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比亚迪:辉立证券-比亚迪-1211.HK-沙场砺兵,新平台利剑再出鞘-210716

研报作者:章晶 来自:辉立证券 时间:2021-07-18 17:10:38
  • 股票名称
    比亚迪
  • 股票代码
    1211.HK
  • 研报类型
    (PDF)
  • 发布者
    276****7MM
  • 研报出处
    辉立证券
  • 研报页数
    5 页
  • 推荐评级
    增持(下调)
  • 研报大小
    1,595 KB
研究报告内容

EQUITYRESEARCH Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITALHONGKONGRESEARCH 比亞迪(1211 HK) 沙場礪兵,新平臺利劍再出鞘 香港|汽車製造|更新報告 16 July 2021 投資概要 電車六月銷量創歷史新高 數據顯示,比亞迪六月份共銷售汽車51015台,同比增長51%,環比增長10%;其中 新能源汽車銷售41366台,同比大升192%,環比增加26%;傳統燃油汽車銷量爲 9649台,同比下降50.6%,環比减少28.5%。

新能源汽車銷量爲公司歷叱新高,并且 超過了對手特斯拉和上汽通用五菱在國內的新能源車銷量。

乘用車和商用車分別貢獻 了49765和1250輛。

公司上半年累計汽車銷量爲24.67萬輛,同比增長55.5%。

六月的新能源乘用車銷量中,純電車型和混合動力車型分別錄得20016和20100輛, 同比/環比分別增長+102%/+7%,+537%/+55%。

受益于DM-i車型大賣,混合動力車型 表現突出。

今年3月起,比亞迪三款DM-i新車(秦PLUSDM-i、宋PLUSDM-i、唐DM-i)陸續上 市,搭載了自主研發的“DM-i超級插混”系統,極具競爭力,6月三款DM-i新車型合計 銷量預計約1.7萬輛,累計訂單超過12萬台。

受限于刀片電池産能瓶頸,産品供丌應 求,平均提車周期需要3個月左史。

下半年秦Pro DMi、宋Pro DMi、漢DMi也將上 市,隨著刀片電池産能的爬坡,預計DM-i系列車型的銷量仍將繼續走强。

另外,作爲首款比亞迪純電E3.0平臺新車,海豚將于三季度上市,目標客戶更年輕 化,旨在充分挖掘入門級電動車和出行領域市場。

半導體分拆上市開啓新一輪資本與公司價值正反饋機制 近期比亞迪分拆旗下半導體業務于A股創業板上市的議案已獲受理,正式開啓旗下多 個業務通過資本市場獲得價值重估之路。

我們認爲,隨著中性化戰略的加速推進,其 他如刀片電池、商用車、光伏儲能板塊的分拆上市在未來也有可能陸續實現,分拆帶 來的運營效率的提升和價值重塑將推高公司的潜在價值,公司有望充分受益于資本與 公司價值正反饋的機制紅利。

投資建議 我們采用分部估值法,調整從樂觀預期/謹慎預期兩種假設給予原有業務(汽車,手 機,二次充電電池及光伏業務)138/84港元,動力電池業務和半導體業務176/90和 12/4.4港元估值,整體估價分別爲321/176港元,對應目前股價分別有45%和-20%的 差價空間,綜合考量,給予248.5港元目標價,對應2021/2022/2023年110/83/60倍 預期市盈率,7.6/7.0/6.3倍預期市淨率,增持評級。

(現價截至7月14日) 增持 (下調) 現價HKD 221 (現價截至7月14日) 目標價HKD 248.5 (+12.44%) 公司資料 普通股股東(百萬股) : 2861 市值(港幣百萬元) : 231608 52周最高價/最低價(港幣元) : 278.4/ 68.35 主要股東% 王傳福17.95 呂向陽8.36 Berkshire Hathaway Energy 7.86 股價& HSI指數 Source: Aastock, Phillip Securities (HK) Research 財務資料 CNY mn FY19 FY20 FY21EFY22E Net Sales 121778153469194757243203 Net Profit 1614423455807313 EPS, CNY 0.501.471.872.49 P/E, x 397.1 126.5 98.2 74.0 BVPS, CNY 19.2020.4527.4029.63 P/BV, x 10.4 9.1 6.7 6.2 DPS (CNY) 0.060.150.280.39 Div. Yield (%) 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Est. 研究員 章晶(+ 86021- 51699400-103) zhangjing@phillip.com.cn Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITALHONGKONGRESEARCH BYDUPDATEREPORT BYD’s Quarterly net profit ( 100 million) Source: Wind, Phillip Securities Hong Kong Research 風險 新能源車型銷售丌及預期 雲軌芯片等新業務推廣風險 手機業務增速放緩 分部估值 2021E收入(亿元)估值方法倍数价值2021E收入(亿元)估值方法倍数价值乐观预期谨慎预期 整车新能源乘用车456 PS 52280380 PS 3.513309555 新能源商用车131 PS 2262101 PS 1.5152116 传统燃油车190 PS 0.595175 PS 0.58844 2021E净利润(亿元,人民币) 2021E净利润(亿元,人民币) 比亚迪电子持股比66% 51 PE 1860647 PE 134032517 2021E收入(亿元) 2021E收入(亿元) 二次充电电池/光伏100 PS 0.88080 PS 0.54032 市值市值 动力电池持股比75%宁德时代12800亿类比公司0.444224宁德时代9000亿类比公司0.32216017690 芯片持股比72.3%斯达半导550亿市值0.3119斯达半导400亿市值0.25852 2021E净利润2亿PE 901302021E净利润1.6亿PE 505852 其他(云轨/模具/视觉) 501020.4 合计321176 乐观预期谨慎预期每股价值(港元) Source: Phillip Securities Hong Kong Research BYD’s Est P/EP/B trend Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Hong Kong Research Page | 3 | PHILLIPCAPITALHONGKONGRESEARCH BYDUPDATEREPORT 財務數據 (現價截至7月14日) Page | 4 | PHILLIPCAPITALHONGKONGRESEARCH BYDUPDATEREPORT PHILLIPRESEARCHSTOCKSELECTIONSYSTEMS We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERALDISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd (“Phillip Securities”). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in this publication involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks. Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such security. Disclosure of Interest Analyst Disclosure: Neither the analyst(s) preparing this report nor his associate has any financial interest in or serves as an officer of the listed corporation covered in this report. Firm’s Disclosure: Phillip Securities does not have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation covered in this report nor any financial interest of 1% or more of the market capitalization in the listed corporation. In addition, no executive staff of Phillip Securities serves as an officer of the listed corporation. Availability The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction. Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited (“PSHK”) believed to be accurate. PSHK does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. PSHK (or its affiliates or employees) may have positions in relevant investment products. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on . 2021 Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4 -5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price Page | 5 | PHILLIPCAPITALHONGKONGRESEARCH BYD UPDATEREPORT Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd 250 North Bridge Road, #06-00 Raffles City Tower, Singapore 179101 Tel : (65) 65336001 Fax: (65) 65353834 .sg MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block BLevel 3, Megan Avenue II, No.12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng,50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel (60) 321628841 Fax (60) 321665099 .my JAPAN Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd 4-2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, Chuo-ku Tokyo 103-0026 Tel: (81) 336662101 Fax: (81) 336640141 .co.jp INDONESIA PTPhillip Securities Indonesia ANZTower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A, Jakarta 10220, Indonesia Tel (62) 2157900800 Fax: (62) 2157900809 .co.id CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. No 436 Heng Feng Road, Green Tech Tower Unit 604 Shanghai 200070 Tel (86) 2151699400 Fax: (86) 2160911155 INDIA PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited No.1,18th Floor, Urmi Estate,95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai 400013 Tel: (9122) 23002999 Fax: (9122) 66679955 .in THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd. 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand Tel (66) 222680999 Fax: (66) 222680921 .co.th FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Ltd. 3rd Floor,35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008 Paris France Tel (33) 145633100 Fax : (33) 145636017 UNITEDKINGDOM King & Shaxson Ltd. 6th Floor, Candlewick House,120 Cannon Street London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44) 2079295300 Fax: (44) 2072836835 UNITEDSTATES Phillip Futures Inc. 141 WJackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL 60604 USA Tel (1) 3123569000 Fax: (1) 3123569005 AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 10,330 Collins Street Melbourne VIC 3000 Tel (+61) 386339803 Fax (+61) 386339899 .au SRILANKA Asha Phillip Securities Limited Level 4, Millennium House,46/58 Navam Mawatha, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka Tel: (94) 11 2429100 Fax: (94) 112429199 /home.htm HONGKONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd 11/FUnited Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) 22776600 Fax: (852) 28685307

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