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油气行业研究报告:申银万国-油气行业路演反馈:2014年市场一致预期有望迎来调整-140130

研报作者:Rong Ye 来自:申银万国 时间:2014-01-30 13:56:49
  • 股票名称
    油气行业
  • 股票代码
  • 研报类型
    (PDF)
  • 发布者
    di***te
  • 研报出处
    申银万国
  • 研报页数
    14 页
  • 推荐评级
    超配
  • 研报大小
    499 KB
研究报告内容

IndustryResearch SWSResearchCo.Ltd 99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai|+862123297818 BringingChinatotheWorld January30,2014 超配 维持 2014年市场一致预期有望迎来调整 油气行业路演反馈 Analyst RongYeA0230512110001 AYZ033 yerong@swsresearch.com ResearchAssociate AlbertMiao A0230513050007 miaohx@swsresearch.com Contact AlbertMiao (8621)23297818×7238 miaohx@swsresearch.com RelatedReports “Drillingdown:Oil&Gas industrystrategy2014” January21,2014 “Stillalongwaytogo- Commentonreformplans fromaoilandgasview” Nov18,2013 The company does not hold any equities or derivatives of the listed company mentioned in this report (“target”), but then we shall provide financial advisory services subject to the relevant laws and regulations. Any affiliates of the company may hold equities of the target, which may exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investment banking services to the target. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact compliance@swsresearch.com for relevant disclosure materials or log into under disclosure column for further information. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure and disclaimer upon the last page. 投资要点: 市场一致预期在2014年将面临调整我们近期在香港和上海进行了三天的路 演。

这次路演使得我们对原来的观点和推荐更加坚信,我们认为模糊的市场预 期将在2014年1季度逐步迎来调整。

中石油和中石化仍为我们的行业推荐首 选,拥有诸多催化剂的中石油将拥有最大的改革空间和改革红利,而中石化的 盈利增长较为稳健,我们仍然相对不喜欢中海油。

此外,我们维持油服行业的 标配评级以及对安东的跑输大盘的评级。

目前行业低配中石油我们认为行业内一直低配中石油,对中石油的关注度非 常低,主要是由于疲弱油价的预期、政治风险和对天然气价格改革的悲观预 期。

市场过度的悲观情绪为市场提供了买入的机会,尤其是当阿根廷实践风险 可控之时。

考虑到国企改革的潜力,我们认为从上游天然气开采和天然气进口 两方面业务改善的潜力和改善的公司治理会为公司带来一个高于预期的阿尔 法,甚至相对于全球行业可比公司仍然具有一定的吸引力。

模糊的中海油,我们仍然心存疑虑低于预期的2014年产量引起了市场的恐 慌,但是在下半年的大项目投产前,对于中海油的谨慎的观点难以改变。

短期 的风险主要来自于2013年业绩低于预期(申万预计EPS为人民币1.36,低于 彭博一致预期的1.43)和荔湾3-1投产继续延期至2014年二季度。

在度过上 半年的艰难时期前,我们仍然维持对中海油的谨慎观点。

安东石油仍然为做空首选自从我们去年10月份下调行业评级至中性以来, 我们对于油服行业的谨慎观点并没有改变,同时我们认为2014年开始市场对于 整个行业的一直预期仍然需要不断调整,尤其是两大油外包油服作业给民企比 例的提升和持续的油服作业需求似乎不太可能,同时具体公司个别问题会在 2014年凸显出来,即便会计处理的方式可能存在一定的差异。

我们认为对于这 些民营油服公司来说,更为重要的是数据的质量,而不是盈利的低于还是超过 预期。

估值表: 市盈率(x)市净率(x) 公司代码评级 目标价 (HK$) (%) 13E 14E 15E 13E 14E 15E 中石油857:HK 买入10 31% 8.6 8.2 7.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 中石化386:HK增持7.6 23% 7.8 6.9 6.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 中海油883:HK中性13.5 11% 7.1 7.6 7.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 安东石油3337:HK减持2.7 -47% 23.6 23.6 22.3 3.8 3.3 2.9 IndustryResearch SWSResearchCo.Ltd 99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai|+862123297818 BringingChinatotheWorld InvestmentHighlights: Consensus to be revised.We recently attended the Hong Kong and Shanghai oil and gas sector roadshow. Our feedback leaves us confident with our previous expectations, while the uncertain market consensus will steadily change in 1Q14. We maintain our two top picks including PetroChina (857:HK), due to greater than expected SOE reform potential and multiple catalysts ahead and Sinopec (386:HK), due to the company’s solid earnings outlook. Cnooc (883:HK) remains our least preferred stock in the oil market, while Anton (3337:HK) is our top short in the oilfield services segment (Subsector rating: Neutral). PetroChina underweighted. For a considerable amount of time, PetroChina has been underweighted by the market, while interest in the company remains relatively weak. This is primarily due to the weak oil price outlook, political risks and pessimistic views towards natural gas price reforms. However, market over concerns may provide an opportunity to weigh back, particularly when the risks of Argentina can be controlled. Given potential SOE reforms, improved corporate governance and a clearer view on gas businesses from both the upstream and imports, a larger than expected Alpha may be created, increasing the company’s attractiveness over its global peers. Uncertain about Cnooc. In terms of production growth, the market went into a state of panic in 2014. Therefore, the cautious view on Cnooc will remain until 2H14. Increased projects will come on stream. Short-term headwinds will be inevitable, including a lower than expected EPS (Rmb1.36 in 13E vs Bloomberg consensus of Rmb1.43 during the same period) and potential delays in Liwan 3-1 gas field into 2Q14. Until the company has passed through its trough in 1H13 and there are clearer signs of stablisation, Cnooc will remain our least preferred stock. Anton remains top short. Last October, we downgraded China’s oilfield service sector to Equalweight. Our cautious view remains unchanged. The consensus sector view will be revised in 2014, since increasing outsourcing to private firms and sustainable growth in oilfield service demand seems unlikely. The company’s problems will have an increasing negative impact on earnings in 2014, including aggressive capex, financial burdens and shrinking margins. In addition, data quality is more important to private oilfield service companies than missed or exceeded earnings. Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page1 BuildinJanuary30,2014 IndustryResearch Figure1:UpstreamEbitgrowth 200820092010201120122013E 2014E 2015E Rmbbn CNOOCSinopec PetroChina Source: Company data, SWS Research Figure2:Sufficientsupplytolimitoilpriceupsideinthelongrun 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q mmbpd Worldproduction Worldconsumption Source: EIA,SWS Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page2 BuildinJanuary30,2014 IndustryResearch Figure3:Magnitudeofgaspricehikeseemsslightlylowerthanexpectation 200820092010201120122013E 2014E 2015E Rmb/kcm Sinopecgasprice PetroChinagasprice Sinopec(YoY%) PetroChina(YoY%) Source: Company data, SWS Research Figure4:Realrefinerycapacitygrowthwillbemuchslowerpreviousplans 500 520 540 560 580 600 620 640 660 680 700 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Plannedrefinerycapacity Nominalrefinerycapacity Realrefinerycapacity Realutilisation rate mtpa Source: CNPC,WIND, SWS Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page3 BuildinJanuary30,2014 IndustryResearch PetroChina(857:HK,BUY,TPHK$10) Consolidatedincomestatement million yuan 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 2,003,8432,195,2962,257,7062,313,5742,355,033 Exploration and production 774,777789,818811,598825,936831,511 Refining and chemicals 847,711883,218884,709903,622902,071 Sales and marketing 1,693,1301,890,5581,891,4181,931,2401,956,316 Natural gas and pipeline 173,058202,196236,113257,452298,316 Corporate and others 2,3542,5302,7833,0613,367 Ebitda 304,501306,779348,902373,187412,483 Ebit 182,461174,519195,083200,958219,081 Finance costs 9,14815,97021,70122,18323,632 Profit before tax 184,215166,811183,182190,774210,450 Income tax expense 38,25636,19136,63638,15542,090 Minority interests 12,99815,29417,58518,31420,203 Profit for the year 132,961115,326128,960134,305148,157 Source:SWS Research Consolidatedcashflowstatement million yuan 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Profit before taxation 119,963100,032111,375115,991127,953 Plus:Depr. and amortisation 122,040132,260153,819172,230193,402 Finance cost 9,14815,97021,70122,18323,632 Losses from investments -10,902 -8,262 -9,800 -12,000 -15,000 Change in working capital 31,970 -38,63011,8796,12627,063 Others 94,8701,16014,02615,17721,089 CF from operating activities 288,716228,968324,145341,159397,457 CAPEX -286,820 -351,940 -272,580 -347,368 -399,473 Other CF from investing activities -6,87610,7689,80012,00015,000 CF from investing activities -293,696 -341,172 -262,780 -335,368 -384,473 Equity financing 00000 Net change in liabilities 84,760126,64059,53263,85552,861 Dividend and interest paid -28,617 -41,456 -79,733 -82,621 -90,302 Other CF from financing activities -1,713 -1,3355,37000 CF from financing activities 20,44394,427 -14,831 -18,766 -37,442 Net cash flow 15,463 -17,77746,534 -12,975 -24,458 FCFF 11,395 -119,98251,565 -6,209 -2,016 FCFE 87,007 -9,31289,39635,46327,213 Source:SWS Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page4 BuildinJanuary30,2014 IndustryResearch Consolidatedbalancesheet million yuan 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Current Assets 382,710414,330463,011 459,087428,656 Bank balances and cash 61,59046,25092,784 79,80955,351 Trade and other receivables 66,51074,43075,257 77,11978,501 Inventories 182,250214,120217,118 222,381213,595 Other current assets 72,36079,53077,852 79,77881,208 Long-term investment 162,870184,670120,000 120,000120,000 PP&E 1,372,0101,569,8901,753,321 1,928,4592,134,529 Intangible and other assets 162,870184,670120,000 120,000120,000 Total Assets 1,917,5902,168,8902,336,331 2,507,5462,683,185 Current Liabilities 560,040574,750593,308 612,340636,290 Borrowings 137,700151,250155,782 159,637162,497 Trade and other payables 302,600351,460343,770 352,103388,355 Other current liabilities 119,74072,04093,756 100,60185,438 Long-term liabilities 275,000413,400473,770 533,770583,770 Total Liabilities 835,040988,1501,067,078 1,146,1101,220,060 Minority Interests 79,800116,740134,325 152,640172,843 Shareholder Equity 1,002,7501,064,0001,134,928 1,208,7961,290,282 Total Liabilities and equity 1,917,5902,168,8902,336,331 2,507,5462,683,185 Source:SWS Research KeyFinancialRatios 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Rmb Earnings per share 0.730.630.70 0.730.81 Diluted EPS 0.730.630.70 0.730.81 Operating CF per share 1.581.251.77 1.862.17 Dividend per share 0.330.280.32 0.330.36 Net assets per share 5.926.456.94 7.448.00 Key operating ratios (%) ROIC 10.48.78.9 8.38.4 ROE 12.39.810.2 9.910.1 Ebitda margin 15.214.015.5 16.117.5 Ebit margin 9.17.98.6 8.79.3 Revenue (YoY %) 36.79.62.8 2.51.8 Earnings (YoY %) -5.0 -13.311.8 4.110.3 Debt-to-asset ratio 43.545.645.7 45.745.5 Turnover rate of net assets 198.3194.0184.3 175.9166.8 Turnover rate of total assets 112.1107.4100.2 95.590.7 Effective tax rate (%) 21.020.718.8 19.019.2 Dividend yield (%) 4.03.53.9 4.14.5 Source:SWS Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page5 BuildinJanuary30,2014 IndustryResearch Sinopec:(386:HK,Outperform,TPHK$7.6) million yuan 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 25056832786045 2963764 31197243299032 EBITDA 169346169118 188128 212005227619 EBIT 10553098662 107864 122025127339 Finance Costs 2249646 6400 67797889 Profit before tax 10456590642 103764 117045120950 Income tax expense 2612023846 25941 2926130238 Minority interests 2917 -5448 -6145 -63500 Profit for the year 7322563879 72375 8163984363 Source:SWS Research ConsolidatedCashFlowStatement million yuan 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Profit before taxation 7844566796 77823 8778490713 Plus:Depr. and amortisation 6381670456 80264 89981100280 Finance cost 52859881 6850 71298289 Losses from investments -4320 -1861 -2750 -2150 -1900 Change in working capital 3353518043 33402 1388887175 Others -28493 -26403 -19732 -11817 -14499 CF from operating activities 148268136912 175858 184815270057 CAPEX -108336 -150232 -168981 -194328 -205988 Other CF from investing activities -36694 -15800 -9758 21501900 CF from investing activities -145030 -166032 -178739 -192178 -204088 Equity financing 00 0 00 Net change in liabilities 7224378082 37768 4998254564 Dividend and interest paid -24754 -35367 -35800 -39785 -42034 Other CF from financing activities -43088 -27786 11624 00 CF from financing activities 440114929 13591 1019712530 Net cash flow -145030 -166032 -178739 -192178 -204088 FCFF 6842513083 26609 230478569 FCFE 13538381284 57526 45157124844 Source:SWS Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page6 BuildinJanuary30,2014 IndustryResearch ConsolidatedBalanceSheet million yuan 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Current Assets 342755365015 394997 416796518013 Bank balances and cash 2464710456 21166 24000102500 Trade and other receivables 86682101440 98792 103991109968 Inventories 203420218260 237992 249808264308 Other current assets 2800634859 37047 3899741238 Long-term investment 00 0 00 PP&E 703348794186 882903 9872501092958 Intangible and other assets 98425107492 120000 1200000 Total Assets 11445281266693 1397900 15240461610971 Current Liabilities 444240513373 554083 585101705059 Borrowings 86306122638 130406 140388164952 Trade and other payables 177002215628 219685 230592275799 Other current liabilities 00 0 00 Long-term liabilities 192944205284 246908 286908316908 Total Liabilities 637184718657 800991 8720091021967 Minority Interests 00 0 00 Shareholder Equity 507344548036 596909 652037709005 Total Liabilities and equity 11445281266693 1397900 15240461730971 Source:SWS Research KeyFinancialRatios 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Ratios per share (yuan) Earnings per share 0.630.55 0.62 0.700.72 Diluted EPS 0.600.53 0.60 0.670.70 Operating CF per share 1.741.17 1.51 1.592.32 Dividend per share 0.300.23 0.22 0.250.25 Net assets per share 5.854.70 5.12 5.596.08 Key Operating Ratios(%) ROIC 9.48.0 7.9 8.17.9 ROE 14.411.7 12.1 12.511.9 Gross profit margin 18.90.0 0.0 0.00.0 EBITDAMargin 6.86.1 6.3 6.86.9 EBIT Margin 4.23.5 3.6 3.93.9 Growth rate of Revenue(YoY) 31.011.2 6.4 5.35.7 Growth rate of Profit(YoY) 2.0 -12.8 13.3 12.83.3 Debt-to-asset ratio 55.756.7 57.3 57.263.4 Turnover rate of net assets 5.45.3 5.2 5.04.8 Turnover rate of total assets 2.32.3 2.2 2.12.1 Effective tax rate (%) 24.824.2 24.0 24.023.7 Dividend yield (%) 4.53.4 3.3 3.73.8 Source:SWS Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page7 BuildinJanuary30,2014 IndustryResearch CNOOC:(883:HK,Neutral,TPHK$13.5) Consolidatedincomestatement Rmbm 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 240,944247,627245,961 244,934267,228 Ebitda 90,60787,141119,521 117,750131,253 Ebit 90,60787,14179,692 75,25880,346 Finance costs (3,790) (3,444) (2,627) (2,558) (2,627) Profit before tax 92,56590,17284,219 78,81683,974 Income tax expense 22,31026,48123,581 22,06923,513 Minority interest 000 00 Profit for the year 70,25563,69160,638 56,74860,461 Source:SWS Research Consolidatedcashflowstatement Rmbm 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Profit before tax 92,56590,172 60,638 56,74860,461 Plus:Depr. and amortisation 30,52132,903 39,829 42,49250,906 Finance cost 1,6651,836 1,789 2,3982,587 Losses from investments (567) 27 0 00 Change in working capital (4,737) (30,679) (15,678) (25,245) (28,278) Others (1,611) 151 0 00 CF from operating activities 116,17192,574 88,333 92,165102,515 Capex (52,773) (63,040) (81,952) (90,147) (99,162) Other CF from investing activities (46,263) (757) 0 00 CF from investing activities (99,036) (63,797) (75,901) (90,147) (99,162) Equity financing (256) 0 0 00 Net change in liabilities 2,55220,055 74,025 54,000165,000 Dividend and interest paid (20,877) (15,635) 15,159 14,18715,115 Other CF from financing activities (1,665) (1,836) 0 00 CF from financing activities (20,246) 2,584 19,773 68,187180,115 Net cash flow (3,609) 31,346 101,616 70,205183,468 FCFF 41,308 (156) (1,690) (19,711) (19,700) FCFE 42,19518,063 70,546 31,891142,713 Source:SWS Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page8 BuildinJanuary30,2014 IndustryResearch Consolidatedbalancesheet Rmbm 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Current assets 131,923170,894 246,092 264,300266,571 Bank balances and cash 99,197133,709 206,149 224,395221,198 Trade and other receivables 20,66223,624 24,245 24,11726,904 Inventories 4,3805,247 5,819 5,7886,457 Other current assets 7,6848,314 10,000 10,00010,000 Long-term investment 30,36231,068 33,436 34,10134,866 PP&E 220,567252,132 289,952 334,379383,461 Intangible and other assets 1,033973 1,199 1,1991,199 Total assets 384,264456,070 571,680 634,046687,100 Current liabilities 70,21682,437 91,753 102,240106,697 Borrowings 19,91928,830 38,000 48,00050,000 Trade and other payables 20,66223,624 23,753 24,24026,697 Other current liabilities 21,97917,800 20,000 20,00020,000 Long-term liabilities 18,07629,056 124,347 132,581136,139 Total liabilities 121,408146,290 216,099 234,821242,837 Minority interests 00 0 00 Shareholder equity 262,856309,780 355,457 399,724443,842 Share capital 949949 949 949949 Reserves 236,965283,931 312,379 356,646400,764 Equity attributable 42,12942,129 42,129 42,12942,129 Total liabilities and equity 384,264456,070 571,556 634,545686,679 Source:SWS Research Keyfinancialratios 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Ratios per share (Rmb) Earnings per share 1.571.43 1.36 1.271.35 Diluted EPS 1.571.42 1.35 1.351.35 Operating CF per share 2.602.07 1.98 2.062.30 Dividend per share 0.430.38 0.34 0.320.34 Net assets per share 5.886.94 7.96 8.959.94 Key operating ratios (%) ROIC 33.1025.59 18.86 15.6314.52 ROE 26.7320.56 17.06 14.2013.62 Ebit margin 37.6135.19 48.59 48.0749.12 Revenue (YoY) 37.6135.19 32.40 30.7330.07 Earnings (YoY) 31.632.77 (0.67) (0.42) 9.10 Debt-to-asset ratio 29.12 (9.34) (4.79) (6.42) 6.54 Turnover rate of net assets 31.5932.08 37.80 37.0435.34 Turnover rate of total assets 100.6886.49 73.95 64.8763.36 Effective tax rate (%) 67.6658.94 47.86 40.6340.45 Dividend yield (%) 24.6230.39 29.59 29.3229.26 Source:SWS Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page9 BuildinJanuary30,2014 IndustryResearch Anton:(3337:HK,Underperform,TPHK$2.7) ConsolidatedIncomeStatement million yuan 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 12592005242826732958 Down-Hole Operation Technology 570857110811561237 Well Completion Technology 320458520559601 Drilling technology 198433505604712 Oilfield Tube and Field Support Services 171257295354407 Cost of Sales 7361103140816041834 Gross Profit 523901102010691124 Other Income 211000 Selling/General/Admi. Expenses 269415437428458 EBITDA 226491700839617 EBIT 226398543597617 Finance Costs 1631000 Profit before tax 145367414456469 Income tax expense 2150545961 Minority interests 15 -14 -16 -160 Profit for the year 77303370381392 ConsolidatedCashFlowStatement million yuan 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Profit before taxation 92318384396408 Plus:Depr. and amortisation 5993157242292 Finance cost 1415495359 Losses from investments 140000 Change in working capital 740 -246 -466 -698 Others 9060 -100 CF from operating activities 220350381528414 CAPEX -196 -276 -588 -578 -168 Other CF from investing activities -22000 CF from investing activities -198 -273 -612 -578 -168 Equity financing 00000 Net change in liabilities 1350200400600 Dividend and interest paid 96 -47 -98 -111 -114 Other CF from financing activities 157 -122000 CF from financing activities 258 -11123289486 Net cash flow 27365 -108239733 FCFF 75206 -188 -263 -17 FCFE 197191 -3783523 Source:SWS Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page10 BuildinJanuary30,2014 IndustryResearch ConsolidatedBalanceSheet million yuan 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Current Assets 15412214218625633482 Bank balances and cash 478539433288488 Trade and other receivables 7301159128417402261 Inventories 271487469535734 Other current assets 7729000 Long-term investment 40000 PP&E 539984154221202288 Intangible and other assets 631395380380390 Total Assets 24983593410950636160 Current Liabilities 7421209105611121094 Borrowings 355229100100100 Trade and other payables 218643676722734 Other current liabilities 00000 Long-term liabilities 1630369910991699 Total Liabilities 7581512175522112793 Minority Interests 00000 Shareholder Equity 17402081235828533362 Share Capital 198201211621162116 Reserves 558753143919332442 Equity attributable 920920920920920 Total Liabilities and equity 24983593410950636160 KeyFinancialRatios 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Ratios per share (yuan) Earnings per share 0.040.140.170.170.18 Diluted EPS 0.040.140.170.170.18 Operating CF per share 0.110.170.170.230.17 Dividend per share 0.020.050.050.050.05 Net assets per share 0.040.981.061.221.37 Key Operating Ratios(%) ROIC 10.916.717.7114.1511.88 ROE 104.5714.5415.6813.3411.65 Gross profit margin 41.5444.96424038 EBITDAMargin 17.9524.5128.8331.4120.85 EBIT Margin 17.9519.8522.3522.3520.85 Growth rate of Revenue(YoY) 32.4259.2221.1310.0710.67 Growth rate of Profit(YoY) -33.7291.2122.22.932.88 Debt-to-asset ratio 30.3342.0842.7243.6745.33 Turnover rate of net assets 145.91186.05109.39102.5795.18 Turnover rate of total assets 53.765.8363.0558.2852.71 Effective tax rate (%) 9.2312.489.929.929.88 Source:SWS Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page11 BuildinJanuary30,2014 IndustryResearch Information Disclosure: The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst. The analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the analyst, the Company or the group company(ies). A group company(ies) of the Company confirm that they, whether individually or as a group (i) are not involved in any market making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with any group company(ies) of the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do not have any financial interest in relation to the listed corporation reviewed or (iv) do not, presently or within the last 12 months, have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation reviewed. Undertakings of the Analyst I (We) am (are) conferred the Professional Quality of Securities Investment Consulting Industry by the Securities Association of China and have registered as the Securities Analyst. I hereby issue this report independently and objectively with due diligence, professional and prudent research methods and only legitimate information is used in this report. I am also responsible for the content and opinions of this report. I have never been, am not, and will not be compensated directly or indirectly in any form for the specific recommendations or opinions herein. Disclosure with respect to the Company The company is a qualified securities investment consulting institute approved by China Securities Regulatory Commission with the code number ZX0065. Releasing securities research reports is the basic form of the securities investment consulting services. The company may analyze the values or market trends of securities and related products or other relevant affecting factors, provide investment analysis advice on securities valuation/ investment rating, etc. by issuing securities research reports solely to its clients. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact compliance@swsresearch.com for the relevant disclosure materials or log into for the analysts' qualifications,the arrangement of the quiet period and the affiliates’ shareholdings. Introduction of Share Investment Rating Security Investment Rating: When measuring the difference between the markup of the security and that of the market’s benchmark within six months after the release of this report, we define the terms as follows: Buy: with a markup more than 20% better than that of the market; Outperform:With a markup 5% to 20% better than that of the market; Neutral: with a markup less than 5% better or worse than that of the market; Underperform: with a markup more than 5% worse than that of the market. Industry Investment Rating: When measuring the difference between the markup of the industry index and that of the market’s benchmark within six months after the release of the report, we define the terms as follows: Overweight:Industry performs better than that of the whole market; Equal weight: Industry performs about the same as that of the whole market; Underweight:Industry performs worse than that of the whole market. We would like to remind you that different security research institutions adopt different rating terminologies and rating standards. We adopt the relative rating method to recommend the relative weightings of investment. The clients’ decisions to buy or sell securities shall be based on their actual situation, such as their portfolio structures and other necessary factors. The clients shall read through the whole report so as to obtain the complete opinions and information and shall not rely solely on the investment ratings to reach a conclusion. The Company employs its own industry classification system. The industry classification is available at our sales personnel if you are interested. HSCEI is the benchmark employed in this report. Disclaimer: This report is to be used solely by the clients of SWS Research Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the “Company”). The Company will not deem any other person as its client notwithstanding his receipt of this report. This report is based on public information, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not warranted by the Company. The materials, tools, opinions and speculations contained herein are for the clients’ reference only, and are not to be regarded or deemed as an invitation for the sale or purchase of any security or other investment instruments. The clients understand that the text message reminder and telephone recommendation are no more than a brief communication of the research opinions, which are subject to the complete report released on the Company’s website (. The clients may ask for follow-up explanations if they so wish. The materials, opinions and estimates contained herein only reflect the judgment of the Company on the day this report is released. The prices, values and investment returns of the securities or investment instruments referred to herein may fluctuate. At different periods, the Company may release reports which are inconsistent with the materials, opinions and estimates contained herein. Save and except as otherwise stipulated in this report, the contactor upon the first page of the report only acts as the liaison who shall not provide any consulting services. The clients shall consider the Company’s possible conflict of interests which may affect the objectivity of this report, and shall not base their investment decisions solely on this report. The clients should make investment decisions independently and solely at your own risk. Please be reminded that in any event, the company will not share gains or losses of any securities investment with the clients. Whether written or oral, any commitment to share gains or losses of securities investment is invalid. The investment and services referred to herein may not be suitable for certain clients and shall not constitute personal advice for individual clients. The Company does not ensure that this report fully takes into consideration of the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of individual clients. The Company strongly suggests the clients to consider themselves whether the opinions or suggestions herein are suitable for the clients’ particular situations; and to consult an independent investment consultant if necessary. Under no circumstances shall the information contained herein or the opinions expressed herein forms an investment recommendation to anyone. Under no circumstances shall the Company be held responsible for any loss caused by the use of any contents herein by anyone. Please be particularly cautious to the risks and exposures of the market via investment. Independent investment consultant should be consulted before any investment decision is rendered based on this report or at any request of explanation for this report where the receiver of this report is not a client of the Company. The Company possesses all copyrights of this report which shall be treated as non-public information. The Company reserves all rights related to this report. Unless otherwise indicated in writing, all the copyrights of all the materials herein belong to the Company. In the absence of any prior authorization by the Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page12 BuildinJanuary30,2014 IndustryResearch Company in writing, no part of this report shall be copied, photocopied, replicated or redistributed to any other person in any form by any means, or be used in any other ways which will infringe upon the copyrights of the Company. All the trademarks, service marks and marks used herein are trademarks, service marks or marks of the Company, and no one shall have the right to use them at any circumstances without the prior consent of the Company. This report may be translated into different languages. The Company does not warrant that the translations are free from errors or discrepancies. This report is for distribution in Hong Kong only to persons who fall within the definition of professional investors whether under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the laws of Hong Kong) (the “SFO”) or the Securities and Futures (Professional Investor) Rules (Chapter 571D of the laws of the Hong Kong under the SFO). This report is for distribution in the United Kingdom only to persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) order 2001 (as amended) (the “Order”) or (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (“High Net Worth Companies, Unincorporated Associations, etc”) of the Order (All such persons together being referred to as “Relevant Persons”). This document is directed only at Relevant Persons. 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