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研究报告:高华证券-美股观点标普500指数2013年四季度盈利的最新动态:全年EPS预期108美元-140201

研报作者:Amanda Sneider,高思庭,Stuart Kaiser 来自:高华证券 时间:2014-02-07 10:14:40
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研究报告内容

2014年2月1日 美国 美股观点 证券研究报告 标普500指数2013年四季度盈利的最新动态:全年EPS预期108美元 在四季度业绩期主要的第二周过后(发布业绩的企业占总市值的67%),截至目前的四个要点如下:(1)继 本业绩期疲弱的开端之后,越来越多的企业公布盈利超预期;(2)各企业继续公布收入超预期;(3)经营杠 杆高的企业呈现收入更为强劲增长的迹象;以及(4)对2014年业绩的指引和调整趋于下行。

下周将是2013 年四季度业绩期的最后一个发布高峰:占标普500指数市值12%的91家公司将公布业绩,包括:GILD、 MRK、DIS、EXC和PM。

交易概况请参见第5页。

业绩发布日期请参见第9-11页。

在一个相对疲弱的开端后,四季度盈利有所改善 盈利好于预期的企业占比从上周的39%升至47%。

剔除会计操作调整的影响后, 企业盈利较预期高出3.7%。

综合已公布盈利和市场的盈利预测,标普500指数四 季度每股盈利目前预计为29.07美元。

2013年经营性每股盈利预测目前为108美 元(增长12%)。

企业持续公布强劲的收入 收入高于预期的企业占比仍高于40个季度均值。

汇率浮动和需求走软导致最近几 个季度收入不及预期。

GDP和收入的加速增长是我们对2014年股市预测的重要 组成部分。

经营杠杆高的企业呈现收入更为强劲增长的迹象 经营杠杆高的成分股继续公布强劲业绩。

随着GDP加速增长,经营杠杆高的股票 的销售也应加快增长,从而最大程度地提升其利润率和每股盈利。

2013年每股盈利预测为108美元 资料来源: Compustat、FirstCall、I/B/E/S、高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 Amanda Sneider, CFA (212) 357-9860 amanda.sneider@gs.com 高盛集团 高思庭 (212) 902-6781 david.kostin@gs.com 高盛集团 Stuart Kaiser, CFA (212) 357-6308 stuart.kaiser@gs.com 高盛集团 Ben Snider (212) 357-1744 ben.snider@gs.com 高盛集团 Rima Reddy (801) 884-4794 rima.reddy@gs.com 高盛集团 Aaron Woodside (212) 902-9693 aaron.woodside@gs.com 高盛集团 高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系,并且继续寻求发展这些关系。

因此,投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本 报告客观性的利益冲突,不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。

有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息,见信息披露附录,或参阅 /research/hedge.html。

由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国FINRA的注册/合格研究分析师。

高盛集团 全球投资研究 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 31 -D ec 31 -J an 28 -F eb 31 -M ar 30 -A pr 31 -M ay 30 -J un 31 -J ul 31 -A ug 30 -S ep 31 -O ct 30 -N ov 31 -D ec 31 -J an 28 -F eb 31 -M ar S& P 50 0 20 13 E EP S Consensus Bottom-Up $108S&P 5002013EEPS Goldman Sachs $108 2014年2月1日 美国 全球投资研究2 Revenue beats impressive while earnings now in line with history After a relatively weak start,4Q earnings results have improved. Last week, after 25% of the index had reported, only 39% of S&P 500 companies beat consensus earnings expectations by more than one standard deviation. After an additional 25% of the index reported this week, the percentage of earnings beats rose to 47%, in line with the 40 quarter average (see Exhibit 1). Strong top-line results continue.40% of firms beat consensus sales expectations by more than one standard deviation (vs. ten-year average of 35%).12% of firms have disappointed on sales by that magnitude (vs.20%). Exhibit 1: Earnings beats improved during the season as of January 31,2014 Exhibit 2: Revenue beats well above historical average as of January 31,2014 Source: Compustat, FirstCall, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Compustat, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Revenue results in the Health Care and Information Technology sectors have been particularly strong.76% of reported Health Care companies and 56% of reported Info Tech firms exceeded consensus sales estimates. Info Tech and Health Care represent about 30% of reported companies, but half of revenue beats. Despite revenue beats, Information Technology sales fell 1% relative to the 4Q 2012 sales level. Exhibit 3: Results and consensus bottom-up estimates for 4Q 2013 earnings season as of January 30,2014 Source: Compustat, I/B/E/S, FirstCall, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 010203040506070 Po si tiv e Su rp ris es (% o f t ot al ) Number of Days into Earnings Season 4Q 2013 40 quarter average POSITIVEEARNINGS SURPRISES 3Q 2013 Last 4 quarters 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 010203040506070 Po si tiv e Su rp ris es (% o f t ot al ) Number of Days into Earnings Season 4Q 201340 quarter average (2004-2013) POSITIVEREVENUE SURPRISES 3Q 2013 Last 4 quarters 4QE 2013 Realized and Bottom-up Consensus EPSSales Margin $/Share Growth $/Share Growth Level Change Financials $5.5743% NMNMNMNM Industrials 2.9136 $326% 9.0% 201 bp Materials 0.73201166.579 Health Care 3.03133668.451 Info Tech 5.88732 (1) 18.4139 Energy 3.2664357.510 Consumer Discretionary 2.88444126.6 (46) Consumer Staples 2.58 (3) 39 (7) 6.626 Utilities 0.70 (4) NMNMNMNM Telecom Services 1.53 NM 8 (10) 19.02854 S&P 500 $29.0726% ex. Financials and Utilities 22.8023 $2453% 9.3% 152 bp 2014年2月1日 美国 全球投资研究3 The rolling four-quarter operating margin is tracking at 8.9%, a return to the previous peak reached in 3Q 2011. While the majority of operating margin expansion is due to the anniversarying of negative atypical operating items and pension-related gains this quarter, margin levels that exclude these items also returned to peak levels. We expect margins to remain flat over 2014, although consensus expects further expansion to 9.5%. Exhibit 4: S&P 500 margins return to all-time highs as of January 30,2014 Source: Compustat, FirstCall, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Accelerating GDP growth and revenue growth are key components to our 2014 equity forecast. Our year-end 2014 S&P 500 target of 1900 suggests a potential price gain of 6%. We believe the 2014 equity return will depend on earnings and money flow rather than multiple expansion. With margins back at peak levels and our expectation of no margin growth in 2014, our earnings growth forecast of 7% is dependent on strong sales growth. Our expectations for accelerating USGDP and revenue growth in 2014 also imply S&P 500 capital expenditure growth should begin to pick up following weak growth in 2013. We expect capital expenditures will grow by 9% in 2014 versus 2% in 2013. Constituents of our high operating leverage basket (Bloomberg ticker: *) continue to report strong earnings and revenue results. As GDP growth accelerates, stocks in our High Operating Leverage basket should see the largest boost to margins and EPS from faster sales growth. Strong 4Q earnings results from this basket coincide with real USGDP growth of 3.2%. So far,73% of reported high operating leverage constituents () beat earnings expectations and 55% () beat revenue expectations. In contrast, only 42% reported Low Operating Leverage constituents () beat consensus expectations. Since January 3, our High Operating Leverage basket outperformed our Low Operating Leverage basket by 163 bp. * Note: The ability to trade these baskets will depend upon market conditions, including liquidity and borrow constraints at the time of trade. Exhibit 5: High Operating Leverage stocks reported strong earnings and revenue beats earnings results as of January 31,2014; performance as of January 30,2014 Source: Compustat, FirstCall, Bloomberg, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 S&P 500 Net Profit Margin (trailing four quarters) Recurring Earnings Margin Operating Margin 9.0% 8.9% 8.0% 8.2% 8.4% 8.6% 8.8% 9.0% 9.2% 9.4% D ec -1 0 M ar -1 1 Ju n- 11 Se p- 11 D ec -1 1 M ar -1 2 Ju n- 12 Se p- 12 D ec -1 2 M ar -1 3 Ju n- 13 Se p- 13 D ec -1 3 M ar -1 4 Ju n- 14 S&P 500 Net Profit Margin (trailing four quarters) Recurring Earnings Margin Operating Margin 9.0% 8.9% Bloomberg EPSSurprises Sales Surprises Performance Ticker Reported Positive Negative Positive Negative Since Jan 3 High Operating Leverage GSTHOPHI 44% 73% 5% 55% 18% (0.2)% Low Operating Leverage GSTHOPLO 484217428 (1.8) S&P 50050% 47% 10% 40% 12% (2.0)% 2014年2月1日 美国 全球投资研究4 Downside to 2014 consensus estimates Bottom-up consensus full-year 2014 estimates are down 70 bp since the start of earnings season. Consensus forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $118 in 2014 implying 9% growth versus full-year 2013. Analysts increased 2014 earnings expectations for the Telecom Services and Financials sectors but lowered Health Care and Materials estimates. Exhibit 6: S&P 5002013EEPS is now $108 as of January 30,2014 Exhibit 7: Consensus S&P 5002014EEPS is $118 as of January 30,2014 Source: Compustat, FirstCall, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Compustat, FirstCall, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Management guidance indicates downside to 2014 EPS.81 companies with fiscal-year ends between November and January provided full-year 2014 guidance following their 4Q earnings announcements.77% of firms have guided below consensus expectations, more than historically (65%). The median company provided guidance 1% below consensus expectations. Exhibit 8: Bottom-up consensus revisions to 2014 earnings, sales, and margins as of January 30,2014 Source: Compustat, FirstCall, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 31 -D ec 31 -J an 28 -F eb 31 -M ar 30 -A pr 31 -M ay 30 -J un 31 -J ul 31 -A ug 30 -S ep 31 -O ct 30 -N ov 31 -D ec 31 -J an 28 -F eb 31 -M ar S& P 50 0 20 13 E EP S Consensus Bottom-Up $108 S&P 5002013EEPS Goldman Sachs $108 110 112 114 116 118 120 122 124 126 D ec -1 2 Ja n- 13 Fe b- 13 M ar -1 3 A pr -1 3 M ay -1 3 Ju n- 13 Ju l-1 3 A ug -1 3 Se p- 13 O ct -1 3 N ov -1 3 D ec -1 3 Ja n- 14 Fe b- 14 M ar -1 4 S&P 5002014EEPS Consensus Bottom-Up $118 Goldman Sachs $116 Revisions to 2014 EPSSales Margin S&P 500 (0.7)% ex. Financials and Utilities (1.0) (0.2)% (7)bp Telecom Services 0.6% 0.1% 5 bp Financials 0.1 NMNM Utilities (0.1) NMNM Industrials (0.3) (0.1) (2) Consumer Staples (0.5) (0.2) (2) Info Tech (0.6) (0.3) (5) Energy (1.0) (0.3) (6) Consumer Discretionary (1.1) (0.0) (8) Materials (1.6) (0.6) (8) Health Care (2.4) (0.0) (22) 2014年2月1日 美国 全球投资研究5 How the market is trading earnings Macro may be driving markets, but earnings still matter.67% of stocks that beat on earnings outperformed the market on the next trading day, while 73% of stocks that missed earnings underperformed. Consumer Discretionary and Industrials stocks that beat consensus earnings estimates by one standard deviation or more have been the most likely to outperform the market on the next trading day. Although the majority of Information Technology and Health Care stocks beat earnings expectations, half of stocks that beat within those sectors underperformed the market on the next trading day. Exhibit 9: Hit rate of outperformance 1 day post-report as of January 30,2014 Exhibit 10: Hit rate of outperformance following results as of January 30,2014 Note: * indicates fewer than four firms in sample Source: IDC, FirstCall, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: IDC, FirstCall, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. The market has been more likely to reward sales and earnings beats this quarter relative to earlier 2013 seasons. In the first three quarters,61% of stocks that beat earnings estimates and 59% of stocks that beat sales estimates outperformed the market on the next trading day. This compares to 67% and 63% this quarter. Exhibit 11: Hit rate for earnings and sales beats as of January 30,2014 Exhibit 12: Hit rate for earnings and sales misses as of January 30,2014 Source: IDC, FirstCall, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: IDC, FirstCall, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Hit rate of outperformance Earnings Beat In-Line Miss Total Beat 69% 50% 50% 63% In-Line 64% 44% 33% 50% Miss 67% 29% 0% 31% Total 67% 43% 27% 53% 220 Stocks Sa le s Hit rate Earnings Beat In-line Miss S&P 50067% 43% 27% ex. Financials 65 42 29 Utilities 100%* 75% NA% Consumer Discretionary 90 31 0 * Industrials 82 33 0 Financials 76 47 20 Consumer Staples 75 50 33 * Materials 67 38 NA Energy 60 33 100 * Information Technology 54 69 33 * Health Care 43 36 NA Telecom Services 0 * 0 * 100 * 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 4Q 07 2Q 08 4Q 08 2Q 09 4Q 09 2Q 10 4Q 10 2Q 11 4Q 11 2Q 12 4Q 12 2Q 13 4Q 13 2Q 14 H it ra te v er su s S& P 50 0 (% ) Earnings Beat Sales BeatHit rate of outperformance one day post earnings 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 4Q 07 2Q 08 4Q 08 2Q 09 4Q 09 2Q 10 4Q 10 2Q 11 4Q 11 2Q 12 4Q 12 2Q 13 4Q 13 2Q 14 H it ra te v er su s S& P 50 0 (% ) Earnings Miss Sales Miss Hit rate of outperformance one day post earnings 2014年2月1日 美国 全球投资研究6 S&P 5004QEPS tracking 5% above consensus estimate Using a mix of realized and consensus earnings,4QEPS is tracking 5% above the consensus estimate at the start of reporting season, $29.07 vs. $27.59. S&P 500 full- year 2013 EPS is currently $108 on an operating basis (12% growth versus 2012) and $110 on an adjusted basis (6% growth). In aggregate, reported companies beat EPS estimates by 9.1%. Excluding the impact of accounting adjustments, companies beat estimates by 3.7%. Consumer results have been weak so far. Reported Consumer Staples companies missed estimates by 1% and Consumer Discretionary companies positively surprised by just 1%.60% of EPS for both sectors is left to report. Both sectors have underperformed the S&P 500 in 2014. Exhibit 13: Division of 4QEPS changes as of January 30,2014 Exhibit 14: 4QEPS is tracking 5% above season start as of January 30,2014 Consensus analyst estimates may differ from the Standard & Poor’s definition due both to accounting differences and definitions of earnings from operations. Source: Compustat, FirstCall, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Compustat, FirstCall, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Accounting differences have totaled $0.94. Pension adjustments are having a positive effect on S&P 500 EPS and the Telecom Services sector in particular. Verizon’s (VZ) mark-to-market adjustment increased index-level EPS by $0.41 this quarter vs. a $0.52 reduction in 4Q 2012. AT&T’s (T) pension-related gain added $0.53 to S&P 500 EPS vs. $-0.70 in 2012. Exhibit 15: 4QEPS surprises by sector as of January 31,2014 Exhibit 16: 4QEPS, sales, and margin surprises by sector as of January 31,2014; uses adjusted EPS Source: Compustat, FirstCall, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Compustat, FirstCall, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Estimate $17.61 Reported $19.21 Estimate $9.98 Yet to Report $9.86 $0 $4 $8 $12 $16 $20 $24 $28 $32 Jan 3 Jan 30 $27.59 $29.07 Change Jan 3 Jan 30 Points % S&P 500 EPS $27.59 $29.07 $1.485.4% Reported 17.6119.211.609.1 Surprise 0.66 Accounting/Definition 0.94 Revision 9.989.86 (0.12) (1.2) S&P 500 EPSChange Accounting/ Reported Surprise Definition Telecom Services $ 0.98 $ 0.02 $ 0.96 Financials 0.290.120.17 Info Tech 0.120.25 (0.13) Industrials 0.070.060.01 Energy 0.060.050.02 Consumer Discretionary 0.030.010.02 Consumer Staples 0.02 (0.01) 0.04 Health Care 0.010.10 (0.09) Materials 0.010.06 (0.05) Utilities (0.01) 0.01 (0.01) S&P 500 $ 1.60 $ 0.66 $ 0.94 % of EPS 4Q 2013 Surprise Reported EPSSales Margin Materials 63% 13.0% (0.2)% 77 bp Health Care 635.12.819 Info Tech 864.90.588 Utilities 214.3 NMNM Financials 683.4 NMNM Telecom Services 973.20.320 Industrials 822.71.313 Energy 622.44.0 (10) Consumer Discretionary 371.00.44 Consumer Staples 36 (1.3) (0.1) (10) S&P 50066% 3.7% ex. Financials and Utilities 673.71.6% 21 bp 2014年2月1日 美国 全球投资研究7 S&P 500 earnings results Exhibit 17: S&P 5004Q 2013 earnings results as of January 31,2014 (a) Result for each company relative to the standard deviation of consensus estimates two weeks prior to reporting date. (b) Result for each company relative to the average consensus estimates two weeks prior to reporting date. Source: Compustat, FirstCall, Bloomberg, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Exhibit 18: Earnings and revenue result matrix as of January 31,2014 Exhibit 19: Positive earnings surprises over time as of January 31,2014 Source: FirstCall, Bloomberg, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: FirstCall, Bloomberg, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. S&P 500 EQUAL-WEIGHTED EARNINGSREVENUEReturn Number of Companies Std Dev Surprises (a) Absolute Surprises (b) Avg 4QStd Dev Surprises (a) Avg 4Q since P/E Reported Total % of Co's Positive Negative In-Line Positive Negative Surprise Positive Negative Surprise 30-Nov-13 (NTM) Information Technology 456569% 58% 9% 33% 73% 16% 7% 56% 16% 1% 4.9% 18.2 Materials 203165550457515111510 (0) 0.318.6 Health Care 2954545234583101676754.319.2 Industrials 40646348134060253481010.517.5 Financials 4481544311457025434910.015.3 Consumer Discretionary 3184373913486832323160 (3.4) 17.9 Consumer Staples 1340333823386231215310 (1.6) 18.0 Energy 1944433711535347113216 (0) (1.7) 17.3 Telecom Services 3650333333673353303 (2.4) 23.6 Utilities 731232914575729200 (0) 2.815.9 S&P 50025150050% 47% 10% 43% 69% 24% 6% 40% 12% 1% 0.5% 17.5 S&P 500 ex. Financials 20741949% 47% 10% 43% 68% 24% 7% 41% 13% 1% 0.6% 18.0 Comparative Data (full earnings season) 3Q 2013500500100% 43% 13% 43% 67% 24% 5% 26% 24% 0% 2Q 20135005001004714386427730211 1Q 20134995001004414416428520300 4Q 20124985001004214446726534131 S&P 500 CAP-WEIGHTED EARNINGSREVENUEReturn Weight of Companies Std Dev Surprises (a) Absolute Surprises (b) Avg 4QStd Dev Surprises (a) Avg 4Q since P/E Reported Total % of Co's Positive Negative In-Line Positive Negative Surprise Positive Negative Surprise 30-Nov-13 (NTM) Materials 3376% 74% 0% 26% 89% 8% 14% 29% 3% 0% 0.6% 16.1 Health Care 9136659338839864532.617.3 Information Technology 1619855793467284401011.314.7 Telecom Services 2293527419375701 (3.5) 13.8 Industrials 9118245104552183391610.116.3 Utilities 13333724394848000 (0) 3.115.3 Financials 111667281260742432232 (0.4) 13.4 Consumer Staples 410382322556335 (0) 527 (0) (4.2) 16.6 Consumer Discretionary 61245205755941 (3) 2622 (0) (2.5) 18.2 Energy 7107416480277331220 (1) (1.9) 12.7 S&P 5006710067% 42% 8% 50% 64% 29% 4% 32% 11% 1% (0.4)% 15.2 S&P 500 ex. Financials 568467% 44% 8% 48% 62% 30% 4% 34% 13% 1% (0.4)% 15.7 Earnings Surprise Positive Inline Negative Total Positive 27% 11% 2% 40% Inline 17% 25% 5% 47% Negative 3% 7% 3% 12% Total 47% 43% 10% R ev en ue S ur pr is e 251 Stocks 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 Po si tiv e Su rp ris es (% o f t ot al ) POSITIVEEARNINGS SURPRISES 4Q 2013 10 Year Average 2014年2月1日 美国 全球投资研究8 Upcoming earnings reports Next week is the last major earnings week of the 4Q 2013 season.12% of equity cap,91 companies, is set to report. At least 20% of Health Care and Consumer Discretionary market cap will announce results next week. Exhibit 20: Reports by sector for week of February 3 as of January 31,2014 Exhibit 21: Remaining reports for 4Q 2013 season as of January 31,2014 Source: FirstCall, Bloomberg, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: FirstCall, Bloomberg, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Exhibit 22: Expected report dates and times for selected stocks reporting next week as of January 31,2014 Source: Compustat, FirstCall, Bloomberg, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Week of February 3,2014 Companies % Co % Cap S&P 5009118% 12% % of sector Health Care 1324% 22% Consumer Discretionary 131520 Consumer Staples 82016 Utilities 41312 Financials 222712 Materials 51610 Industrials 10169 Energy 7168 Information Technology 9145 Telecom Services 000 What's left in 4Q 2013 Companies % Co % Cap S&P 50024950% 33% % of sector Utilities 2477% 67% Consumer Staples 276862 Consumer Discretionary 536355 Health Care 254634 Financials 374633 Energy 255726 Materials 113524 Industrials 243818 Information Technology 203115 Telecom Services 3507 Tuesday, February 4,2014 Gilead Sciences GILDHealth Care PM Wednesday, February 5,2014 Merck & Co. MRKHealth Care AM The Walt Disney DISConsumer Discretionary PM Thursday, February 6,2014 Exelon Corp. EXCUtilities AM Philip Morris Intl PMConsumer Staples 2014年2月1日 美国 全球投资研究9 4Q 2013 Earnings Calendar (week of February 3,2014) Exhibit 23: Expected report dates for S&P 500 stocks reporting next week as of January 30,2014 Source: Compustat, FirstCall, Bloomberg, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. 4Q 2013 Consensus 4Q 2013 YTDMkt Cap P/EGoldman Standard YTDYear/Year Company name Ticker Industry Return ($ bil) (NTM) Sachs Consensus Deviation Revisions Growth Monday, February 3,2014 Consumer Discretionary YUM! Brands YUMHotels Restaurants & Leisure (11)% $ 3019.3 x $ 0.81 $ 0.79 $ 0.03 (1)% (4)% Consumer Staples Sysco Corp. SYYFood & Staples Retailing (3)% $ 2017.7 x $ 0.40 $ 0.010% 0% Energy Anadarko Petroleum APCOil Gas & Consumable Fuels 3% $ 4117.0 x $ 0.80 $ 0.91 $ 0.15 (8)% 1% Financials The Hartford Financial Svc. Gp. HIGInsurance (7)% $ 159.5 x $ 0.88 $ 0.90 $ 0.03 (0)% 67% General Growth Properties GGPReal Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) (0) 1816.30.320.350.01 (0) 12 Principal Financial Group PFGInsurance (10) 1311.60.930.940.03114 Torchmark Corp. TMKInsurance (3) 712.51.471.460.01 (0) 9 Health Care CareFusion Corp. CFNHealth Care Equipment & Supplies 5% $ 917.0 x $ 0.55 $ 0.54 $ 0.00 (0)% (0)% Edwards Lifesciences EWHealth Care Equipment & Supplies (0) 721.20.830.820.020 (9) Industrials The Dun & Bradstreet DNBProfessional Services (10)% $ 413.5 x $ 2.79 $ 2.85 $ 0.060% 20% Tuesday, February 4,2014 Consumer Discretionary Delphi Automotive DLPHAuto Components 1% $ 1912.8 x $ 1.05 $ 1.04 $ 0.03 (0)% 16% Gannett Inc. GCIMedia (7) 68.00.650.020 (27) Michael Kors Holdings Ltd KORSTextiles Apparel & Luxury Goods (1) 1626.00.890.860.02 (0) 34 Consumer Staples Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. ADMFood Products (9)% $ 2612.1 x $ 0.83 $ 0.86 $ 0.06 (0)% 43% The Clorox Co. CLXHousehold Products (5) 1119.00.910.910.03 (0) (3) Energy Spectra Energy Corp SEOil Gas & Consumable Fuels 2% $ 2423.0 x $ 0.32 $ 0.38 $ 0.030% 18% Financials CMEGroup Inc. CMEDiversified Financial Services (5)% $ 2521.5 x $ 0.68 $ 0.67 $ 0.01 (0)% 6% McGraw Hill Financial MHFIDiversified Financial Services (2) 2120.80.760.790.0116 Aflac Inc. AFLInsurance (5) 2910.41.381.380.01 (1) (6) Ameriprise Financial AMPCapital Markets (7) 2113.91.831.800.05 (0) 5 Equity Residential EQRReal Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) 62018.30.770.700.060 (6) Genworth Financial GNWInsurance (4) 711.00.300.023 (13) Macerich Co. MACReal Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) (5) 815.80.940.920.02 (0) 3 Health Care Becton, Dickinson and Co. BDXHealth Care Equipment & Supplies (2)% $ 2117.4 x $ 1.33 $ 1.29 $ 0.030% (4)% Cerner Corp. CERNHealth Care Technology 11935.40.390.390.00014 Gilead Sciences GILDBiotechnology 912528.80.480.510.0411 Boston Scientific BSXHealth Care Equipment & Supplies 131826.30.130.130.01316 Industrials Emerson Electric EMRElectrical Equipment (5)% $ 4717.4 x $ 0.66 $ 0.67 $ 0.03 (1)% 9% Eaton Corp. ETNElectrical Equipment (3) 3515.71.041.060.02 (0) 29 Ryder System RRoad & Rail (3) 414.41.281.190.35 (2) 1 Xylem Inc. XYLMachinery (4) 618.20.520.01 (0) 10 C.H. Robinson Worldwide CHRWAir Freight & Logistics (0) 919.80.680.680.020 (0) Information Technology Fidelity National Info Svc. FISITServices (4)% $ 1516.9 x $ 0.78 $ 0.011% 15% Materials International Paper IPPaper & Forest Products (4)% $ 2111.8 x $ 0.86 $ 0.86 $ 0.05 (1)% 25% Utilities AGLResources GASGas Utilities 1% $ 616.0 x $ 0.84 $ 0.92 $ 0.030% 1% 2014年2月1日 美国 全球投资研究10 Exhibit 23 cont'd: Expected report dates for S&P 500 stocks reporting next week as of January 30,2014 Source: Compustat, FirstCall, Bloomberg, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. 4Q 2013 Consensus 4Q 2013 YTDMkt Cap P/EGoldman Standard YTDYear/Year Company name Ticker Industry Return ($ bil) (NTM) Sachs Consensus Deviation Revisions Growth Wednesday, February 5,2014 Consumer Discretionary Ralph Lauren Corp. RLTextiles Apparel & Luxury Goods (10)% $ 1417.3 x $ 2.51 $ 2.51 $ 0.04 (0)% 5% Time Warner TWXMedia (9) 5714.71.161.150.01 (0) (2) The Walt Disney DISMedia (4) 12918.50.880.910.03215 O'Reilly Automotive ORLYSpecialty Retail 31420.31.321.320.03 (0) 16 Consumer Staples Coca-Cola Enterprises CCEBeverages (1)% $ 1115.9 x $ 0.51 $ 0.52 $ 0.01 (0)% 16% The Estee Lauder Companies ELPersonal Products (8) 2723.11.061.060.03 (0) 4 Energy Marathon Oil Corp. MROOil Gas & Consumable Fuels (6)% $ 2311.0 x $ 0.75 $ 0.72 $ 0.07 (4)% 31% Tesoro Corp. TSOOil Gas & Consumable Fuels (12) 79.10.300.320.09 (42) (76) Financials The NASDAQOMXGroup NDAQDiversified Financial Services (3)% $ 612.8 x $ 0.66 $ 0.66 $ 0.011% 4% Assurant Inc. AIZInsurance (1) 511.01.421.420.07 (3) NM The Allstate Corp. ALLInsurance (4) 2410.31.261.370.141132 CBREGroup CBGReal Estate Management & Development 2915.90.660.02020 Cincinnati Financial CINFInsurance (6) 818.90.680.092 (39) Kimco Realty Corp. KIMReal Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) 6915.30.340.330.0001 Lincoln National LNCInsurance (7) 139.11.301.280.03116 Prudential Financial PRUInsurance (8) 399.32.202.230.10332 XLGroup XLInsurance (8) 810.00.780.830.084 NM Health Care Allergan Inc. AGNPharmaceuticals 4% $ 3421.7 x $ 1.36 $ 1.34 $ 0.01 (0)% 16% Humana Inc. HUMHealth Care Providers & Services (5) 1513.11.110.930.14 (0) (22) Merck & Co. MRKPharmaceuticals 715615.40.880.880.0306 Industrials Stericycle SRCLCommercial Services & Supplies 1% $ 1029.1 x $ 0.97 $ 0.96 $ 0.010% 10% Information Technology Automatic Data Processing ADPITServices (4)% $ 3724.0 x $ 0.77 $ 0.77 $ 0.010% 7% Cognizant Tech Solutions CTSHITServices (2) 3021.51.060.04016 Akamai Technologies AKAMInternet Software & Services 3923.80.360.520.0107 Fiserv Inc. FISVITServices (4) 1517.60.810.01 (0) (42) Materials FMCCorp. FMCChemicals (5)% $ 1016.1 x $ 1.00 $ 0.94 $ 0.02 (1)% 22% Thursday, February 6,2014 Consumer Discretionary Twenty-First Century Fox FOXAMedia (9)% $ 7320.1 x $ 0.35 $ 0.33 $ 0.02 (5)% (24)% General Motors GMAutomobiles (10) 519.30.770.880.07 (4) 82 Expedia Inc. EXPEInternet & Catalog Retail (6) 918.10.770.860.09237 News Corp. NWSAMedia (10) 937.50.210.04 (0) Consumer Staples Kellogg Co. KFood Products (5)% $ 2114.6 x $ 0.83 $ 0.82 $ 0.01 (1)% 26% Philip Morris Intl PMTobacco (9) 12714.31.361.370.03 (0) 10 Energy Noble Energy NBLOil Gas & Consumable Fuels (8)% $ 2319.6 x $ 1.03 $ 0.62 $ 0.14 (11)% Diamond Offshore Drilling DOEnergy Equipment & Services (14) 711.40.750.790.08 (0) (44) FMCTechnologies FTIEnergy Equipment & Services (4) 1218.80.730.650.03 (2) 14 Financials Apartment Investment and Mgmt AIVReal Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) 7% $ 412.9 x $ 0.56 $ 0.57 $ 0.01 (0)% 9% Health Care Aetna Inc. AETHealth Care Providers & Services 1% $ 2511.1 x $ 1.38 $ 1.39 $ 0.062% 48% Perrigo Co. PRGOPharmaceuticals 22122.01.601.59 NM 17 Industrials Cummins Inc. CMIMachinery (9)% $ 2414.6 x $ 2.10 $ 1.96 $ 0.10 (1)% (2)% Snap-on Inc. SNAMachinery (8) 616.11.53 (2) 7 Republic Services RSGCommercial Services & Supplies (3) 1216.50.450.470.01027 Information Technology Alliance Data Systems ADSITServices (5)% $ 1221.6 x $ 2.18 $ 2.34 $ 0.06 (0)% 27% Teradata Corp. TDCITServices (7) 713.90.700.850.03 (1) 7 VeriSign Inc. VRSNInternet Software & Services (1) 823.50.590.01 (1) (1) Materials Sealed Air Corp. SEEContainers & Packaging (8)% $ 621.0 x $ 0.32 $ 0.38 $ 0.021% 10% Vulcan Materials VMCConstruction Materials 48 NM (0.02) (0.03) 0.05092 Sigma-Aldrich Corp. SIALChemicals (0) 1121.91.001.010.01 (0) 5 Utilities Exelon Corp. EXCElectric Utilities 6% $ 2512.4 x $ 0.59 $ 0.53 $ 0.06 (3)% (18)% PPLCorp. PPLElectric Utilities 11912.60.610.500.04 (3) 1 Wisconsin Energy WECMulti-Utilities 21015.90.520.600.03339 2014年2月1日 美国 全球投资研究11 Exhibit 23 cont'd: Expected report dates for S&P 500 stocks reporting next week as of January 30,2014 Source: Compustat, FirstCall, Bloomberg, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Equity Basket Disclosure The Securities Division of the firm may have been consulted as to the various components of the baskets of securities discussed in this report prior to their launch; however, none of this research, the conclusions expressed herein, nor the timing of this report was shared with the Securities Division. 4Q 2013 Consensus 4Q 2013 YTDMkt Cap P/EGoldman Standard YTDYear/Year Company name Ticker Industry Return ($ bil) (NTM) Sachs Consensus Deviation Revisions Growth Friday, February 7,2014 Consumer Discretionary Wyndham Worldwide WYNHotels Restaurants & Leisure (3)% $ 917.3 x $ 0.73 $ 0.74 $ 0.022% 18% Consumer Staples Beam Inc. BEAMBeverages 23% $ 1430.5 x $ 0.73 $ 0.72 $ 0.01 (0)% 8% Financials Moody's Corp. MCODiversified Financial Services (4)% $ 1620.2 x $ 0.74 $ 0.77 $ 0.020% 3% Health Care Cigna Corp. CIHealth Care Providers & Services 0% $ 2412.5 x $ 1.57 $ 1.48 $ 0.050% (6)% Laboratory Corp. of America LHHealth Care Providers & Services (3) 812.91.701.660.05 (0) 2 Information Technology FLIRSystems FLIRElectronic Eq Instruments & Components 9% $ 522.2 x $ 0.24 $ 0.28 $ 0.10 (2)% (46)% 2014年2月1日 美国 全球投资研究12 信息披露附录 分析师申明 我们,Amanda Sneider, CFA、高思庭、Stuart Kaiser, CFA、Ben Snider、Rima Reddy、Aaron Woodside,在此申明,本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映 了我们对上述公司或其证券的个人看法。

此外,我们的薪金的任何部分不曾与,不与,也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关。

高盛信息披露 评级分布/投资银行关系 高盛投资研究部的全球研究覆盖范围 评级分布投资银行关系 买入持有卖出买入持有卖出 全球32% 54% 14% 53% 45% 36% 截至2014年1月1日,高盛全球投资研究部对3,637种股票评定了投资评级。

高盛给予股票在各种地区投资名单中的买入和卖出评级;未给予这些评级的股 票被视为中性评级,根据纳斯达克/纽约证券交易所的披露要求,这些评级分别对应买入,持有及卖出。

详情见以下“公司评级,研究行业及评级和相关定义”部 分。

美国法定披露 任何本报告中研究企业所需的特定公司法定披露见上文:包括即将进行交易的承销商或副承销商,1%或其他股权,特定服务的补偿,客户关系种类,之前担任 承销商或副承销商的公开发行,担任董事,担任股票做市及/或专家的角色。

高盛通常担任本报告中涉及的固定收益证券的做市商,并常作为这些证券的交易 对手。

以下为额外要求的披露:股权及重大利益冲突:高盛的政策为禁止其分析师、分析师属下专业人员及其家庭成员持有分析师负责研究的任何公司的证券。

分析师 薪酬:分析师薪酬部分取决于高盛的盈利,其中包括投资银行的收入。

分析师担任高级职员或董事:高盛的政策为禁止其分析师、分析师属下人员及其家庭成员担 任分析师负责研究的任何公司的高级职员、董事、顾问委员会成员或雇员。

非美国分析师:非美国分析师可能与高盛无关联,因此可以不受纳斯达克2711条/纽 约证券交易所472条对于与所研究公司的交流、公开露面及持有交易证券的限制。

美国以外司法管辖区规定的额外披露 以下为除了根据美国法律法规规定作出的上述信息披露之外其他司法管辖区法律所要求的披露。

澳大利亚: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd及其相关机构不是 澳大利亚经授权的存款机构(1959年《银行法》所定义),因此不在澳大利亚境内提供银行服务,也不经营银行业务。

本研究报告或本报告的其他形式内容只 可分发予根据澳大利亚公司法定义的"批发客户",在事先获得高盛许可的情况下可以有例外。

巴西:与CVMInstruction 483相关的信息披露请参阅 。

根据CVMInstruction 483第16条,在适用的情况下,对本研究报告内容负主要责任的巴西注册分析师 为本报告开头部分标明的第一作者,除非报告末另有说明。

加拿大:如果本报告与加拿大股票发行人有关,高盛集团已批准本报告,并同意承担有关责任。

分析 师可进行实地考察,但不可收受公司对此等差旅支付的任何款项或偿付。

香港:可从高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司获取有关本报告中所研究公司的证券的额外资 料。

印度:有关本研究报告中的研究对象或所提及的公司的进一步信息可能来自高盛(印度)证券私人有限公司。

日本:见下文。

韩国:可从高盛(亚洲)有限 责任公司首尔分公司获取有关本报告所研究公司的证券的额外资料。

新西兰: Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited及其关联机构并非1989年新西兰储备银行 法定义的“注册银行”或“存款机构”。

本研究报告以及本报告的其他形式内容只可分发给2008年财务顾问法案定义的"批发客户",在事先获得高盛许可的情况下 可以有例外。

俄罗斯:在俄罗斯联邦分发的研究报告并非俄罗斯法律所定义的广告,而是不以产品推广为主要目的的信息和分析,也不属于俄罗斯法律所界定的 评估行为。

新加坡:可从高盛(新加坡)私人公司(公司编号:198602165W)获取有关本报告中所研究公司的证券的额外资料。

台湾:本信息仅供参考,未经 允许不得翻印。

投资者应当谨慎考虑他们自身的投资风险,投资结果由投资者自行负责。

英国:在英国根据金融市场行为监管局的定义可被分类为私人客户的 人士参阅本报告的同时应当参阅高盛以往对本报告研究企业的研究报告,并应当参考高盛国际已经发给这些客户的风险警告资料。

该风险警告资料复本,以及 本报告中采用部分金融辞汇的解释可向高盛国际索取。

欧盟:与欧盟指令2003/126/EC第四章(1)(d)和第六章(2)有关的披露信息可参见,其中列明了欧洲在管理投 资研究方面利益冲突的政策。

日本:高盛证券株式会社是依据《金融工具与交易法》、在关东财务局注册(注册号:No.69)的金融工具交易商,同时也是日本证券业协会和日本金融期货业 协会的成员。

股票买卖需要缴纳与客户事先约定的佣金及消费税。

关于日本证券交易所、日本证券交易商协会或日本证券金融公司所要求的适用的信息披露, 请参见与公司有关的法定披露部分。

公司评级、研究行业及评级和相关定义 买入、中性、卖出:分析师建议将评为买入或卖出的股票纳入地区投资名单。

一只股票在投资名单中评为买入或卖出由其相对于所属研究行业的潜在回报决定。

任何未获得买入或卖出评级的股票均被视为中性评级。

每个地区投资评估委员会根据25-35%的股票评级为买入、10-15%的股票评级为卖出的全球指导原则来 管理该地区的投资名单;但是,在某一特定行业买入和卖出评级的分布可能根据地区投资评估委员会的决定而有所不同。

地区强力买入或卖出名单是以潜在回 报规模或实现回报的可能性为主要依据的投资建议。

潜在回报:代表当前股价与一定时间范围内预测目标价格之差。

分析师被要求对研究范围内的所有股票给出目标价格。

潜在回报、目标价格及相关时间范围在 每份加入投资名单或重申维持在投资名单的研究报告中都有注明。

研究行业及评级:每个行业研究的所有股票名单可登陆通过主要分析师、股票和行业进行查询。

分析师给出下列评级中 的其中一项代表其根据行业历史基本面及/或估值对研究对象的投资前景的看法。

具吸引力(A):未来12个月内投资前景优于研究范围的历史基本面及/或估 值。

中性(N):未来12个月内投资前景相对研究范围的历史基本面及/或估值持平。

谨慎(C):未来12个月内投资前景劣于研究范围的历史基本面及/或估值。

暂无评级(NR):在高盛于涉及该公司的一项合并交易或战略性交易中担任咨询顾问时并在某些其他情况下,投资评级和目标价格已经根据高盛的政策予以除去。

暂停评级(RS):由于缺乏足够的基础去确定投资评级或价格目标,或在发表报告方面存在法律、监管或政策的限制,我们已经暂停对这种股票给予投资评级和价 2014年2月1日 美国 全球投资研究13 格目标。

此前对这种股票作出的投资评级和价格目标(如有的话)将不再有效,因此投资者不应依赖该等资料。

暂停研究(CS):我们已经暂停对该公司的研究。

没有研究(NC):我们没有对该公司进行研究。

不存在或不适用(NA):此资料不存在或不适用。

无意义(NM):此资料无意义,因此不包括在报告内。

全球产品;分发机构 高盛全球投资研究部在全球范围内为高盛的客户制作并分发研究产品。

高盛分布在其全球各办事处的分析师提供行业和公司的股票研究,以及宏观经济、货 币、商品及投资组合策略的研究。

本研究报告在澳大利亚由Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd(ABN 21006797897)分发;在巴西由Goldman Sachs do Brasil Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários S.A.分发;股票及其他研究在加拿大由高盛集团分发;在香港由高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司分发;在印度由高 盛(印度)证券私人有限公司分发;在日本由高盛证券株式会社分发;在韩国由高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司首尔分公司分发;在新西兰由Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited分发;在俄罗斯由高盛OOO分发;在新加坡由高盛(新加坡)私人公司(公司号:198602165W)分发;在美国由高盛集团分发。

高盛国际 已批准本研究报告在英国和欧盟分发。

欧盟:高盛国际(由审慎监管局授权并接受金融市场行为监管局和审慎监管局的监管)已批准本研究报告在英国和欧盟分发;Goldman Sachs AG和Goldman Sachs International Zweigniederlassung Frankfurt(由联邦金融监管局监管)可能也会在德国分发。

一般性披露 本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用。

除了与高盛相关的披露,本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息,但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性,客 户也不应该依赖该信息是准确和完整的。

我们会适时地更新我们的研究,但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做。

除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外,绝大多数报 告是在分析师认为适当的时候不定期地出版。

高盛是一家集投资银行、投资管理和证券经纪业务于一身的全球性综合服务公司。

高盛全球投资研究部所研究的大部分公司与我们保持着投资银行业务和其它 业务关系。

美国证券经纪交易商高盛是SIPC的成员(。

我们的销售人员、交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略。

我 们的资产管理部门、自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策。

本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高盛销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论,或在本报告中讨论交易策略,其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券市场 价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件,该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反。

任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基本评 级,此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力。

我们以及我们的关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员,不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师,将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸, 担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手,或买卖上述证券或衍生工具。

在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的司法管辖区内,本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约。

本报告不构成个人投资建议,也没有考 虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需求。

客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,以及(若有必要)寻求专家的意见,包括税务意 见。

本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动。

过去的表现并不代表未来的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本 金。

外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响。

某些交易,包括牵涉期货、期权和其它衍生工具的交易,有很大的风险,因此并不适合所有投资者。

投资者可以向高盛销售代表取得或通过 取得当前的期权披露文件。

对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品,例如,期权差价结构产 品,其交易成本可能较高。

与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供。

在撰写研究报告期间,Goldman Sachs Australia全球投资研究部的职员可能参与本研究报告中所讨论证券的发行人组织的现场调研或会议。

在某些情况下,如 果视具体情形Goldman Sachs Australia认为恰当或合理,此类调研或会议的成本可能部分或全部由该证券发行人承担。

所有研究报告均以电子出版物的形式刊登在我们的内部客户网上并向所有客户同步提供。

并非所有研究内容都转发给我们的客户或者向第三方整合者提供,高 盛也并不对由第三方整合者转发的我们研究报告承担任何责任。

有关某只证券的所有研究报告或数据,请联络您的销售代表或登陆。

披露信息可以查阅或向研究合规部索取,地址是200 West Street,New York,NY 10282。

高盛版权所有 2014年 未经高盛集团公司事先书面同意,本材料的任何部分均不得(i)以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品,或(ii)再次分发。

高华证券信息披露 一般披露 本报告在中国由高华证券分发。

高华证券具备证券投资咨询业务资格。

本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用。

本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息,但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性,客户也不应该依赖该信息是 准确和完整的。

我们会适时地更新我们的研究,但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做。

除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外,绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的 时候不定期地出版。

高盛高华为高华证券的关联机构,从事投资银行业务。

高华证券、高盛高华及它们的关联机构与本报告中涉及的大部分公司保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关系。

我们的销售人员、交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略。

我 们的自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策。

本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高华证券销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论,或在本报告中讨论交易策略,其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券 市场价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件,该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反。

任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基 本评级,此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力。

高华证券及其关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员,不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师,将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸,担 任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手,或买卖上述证券或衍生工具。

在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的地区,本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约。

本报告不构成个人投资建议,也没有考虑到个别 客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需求。

客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,以及(若有必要)寻求专家的意见,包括税务意见。

本报告 中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动。

过去的表现并不代表未来的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金。

外汇汇率 波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响。

2014年2月1日 美国 全球投资研究14 某些交易,包括牵涉期货、期权和其它衍生工具的交易,有很大的风险,因此并不适合所有投资者。

投资者可以向高华销售代表取得或通过 取得当前的期权披露文件。

对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品,例如,期权差价结构产 品,其交易成本可能较高。

与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供。

北京高华证券有限责任公司版权所有 2014年 未经北京高华证券有限责任公司事先书面同意,本材料的任何部分均不得(i)以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品,或(ii)再次分发。

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