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中海油服研究报告:辉立证券-中海油服-2883.HK-鑽井業務強力驅動業績增長-140207

研报作者:陳耕 来自:辉立证券 时间:2014-02-07 15:01:06
  • 股票名称
    中海油服
  • 股票代码
    2883.HK
  • 研报类型
    (PDF)
  • 发布者
    g****q
  • 研报出处
    辉立证券
  • 研报页数
    5 页
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  • 研报大小
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研究报告内容

140207-TC-SH-COR-COSL 中海油田服務中海油田服務中海油田服務中海油田服務((((2883.HK)))) 鑽井業務強力驅動業績增長鑽井業務強力驅動業績增長鑽井業務強力驅動業績增長鑽井業務強力驅動業績增長 Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Bloomberg ││││ Reuters ││││ POEMS 2883.HK ││││2883.HK ││││2883.HK 行業行業行業行業::::油氣服務油氣服務油氣服務油氣服務 Phillip Securities Research 07 Feb,2014 年報分析年報分析年報分析年報分析 評級:買入 收市價:20.50 目標價:27.00 投資概述投資概述投資概述投資概述 中海油服的Q3單季收入和淨利潤分別為76.0和21.8億 元,分別同比增25%和53%,環比增9%和11%。

前三季度公 司收入和歸屬上市公司股東淨利203.1和53.6億元,分別同增 24%和40%,EPS1.19元。

業績持續超出市場預期,原因有三:一、作業新裝備數量 提升。

上半年,COSLPromoter、NH7和勘探2號等新裝備 投入市場,及COSLInnovator、NH2開始正常作業令公司鑽 井天數同比增長16%;二、工作量飽滿及效率提高。

中海油及 海外工作量飽滿,加之公司鑽井平臺工作效率提高令鑽井船、 服務船舶設備日曆天使用率提升2.8個PCT和3.0個PCT; 三、鑽井平臺的日使用費率上升。

鑽井業務的業績增長依賴於存量裝備的使用率上升、新增鑽 井平臺數量以及鑽井平臺的平均日收入,而國內外市場需求則 是主要驅動因素。

近年,隨著海上油氣勘探回暖,中海油服憑 藉“買、租、建”的策略快速擴充裝備規模,業績增長強勁,市場 份額顯著上升。

未來用於深水鑽探的半潛式鑽井平臺仍將是公 司鑽井業務的重要看點。

海外業務成為中海油服增長的重要驅動力。

公司在海外市 場已經形成四大中心:以挪威為中心的北海市場、以墨西哥為 中心的墨西哥灣市場,以阿聯酋、伊拉克為主的中東市場,以 印尼為中心的東南亞市場。

公司的海外業務顯示出較強的內生 性增長力。

過去幾年中海油服的海外業務增長迅猛,收入比重穩步提 升。

2011年公司海外業務收入增速為20%,收入占比27%, 而2013年中期這兩個數值分別達到40%和37%。

海外業務已 經成為公司業績增長的重要支撐。

目前在日費率和使用率較高的情況下,增量鑽井平臺的盈 利貢獻對於業績增長至關重要。

2014年中海油服的增量鑽井平 臺主要包括兩座自升式鑽井平臺和兩座半潛式鑽井平臺。

兩座 已到位的自升式鑽井平臺將基本能夠實現全年服役,而兩座半 潛式鑽井平臺的則分別為三個季度和半年,預計四座平臺在 2014年貢獻的利潤達人民幣6.5億,這將構成公司在2014年 利潤增長的主體。

此外,油田服務板塊的增長能見度較高,將 是增長的另一重要驅動來源。

研究員 陳耕 chengeng@phillip.com.cn +862163512937-107 COSL Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 07 Feb,2014 受益於中海油資本增長明確、南海油氣開發提速以及全 球油氣行業景氣度維持高位這幾個基本面利好因素,中海油 服的業績增長基礎牢固,公司的新平臺不斷投產,未來業績 有繼續超預期的可能。

中海油服是投資者分享全球以及中國 油氣勘探行業快速增長的優質標的,也是港股油服行業的最 佳選擇。

我們給予中海油服“買入”評級,12個月目標價為27 港元,相當於12.2倍的2014年預期市盈率。

三季報業績超預期三季報業績超預期三季報業績超預期三季報業績超預期 中海油服的Q3單季收入和淨利潤分別為76.0和21.8 億元,分別同比增25%和53%,環比增9%和11%。

前三季 度公司收入和歸屬上市公司股東淨利203.1和53.6億元, 分別同增24%和40%,EPS1.19元。

業績持續超出市場預期,原因有三:一、作業新裝備數 量提升。

上半年,COSLPromoter、NH7和勘探2號等新 裝備投入市場,及COSLInnovator、NH2開始正常作業令 公司鑽井天數同比增長16%;二、工作量飽滿及效率提高。

中海油及海外工作量飽滿,加之公司鑽井平臺工作效率提高 令鑽井船、服務船舶設備日曆天使用率提升2.8個PCT和 3.0個PCT;三、鑽井平臺的日使用費率上升。

鑽井業務是盈利最大的業務板塊鑽井業務是盈利最大的業務板塊鑽井業務是盈利最大的業務板塊鑽井業務是盈利最大的業務板塊 2013年上半年中海油服的56%的收入和75%的營業利 潤均來自鑽井業務。

公司的鑽井板塊實力雄厚,核心資產包 括40座鑽井平臺(30座自升式+10座半潛式),2座生活平 臺,4套模組鑽機,8套陸地鑽機。

鑽井業務的業績增長依賴於存量裝備的使用率上升、新 增鑽井平臺數量以及鑽井平臺的平均日收入,而國內外市場 需求則是主要驅動因素。

近年,隨著海上油氣勘探回暖,中 海油服憑藉“買、租、建”的策略快速擴充裝備規模,業績增 長強勁,市場份額顯著上升。

未來用於深水鑽探的半潛式鑽 井平臺仍將是公司鑽井業務的重要看點。

國內外市場的需求快速增長驅動業績增長國內外市場的需求快速增長驅動業績增長國內外市場的需求快速增長驅動業績增長國內外市場的需求快速增長驅動業績增長 海外業務成為中海油服增長的重要驅動力。

公司在海外 市場已經形成四大中心:以挪威為中心的北海市場、以墨西 哥為中心的墨西哥灣市場,以阿聯酋、伊拉克為主的中東市 場,以印尼為中心的東南亞市場。

公司的海外業務顯示出較 強的內生性增長力。

過去幾年中海油服的海外業務增長迅猛,收入比重穩步 提升。

2011年公司海外業務收入增速為20%,收入占比 27%,而2013年中期這兩個數值分別達到40%和37%。

海 外業務已經成為公司業績增長的重要支撐。

圖,墨西哥灣鑽探回暖 來源,彭博商業週刊 此外,中海油服的主要的海外業務中心—墨西哥灣已經從 2010年BP漏油事件得以恢復,其海上石油氣鑽探活動顯著 回暖。

如上圖,墨西哥灣的鑽井平臺數量以及半潛式鑽井平 臺的數量基本已恢復到BP漏油事件前的水準,預計復蘇後 的墨西哥灣的油氣鑽探活動將較全球其他地區更為活躍。

我 們認為,中海油服有望在墨西哥灣獲得更多的作業合同和費 率上漲,更多的設備投放尤其是半潛式平臺將為中海油服在 海外的利潤增長提供支撐。

2014年業績增長分析年業績增長分析年業績增長分析年業績增長分析 目前在日費率和使用率較高的情況下,增量鑽井平臺的盈 利貢獻對於業績增長至關重要。

2014年中海油服的增量鑽井 平臺主要包括兩座自升式鑽井平臺和兩座半潛式鑽井平臺。

兩座已到位的自升式鑽井平臺將基本能夠實現全年服役,而 兩座半潛式鑽井平臺的則分別為三個季度和半年,預計四座 平臺在2014年貢獻的利潤達人民幣6.5億,這將構成公司 在2014年利潤增長的主體。

此外,油田服務板塊的增長能 見度較高,將是增長的另一重要驅動來源。

風風風風險險險險 租賃和分包費用增加,可能導致利潤率下滑; 油田服務作業風險; 市場費率變化風險; 氣候因素、政治因素等。

估值估值估值估值 受益於中海油資本增長明確、南海油氣開發提速以及全 球油氣行業景氣度維持高位這幾個基本面利好因素,中海油 服的業績增長基礎牢固,公司的新平臺不斷投產,未來業績 有繼續超預期的可能。

中海油服是投資者分享全球以及中國 油氣勘探行業快速增長的優質標的,也是港股油服行業的最 佳選擇。

我們給予中海油服“買入”評級,12個月目標價為27 港元,相當於12.2倍的2014年預期市盈率。

COSL Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 07 Feb,2014 COSL Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 07 Feb,2014 PHILLIPRESEARCHSTOCKSELECTIONSYSTEMS We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERALDISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd (“Phillip Securities”). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. 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In no event will Phillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. 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Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in this publication involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks. Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such security. Disclosure of Interest Analyst Disclosure: Neither the analyst(s) preparing this report nor his associate has any financial interest in or serves as an officer of the listed corporation covered in this report. Firm’s Disclosure: Phillip Securities does not have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation covered in this report nor any financial interest of 1% or more of the market capitalization in the listed corporation. In addition, no executive staff of Phillip Securities serves as an officer of the listed corporation. Availability The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction. Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited (“PSHK”) believed to be accurate. PSHK does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. PSHK (or its affiliates or employees) may have positions in relevant investment products. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on . 2014 Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4 -5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price COSL Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 07 Feb,2014 Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore 179101 Tel : (65) 65336001 Fax : (65) 65356631 Website: .sg MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block BLevel 3 Megan Avenue II, No.12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng,50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel (603) 21628841 Fax (603) 21665099 Website: .my HONGKONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/FUnited Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) 22776600 Fax (852) 28685307 Websites: JAPAN PhillipCapital Japan K.K. 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