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龙源电力研究报告:国泰君安国际-龙源电力-0916.HK-维持“中性”-140129

研报作者:吴逸超 来自:国泰君安国际 时间:2014-01-30 10:30:59
  • 股票名称
    龙源电力
  • 股票代码
    0916.HK
  • 研报类型
    (PDF)
  • 发布者
    liu****ang
  • 研报出处
    国泰君安国际
  • 研报页数
    7 页
  • 推荐评级
    中性
  • 研报大小
    1,395 KB
研究报告内容

Company Report: Sinotrans Shipping (00368 HK) G T J A R e s e a rc h 国 泰君 安研究 C h in a L o n g y u a n P o w e r 龙 源电力 (0 09 16 H K ) C o m p a n y R e p o rt See the last page for disclaimer of 7 Company Report: China Longyuan Power (00916 HK) Leo Wu吴逸超 公司报告:龙源电力(00916 HK) +8675523976871 wuyichao@gtjas.com 29 January 2014 Maintain "Neutral" 维持“中性” Wind power generation of Longyuan Power in Dec.2013 was below expectation. Wind power generation in Dec. was only up by 6.5% yoy, which was mainly due to the weak wind resource, according to the Company. The wind utilisation hours in Dec. is estimated to be roughly 183, down 11.6% yoy, while for the whole year it is estimated to be 2,168, up 183 or 9.2% yoy. 2013 newly added wind capacity was below expectation. Longyuan Power only added 1,366.2MW wind capacity in 2013, far below its original guidance of 1.6-2GW as well as its revised guidance of 1.5GW. The slow construction progress of local power grid might be the main reason for the low capacity growth, which was beyond the control of the Company. 2014 outlook: Wind power capacity installation might speed up in 2014. We expect Longyuan Power may be able to accelerate its wind capacity installation in 2014 and 2015 by adding 1.5GW and 1.7GW. Wind curtailment ratio is expected to further improve from approximately 9.9% in 2013 to 7% and 5% in 2014 and 2015. Maintain "Neutral" rating and slightly revise up TP to HK$8.45. Due to the lower than expected capacity increase, we cut the wind capacity increase assumption in 2014-15. We cut the net profit estimates for FY13/14/15 by 1.8%/5.2%/9.1%. The last closing price is HK$9.46, representing 20.4x/15.8x/13.4x FY13/14/15 PER, which we think is not attractive. 2013年12月龙源电力风电发电量低于预期。

12月风电发电量同比仅增6.5%,公司表示 主要由于较差的风资源。

12月风电利用小时估算为183小时,同比降11.6%,全年估计为 2,168小时,同比增183或9.2%。

2013年新增风电装机数低于预期。

龙源电力于2013年仅增加了1,366.2兆瓦风电装机, 远低于其原1.6-2吉瓦目标,也低于修正后的1.5吉瓦目标。

我们认为地方接入电网较慢 的建设速度可能继续成为装机增速偏低的主要原因,而该原因不受公司控制。

2014展望:2014年风电装机或提速。

我们预计龙源电力于2014和2015年或可加速其风 电新装机量至1.5吉瓦和1.7吉瓦。

限电率预计由2013年的9.9%进一步改善至2014及 2015的7%和5%。

维持“中性”并略微提高目标价至8.45港元。

由于低于预期的2013年风电装机量,我们下 调了2014和2015年的新增风电装机假设。

因此,我们将13/14/15财年的净利润下调了 1.8%/5.2%/9.1%。

最新收市价为9.46港元,相当于20.4倍/15.8倍/13.4倍的13/14/15 财年市盈率,我们认为并不吸引。

Rating: Neutral Maintained 评级:中性(维持) 6-18m TP目标价: HK$8.45 Revised from原目标价: HK$8.40 Share price股价:HK$9.640 Stock performance 股价表现 Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年 Abs.% 绝对变动% (0.6) 8.4 53.3 Rel.% to HS index 相对恒指变动% 4.9 12.1 57.2 Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价(港元) 9.7 9.6 8.2 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Net Profit 股东净利 EPS 每股净利 EPS 每股净利变动 PER 市盈率 BPS 每股净资产 PBR 市净率 DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2011A 16,159 2,638 0.353 30.7 22.1 3.415 2.3 0.069 0.9 10.8 2012A 17,288 2,593 0.347 (1.9) 22.4 3.662 2.1 0.064 0.8 9.4 2013F 20,127 2,904 0.361 4.3 20.8 3.960 1.9 0.072 1.0 9.5 2014F 22,037 3,704 0.461 27.5 16.1 4.348 1.7 0.092 1.2 11.1 2015F 24,180 4,363 0.543 17.8 13.7 4.799 1.5 0.109 1.5 11.9 Shares in issue (m)总股数(m) 8,093.6 Major shareholder大股东China Guodian Corp 58.0% Market cap. (HK$ m)市值(HK$ m) 78,022.3 Free float (%)自由流通比率(%) 38.3 3 month average vol.3个月平均成交股数(‘000) 12,964.7 FY14 Net gearing (%) FY14净负债/股东资金(%) 177.1 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低10.320/6.250 FY14 Est. NAV (HK$) FY14每股估值(港元) 10.3 Source︰the Company, Guotai Junan International. (30.0) (20.0) (10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 Jan-13 May-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 % of return HSIIndex China Longyuan Power 29 J a n u a ry 2 01 4 C h in a L o n g y u a n P o w e r 龙 源电力 (0 09 16 H K ) C o m p a n y R e p o rt See the last page for disclaimer of 7 Wind power generation of Longyuan Power (“the Company”) in Dec.2013 was below expectation. Wind power generation in Dec. was only up by 6.5% yoy, and the growth rate was 23.1ppt lower MoM, which was mainly due to the weak wind resource, according to the Company. The wind power generation for 2013 was up by 30.4% yoy, while the average generating capacity was up by 19.4% yoy, and the estimated utilisation hour was up by 9.2% yoy. The wind utilisation hours in Dec. is estimated to be roughly 183, down 11.6% yoy, while for the whole year it is estimated to be 2,168, up 183 or 9.2% yoy. The improved utilisation was mainly due to: 1) the overall improvement of wind resources and 2) the decrease of wind curtailment rate. 2013 newly added wind capacity was below expectation. Longyuan Power only added 1,366.2MW wind capacity in 2013, far below its original guidance of 1.6-2GW as well as its revised guidance of 1.5GW. We think the slow construction progress of local power grid might be the main reason for the low capacity growth, which was beyond the control of the Company. 2014 outlook: Wind power capacity installation might speed up in 2014. As the wind curtailment ratio is expected to continue falling in 2014, China’s wind power investment is likely to further pick up in 2014 from RMB63.1 billion in 2013, and we expect Longyuan Power may be able to accelerate its wind capacity installation in 2014 and 2015 by adding 1.5GW and 1.7GW. Wind curtailment ratio of Longyuan Power is expected to further improve from approximately 9.9% in 2013 to 7% and 5% in 2014 and 2015. Maintain "Neutral" rating and slightly revise up TP to HK$8.45. Due to the lower than expected wind capacity installed in 2013, we revise down the wind capacity increase assumption in 2014 and 2015 to 1.5GW and 1.7GW. As a result, we revise down the net profit estimates for FY13/14/15 by 1.8%/5.2%/9.1%. The new EPS estimates for FY13/14/15 are RMB0.361/0.461/0.543, respectively. The last closing price of Longyuan Power is HK$9.64, representing 20.8x/16.1x/13.7x FY13/14/15 PER, which we think is not attractive. We maintain our “Neutral” rating, and TP is slightly revised up to HK$8.45, representing 18.3x/14.1x/12.0x FY13/14/15 PER and 1.7x/1.5x/1.4x FY13/14/15 PBR. Figure-1: Wind curtailment ratio forecast Figure-2: Wind power utilisation hours forecast Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. 16.82 21.80 25.80 29.67 2.70 2.44 1.94 1.5613.9% 9.9% 7.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F MMWh Wind power generation Wind power curtailment Curtailment ratio 2,211 2,3172,3542,2682,217 2,0261,985 2,1682,1392,185 -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Hours Utilisation hours of wind capacity YoY 29 J a n u a ry 2 01 4 C h in a L o n g y u a n P o w e r 龙 源电力 (0 09 16 H K ) C o m p a n y R e p o rt See the last page for disclaimer of 7 Table-1: Key adjustments for Longyuan Power Old Estimates New Estimates %/ppt 2013F 2014F 2015F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2013F 2014F 2015F Operations Average Consolidated Generating Wind Capacity (MW) 10,083 12,204 13,814 10,076 12,060 13,580 -0.1% -1.2% -1.7% Wind curtailment rate 9.9% 7.0% 5.0% 9.9% 7.0% 5.0% 0ppt 0ppt 0ppt Utilization Hour (Hr) 2,164 2,139 2,185 2,164 2,139 2,185 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Wind Power Generation (MMWh) 21,814 26,104 30,183 21,800 25,796 29,672 -0.1% -1.2% -1.7% Wind Power Sold (MMWh) 20,942 25,190 29,278 20,928 24,893 28,782 -0.1% -1.2% -1.7% Wind Power On-grid Tariff (VAT incl.) (RMB/MWh) 584 585 586 584 585 586 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Average Consolidated Generating Coal-fired Capacity (MW) 1,875 1,875 1,875 1,875 1,875 1,875 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Utilization Hour of Coal-fired Capacity 6,012 5,973 5,936 6,124 6,175 6,241 1.9% 3.4% 5.1% Coal-fired Power Generation (MMWh) 11,273 11,200 11,130 11,483 11,578 11,702 1.9% 3.4% 5.1% Coal-fired Power Sold (MMWh) 10,540 10,478 10,417 10,737 10,831 10,953 1.9% 3.4% 5.1% Coal-fired On-grid Tariff (VAT incl.) (RMB/MWh) 450 419 419 450 419 419 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Standard Coal Consumption per Power Generated (g/KWh) 295 295 295 295 295 295 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Standard Coal Price (VAT excl.) (RMB/t) 606 606 606 606 606 606 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Unit Fuel Cost of Coal-fired Power Sold (RMB/MWh) 191 191 191 191 191 191 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Dark Spread (RMB/MWh) 194 167 167 194 167 167 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Registered CDMCapacity as of Dec 31 (MW) 12,343 13,943 15,643 12,198 13,698 15,398 -1.2% -1.8% -1.6% CERASP (EUR/t) 0.75 1.25 2.00 0.40 0.50 0.50 -46.7% -60.0% -75.0% CERs and VERs Revenue (RMBMn) 144 281 517 76 111 127 -47.0% -60.6% -75.4% Financials (RMBMn) Electricity Sales Revenue 14,979 16,838 18,886 15,038 16,797 18,811 0.4% -0.2% -0.4% Service concession construction revenue 548 587 608 506 569 608 -7.5% -3.0% 0.0% Other Sales Revenue 4,582 4,671 4,760 4,582 4,671 4,760 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sales Revenue 20,109 22,095 24,255 20,127 22,037 24,180 0.1% -0.3% -0.3% Other Net Income 698 816 988 632 640 591 -9.5% -21.6% -40.2% Total Revenue 20,807 22,911 25,243 20,759 22,677 24,771 -0.2% -1.0% -1.9% Service concession construction costs (548) (587) (608) (506) (569) (608) -7.5% -3.0% 0.0% Coal consumption (2,174) (2,161) (2,149) (2,212) (2,229) (2,251) 1.7% 3.1% 4.8% Coal sales cost (3,458) (3,527) (3,598) (3,458) (3,527) (3,598) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D&A (4,083) (4,422) (4,784) (4,083) (4,382) (4,727) 0.0% -0.9% -1.2% Personnel costs (995) (1,107) (1,226) (985) (1,090) (1,209) -1.0% -1.5% -1.4% Material costs (569) (587) (593) (561) (573) (579) -1.3% -2.5% -2.5% R&M (632) (782) (949) (632) (774) (934) 0.0% -1.0% -1.5% Administration expenses (427) (475) (526) (422) (467) (518) -1.0% -1.5% -1.4% Other operating expenses (469) (516) (568) (471) (515) (566) 0.3% -0.2% -0.3% Operating Cost (13,355) (14,165) (15,000) (13,331) (14,126) (14,991) -0.2% -0.3% -0.1% Operating profit 7,452 8,746 10,243 7,428 8,551 9,780 -0.3% -2.2% -4.5% Net finance expenses (2,704) (2,996) (3,272) (2,710) (2,993) (3,262) 0.2% -0.1% -0.3% Profit from asso. & JV 93 104 115 93 104 115 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% PBT 4,840 5,854 7,085 4,810 5,661 6,634 -0.6% -3.3% -6.4% Income tax (695) (965) (1,324) (691) (936) (1,245) -0.5% -3.0% -6.0% PAT 4,145 4,889 5,761 4,119 4,725 5,389 -0.6% -3.3% -6.5% Minority Interest 1,189 981 964 1,215 1,021 1,026 2.2% 4.1% 6.4% Net Profit 2,956 3,908 4,797 2,904 3,704 4,363 -1.8% -5.2% -9.1% EPS (RMB) 0.368 0.486 0.597 0.361 0.461 0.543 -1.8% -5.2% -9.1% DPS (RMB) 0.074 0.097 0.119 0.072 0.092 0.109 -1.8% -5.2% -9.1% Margins and ratios EBITDAMargin 55.9% 57.9% 60.0% 55.9% 57.5% 59.0% 0ppt -0.4ppt -1ppt Operating Margin 35.8% 38.2% 40.6% 35.8% 37.7% 39.5% 0ppt -0.5ppt -1.1ppt Net Profit Margin 14.7% 17.7% 19.8% 14.4% 16.8% 18.0% -0.3ppt -0.9ppt -1.7ppt Interest Coverage Ratio 223.1% 242.9% 264.7% 222.4% 237.7% 253.0% -0.7ppt -5.3ppt -11.8ppt ROE 9.6% 11.7% 12.9% 9.5% 11.1% 11.9% -0.2ppt -0.6ppt -1ppt Net Debt/Equity 147.4% 146.7% 143.9% 145.2% 144.6% 143.8% -2.2ppt -2ppt -0.1ppt Source: Guotai Junan International. 29 J a n u a ry 2 01 4 C h in a L o n g y u a n P o w e r 龙 源电力 (0 09 16 H K ) C o m p a n y R e p o rt See the last page for disclaimer of 7 Table-2: Sensitivity analysis for Longyuan Power (1) 2014FBase Case EPS = RMB0.461 2014FAvg borrowing rate = 5.53% 5.03% 5.28% 5.53% 5.78% 6.03% 2014FWind curtailment rate = 7% 5.0% 0.519 0.505 0.490 0.475 0.460 6.0% 0.505 0.490 0.475 0.461 0.446 7.0% 0.490 0.476 0.461 0.446 0.431 8.0% 0.476 0.461 0.446 0.432 0.417 9.0% 0.461 0.447 0.432 0.417 0.402 Source: Guotai Junan International. Table-3: Sensitivity analysis for Longyuan Power (2) 2014FBase Case EPS = RMB0.461 2014FAvg borrowing rate = 5.53% 5.03% 5.28% 5.53% 5.78% 6.03% 2014FWind curtailment rate = 7% 5.0% 12.7% 9.5% 6.3% 3.1% -0.1% 6.0% 9.5% 6.3% 3.1% 0.0% -3.2% 7.0% 6.4% 3.2% 0.0% -3.2% -6.4% 8.0% 3.2% 0.0% -3.1% -6.3% -9.5% 9.0% 0.1% -3.1% -6.3% -9.5% -12.7% Source: Guotai Junan International. Figure-3: CER spot price is still at bottom Figure-4: Wind power capacity forecast Source: European Climate Exchange, Guotai Junan International. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Figure-5: Estimated monthly wind utilisation hours Figure-6: Estimated YTD wind utilisation hours Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. 2.88 0.38 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 J a n -1 2 A p r- 12 J u l- 12 O c t- 12 J a n -1 3 A p r- 13 J u l- 13 O c t- 13 J a n -1 4 EUR/t CER spot price Annual Avg 587 1,298 2,503 4,504 6,556 8,598 10,544 11,910 13,410 15,110 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F MWInstalled wind capacity Average operating wind capacity Avg operating wind capacity YoY -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Hours 20102011201220132013YoY 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Hours 20102011201220132013YoY 29 J a n u a ry 2 01 4 C h in a L o n g y u a n P o w e r 龙 源电力 (0 09 16 H K ) C o m p a n y R e p o rt See the last page for disclaimer of 7 Figure-7: Forward PER curve for Longyuan Power Figure-8: P/B curve for Longyuan Power Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Table-4: Wind Farm Operators Peers Comparison Mkt cap PER (x) PB (x) ROE (%) Company Ticker Currency Price (HK$ Mn) 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F 13F 14F 15F Hong Kong Market CHINALONGYUANPOWERGROUP-H 916 HKHKD 9.64 78,022 20.8 16.1 13.7 1.9 1.7 1.5 9.5 11.1 11.9 HUANENGRENEWABLESCORP-H 958 HKHKD 3.27 29,526 19.2 13.9 11.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 8.9 11.1 12.6 CHINADATANGCORPRENEWABL-H 1798 HKHKD 1.54 11,201 22.8 14.5 9.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 4.3 6.4 9.2 HUADIANFUXINENERGYCORP -H 816 HKHKD 3.59 27,365 13.6 11.6 8.5 1.8 1.5 1.3 13.4 14.5 16.1 Hong Kong Market Mean (Simple) 19.1 14.0 10.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 9.0 10.8 12.4 Hong Kong Market Mean (Weighted) 19.3 14.7 11.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 9.7 11.4 12.6 Hong Kong Market Median 20.0 14.2 10.3 1.7 1.5 1.3 9.2 11.1 12.2 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Note: Valuations of Huaneng Renewables and Huadian Fuxin Energy are from Bloomberg estimates. J a n -1 0 A p r- 10 J u l- 10 O c t- 10 D e c -1 0 A p r- 11 J u l- 11 S e p -1 1 D e c -1 1 M a r- 1 2 J u n -1 2 S e p -1 2 D e c -1 2 M a r- 1 3 J u n -1 3 S e p -1 3 D e c -1 3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Longyuan (X) PER (historical mean) PER (current) PER (High) PER (Low) Longyuan Power PER band J a n -1 0 A p r- 1 0 J u l- 1 0 O c t- 1 0 D e c -1 0 A p r- 1 1 J u l- 1 1 S e p -1 1 D e c -1 1 M a r- 12 J u n -1 2 S e p -1 2 D e c -1 2 M a r- 13 J u n -1 3 S e p -1 3 D e c -1 3 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Longyuan (X) P/B (historical mean) P/B (current) P/B (High) P/B (Low) Longyuan Power P/B band 29 J a n u a ry 2 01 4 C h in a L o n g y u a n P o w e r 龙 源电力 (0 09 16 H K ) C o m p a n y R e p o rt See the last page for disclaimer of 7 Financial Statements and Ratios Income Statement Balance Sheet Year end Dec (RMB m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Revenue 16,159 17,288 20,127 22,037 24,180 PP&E 61,337 73,352 79,150 85,826 92,905 Other Net Income & Other Gains 1,271 1,296 632 640 591 Investment properties 98 76 58 41 24 Total Revenue 17,431 18,584 20,759 22,677 24,771 Lease prepayments 1,160 1,417 1,515 1,628 1,749 Intangible assets 8,162 8,322 8,455 8,646 8,867 Concession Construction Costs (793) (519) (506) (569) (608) Others 6,375 6,886 6,186 7,872 9,395 D&A (2,845) (3,697) (4,083) (4,382) (4,727) Non-current Assets 77,133 90,054 95,365 104,013 112,941 Coal consumption (2,877) (2,627) (2,212) (2,229) (2,251) Coal sales cost (3,897) (3,197) (3,458) (3,527) (3,598) Inventories 890 816 820 841 864 Personnel costs (769) (925) (985) (1,090) (1,209) Receivables 5,157 7,998 8,870 8,822 9,687 Material Costs (328) (479) (561) (573) (579) Prepayments 2,772 3,155 2,198 2,147 2,077 Repairs & Maintenance (254) (305) (632) (774) (934) Cash and Equivalent 3,295 5,081 6,211 6,197 6,194 SG&A (294) (402) (422) (467) (518) Others 860 736 594 700 869 Other Expenses (338) (390) (471) (515) (566) Current Assets 12,974 17,786 18,693 18,707 19,692 Total Assets 90,107 107,840 114,058 122,720 132,633 Opt. Profit 5,036 6,045 7,428 8,551 9,780 Payables 1,597 1,261 969 1,055 1,111 Net Financial Exp. (1,487) (2,518) (2,710) (2,993) (3,262) Current Borrowings 16,369 26,170 25,432 27,230 29,336 Net Proceeds from Asso. & JV 60 140 93 104 115 Tax payable 158 119 77 57 75 Other payables 8,222 8,525 7,096 7,991 8,696 Profit before Tax 3,609 3,667 4,810 5,661 6,634 Current Liabilities 26,345 36,075 33,573 36,332 39,218 Taxation (305) (342) (691) (936) (1,245) Non-current Borrowings 31,308 32,482 38,148 40,844 44,005 Profit after Tax 3,304 3,325 4,119 4,725 5,389 Others Non-Current Liabilities 2,587 2,861 2,825 2,762 2,708 Minority Interest (667) (732) (1,215) (1,021) (1,026) Non-current Liabilities 33,896 35,343 40,973 43,607 46,713 Net Profit 2,638 2,593 2,904 3,704 4,363 Equity to Shareholders 25,490 29,429 31,822 34,945 38,567 EPS (Basic) 0.353 0.347 0.361 0.461 0.543 Minority Interest 4,375 6,992 7,690 7,836 8,134 Dividend 515 512 581 741 873 Total Equity 29,866 36,422 39,512 42,781 46,701 DPS 0.069 0.064 0.072 0.092 0.109 Total Liability and Equity 90,107 107,840 114,058 122,720 132,633 BVPS 3.41 3.66 3.96 4.35 4.80 Margin and Efficiency Cash Flow Statement 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F EBITDAMargin (%) 45.6 53.2 55.9 57.5 59.0 PBT 3,609 3,667 4,810 5,661 6,634 Operating Margin (%) 28.9 32.5 35.8 37.7 39.5 Net Profit Margin (%) 16.3 15.0 14.4 16.8 18.0 Depreciation & Amortization 2,845 3,697 4,083 4,382 4,727 Dividend Payout Ratio (%) 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.0 20.0 Net Interest Expense 1,567 2,491 2,705 2,988 3,257 Inventory Days 15.9 16.8 14.4 13.4 12.6 Changes in WC (1,633) (2,161) 124 243 (595) Receivable Days 90.4 129.2 148.3 142.4 136.4 Income tax paid (371) (471) (760) (1,030) (1,370) Payable Days 32.6 28.1 19.6 16.3 16.0 Others (394) (225) (118) (129) (140) Operating Cash Flow 5,624 6,998 10,844 12,116 12,513 Growth (%) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Capital Investment (13,048) (13,745) (10,125) (11,376) (12,164) Acquisitions (1,071) (1,759) (506) (569) (608) Total Revenue 14.7 6.6 11.7 9.2 9.2 Others 85 1,386 379 359 336 EBITDA 21.4 24.4 17.4 12.3 12.2 Investing Cash Flow (14,034) (14,117) (10,252) (11,586) (12,435) Operating Profit 23.4 20.0 22.9 15.1 14.4 Net Profit 30.7 (1.7) 12.0 27.5 17.8 Share Issue 0 2,295 0 0 0 Dividend 27.8 (7.7) 13.5 27.5 17.8 Perpetual Securities Issue 0 2,476 0 0 0 Interest Paid (2,094) (3,025) (3,178) (3,423) (3,677) Valuation Proceeds from borrowings 38,843 26,071 34,000 36,000 39,000 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Repayment of borrowings (28,337) (18,004) (29,326) (31,790) (34,037) Others (775) (957) (957) (1,332) (1,366) PE (X) 22.1 22.4 20.8 16.1 13.7 Financing Cash Flow 7,637 8,856 539 (544) (80) EV/Sales (X) 6.5 6.6 5.9 5.6 5.3 EV/EBITDA (X) 13.2 11.5 10.2 9.4 8.7 Net Change of Cash (773) 1,736 1,131 (14) (3) P/BV (X) 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 ROE (%) 10.8 9.4 9.5 11.1 11.9 Cash b/f 4,081 3,358 5,081 6,211 6,197 ROA (%) 3.2 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 FXAdjustments (13) (13) 0 0 0 ROC (%) 7.5 7.4 8.0 8.5 9.0 Cash c/f 3,295 5,081 6,211 6,197 6,194 Financial Ratios 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Net Debt/Equity (X) 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 Long-term Debt/Equity (X) 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 Current Ratio (X) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 Interest Coverage (X) 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. 29 J a n u a ry 2 01 4 C h in a L o n g y u a n P o w e r 龙 源电力 (0 09 16 H K ) C o m p a n y R e p o rt See the last page for disclaimer of 7 Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favourable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favourable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavourable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavourable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favourable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavourable. DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited-H shares (01812) and China City Railway Transportation Technology Holdings Company Limited (01522), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment banking relationships with the issuer mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 2014 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza,181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong. 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