9365.0055.20 (0) 10 (1) 5 7 81 (1) 10 5 7 7 44 Roy a l Dutc h S hell (US $) 66.9070.0858.171 5 (4) 3 9 47 0 5 1 5 9 16 Tota lFina E lf (EUR) 50.6056.3946.760 1 (10) (6) 0 57 (1) 1 (3) (8) (8) 3 R egiona l integra teds Conoc oPhillips (US $) 63.6372.5057.35 (2) 4 (9) (1) 4 142 (3) 4 (4) 1 3 91 ENI (EUR) 23.0024.8821.22 (0) 3 (7) (4) 3 78 (1) 3 0 (4) (3) 27 O c c identa l (US $) 99.56107.1369.941 3 (6) 10 20 208 0 3 (1) 12 19 144 P etroCana da (C$) 49.7658.5940.13 (4) 1 (12) (4) 17 80 (3) (1) (5) (2) 6 14 Reps olYPF (EUR) 21.9127.9620.21 (0) 3 (10) (11) (4) 54 (2) 2 (5) (16) (15) (5) Ma ra thon (US $) 84.1388.6356.28 (1) 10 0 15 47 222 (1) 10 6 18 46 155 E uropean integra teds Ceps a (EUR) 54.6755.4637.05 (1) (0) 16 35 40 136 (2) (1) 22 27 24 45 MOL (HUF) 21410.026665.018100.0 (2) 4 (17) (6) 14 290 (4) (4) (2) 0 7 48 OMV (EUR) 45.0059.8636.50 (3) 6 (20) (21) 26 321 (2) 6 (5) (14) 8 57 E m erging m a rk et integra teds CNOOC (HK $) 6.506.854.833 12 (2) 2 37 170 (1) 2 (1) (11) 0 28 GAIL (Rs ) 234.65320.15219.15 (2) (4) (23) (14) 5 110 0 (1) (9) (19) (23) (24) ONGC (Rs ) 1049.651484.45918.102 (4) (22) (16) 12 127 4 (1) (8) (20) (17) (17) P etrobras (R$) 42.0048.1526.40 (1) 2 (9) (8) 56 198 (3) (0) 2 (3) 11 15 P etroChina (HK $) 8.559.555.651 12 (4) 13 33 293 (1) 7 (3) 7 19 137 PTT (Bt) 236.00270.00206.004 8 (12) (4) 9 242 (1) 4 (1) 4 3 139 S inopec (HK $) 4.305.503.082 4 (20) (4) 32 116 (1) (1) (19) (9) 19 30 Relia nc e (Rs ) 967.551170.10406.17 (6) (4) (1) 40 137 373 (4) (1) 17 32 74 72 J a pa n M a rk et integra teds N ippon O il (¥) 877.001082.00741.000 11 (7) (2) 18 81 1 13 5 4 (7) 13 Note: Relative price performances are relative to local indexes. Source: Datastream. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 9 Exploration and production companies' share price performance Price 12-month Absolute price performance (%) Relative price performance (%) Jul 21 High Low 1-wk 1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 3-yr 1-wk 1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 3-yr US large cap (US$) Anadarko 41.6656.7141.66 (5) (7) (25) (22) (6) 89 (5) (7) (21) (21) (6) 49 Apache Corp 62.8177.2657.23 (5) (0) (16) (14) (10) 102 (6) 0 (11) (12) (11) 60 Burlington Res 91.9193.1062.91 - - - 1 47 276 (0) 0 5 3 46 197 Devon Energy Res 57.3470.1849.10 (4) 3 (8) (15) 4 141 (4) 3 (3) (14) 3 91 EOGResources 64.4084.8157.36 (5) (0) (14) (23) 1 237 (5) 0 (10) (21) 1 166 Kerr McGee 69.7069.9238.14 (0) 2 33 38 81 232 (1) 2 40 41 81 163 Murphy Oil 53.2859.1542.08 (3) 3 1 (5) (1) 116 (3) 4 7 (3) (1) 71 Noble Affilia tes 45.9048.6735.96 (1) 13 (2) 1 12 150 (1) 13 3 3 11 97 Canadian (C$) Canadian Natural Resources 55.0073.9144.50 (5) (1) (23) (20) 12 311 (5) (1) (23) (20) 12 266 Canadian Occidental 59.5268.9743.41 (6) 0 (12) (7) 37 229 (6) 0 (12) (7) 37 193 Encana 53.9969.4846.33 (4) (4) (5) (0) 5 117 (4) (4) (5) (0) 5 93 Nexen 59.5268.9743.41 (6) 0 (12) (7) 37 229 (6) 0 (12) (7) 37 193 Talisman Energy 17.2124.7516.35 (10) (7) (22) (27) 1 151 (10) (7) (22) (27) 1 124 Asia Pacific & Russian E&P CNOOC (HK$) 6.506.854.833 12 (2) 2 37 170 (1) 2 (1) (11) 0 28 ONGC (Rs) 1049.651484.45918.102 (4) (22) (16) 12 127 4 (1) (8) (20) (17) (17) PTTEP (Bt) 116.00135.0080.006 15 (14) 7 48 265 1 10 (3) 17 40 155 Santos (A$) 11.3813.4710.70 (4) (0) (8) (11) 1 83 (4) (0) (3) (14) (12) 14 Woodside (A$) 43.5049.0929.88 (6) 5 (9) 0 45 236 (6) 4 (4) (3) 27 109 Oil Search (A$) 4.164.583.13 (1) 8 (8) 9 25 343 (1) 8 (2) 5 10 176 Aus.Worldwide Expl'n (A$) 3.223.451.88 (1) 2 13 29 67 279 (1) 1 19 25 47 136 Roc Oil (A$) 4.284.502.271 11 30 47 95 240 1 11 38 42 71 112 Tap Oil (A$) 1.953.221.74 (4) 3 (11) (29) (28) 26 (4) 3 (6) (31) (37) (22) INPEX (¥) 1,050,000 1,310,000 693,000 - 14 (6) (7) NANA 0 17 6 (1) NANA Lukoil (US$) 83.8094.7039.601 19 (10) 9 110 368 NANANANANANA Sibneft (US$) 4.305.503.00 - 13 (22) (3) 28 107 NANANANANANA Yukos (US$) 0.922.220.58 (17) (12) (5) (46) 56 (92) NANANANANANA European E&P Statoil (Nkr) 176.50210.50134.25 (5) 5 (16) 1 28 176 (5) 5 (10) (0) 17 100 BGGroup (p) 710.50782.50467.50 (0) 2 (9) 14 54 160 (1) 2 (3) 13 41 89 Note: Relative price performances are relative to local indexes. Source: Datastream. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 10 Refiners' share price performance Pric e 12-m onth A bs olute price perform ance (% ) R ela tiv e pr ic e perform a nc e (% ) Jul 21 H igh Low 1-wk 1-m o 3-m o 6-m o 1-y r 3-y r 1-wk 1-m o 3-m o 6-m o 1-y r 3-y r India (R s ) Bha ra t P etroleum 313.65485.05298.703 (7) (28) (28) (11) 18 5 (4) (15) (31) (34) (57) H indus ta n Petroleum 214.65357.20207.302 (16) (32) (31) (28) (35) 4 (13) (19) (35) (47) (76) India n O il Corpora tion 363.10612.30314.05 (6) (11) (32) (31) (14) 37 (4) (8) (19) (35) (37) (50) Cas trol India 166.85272.90155.451 (4) (29) (30) (25) (17) 3 (1) (16) (34) (45) (70) Ja pan (¥) Cos m o O il 520.00692.00477.00 (1) 3 (20) (11) 8 178 (1) 5 (9) (5) (15) 73 N ippon O il 877.001,082.00741.000 11 (7) (2) 18 81 1 13 5 4 (7) 13 Showa S hell Sek iyu 1,405.001,592.001,164.002 5 - 5 20 74 2 7 13 12 (6) 8 TonenGenera l 1,157.001,347.001,088.00 (3) (2) (6) (5) (4) 45 (2) (1) 6 1 (25) (10) N ippon Mining Holdings 924.001,152.00648.00 (3) (6) (13) 7 47 292 (2) (4) (2) 14 15 144 Korea (W ) GSHoldings 31,45032,60022,300 (3) 10 1 17 33 NA (4) 6 14 22 13 NA S-O il Corp 66,40086,20060,0004 1 (9) (6) (17) 223 2 (3) 2 (2) (30) 79 SK Corp 64,20073,20048,6001 8 (8) 9 30 392 (0) 4 3 14 10 172 M a lay s ia (RM ) Ess o Ma la ys ia 2.382.822.3201 (5) (2) (5) 14 (2) (1) (3) (4) (3) (13) Petronas Da ga ngan 4.084.283.662 31 4 (0) 32 (0) 0 3 2 1 1 Shell Ref Co Bhd 10.5012.209.655 6 (5) 2 7 152 2 4 (3) (0) 8 94 Phi l ippines (P ) Petron Corp 4.005.002.9578 (8) (17) 36 89 4 2 (8) (22) 18 8 Ta iwa n (NT$) Form osa P etrochem ica l 56.8061.8454.95 (5) (2) (2) (0) 2 NA (7) (1) 9 0 1 NA Tha i la nd (B t) Tha i O il 64.5076.5057.002 6 (10) (4) 11 NA (2) 2 1 4 5 NA Bangc ha k Petroleum 11.4015.5011.202 - (20) (18) (14) 40 (3) (4) (10) (11) (18) (2) US (US$) Sunoc o 62.8496.2160.60 (4) 0 (27) (29) 2 236 (5) 1 (23) (28) 1 166 Va lero/UDS 61.9569.1041.25 (2) (0) (10) 3 49 585 (2) 0 (5) 5 48 442 Ashland 64.2274.5551.23 (0) (4) (11) (1) 4 153 (1) (4) (7) 1 3 100 Frontier O il 30.3335.2313.95 (8) 12 (4) 37 110 690 (8) 12 2 40 109 526 S ingapore (SG$) S ingapore Petroleum 5.006.004.382 - (16) (11) 3 324 0 (1) (8) (11) 1 177 Note: Relative price performances are relative to local indexes. Source: Datastream. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 11 Oil service companies' share price performance Price 12-month Absolute price performance (%) Relative price performance (%) Jul 21 High Low 1-w k 1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 3-yr 1-wk 1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 3-yr US integrated oilfield services (US$) Baker Hughes 75.75 88.60 51.20 (4) (1) (2) 1 38 140 (5) (0) 4 3 37 90 Halliburton 30.04 41.67 27.43 (15) (16) (25) (21) 13 184 (15) (16) (21) (19) 12 125 Schlum berger 61.45 73.37 39.24 (4) 4 (11) (1) 49 173 (4) 5 (6) 2 49 116 BJServices 30.06 42.75 29.22 (9) (15) (24) (28) 4 69 (10) (14) (19) (27) 3 33 Weatherford 42.00 58.14 28.87 (13) (12) (16) (4) 34 130 (13) (12) (11) (2) 34 82 Oil States International 29.64 42.95 28.49 (5) (7) (26) (29) 5 148 (5) (7) (22) (27) 5 97 US geophysical/seismic (US$) Veritas DGC 49.46 53.90 29.48 0 1 (2) 12 65 378 (0) 1 3 14 64 278 US offshore drillers (US$) Diam ond Offs hore 69.32 96.15 51.46 (5) (11) (26) (15) 19 266 (6) (11) (22) (13) 19 189 ENSCOInternational 37.57 57.89 37.57 (7) (13) (34) (32) (2) 53 (8) (12) (31) (31) (3) 21 GlobalSantaFe 49.83 65.15 39.73 (5) (6) (21) (18) 11 128 (5) (6) (17) (16) 10 80 Noble Corporation 67.54 85.25 58.40 (5) (4) (19) (19) 0 105 (5) (3) (15) (18) (0) 62 Pride International 26.86 36.87 24.39 (6) (9) (25) (25) 4 59 (6) (9) (21) (23) 4 26 Rowan Com panies 30.88 47.95 29.53 (6) (11) (34) (31) (4) 40 (7) (10) (31) (30) (4) 11 Trans ocean 70.99 88.97 53.39 (6) (7) (17) (11) 21 278 (6) (7) (13) (9) 20 199 Asian oilfield services COSL (HK$) 4.18 4.80 2.68 7 21 (9) 11 52 133 3 11 (8) (4) 11 11 Note: Relative price performances are relative to local indexes. Source: Datastream. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 12 Key commodity prices and margins West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price,1993-2006 YTD (US $ /b b l ) 19931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 1 Q 19.8714.7918.3219.7422.8415.9313.1528.8428.7521.5833.9535.2549.8663.27 2 Q 19.7717.7819.3021.7819.9214.5617.6928.8427.9126.3029.0838.3153.0970.56 3 Q 17.7918.4617.8622.3119.7714.1421.7431.7026.7328.3430.2543.8363.2174.44 4 Q 16.4117.6618.1324.7219.8712.7924.6232.0420.4128.2831.1848.1859.98 Y e a r 18.4517.1818.4022.1620.6014.3519.3230.3625.9326.1431.1041.4356.58 y t d 67.70 J u n . a v g M o m c h a n g e (% ) C r t . w k C h a n g e (% ) (US $ /b b l ) J u n M a y A p r (US $ /b b l ) -1 w k -2 w k -3 w k -4 w k 2006 E 2007 E 2008 E 2009 E 70.96 (0.0 ) 1.810.873.54 (2.3 ) (1.3 ) 1.25.268.068.068.068.0 WTI e s t i m a t e (US $ /b b l ) 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 JFMAMJJASOND 20022003200420052006 (US $ /b a r r e l) Note: 3Q06 WTI oil price is for 3Q06-QTD. Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 13 Spread of WTI versus other crude,1993-2009E, and 2010N normalized estimates (US $/bbl ) 199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200506y td 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010N WTI 18.4 17.2 18.4 22.2 20.6 14.4 19.3 30.4 25.9 26.1 31.1 41.4 56.6 67.7 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 45.0 Brent 17.0 15.8 17.0 20.7 19.1 12.8 17.9 28.4 24.4 25.0 28.8 38.2 54.5 66.5 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 43.0 M inas 17.9 16.2 17.6 20.7 19.3 12.4 17.8 28.8 24.1 25.7 29.6 36.9 54.1 67.3 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 42.0 Duba i 14.8 14.7 16.1 18.5 18.1 12.2 17.2 26.1 22.8 23.8 26.8 33.6 49.4 62.2 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 40.0 Ara b hea v y 13.1 13.6 15.5 18.3 17.3 11.0 16.1 25.3 21.9 23.3 26.5 31.3 44.9 57.4 58.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 39.0 WTI v ers us Brent 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.1 2.3 3.2 2.1 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 WTI v ers us Mina s 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.3 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.8 0.4 1.5 4.5 2.5 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 WTI v ers us Duba i 3.6 2.5 2.3 3.7 2.5 2.1 2.1 4.2 3.2 2.4 4.3 7.8 7.2 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 WTI v ers us Ara b heav y 5.3 3.6 2.9 3.8 3.3 3.4 3.2 5.1 4.1 2.8 4.6 10.1 11.7 10.3 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 6.0 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 9091929394959697989900010203040506 US $/bbl (5.00) - 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 US $/bblWTI (lef t sc a le) WTI– Mina s WTI– Duba i WTI– Brent Source: Datastream, Platts, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 14 Hydrocarbon net speculative length versus WTI oil prices -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Mar- 95 Sep- 95 Mar- 96 Sep- 96 Mar- 97 Sep- 97 Mar- 98 Sep- 98 Mar- 99 Sep- 99 Mar- 00 Sep- 00 Mar- 01 Sep- 01 Mar- 02 Sep- 02 Mar- 03 Sep- 03 Mar- 04 Sep- 04 Mar- 05 Sep- 05 Mar- 06 (mn bbls) 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 (US$/bbl) Hydrocarbon net speculative length (LHS) WTI crude oil price (RHS) Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Datastream. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 15 Singapore refining margins,1990-2006 YTD Simple refining margins Complex margins (US$/bbl) 1997199819992000200120022003200420052006 (US$/bbl) 1997199819992000200120022003200420052006 1Q 2.471.181.062.641.010.864.253.282.162.331Q 5.293.262.254.483.422.276.267.307.566.54 2Q 2.351.870.382.171.141.092.112.333.413.342Q 4.483.811.803.563.302.543.306.688.1510.71 3Q 1.680.450.832.801.131.382.233.213.340.653Q 3.421.882.635.802.362.354.418.159.958.61 4Q 1.591.591.152.411.652.352.596.363.804Q 3.402.542.094.182.553.535.5311.528.20 Year 2.021.270.852.501.231.422.813.803.18 Year 4.152.872.194.502.902.684.898.428.47 ytd 2.55 ytd 8.69 Weekly margins Current -1 wk -2 wk -3 wk -4 wk Weekly margins Current -1 wk -2 wk -3 wk -4 wk (US$/bbl) 0.711.681.681.681.68 (US$/bbl) 8.419.229.229.229.22 Simple refining margins estimates (US$/bbl) Complex margins estimates (US$/bbl) 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009ENormalized 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009ENormalized 3.003.003.003.002.009.009.009.009.005.00 (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Ja n- 90 Ju l-9 0 Ja n- 91 Ju l-9 1 Ja n- 92 Ju l-9 2 Ja n- 93 Ju l-9 3 Ja n- 94 Ju l-9 4 Ja n- 95 Ju l-9 5 Ja n- 96 Ju l-9 6 Ja n- 97 Ju l-9 7 Ja n- 98 Ju l-9 8 Ja n- 99 Ju l-9 9 Ja n- 00 Ju l-0 0 Ja n- 01 Ju l-0 1 Ja n- 02 Ju l-0 2 Ja n- 03 Ju l-0 3 Ja n- 04 Ju l-0 4 Ja n- 05 Ju l-0 5 Ja n- 06 Ju l-0 6 (US$/bbl) Simple refining margins (monthly) Complex margins (monthly) Note: 3Q06 margins are for 3Q06-QTD. Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Platts. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 16 Key refinery product prices and margins Gasoline 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Jan 00 Jul 00 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 US$/bbl 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 US$/bbl Spread over Dubai Price (RHS) Kerosene 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan 00 Jul 00 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 US$/bbl 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 US$/bbl Spread over Dubai Price (RHS) Gasoil 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan 00 Jul 00 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 US$/bbl 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 US$/bbl Spread over Dubai Price (RHS) Fuel Oil -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 Jan 00 Jul 00 Jan 01 Jul 01 Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 US$/bbl 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 US$/bbl Spread over Dubai Price (RHS) Source: Platt’s. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 17 Demand and supply trends Monthly Asian energy macro data,2003-2006 YTD 2003 F u l l yr Jan F e b M ar Ap r M ay Ju n Ju l Au g S ep O ct N ov D e c F u ll yr O il d e m an d g row th (% chg yo y) Ch in a (a) (b ) 11152114212529146910161116 In d ia 14812181117 (2 ) 66 (4 ) 26 Jap an 1 (3 ) (8 ) (5 ) (2 ) (5 ) (5 ) 35 (2 ) (4 ) (5 ) (6 ) (3 ) Ko re a 1 (5 ) (6 ) 35 (2 ) (1 ) (1 ) 44 (3 ) (5 ) (2 ) (1 ) T h ailan d 4611121213121211111010911 Re fin ery u til iz atio n (% ) In d ia 10210610810610110310598989710010199102 Jap an 8488918984727283908079889184 Ko re a 8288888685817871818287919284 Sin g ap o re 7472757980728477878989869282 T h ailan d 87969682969494999392999910195 2004 Jan Fe b M ar Ap r M ay Ju n Ju l A ug S e p t O ct N o v D e c F u ll yr Jan F e b M ar Ap r M ay Y td 644 (1 ) (2 ) (3 ) 258512302610116 403 (5 ) (2 ) 0 (5 ) 12 (3 ) (3 ) (3 ) (2 ) (0 ) (1 ) 3 (2 ) 693 (1 ) 423 (3 ) 6 (3 ) (4 ) 4 (8 ) 3610 (6 ) (8 ) (2 ) (3 ) (4 ) 2365 (1 ) 100 (1 ) (8 ) 221 (2 ) (2 ) (8 ) (6 ) (5 ) 3333343333213100 (0 ) (1 ) (0 ) 10210410192961021001001001041019410010811110693103104 90939185767984898887889387949292857588 898889818577827885879192859289888588 86738269838486858285808582837779678678 98869498939798949589839493989495989897 2006 YTD2005 (a) Apparent oil demand for China. (b) For January and February, the Lunar New Year (LNY) affects demand. The LNY falls on different dates each year, making demand growth more volatile in the first quarter. Source: Indian Ministry of Petroleum, International Energy Agency (IEA), PTIT, Korean National Oil Corp, Petroleum Association of Japan. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 18 China import and export data: Crude oil and total refined products N e t im p o rts/ (e xp o rts) Im p lie d IEA Cru d e p ro d u ctio n C ru d e s Re fin e d p ro d u cts ap p are n t d e m an d re p o rte d d e m an d ( in m n b b l/d ) A yo y B yo y C yo y A+B +C yo y (a) yo y 2004 An n u al ave rag e 3.492% 2.3541% 0.6650% 6.5018% 6.3816% 2005 An n u al ave rag e 3.613% 2.392% 0.49 -26% 6.490% 6.543% 2006 Jan 3.685% 3.0074% 0.47 -25% 7.1522% 6.550% F e b 3.661% 2.929% 0.52 -8% 7.104% 6.691% M ar 3.703% 2.706% 0.5568% 6.958% 6.696% Ap r 3.682% 2.783% 0.6563% 7.116% 7.0910% M ay 3.671% 2.9020% 0.55267% 7.1315% 6.9111% Ju n 3.742% 2.676% 0.9462% 7.359% Ave rag e (ytd ) 3.692% 2.8320% 0.6171% 7.1311% 6.796% Note: (a) IEA reported demand is production of refined products + net import of refined products + adjustments for independent refiners. Source: IEA, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. C rude oil (net im ports) 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000 Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug S ep O ct Nov Dec (Thousand tonnes) 200620052004 20032002 R efined products (net im ports) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug S ep O ct Nov D ec (Thousand tonnes) 200620052004 20032002 Source: CEIC. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 19 China import and export data: Gasoline, kerosene, diesel, and fuel oil Gasoline (net exports) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (Thousand tonnes) 200620052004 20032002 Kerosene (net imports) -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (Thousand tonnes) 200620052004 20032002 Diesel (net exports) -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (Thousand tonnes) 200620052004 20032002 Fuel oil (net imports) 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (Thousand tonnes) 200620052004 20032002 Source: CEIC. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 20 OPEC monthly production and quota compliance OPEC production vs. sustainable capacity Im plied ( '000 b/d) P roduction Q uota Sustainable capacity (a) overproduction vs quota Capacity vs production Saudi Arabia (b) 9,350 9,09910,800 251 1,450 Iran (b) 3,700 4,1104,000 (410) 300 Kuwait 2,500 2,2472,600 253 100 UAE 2,560 2,4442,700 116 140 Qatar 810 726830 84 20 Venezuela (c) 2,580 3,2232,750 (643) 170 N igeria 2,250 2,3062,600 (56) 350 L ibya 1,700 1,5001,700 200 — Algeria 1,380 8941,370 486 (10) Indonesia 900 1,451980 (551) 80 OPEC-1027,730 28,00030,330 (270) 2,600 Iraq 2,090 2,500 410 Total OPEC 29,820 32,830 3,010 June 2006 (a) Capacity levels can be reached within 30 days and sustained for 90 days. (b) Includes half of Neutral Zone Production. (c) Includes upgraded Orinoco extra-heavy oil capacity of 590 kb/d and production. Total OPEC (ex Iraq) production versus quota 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 26,000 27,000 28,000 29,000 Ja n- 00 A pr -0 0 Ju l-0 0 O ct -0 0 Ja n- 01 A pr -0 1 Ju l-0 1 O ct -0 1 Ja n- 02 A pr -0 2 Ju l-0 2 O ct -0 2 Ja n- 03 A pr -0 3 Ju l-0 3 O ct -0 3 Ja n- 04 A pr -0 4 Ju l-0 4 O ct -0 4 Ja n- 05 A pr -0 5 Ju l-0 5 O ct -0 5 Ja n- 06 A pr -0 6 Production Quota (000s b/d) OPEC exceeded quota significantly Source: IEA monthly report, Bloomberg. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 21 Key upcoming events Ticker Name Country/region Event date Event 003600.KSSKCorp. Korea July 24,20062Q2006 results PTTEP.BKPTTEPThailand July 24,20062Q2006 results ONGC.BOOil & Natural Gas Corp. India July 25,20061QFY2007 results (a) 010950.KSS-Oil Korea August 7,20062Q2006 results 078930.KSGSHoldings Korea Early August 2Q2006 results TOP.BKThai Oil Thailand Early-mid August 2Q2006 results 1605.TINPEXJapan August 11,20061QFY2006 results (b) PTT.BKPTTThailand August 11,20062Q2006 results 0857.HKPetroChina China August 16,20061H2006 results 2883.HKChina Oilfield Services Limited China August 21,20061H2006 results 6505.TWFormosa Petrochemical Taiwan August 25,20062Q2006 results 0386.HKSinopec China August 28,20061H2006 results 0883.HKCNOOCChina August 28,20061H2006 results (a) FY2007 refers to year ended March 2007. (b) FY2006 refers to year ended March 2007. Source: StreetEvents, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Publications in past two weeks Company Updates FPCC: Adjustment of target price & EPS due to stock split (July 21) FPCC: Possibly better than expected 2Q earnings (July 17) Comments Reliance Industries: Solid 1QFY07 results, but below consensus forecast (July 20) PetroChina: Strong 2Q2006 operating results as expected, reaffirm Buy (July 17) Sinopec: Gas station acquisitions immaterial; no plan for privatizing Kantons (July 11) July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 22 FADisclosures Goldman Sachs International is acting as advisor to Gas Natural SDG in the proposed acquisition of Endesa, S.A. Goldman Sachs International and or one of its affiliates is acting as financial advisor to PKNORLEN in the proposed acquisition of control of Mazeikiu from Yukos Oil Company and the Government of Lithuania. Goldman Sachs International and or one of its affiliates will receive a fee for its financial advisor role. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 23 RegAC I, Kelvin Koh, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Investment profile The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility adjusted for dividends. Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets. Disclosures Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s) Compendium report: please see disclosures at . Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research. Company-specific regulatory disclosures Compendium report: please see disclosures at . Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research. Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell Global 27% 59% 14% 57% 49% 45% July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 24 As of July 1,2006, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 2,129 equity securities. Prior to June 24,2006, Goldman Sachs utilized a relative rating system of Outperform, In-Line and Underperform, which, for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules, equated to Buy, Hold and Sell. 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Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and regulations. Australia: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. Canada: Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. has approved of, and agreed to take responsibility for, this research in Canada if and to the extent it relates to equity securities of Canadian issuers. Analysts may conduct site visits but are prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement by the company of travel expenses for such visits. Hong Kong: Further information on the securities of covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Japan: See company-specific disclosures as to any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance Company. Korea: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. Singapore: Further information on the covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W). United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as private customers in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Services Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request. European Union: Disclosure information in relation to Article 4 (1) (d) and Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Directive 2003/126/EC is available at Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages various regional Investment Lists to a global guideline of 25%-35% of stocks as Buy and 10%-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return. Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership. Coverage groups and views: A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at . The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. July 25,2006 Asia Pacific: Energy Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 25 Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price, if any, have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target, if any, for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. Ratings, coverage views and related definitions prior to June 26,2006 Our rating system requires that analysts rank order the stocks in their coverage groups and assign one of three investment ratings (see definitions below) within a ratings distribution guideline of no more than 25% of the stocks should be rated Outperform and no fewer than 10% rated Underperform. The analyst assigns one of three coverage views (see definitions below), which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and valuation. Each coverage group, listing all stocks covered in that group, is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at . Definitions Outperform (OP). We expect this stock to outperform the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. In-Line (IL). We expect this stock to perform in line with the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. Underperform (U). We expect this stock to underperform the median total return for the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months. Coverage views: Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Current Investment List (CIL). We expect stocks on this list to provide an absolute total return of approximately 15%-20% over the next 12 months. We only assign this designation to stocks rated Outperform. We require a 12-month price target for stocks with this designation. Each stock on the CIL will automatically come off the list after 90 days unless renewed by the covering analyst and the relevant Regional Investment Review Committee. Global product; distributing entities The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs, and pursuant to certain contractual arrangements, on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty Ltd (ABN 21006797897) on behalf of Goldman Sachs; in Canada by Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. regarding Canadian equities and by Goldman Sachs & Co. 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Copyright 2006 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

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