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有色金属行业研究报告:申银万国-有色金属行业点评:金色反弹-140130

研报作者:Rong Ye 来自:申银万国 时间:2014-02-07 14:33:32
  • 股票名称
    有色金属行业
  • 股票代码
  • 研报类型
    (PDF)
  • 发布者
    car****moo
  • 研报出处
    申银万国
  • 研报页数
    10 页
  • 推荐评级
    中性
  • 研报大小
    671 KB
研究报告内容

kuxsmi:3352kuxe IndustryResearch SWSResearchCo.Ltd 99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai | +862123297818 Bringing China to the World 30January2014 Neutral Unchanged 金色反弹 有色金属行业点评 Analyst RongYe A0230512110001 AYZ033 Contact DimiDu (8621)23297818×7203 duweii@swsresearch.com RelatedReports ‘Weakstockincyclicalrebound, disconnectedfromcopperprice correction’Sep18,2013 "JiangxiCopper-1Hresultbelow expectation,maintain underperform"Aug29,2013 The company does not hold any equities or derivatives of the listed company mentioned in this report (“target”), but then we shall provide financial advisory services subject to the relevant laws and regulations. Any affiliates of the company may hold equities of the target, which may exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investment banking services to the target. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact compliance@swsresearch.com for relevant disclosure materials or log into under disclosure column for further information. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure and disclaimer upon the last 投资要点: 上周,全球股市经历大幅回调。

周五,美股S&P500下跌2%,创下七月 最大跌幅。

新兴市场股票也同样大幅回调。

VIX指数上周上涨46%,周五 单日上涨30%以上,显示近期风险资产遭受抛压,市场恐慌情绪上升。

我 们看到短期内金价持续反弹,上周五金价反弹至1270美元/盎司,在QE 推出预期开始兑现的情况下,正如我们判断,短期金价下跌催化剂有限。

我们认为金价短期将继续保持反弹趋势。

世界金属统计局上周发出最新统计报告,13年1-11月全球铜市场供应过 剩37.5万吨,基本符合预期,随着铜供应的继续快速增加以及需求的相对 疲弱,我们认为供给过剩将加剧。

1-11月世界铜需求量为1923万吨,同 比增长4.3%,精炼铜13年1-11月增长6.4%至1966万吨。

供应的增 速大于需求增速。

中国精炼铜增速加快。

统计局最新数据,13年全年中国精炼铜为685万 吨,同比上升13.15%。

2012年的同比增幅为7.9%。

增幅明显加大。

随 着14年更多项目的投产,我们预计全球市场范围内供应增速会继续加快, 给铜价带来下行压力。

我们维持中期对黄金价格中性的判断,短期反弹可能持续。

个股来看,招 金矿业(1818.HK)在我们1月初上调评级至增持后股价表现稳定,小 幅跑赢大盘,我们认为公司股价反应过多的金价下跌的悲观因素,PB估值 处于低位,下行空间有限。

如果金价持续反弹,将会有上行修复估值机会。

我们继续保持对铜价的悲观看法,我们建议投资者卖出江西铜业(358:HK). kuxsmi:3352kuxe IndustryResearch SWSResearchCo.Ltd 99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai | +862123297818 Bringing China to the World page. InvestmentHighlights: Stock market performance backs gold price. Last week, the global stock market experienced large corrections. On 24 January, S&P 500 fell 2% (the largest single day correction over past seven months). Emerging market stocks also followed suit. Volatility Index (VIX) rose 46% and the price of gold rebounded to US$1270/oz. The short-term price of gold was supported by poor stock market performance and rising hedging demand. Coppered out. Last week, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) released its latest data. In January to November 2013, the copper market (in line with our expectations) had an oversupply of 375k tonnes. While this trend of copper oversupply continues, global consumption for January to November 2013 stood at 19.23mt (4.3% YoY). During the same period, refined copper production rose 6.4% to 19.66mt. The growth rate for supply was therefore higher than the demand. Global prospects. China has contributed to the increased supply. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), refined production in 2013 rose 13.15% to 6.85mt. The growth rate from 2011-12 was 7.9%. Therefore, we see that the growth rate is accelerating. We expect oversupply conditions to worsen and, with increased new global projects starting operations in 2014 we expect the growth rate on the supply side will continue to increase. Gold rebound continues. We remain neutral on the price of gold and expect the short-term rebound to continue. Since we upgraded Zhaojin Mining (1818:HK) from underperform to outperform in early January, the stock price has remained stable. Based on the company’s historical low PB and recent positive gold price trend, we expect upside potential in the company’s future. Recently, we believe Zhaojin will act as a hedge tool to the market. Given the selloff of risky assets, we remain bearish on copper. We still suggest investors to short Jiangxi Copper (358:HK). PE(x) PB(x) Company Code Rating Targetprice(HK$) +/-(%) 13E 14E 15E 13E 14E 15E JiangxiCopper 358:HK U-PF 11.15 -20.0% 12.1 15.1 17.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 ZhaojinMining 1818:HKO-PF 5.5 20% 14.7 14.5 14.71.31.31.3 ZijinMining 2899:HKU-PF 1.5 -12% 10.5 9.7 9.71.0 0.9 0.8 kuxsmi:3352kuxe October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan30,2014 Materials|CompanyResearch Figure2:10-yearbondyieldisnegativelycorrelatedwithgoldprice Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page1 Ja n- Ap r- Ju l-1 O ct -1 Ja n- Ap r- Ju l-1 O ct -1 Ja n- Ap r- Ju l-1 O ct -1 Ja n- Ap r- Ju l-1 O ct -1 Ja n- SPDRHoldings(tonnes) GoldPrice(USD/oz) Source: SWS Research Figure 3: In 2013, the Chinarefinedcopperproduction grew atahigh Figure1:10-yearbondyieldisnegativelycorrelatedwithgoldprice US10YBondYield(%) GoldPrice(USD/oz) Source: SWS Research kuxsmi:3352kuxe October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page2 Jan30,2014 Materials|CompanyResearch rate 2013-012013-022013-032013-042013-052013-062013-072013-082013-092013-102013-112013-12 RefinedProduction(000't) YoYGrowth Source: SWS Research Figure4:Globalrefinedcoppermarketentersinoversupplyin2013andbalancewill increasein2014 Globalrefinedcoppersupplyanddemand 2008 2009 2010 201120122013E 2014E Globalrefinedproduction 18,239 18,272 19,003 19,64920,12920,91222,061 YoY 1.70% 0.18% 4.00% 3.40% 2.44% 3.89% 5.49% Globaldemand 18,053 18,070 19,346 19,86520,55020,52521,429 YoY -0.74% 0.09% 7.06% 2.68% 3.45% -0.12% 4.40% Balance 186 202 (343) (216) (421) 387 632 Source: SWS Research kuxsmi:3352kuxe October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan30,2014 Materials|CompanyResearch Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page3 Appendix ZhaojinMining(1818:HK) Consolidated Income Statement million yuan 20112012 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 5,7417,6036,500 6,2887,036 Cost of Sales (2,677) (3,908) (3,785) (3,827) (4,326) Gross Profit 3,0643,6952,714 2,4612,711 Other Income (9) 40 (240) (200) (100) Selling/General/Admi. Expenses (670) (851) (1,072) (1,038) (1,126) EBITDA 2,8743,2432,129 1,9942,219 EBIT 2,3932,8441,642 1,4231,585 Finance Costs (98) (219) (315) (340) (350) Profit before tax 2,2462,8831,402 1,2231,485 Income tax expense (564) (618) (309) (260) (341) Minority interests 61123 62 51 58 Profit for the year 1,6621,924716 572 736 Consolidated Cash Flow Statement million yuan 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Profit before taxation 2,2872,6651,087 883 1,135 Plus:Depr. and amortisation 480400 487 570 634 Finance cost 98250 320 115 64 Losses from investments 440 0 0 0 Change in working capital (340) (133) (7) 1 (159) Others (4) 15 (17) (1) (2) CF from operating activities 2,0792,5791,561 1,3091,332 CAPEX (1,898) (600) (600) (600) 0 Other CF from investing activities (371) 5 5 10 8 CF from investing activities (2,270) (595) (594) (590) 8 Equity financing 00 0 0 0 Net change in liabilities 1,224 (1,010) 0 0 (500) Dividend and interest paid (582) (748) (897) (330) (236) Other CF from financing activities 120 0 0 0 CF from financing activities 654 (1,759) (897) (330) (736) Net cash flow 463225 70 389 604 FCFF 711,8931,213 1,1351,720 FCFE 1,197633 893 1,0201,156 Source:SYWGResearch & Consulting Company Consolidated Balance Sheet million yuan 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Current Assets 3,9704,3803,790 4,2075,143 Bank balances and cash 1,2461,3511,540 1,9292,533 Trade and other receivables 567986 591 601 707 Inventories 2,1392,0111,651 1,6691,886 Other current assets 1832 9 9 16 Long-term investment 6778 72 72 75 kuxsmi:3352kuxe October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan30,2014 Materials|CompanyResearch Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page4 PP&E 4,9267,3735,531 5,1064,618 Intangible and other assets 4,3366,1373,448 3,1212,982 Total Assets 13,29817,968 12,841 12,50512,818 Current Liabilities 3,9184,9542,358 2,3852,119 Borrowings 1,5103,168500 500 0 Trade and other payables 1,9411,4221,337 1,3661,531 Other current liabilities 467365 521 519 588 Long-term liabilities 2,3754,2161,657 834 732 Total Liabilities 6,2939,1704,014 3,2192,851 Minority Interests 414844 785 887 1,003 Shareholder Equity 6,5927,9548,042 8,3998,964 Share Capital 2,9152,9662,915 2,9152,915 Reserves 1,2161,2161,216 1,2161,216 Equity attributable 2,4603,7723,910 4,2684,833 Total Liabilities and equity 13,29817,968 12,841 12,50512,818 ZijinMining(2899.HK) Consolidated Income Statement million yuan 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 39,76448,41544,90746,46042,982 Cost of Sales 27,53736,37535,27437,28233,934 Gross Profit 12,22712,0409,6349,1789,048 Other Income (30) 332 (500) 100100 Selling/General/Admi. Expenses 2,4253,0123,3232,8342,837 EBITDA 11,40610,8388,8108,7558,884 EBIT 9,8039,0286,7606,3446,211 Finance Costs 4968041,0181,0621,109 Profit before tax 9,8039,0286,7606,3446,211 Income tax expense 2,3652,4031,4581,3411,296 Minority interests 1,198942855787760 Profit for the year 6,9116,1533,3344,0403,906 Consolidated Cash Flow Statement million yuan 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Profit before taxation 9,2768,5566,4086,0376,146 Plus:Depr. and amortisation 1,6041,8162,0652,4352,704 Finance cost 4968041,0181,0621,109 Losses from investments 30000 Change in working capital 667 (1,453) (238) 90230 Others 3,0484,739 (487) (1,088) 109 CF from operating activities 2,92014,4628,7668,53710,297 CAPEX 5,9655,8636,9727,0566,902 Other CF from investing activities 5913,566 (3,735) (134) 275 CF from investing activities (2,307) (2,297) (10,707) (7,190) (6,627) Equity financing 00000 Net change in liabilities 1,5232,585320336353 Dividend and interest paid (1,927) (2,286) (2,503) (2,548) (2,594) Other CF from financing activities 172455 (503) 00 CF from financing activities 445754 (2,687) (2,212) (2,241) kuxsmi:3352kuxe October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan30,2014 Materials|CompanyResearch Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page5 Net cash flow 1,79712,919 (4,628) (865) 1,430 FCFF 15,67312,85114,52315,07215,455 FCFE 16,69914,63213,82514,34614,699 Consolidated Balance Sheet million yuan 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Current Assets 17,93224,33425,26925,88027,512 Bank balances and cash 6,1807,47314,47213,60715,036 Trade and other receivables 2,0512,9423,8653,8433,583 Inventories 7,16011,6027,0017,2556,600 Other current assets 2,5402,316 (3,647) (2,902) (3,367) Long-term investment 4,1425764,3114,4444,169 PP&E 18,37824,12726,91531,04634,446 Intangible and other assets 10,6139,03311,09311,36011,646 Total Assets 52,32070,07571,02776,23381,344 Current Liabilities 16,36522,97920,08220,92420,797 Borrowings 3,8156,4006,7207,0567,409 Trade and other payables 5,6054,8637,5007,8217,136 Other current liabilities 5,23510,0244,0004,0004,000 Long-term liabilities 5,59610,34610,17510,52410,891 Total Liabilities 22,18836,49330,74831,99032,283 Minority Interests 5,1245,4017,0067,8918,791 Shareholder Equity 30,13333,58340,27844,24349,061 Share Capital 2,1812,1812,1812,1812,181 Reserves 8,8238,9669,0429,0429,042 Equity attributable 14,00417,03422,05525,13028,286 Total Liabilities and equity 52,32070,07571,02776,23381,344 JiangxiCopper(358.HK) Consolidated Income Statement million yuan 20112012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 117,641158,556105,01098,141 94,983 Copper cathode 39,59267,07062,13057,770 53,410 Copper processing 25,42332,77734,63733,276 30,765 Precious metals 7,10410,65111,8459,164 9,167 Chemical 1,4762,3051,471965 965 Others 2,5453,8383,8353,835 3,835 Cost of Sales 106,981150,60998,61892,166 89,500 Copper cathode 36,85863,13959,52355,939 52,269 Copper processing 23,11830,09932,21231,213 28,857 Precious metals 5,6258,3469,3337,660 7,234 Chemical 8521,302844844 844 Others 1,7083,3082,9622,962 2,962 Gross Profit 10,6607,9476,3925,975 5,484 Other Income (709) 27600 0 Distribution expenses 437453477436 397 Adminstrative expenses 1,8441,2911,9851,772 1,648 EBITDA 9,5687,3125,2005,204 5,039 EBIT 8,3796,2033,9303,766 3,438 Finance Costs (1) 204261301 514 Profit before tax 8,3796,2033,9303,766 3,438 Income tax expense 1,060980464866 731 kuxsmi:3352kuxe October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan30,2014 Materials|CompanyResearch Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page6 Minority interests 61793024 20 Profit for the year 6,5495,2163,1762,575 2,173 Consolidated Cash Flow Statement million yuan 20112012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Profit before taxation 7,7096,2753,6693,465 2,924 Plus:Depr. and amortisation 1,1891,1091,2691,437 1,601 Finance cost 0715441448 661 Losses from investments 0000 0 Change in working capital 8003,923 (5,203) 1,281 308 Others (3,424) (481) (1,186) (147) (147) CF from operating activities 6,27310,561 (1,474) 5,618 4,616 CAPEX 37,9162,8002,3952,465 2,557 Other CF from investing activities 32,943 (1,258) (1,233) (1,121) (8,154) CF from investing activities (4,973) (4,058) (3,628) (3,586) (10,711) Equity financing 0793024 20 Net change in liabilities 6,2801001,207 (1,007) 7,092 Dividend and interest paid (1,385) (1,615) (1,053) (989) (1,078) Other CF from financing activities 1,028 (392) 00 0 CF from financing activities 5,923 (1,828) 184 (1,972) 6,034 Net cash flow 7,218 (4,919) 60 (60) FCFF 47,22313,0551,9278,083 7,173 FCFE 53,50312,4402,6936,628 13,604 Source:SYWGResearch & Consulting Company Consolidated Balance Sheet million yuan 20112012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Current Assets 46,19152,44644,16742,691 41,963 Bank balances and cash 11,08220,31010,83310,894 10,833 Trade and other receivables 9,53713,07910,5019,814 9,498 Inventories 14,09715,93612,93812,088 11,736 Other current assets 1,0562,3612,3612,361 2,361 Long-term investment 2,0673,0693,3133,874 7,951 PP&E 14,79216,56416,49217,658 18,537 Intangible and other assets 1,2861,2851,2131,176 1,139 Total Assets 68,15078,13370,23470,408 74,815 Current Liabilities 22,02027,23813,02011,657 18,390 Borrowings 9,13112,2631,1070 7,092 Trade and other payables 8,1589,8878,0427,787 7,428 Other current liabilities 3,1964,2023,1963,196 3,196 Long-term liabilities 6,3236,9886,3026,398 6,241 Total Liabilities 28,34434,22619,32218,055 24,631 Minority Interests 5031,088690738 778 Shareholder Equity 40,25143,72047,04949,012 50,644 Share Capital 3,4633,4633,4633,463 3,463 Reserves 23,74425,67526,03726,692 27,176 Equity attributable 13,04414,58317,55018,857 20,005 Total Liabilities and equity 68,15078,13370,23470,408 74,815 kuxsmi:3352kuxe Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page1 BuildinJan30,2014 IndustryResearch Information Disclosure: The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst. The analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the analyst, the Company or the group company(ies). 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