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研究报告:国泰君安国际-今晨焦点-140204

研报作者: 来自:国泰君安国际 时间:2014-02-07 09:42:34
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標題 Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 6 Research Department Morning Research Focus 4 February 2014 Table of Contents 目录 Weekly Overview and Trading Focus 上周回顾和本周交易提示 Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点 Latest Reports 最新报告摘要 Weekly Overview and Trading Focus (Shirley Gu) 上周回顾和本周交易提示(古乔艺) Overview of last week 上周回顾 HK market extended the downturn last week and ended the Year Snake with a subdued performance, with HSI and HSCEI down 1.85% and 1.95% wow respectively. Currencies in several emerging markets witnessed large selloff in late Jan. In addition with the significant corrections in the U.S., European and several Asian markets, HK market fell sharply to below 22,000 on Jan 27. Several emerging countries announced rate hikes, which once halted the plunge of their local currencies. Short-term shibor in China continued to rise ahead of Chinese New Year. But concerns over tight liquidity in China were relieved by PBOC’s reverse repo amounting to RMB 150bn. The default of one product issued by Zhongcheng trust company could be almost avoided, as the company stated to pay back the principle in full amount in spite of losses on part of interests that will be taken by investors. China banks once rebounded from their lows since 2H13 by 3%-5%. The U.S. Fed announced to further cut back the purchase of both MBS and long-term bond government bond by US$5bn since Feb 2014, in line with market expectations. The acceleration of monetary stimulus withdrawal deepened concerns of persisting risks of fund outflows in emerging countries. HSBCChina final manufacturing PMI in Dec was revised downwards compared with preliminary reading to 49.5. HK market once pared part of previous losses but returned to slide again on the last trading day of Year Snake. On Feb 3, U.S. market tumbled with main stock indexes down 2.3%-2.6%, mainly attributable to the weaker than expected PMI in both U.S. and China, which made the indexes down 6%-7% YTD in 2014. U.S. treasure bond yield fell to 2-month low of below 2.6% on escalating risk aversion, as concerns were raised towards slowing momentum in the U.S. economy and spreading risks in emerging markets. 港股上周延续跌势,平淡结束蛇年,恒指和国指全周分别下跌1.85%和1.95%。

多个新兴国家货币在1月下旬大幅下跌。

加上美国、 欧洲和主要亚洲市场的显著回调,港股在1月27日大幅下跌至22,000以下。

多个新兴国家宣布加息,一度令这些国家的本币汇率 停止下跌。

中国短期限的shibor春节前夕继续上行。

但流动性紧张的担忧在央行进行1,500亿元人民币的逆回购下有所缓解。

中诚 信托产品违约几乎得以避免,公司表示将全额兑付本金,尽管投资者将承担部分利息损失。

中资银行股一度从去年下半年的低位反 弹3%-5%。

美联储宣布自2014年2月起,进一步缩减抵押贷款证券和长期国债的购买规模分别为50亿美元,符合市场预期。

货 币刺激退出加速深化了新兴国家资金外流风险持续存在的担忧。

汇丰中国制造业PMI终值相比初值向下修正至49.5。

港股一度抹 去此前部分跌幅,但蛇年最后一个交易日重返下跌。

2月3日主要受中美制造业数据不及预期的影响,美股大幅下跌,主要股指下 跌2.3%-2.6%,令2014年初以来美股跌幅达到6%-7%。

由于对美国经济增长动能放缓以及新兴国家风险蔓延的担忧,美国国债收 益率在避险情绪升温下跌破2.6%,创2个月低位。

Trading focus of this week 本周交易提示 Key economic data and events Date Country Data / events Remarks 6-Feb Euro zone ECB’s policy meeting As the latest inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 4-year low of 0.7% in Jan. and unemployment rate still escalated, there is chance that policy makers further cut benchmark rate or deliver more signals of monetary easing. Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 6 7-Feb U.S. Change in nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, Jan. Nonfarm employment is expected to rise 143.2% mom from the low base in Dec. Unemployment rate could stay flat mom at 6.7%, the lowest since Nov 2008. Note: All the forecasts in the above table are based on market consensus from Bloomberg. 重要经济数据和事件 日期国家数据/事件说明 2月6日欧元区欧洲央行政策会议由于最新通胀率在1月意外降至4年低位0.7%,并且失业率仍然 高企,决策层存在进一步降低基准利率或传递更多货币宽松信号的 可能性。

2月7日美国12月非农就业增长、失业率预期非农就业将由12月份的低基数环比上升143.2%。

失业率将 环比持平于6.7%,为2008年11月以来的最低。

注:上表中所有预测都基于彭博的市场一致预期。

Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe (Shirley Gu) 中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据 (古乔艺) Country 国家 Indicator 指标名称 Data Period 数据期间 Current value 当期值 Mom / Qoq 环比变动 Yoy 同比变动 Market consensus 市场一致预期 U.S. 美国 ISM manufacturing PMI ISM制造业PMI Jan 1月 51.3 (5.7 ppt) (1.8 ppt) 56.0 Short comment: The PMI was far lower than expected and fell to the lowest since June 2013, which was mainly dragged by new order index’s significant mom decline of 13.2 ppt in Jan. We think more economic data might be needed to better judge the pace of recovery in the U.S. economy given a large volatility in PMI for a single month. 简评:PMI远低于预期,并跌至2013年6月的最低,主要由于新订单大幅1月环比下降13.2个百分点所致。

考虑到单月PMI的大幅波动,我 们认为或需要更多经济数据来更好评估美国经济复苏步伐。

China 中国 HSBC manufacturing PMI Jan 1月 49.5 (1.0 ppt) (2.8 ppt) 49.6 China 中国 Official manufacturing PMI Jan 1月 50.5 (0.5 ppt) 0.1 ppt 50.5 China 中国 Official service PMI 官方服务业PMI Jan 1月 53.4 (1.2 ppt) (2.8 ppt) n.a. Short comment: Both PMIs posted mom declines for the second consecutive month and hit 6-month lows. Both new export order sub-index were below 50. The decline of PMIs signaled weakening momentum in China’s economy and headwinds in the export outlook. Chinese New Year could be a seasonal factor and therefore bring volatilities to the PMI. The service PMI fell for the third consecutive month and hit the lowest since the Feb 2012, which might suggest the slowing momentum in non-manufacturing sectors. 简评:两项PMI都连续第二个月录得环比下跌,并触及6个月低位。

两项新出口订单指数都低于50。

PMI下跌显示中国经济增长动能转弱以 及出口前景面临逆风。

春节可能是一个季节性因素,因此对PMI带来波动。

服务业PMI连续第三个月下跌,并降至2012年2月以来的最低, 这可能显示出非制造业部门的增长动力放缓。

U.S. 美国 Annualized GDP qoq, first estimate 年化GDP环比增长, 首次预估 4Q133.2% (0.9 ppt) 3.1 ppt 3.2% Short comment: GDP growth was in line with expectations. The qoq slowing could be mainly attributable to the slowing private investment, slowing residential fixed investment and the decline of government expenditure, which however was partly offset by the higher contributions qoq from export and personal consumption. 简评:GDP增长符合预期。

季环比放缓主要由于私人投资放缓、住宅固定投资放缓以及政府开支下降,但被出口和个人消费环比贡献提高 所部分抵消。

Source: HSBC, National Bureau of Statistics of China, U.S. Commerce department, ISM 数据来源:汇丰、中国统计局、美国商务部、美国供应链管理协会 Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 6 Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点 Nil. Latest Reports 最新报告摘要 Company Name 公司名称 Code 代码 标题 TP 目标价 Chg 变动 Rating 评级 Chg 变动 EPSEst. Change 盈利预测 是否改变 China Datang Corp Renewable Power 01798 HK FY13 Power Generation In-Line, Maintain “Neutral” HK$1.60 ↑ Neutral -- N 大唐新能源01798 HK 13财年发电量符合预期,维持“中 性” HK$1.60 ↑中性--否 Appendices:Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附:行业和公司焦点,最新报告摘要中文版。

HSIPerformance HSCEIPerformance 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 6 Latest Reports China Datang Corp Renewable Power (01798 HK): FY13 Power Generation In-Line, Maintain “Neutral” Rating: Neutral 6-18m TP: HK$1.60 Analyst: Leo Wu Report Date: 2014-01-30 Summary FY13 wind power generation of Datang Renewable recorded 26.9% yoy growth, in-line with expectation. The estimated wind power utilisation hours in 2013 reached 1,978, up 12.9% yoy, basically in-line with our previous expectation (1,958 hours). The improvement of wind curtailment problem in Northern China and the relatively better wind resource are the two major reasons for the recovery of wind power utilisation of the Company. 2014 outlook: The net increase of wind capacity in 2013 might only reach 300MW (newly installed 450MW while sold back 148.5MW to the parent company), which is far below its original capacity growth guidance (600-800MW). For 2014, we think the situation may improve since the wind curtailment problem improved significantly in 2013, and the cash flow of the Company also improved. We expect Datang Renewable to increase wind capacity by 600MW and 800MW in 2014 and 2015, respectively. TP revised up to HK$1.60 and maintain “Neutral”. We maintain net profit estimates for FY13/14/15 unchanged, while TP is raise from HK$1.44 to HK$1.60, mainly because the practically improvement of wind curtailment problem enhances the certainty of the profitability of wind power generating capacities. Investment rating is maintained at “Neutral”. Chinese Translation中文翻译 行业和公司焦点 最新报告 大唐新能源(01798 HK): 13财年发电量符合预期,维持“中性” 评级:中 性6-18m目标价: HK$1.60 分析员:吴逸超报告日期: 2014-01-30 报告摘要 大唐新能源13财年风电发电量录得26.9%的同比增长,符合预期。

测算的2013年风电利用小时达到1,978小时,同 比增12.9%,基本符合我们此前预期(1,958小时)。

中国北方地区的限电问题改善以及相对较好的风资源是公司风 电利用小时回升的两个主要原因。

2014年展望:2013年净增风电装机或许仅达到300兆瓦(新装450兆瓦但售回148.5兆瓦予母公司),远低于其原 有的装机增长指引(600-800兆瓦)。

2014年,由于2013年限电问题的好转以及公司现金流的增强,我们认为该情 况将改善,我们预计大唐新能源2014和2015年新增风电装机量分别为600兆瓦及800兆瓦。

目标价上调至1.60港元并维持“中性”。

我们维持13/14/15财年盈利预测不变,但将目标价由1.44港元上调至1.60 港元,主要因为限电问题的实质性改善增强了风力发电装机的盈利能力确定性。

投资评级维持“中性”。

Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 6 Research Department研究部 Grace Liu刘 谷 Head of Research, Market strategy, Petrochemicals 主管, 市场策略、石化 liugu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976698 / (852) 25097516 Ray Zhao赵 睿Conglomerate, E-Commerce综合、电子商务zhaorui@gtjas.com (86755) 23976755 Harry Chen陈欢瑜 Aviation, Automobiles & Components 航空、汽车chenhuanyu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976683 Gary Wong黄家玮Toll Roads, Infrastructure公路、基建gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092616 Leo Wu吴逸超Coal, Electricity煤炭、电力wuyichao@gtjas.com (86755) 23976871 Johnson Sun孙凤强Health care医药johnson.sun@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097589 Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Small&Mid cap消费(酒店)、中小型股noah.hudson@gtjas.com (86755) 23976684 Sunny Kwok郭日升 Consumer (Food & Beverage, Household products) 消费(食品饮料、日用品) sunny.kwok@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092642 Frank Xu许智程Consumer (Retailing)消费(零售) xuzhicheng@gtjas.com (86755) 23976725 Jason Song宋然Shipping & Logistics, Ports航运物流、港口jason.song@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097768 Shirley Gu古乔艺Market strategy市场策略guqiaoyi@gtjas.com (86755) 23976718 Square Chui徐惠芳Futures期货square.chui@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092629 Kevin Guo郭勇 Nonferrous Metals, Precious Metals 有色金属、贵金属kevin.guo@gtjas.com (86755) 23976671 Donald Yu余立峰Property房地产yulifeng011680@gtjas.com (86755) 23976686 Peter Sheng盛骅Clean energy, Electric equipment清洁能源、电力设备shenghua011681@gtjas.com (86755) 23976675 Ricky Lai黎柏坚Telecommunications, Internet电信、互联网ricky.lai@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092603 Dayton Wang王庆鲁Insurance保险wangqinglu010421@gtjas.com (86755) 23976680 Angus Chan陈庆Machinery,Construction Materials机械、建材angus.chan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092665 Richard Cao曹柱Banking银行caozhu013592@gtjas.com (86755) 23976870 Louis Chan陈少威Consumer (Apparel)消费(服装) louis.chan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095310 Ivan Zhou周一帆Research assistant研究助理zhouyifan013593@gtjas.com (86755) 23976685 Anki Lam林婉琋Research assistant研究助理anki.lam@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092632 Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 6 Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited-H shares (01812) and China City Railway Transportation Technology Holdings Company Limited (01522), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships within the preceding 12 months for Huaneng Power (00902)/ Active Group (01096)/ China Dredging (00871)/ Billion (02299)/ China Shipping Container Lines Co. Ltd. - H Shares(02866)/ China Hangqiao Group Limited(01378)/ China U-Ton Holdings Ltd.(08232)/CWGroup Holdings Ltd. (01322) / China ITS (Holdings) Co., Ltd.(01900)/ Merry Garden Holdings Ltd. (01237)/ Xiezhong International Holdings Limited(03663)/ China All Access Holdings Ltd. (00633)/ China Int'l Marine Containers (Group) Co., Ltd. (02039)/ CECEPCostin New Material Group Limited (02228) and Binhai Investment (08035) mentioned in this Research Report. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 2014 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza,181 Queens’ Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website:

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