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研究报告:高华证券-亚洲经济分析:中国的放缓和美联储缩减资产购买引起新兴市场波动-140130

研报作者:Andrew Tilton,Goohoon Kwon,Tushar Poddar 来自:高华证券 时间:2014-02-07 10:11:54
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2014年1月30日 Issue No: 14/05 亚洲经济分析 研究报告 中国的放缓和美联储缩减资产购买引起新兴市场波动 最近几周内新兴市场普遍承压,主要缘于中国的增长放缓和信贷担忧、部分国家 的大规模外部赤字,以及美联储面对喜忧参半的美国经济数据对资产购买的持续 缩减。

最新的1月份中国汇丰/Markit PMI数据进一步显示了中国增长的放缓,尽管最近 韩国和台湾的经济活动数据更加令人鼓舞。

我们将在未来一周内获得重要的经济活动数据(全球采购经理人指数与韩国出 口),从而获悉全球需求复苏的最新进展。

鉴于当前新兴市场的担忧,这些数据 对于市场信心而言至关重要。

本期内容 Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 andrew.tilton@gs.com 高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司 Goohoon Kwon, CFA +82(2)3788-1775 goohoon.kwon@gs.com 高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司首尔分公司 Tushar Poddar +91(22)6616-9042 tushar.poddar@gs.com 高盛(印度)证券私人有限公司 崔历 +852-2978-0784 li.cui@gs.com 高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司 宋宇 +86(10)6627-3111 yu.song@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司 Mark Tan +65-6889-2472 mark.tan@gs.com 高盛(新加坡)私人公司 Chiwoong Lee +82(2)3788-1722 chiwoong.lee@gs.com 高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司首尔分公司 邓敏强 +852-2978-6634 mk.tang@gs.com 高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司 Jonathan Sequeira +852-2978-0698 jonathan.sequeira@gs.com 高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司 魏静娴 +852-2978-0106 maggie.wei@gs.com 高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司 Vishal Vaibhaw +91(22)6616-9376 vishal.vaibhaw@gs.com 高盛(印度)证券私人有限公司 Hui Ying Chan +65-6654-5459 huiying.chan@gs.com 高盛(新加坡)私人公司 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。

有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息,见信息披露附录,或参阅 /research/hedge.html。

高盛集团 全球投资研究 Regionalrecap:EmergingmarketsvolatilityamidstChinasoftnessandFed tapering page2 Asiaex-Japaneconomiccalendar page7 Forecasttables page8 2014年1月30日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究2 Regional recap: Emerging markets volatility amidst China softness and Fed tapering We wish our clients who celebrate the Chinese New Year a happy and prosperous New Year of the Horse. Reflecting the holiday in much of the region, this week's Asia Economics Analyst is an abridged version without an analytical research piece. We begin with our usual weekly recap of significant economic and market events. Emerging market (EM) asset markets have come under broad pressure in recent weeks against a backdrop of concerns on: China growth softness and credit issues; the need for countries with weak external deficits to undertake more policy tightening to put deficits on a more sustainable footing; and continued Fed tapering in conjunction with mixed US data. The Turkish central bank’s much-larger-than-expected rate hike mid-week did provide some temporary respite across markets. However, EM currencies continued their weakening trend once more post the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where policymakers decided to continue “tapering” the pace of its asset purchases by an additional US$10bn per month. The latest January China HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI gave further indication of growth softening in China, although recent activity data from Korea and Taiwan have been more encouraging. We will get important activity data in the week ahead in the form of global PMIs and Korean exports, which will provide the latest on the state of global demand recovery. These data points could prove to be crucial for market sentiment, amidst the current EM jitters; we believe a continued trade surplus in Indonesia would likely keep sentiment relatively positive towards the rupiah. Softer China growth adding to EM worries China’s HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI provided further indication of growth softening, declining by a full point to post the first sub-50 result since July 2013. The official China PMI, due out on February 1, will provide additional information on the latest activity momentum. In the week ahead, other PMIs around the globe as well as Korean export data, which will contain the latest information on the state of the recovery in global demand, could prove to be critical for market sentiment amidst the current EM jitters. Investors fretted over potential credit issues stemming from difficulties with a China investment trust (see EMMacro Daily - A matter of trust: Q&A on a potential Chinese trust default, January 22,2014). Although this appears to have been resolved, with the investors receiving an offer for full principal repayment, the implication is likely to be tighter credit conditions going forward, as our China banks team has noted (see China: Banks: Interbank VI: Mapping trust exposure – banks securitized Rmb6 tn, January 27,2014). 2014年1月30日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究3 Exhibit 1: China PMI show softening activity momentum Source: Haver. More hawkish central bank policy actions in the region Earlier in the week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked the repo rate by 25bp to 8.0%, in line with our expectations but against Bloomberg consensus expectations which were widely predicting no change. In justifying its action, the RBI mentioned the Urjit Patel Committee recommendations for inflation targets. The committee has recommended a target for headline CPI of below 8% by January 2015, and below 6% by January 2016. The RBI mentioned that, with its baseline projections and the current policy stance, “there are upside risks to the central forecast of 8%”. In our view, the RBI seems to have de facto adopted an inflation target based on headline CPI, with the objectives as mentioned above. This is in line with our assessment of the report (see EMMacro Daily: India—a step forward for the RBI’s policy framework, January 27, 2014). We think that this is a positive move, as it will make policy transparent, increase accountability, and focus policy makers’ minds on one objective. We think that the market did not expect such an early adoption of the target; hence, the more-hawkish-than-expected stance of the RBI. While the policy statement suggests that the RBI is clearly on hold if the inflation targets are met, we think there are upside risks to the inflation projections. Our current forecast is for the repo rate to peak at 8.5%. Meanwhile, Bank Negara Malaysia also kept rates on hold at its recent policy meeting, but was more hawkish on inflation, noting that, “going forward, inflation is expected to average higher largely due to domestic cost factors”. We expect Bank Negara Malaysia to hike rates by a total of 50bp starting in Q32014, as inflationary pressures continue to build. 40 44 48 52 56 60 40 44 48 52 56 60 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Headline Index China HSBC/Markit PMI: Index Index 2014年1月30日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究4 Exhibit 2: A surprise hike in the repo rate as the RBI moves to adopt inflation targeting Source: Haver. Stronger-than-expected activity data from Korea and Taiwan Korea industrial production (IP) rebounded strongly in December, rising 3.4% mom (2.6% yoy), seasonally adjusted, from flat growth of 0.1% mom in November. Memory chips and autos accounted for nearly 60% of the sequential gain while handsets and refinery products were a drag. We expect the economy to maintain the recovery momentum over the coming months on a positive export outlook and a modest recovery in domestic demand, boosted in part by a rate cut by the Bank of Korea and the recent passage of several housing market boosting laws. Exhibit 3: Sequential rebound in Korean industrial activity Source: Haver. 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 India Repo Rate (EOP,% per annum) Percent per annum Percent per annum -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 yoy mom ( 3mma)-RHS Korea industrial production: 2014年1月30日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究5 Growth in Taiwan was also stronger than expected, growing 2.9% yoy (vs. Bloomberg consensus of 1.8% yoy) and 10.1% qoq annualized (after seasonal adjustment) in Q42013 – higher than 1.7% yoy in Q32013. The improvement was mainly driven by domestic demand, which increased 4.1% yoy and contributed 3.2 percentage points (ppt) to overall yoy GDP growth. Within domestic demand, gross capital formation improved the most and grew at 9.7% yoy, compared with 0.8% in Q3. Private consumption growth also accelerated, to 3.3% yoy from 1.5% yoy in Q3. Exports growth accelerated to 4.0% yoy, from 1.7% yoy in Q3, though net exports cut 0.25 ppt from overall GDP growth in Q4 because of much stronger imports, which increased 6.1% yoy, reflecting the strength of domestic demand. We expect Taiwanese real GDP growth to improve to 3.8% yoy in 2014, benefiting from a better external environment and stronger domestic demand. Finally, we also had Q42013 GDP from the Philippines, which grew at a better-than-expected pace of 6.5% yoy—above Bloomberg consensus expectations of 6.0% yoy and our expectation of 5.9% yoy. This was a moderation from the 6.9% yoy growth in Q32013, as growth was partly weighed upon by the impact of the typhoon in Q4. However, we expect reconstruction spending and recovery-related investment to have a beneficial impact in the quarters ahead. Exhibit 4: Strong acceleration in Taiwanese GDP, as flagged by acceleration in our Current Activity Indicator Source: Haver, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Thai political volatility in the lead up to the February 2 elections Political uncertainty in Thailand persists in the lead up to scheduled elections on February 2. The ongoing political turmoil has already taken its toll on domestic growth. We recently downgraded our real GDP growth forecasts (we now forecast 3.0% growth for 2013 and 3.6% for 2014) due to the ongoing deterioration in consumer confidence and business sentiment which could postpone investment and spending decisions in light of ongoing political uncertainty (see Asia Econ Analyst: 14/03: Thailand’s political turmoil and its economic consequences, January 16,2014). The Bank of Thailand (BOT) recently downgraded its GDP forecasts as well – to “less than 3%” for 2013 and 3% for 2014, well below potential growth. A simple monetary policy “rule” for the BOT which we have constructed, relating the behavior of short-term policy rates to economic conditions, implies lower policy rates. Although the BOT did keep rates on hold at its last meeting against broad expectations for a cut, the decision was a -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 200620072008200920102011201220132014 Taiwan Current Activity Indicator GDP Percent, quarter on quarter, s.a. annualized Percent, quarter on quarter, s.a. annualized 2014年1月30日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究6 close one, with three out of seven members on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voting for a cut. The statement suggested that the economy could “weather … short-term risks”, presumably a reference to the scheduled February 2 election. We believe that the balance of risks remains skewed toward a cut at its next meeting in March, especially as the statement left the door open to future cuts, indicating the MPC will “stand ready to take appropriate actions as warranted”. Exhibit 5: Weakness in Thai domestic growth implies lower policy rates Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Mark Tan 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 050607080910111213141516 Implied Policy Rate from 'Rule' Actual Policy Rate Percent Percent Bank of Thailand: 2014年1月30日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究7 Asia ex-Japan Economics Calendar Korea exports (Feb 1): We expect January exports to grow modestly by 1.3% yoy (slightly below Bloomberg consensus), after strong growth of 7.0% yoy in December. The weaker year-over-year growth reflects strong base effects from the large month-on- month increase in January 2013. Korea CPI (Feb 4): We expect January headline inflation to remain low at 1.1% yoy (the same as in December 2013), in line with Bloomberg consensus. Indonesia real GDP (Feb 5): We expect slowing growth momentum on the back of the significant monetary policy tightening so far (175bp in rate hikes since June). We forecast Q42013 GDP growth to slow to 5.0% yoy, from 5.6% yoy previously and below Bloomberg consensus expectations of 5.3% yoy. Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Date Country Indicator/Event Period GSBloomberg Previous Time (HKT) Forecast Consensus Fri Jan 31 11:00 Thailand Customs Exports Dec +1.8% yoy -4.1% yoy 11:00 Thailand Customs Imports Dec -7.0% yoy -8.6% yoy 11:00 Thailand Customs Trade Balance Dec -US$718mn -US$557mn 15:30 Thailand Foreign Reserves 24-Jan US$166.4bn 15:30 Thailand Current Account Balance Dec US$2.3bn Sat Feb 1 8:00 Korea Exports Jan +1.3% yoy +1.5% yoy +7.0% yoy 8:00 Korea Imports Jan -2.0% yoy +3.0% yoy 8:00 Korea Trade Balance Jan US$1.4bn US$3.6bn 9:00 China Manufacturing PMIJan 50.551.0 Mon Feb 3 12:00 Indonesia CPIJan +8.4% yoy +8.3% yoy +8.4% yoy 12:00 Indonesia Exports Dec +2.3% yoy -2.4% yoy 12:00 Indonesia Imports Dec -1.0% yoy -10.6% yoy 12:00 Indonesia Trade Balance Dec US$500mn US$777mn # Thailand CPIJan +1.7% yoy +1.7% yoy * Korea Foreign Reserves Jan US$346bn * Indonesia Foreign Reserves Jan US$99.4bn Tue Feb 4 7:00 Korea CPIJan +1.1% yoy +1.1% yoy +1.1% yoy 16:30 Hong Kong Retail Sales Dec +7.1% yoy +8.5% yoy Wed Feb 5 9:00 Philippines CPIJan +4.1% yoy +4.1% yoy # Indonesia Real GDPQ4 +5.0% yoy +5.3% yoy +5.6% yoy Thu Feb 6 8:30 Taiwan CPIJan +0.7% yoy +0.3% yoy 16:00 Philippines Central Bank Policy Meeting 3.50% 3.50% 16:20 Taiwan Foreign Reserves Jan US$416.8bn Fri Feb 7 12:00 Malaysia Exports Dec +10.0% yoy +6.7% yoy 12:00 Malaysia Imports Dec +6.4% yoy 12:00 Malaysia Trade Balance Dec RM9.7bn 15:30 Thailand Foreign Reserves 31-Jan 18:00 Malaysia Foreign Reserves 30-Jan US$135bn # Philippines Foreign Reserves Jan US$83.2bn # Release time uncertain, time shown (if any) is the approximate typical release time. * Release date uncertain, date shown is the first possible day of release: Korea foreign reserves Feb (3-5) Indonesia foreign reserves Feb (3-7) 2014年1月30日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究8 Forecast Tables Real GDPGrowth (year-over-year) GSConsensus GSConsensus Asia ex-Japan 6.36.46.26.7 - China 7.77.87.57.87.4 India 4.4** 5.5** 5.4** 6.5** - South Korea 2.83.73.63.83.7 Hong Kong 3.23.73.54.43.6 Taiwan 2.43.83.33.93.8 ASEAN 4.84.94.95.55.3 Singapore 3.23.83.84.24.0 Malaysia 4.75.05.15.25.0 Thailand 3.03.63.64.74.6 Indonesia 5.65.35.46.05.8 Philippines 7.06.36.36.56.2 USA 1.93.32.83.23.0 Euro area -0.41.11.01.51.4 Japan 1.71.41.71.21.2 *GS estimates for annualized growth rate of potential output from 2013-16 **Fiscal year basis,2013 is India FY14 (Q22013-Q12014). Source: Consensus Economics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. 6.0 6.0 2.5 1.1 0.8 3.7 4.0 5.0 4.5 7.7 6.0 3.8 4.0 201320142015 Potential Growth* Consumer Prices (year-over-year) GSConsensus GSConsensus Asia ex-Japan 3.23.83.73.8 - China 2.63.03.13.03.3 India 6.4* 6.3* 5.9* 6.5* - South Korea 1.22.22.12.62.6 Hong Kong 4.03.33.83.33.6 Taiwan 0.81.41.41.81.8 ASEAN 4.34.54.34.04.0 Singapore 3.03.33.03.52.8 Malaysia 2.33.03.12.63.4 Thailand 2.22.62.42.92.8 Indonesia 7.06.86.25.55.3 Philippines 3.23.84.03.53.9 USA 1.51.61.61.91.9 Euro area 1.41.11.11.61.4 Japan 0.22.32.41.71.6 *WPI for India on fiscal year basis,2013 is India FY14 (Q22013-Q12014); inflation objective rather than target **Core inflation target ***ECB aims to maintain inflation rates "below, but close to,2% over the medium term" Source: Consensus Economics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. - - 0.5-3.0 ** 3.5-5.5 - 20132014 2.0 2.5-3.5 - 3.0-5.0 2.0 2.0*** 2015 Inflation Target/Range 3.5 5.0* 2014年1月30日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究9 Forecast Tables (continued) Policy Interest Rates (percent) Current Jan 301Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Asia ex-Japan China 4.984.004.004.254.254.504.504.504.50 India 8.008.008.508.508.508.508.508.258.00 South Korea 2.502.502.252.252.252.502.752.753.00 Hong Kong - - - - - - - - - Taiwan 1.91.91.92.02.02.02.12.32.3 ASEAN Singapore - - - - - - - - - Malaysia 3.003.003.003.253.503.503.503.503.50 Thailand 2.252.002.002.002.002.502.752.752.75 Indonesia 7.507.757.757.757.757.256.756.756.75 Philippines 3.503.503.754.004.004.004.004.004.00 USA 0.070.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.13 Euro area 0.250.250.250.250.250.250.250.500.50 Japan 0.090.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.10 Policy interest rates: China: 7-day repo, India: repo rate; Korea: 7-day repo; Malaysia: overnight policy rate; Thailand: 1-day repo, Philippines: repo rate, Indonesia: 1-month SBI rate, Taiwan: rediscount rate; USA: Fed funds effective rate; Euro Area: Main refinancing operations: fixed rate; Japan: Overnight call rate. Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. 2014F 2015F Exchange Rates (local currency units per USD) Current 3-Month Horizon 6-Month Horizon 12-Month Horizon Jan 30 Forward Forecast Forward Forecast Forward Forecast Asia ex-Japan China 6.106.116.106.116.086.126.05 India 62.7864.0762.0065.3964.0067.8665.00 South Korea 1085109110801096108011021100 Hong Kong 7.87.87.87.87.87.87.8 Taiwan 30.330.229.830.229.530.129.0 ASEAN Singapore 1.281.281.201.281.181.281.15 Malaysia 3.353.363.183.383.173.413.15 Thailand 32.933.132.533.333.033.733.0 Indonesia 12156124651200012700119001318011800 Philippines 45.445.842.345.841.246.040.0 Euro area* 1.371.371.381.371.401.371.40 Japan 102.3102.3103.0102.2107.0102.0110.0 * USD per Euro Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. 2014年1月30日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究10 Highlights of Recent Goldman Sachs Global Macro Research Asia ex Japan Questions for the 2014 Asia-Pacific economics outlook Jan 3,2014 Diverging fortunes—the emerging Asia outlook for 2014 Nov 21,2013 Asian current accounts could adjust faster than you might think Oct 31,2013 Tooling up to analyze the Asian economies Oct 24,2013 How emerging Asia reacts to higher US yields Sep 13,2013 A deep dive into regional financial flows: Possible impact of USFed tapering Sep 6,2013 Cyclicality of Asian financial markets—seen from our Global Leading Indicator Jun 3,2013 A redesigned MAP of emerging Asia data May 10,2013 Greater China A matter of trust: Q&A on a potential Chinese trust default Jan 21,2014 Tracking reforms in China: The balancing act of a credit slowdown Jan 13,2014 China: Gaining fewer pounds—improving exports allow for slower leverage growth Jan 10,2014 China: RMB internationalization to power ahead Dec 11,2013 China outlook for 2014 and beyond: Steady drive on a bumpier road Dec 6,2013 Transmission of interbank interest rates in China: Limited on bank loan rates Nov 25,2013 China's Third Plenum: Sweeping changes unveiled in ambitious reform agenda Nov 18,2013 How will financial reforms affect China’s risk-free rates Nov 8,2013 The China credit conundrum: Risks, paths and implications Jul 26,2013 Global Economics Paper: 218 - China: More efficient cities key to a brighter growth path May 21,2013 Korea Korea: Low inflation recovery bodes well for a rate cut Jan 24,2014 Korea: Changes in our view—rate cut possibly this Thursday Jan 6,2014 Korea: Less FX appreciation, more equity strength and a steeper curve Nov 15,2013 Korea: Near-term outlook for the balance of payments and the KRWOct 24,2013 Korea: Growth upgrade on improving global demand and investment pickups Oct 4,2013 Korea’s current account—headed for a 14-year-high surplus of 5% of GDP this year Sep 4,2013 India India—a step forward for the RBI’s policy framework Jan 27,2014 India: Structural reforms—a look back at 2013, and future prospects Dec 16,2013 India 2014 outlook: Focus on inflation, investment, and elections Nov 28,2013 India: What are the different measures of inflation saying Nov 7,2013 A primer on India’s 2014 elections Oct 18,2013 India - What are the policy options Aug 26,2013 ASEAN Thailand’s political turmoil and its economic consequences Jan 16,2014 Modeling the probability of Bank Indonesia’s next hike Dec 9,2013 Indonesia: The path to sustainability is still fraught with risks Oct 4,2013 ASEAN markets roiled—where do we go from here Aug 22,2013 Indianesia—elevated vulnerability in the rupee and rupiah Jul 16,2013 ASEAN’s half a trillion dollar infrastructure opportunity May 30,2013 Japan (this section is provided by our Japan Economics team based in Tokyo) Japan: Watch for the large gap between ‘Shunto’ wage hikes and macro basic wage growth Jan 24,2014 Japan: 2014 critical for Abenomics: Watch wages, exports, Cabinet approval ratings Jan 10,2014 Income outflows from Japan due to worsening terms of trade, a cause of sluggish wages Dec 6,2013 FY2014 Japanese economy: Nominal wages and foreign demand are key Nov 21,2013 'Visit Japan' project has strong potential but unlikely to be a decisive growth engine Nov 13,2013 2014年1月30日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究11 信息披露附录 分析师申明 本人,Goohoon Kwon, CFA,在此申明,本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了本人对上述公司或其证券的个人看法。

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我们,Andrew Tilton、Tushar Poddar、崔历、宋宇、Mark Tan、Chiwoong Lee、邓敏强、Jonathan Sequeira、魏静娴、Vishal Vaibhaw、Hui Ying Chan,在此申明,本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了我们的个人看法,没有受到公司业务或客户关系因素的影响。

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我 们的资产管理部门、自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策。

本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高盛销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论,或在本报告中讨论交易策略,其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券市场 价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件,该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反。

任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基本评 级,此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力。

我们以及我们的关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员,不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师,将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸, 担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手,或买卖上述证券或衍生工具。

在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的司法管辖区内,本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约。

本报告不构成个人投资建议,也没有考 虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需求。

客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,以及(若有必要)寻求专家的意见,包括税务意 见。

本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动。

过去的表现并不代表未来的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本 金。

外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响。

某些交易,包括牵涉期货、期权和其它衍生工具的交易,有很大的风险,因此并不适合所有投资者。

投资者可以向高盛销售代表取得或通过 取得当前的期权披露文件。

对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品,例如,期权差价结构产 品,其交易成本可能较高。

与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供。

在撰写研究报告期间,Goldman Sachs Australia全球投资研究部的职员可能参与本研究报告中所讨论证券的发行人组织的现场调研或会议。

在某些情况下,如 果视具体情形Goldman Sachs Australia认为恰当或合理,此类调研或会议的成本可能部分或全部由该证券发行人承担。

所有研究报告均以电子出版物的形式刊登在我们的内部客户网上并向所有客户同步提供。

并非所有研究内容都转发给我们的客户或者向第三方整合者提供,高 盛也并不对由第三方整合者转发的我们研究报告承担任何责任。

有关某只证券的所有研究报告或数据,请联络您的销售代表或登陆。

披露信息可以查阅或向研究合规部索取,地址是200 West Street,New York,NY 10282。

高盛版权所有 2014年 未经高盛集团公司事先书面同意,本材料的任何部分均不得(i)以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品,或(ii)再次分发。

高华证券信息披露 一般披露 本报告在中国由高华证券分发。

高华证券具备证券投资咨询业务资格。

本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用。

本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息,但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性,客户也不应该依赖该信息是 准确和完整的。

我们会适时地更新我们的研究,但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做。

除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外,绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的 时候不定期地出版。

高盛高华为高华证券的关联机构,从事投资银行业务。

高华证券、高盛高华及它们的关联机构与本报告中涉及的大部分公司保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关系。

我们的销售人员、交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略。

我 们的自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策。

2014年1月30日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究12 本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高华证券销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论,或在本报告中讨论交易策略,其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券 市场价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件,该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反。

任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基 本评级,此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力。

高华证券及其关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员,不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师,将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸,担 任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手,或买卖上述证券或衍生工具。

在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的地区,本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约。

本报告不构成个人投资建议,也没有考虑到个别 客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需求。

客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,以及(若有必要)寻求专家的意见,包括税务意见。

本报告 中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动。

过去的表现并不代表未来的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金。

外汇汇率 波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响。

某些交易,包括牵涉期货、期权和其它衍生工具的交易,有很大的风险,因此并不适合所有投资者。

投资者可以向高华销售代表取得或通过 取得当前的期权披露文件。

对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品,例如,期权差价结构产 品,其交易成本可能较高。

与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供。

北京高华证券有限责任公司版权所有 2014年 未经北京高华证券有限责任公司事先书面同意,本材料的任何部分均不得(i)以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品,或(ii)再次分发。

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