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研究报告:国泰君安国际-今晨焦点-140130

研报作者: 来自:国泰君安国际 时间:2014-01-30 10:29:45
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標題 Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 10 Research Department Morning Research Focus 30 January 2014 Table of Contents 目录 News Focus 新闻焦点 Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点 Lenovo (00992 HK): Acquired Google (GOOGUS)’s Handset Business Motorola 联想集团(00992 HK):收购谷歌(GOOGUS)的手机业务摩托罗拉 Latest Reports 最新报告摘要 Company Name 公司名称 Code 代码 标题 TP 目标价 Chg 变动 Rating 评级 Chg 变动 EPSEst. Change 盈利预测 是否改变 Shenzhen Expressway 00548 HK 13.8 km of Meiguan Expressway Turned Free, Received Compensation of RMB2.7 billion, Positive HK$4.32 ↑ Buy -- Y 深高速00548 HK 梅观高速有13.8公里转为免收费, 获补偿27亿元,利好 HK$4.32 ↑买入--是 Lianhua 00908 HKIssuance of Profit Warning HK$5.24 ↓ Neutral -- Y 联华超市00908 HK发布盈利警告HK$5.24 ↓中性--是 China Longyuan Power 00916 HKMaintain "Neutral" HK$8.45 ↑ Neutral -- Y 龙源电力00916 HK维持“中性” HK$8.45 ↑中性--是 Automobile Sector Sector Report: Severe Air Pollution May Boost NEVs Sales -- Outperform N 汽车行业 行业报告:严重的空气污染将提高 新能源汽车销售 --跑赢大市 否 BYDCorporation Benefit from the Surge of NEV Sales, Upgrade to “Accumulate” HK$46.00 ↑ Accumulate ↑ Y 比亚迪股份 受益于新能源汽车销售大幅增长, 上调到“收集” HK$46.00 ↑收集↑是 Appendices:Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附:行业和公司焦点,最新报告摘要中文版。

Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 10 HSIPerformance HSCEIPerformance 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg News Focus (Shirley Gu) 新闻焦点(古乔艺) At the policy meeting during Jan 28-29, the U.S. Fed decided to accelerate the taper by further reducing the purchase of both MBS and long-term bond government bond by US$5bn since Feb 2014. Policy makers continued to state that 1) 0%-0.25% interest rate could be maintained as long as inflation outlook keeps stable even after unemployment rate declines to below the threshold of 6.5%.2) the purchase will be further cut back is the economy improves as expected. The Fed’s move is in line with market expectations. Despite less positive surprises from U.S. economic data during the past few days, particularly the disappointed nonfarm payrolls in Dec, the U.S. economic recovery is still overall staying on track and the improvement of unemployment rate has speeded up. Therefore, the Fed has maintained its positive economic assessment and hence decided to further pull back its monetary stimulus. We expect the taper itself to bring limited negative impact to the liquidity in HK, given it is moderate as well as progressive, in addition with expectations of RMB’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar. However, the risks of money outflows could persist in certain emerging countries amid the acceleration of QE’s pullback, even after several countries unexpectedly announced rate hike trying to stabilize their local currencies in recent 2-3 days, which therefore could continue to bring volatilities to HK market. 1月28-29日议息会议上,美联储决定加快QE退出,自今年2月份起进一步削减抵押贷款证券和长期国债的购买规模各50亿美元。

决策层继续表明:1)即使失业率降至6.5%的门槛,只要通胀前景稳定,0%-0.25%利率将维持;2)如果经济如预期改善,购买规 模将进一步缩减。

美联储行动符合市场预期。

尽管最近美国经济数据正面惊喜减少,尤其是12月份令人失望的非农数据,但美国经济复苏总体仍在轨 道上,并且失业率改善加速。

因此,美联储维持其正面的经济评估,进而决定进一步减量货币刺激。

我们预期QE减量本身对香港市 场流动性的负面影响有限,因为这是温和并且渐进的,同时预期人民币兑美元保持升值。

然而,在QE退出加速的背景下,尽管最近 2-3天多个国家意外宣布加息试图稳定本币,部分新兴国家的资金外流风险可能持续,因此这将继续给港股带来波动。

Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 10 Industry and Company Focus Lenovo (00992 HK): Acquired Google (GOOGUS)’s Handset Business Motorola Analyst: Ricky Lai What happened: Lenovo acquired Google’s handset business Motorola with a consideration of US$2.91 billion. Comments and Views: We think the acquisition price is fair with a PB ratio of 2.1. Lenovo ranked the fifth in global smartphone market share in 2013. We expect Lenovo could further improve its smartphone ranking and market share after the acquisitions. Lenovo is expected to combine the newly acquired Motorola unit with the present smartphone production plant to benefit from economies of scale effect. Lenovo is expected to improve its market share ranking thanks to the launch of 4G network service in China, overseas expansion strategy and the launch of innovative products. The newly established Wuhan factory is expected to improve production capacity for business development. We will revise upwards smartphone shipment estimations and earnings forecasts accordingly. Investment suggestion: The Company’s present investment rating is “Buy” with the TP of HK$10.20. We will revise upwards the TP due to earning adjustments. Latest Reports Shenzhen Expressway (00548 HK): 13.8 km of Meiguan Expressway Turned Free, Received Compensation of RMB2.7 billion, Positive Rating: Buy 6-18m TP: HK$4.32 Analyst: Gary Wong Report Date: 2014-01-29 Summary Shenzhen Expressway (00548 HK) reached an agreement with the Shenzhen Government to allow Meilin to Guanlan section of Meiguan Expressway to become free starting 1 April 2014, for a total compensation of RMB2.7 billion. According to the terms, RMB800 million shall be payable before 30 April 2014, RMB800 million will be payable before 31 August 2015, and the remaining balance plus accrued interest will be payable before 31 December 2016. The compensation is RMB500 million higher than our expectation. We expect core net profit to decrease by 8.7% and 6.9% respectively for FY14 and FY15, while net gearing should substantially decrease by 12 ppts and 8.6 ppts respectively for FY14 and FY15 compared with original estimates before the deal. The deal removed long term uncertainty for the Company and much strengthened the Company’s balance sheet and ability to increase dividends. We think the deal is positive overall. Lower core EPS estimates of FY14-15 by 9.8% and 6.5%, respectively, to RMB0.340 and RMB0.402. Current valuation is at 7.7x/7.9x/6.5x FY13/14/15 PER (based on core profit), and is at 30% discount to peers. Raise the TP to HKD4.32, representing 9.5x/9.8x/8.0x FY13/14/15 PER (based on core profit) and 0.8x FY14 NAV. Maintain “Buy”. Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 10 Lianhua (00980 HK): Issuance of Profit Warning Rating: Neutral 6-18m TP: HK$5.24 Analyst: Frank Xu Report Date: 2014-01-29 Summary Issuance of profit warning. Lianhua issued a profit warning that the Company’s net profit for FY13 is expected to significantly decrease as compared to that of FY12. Main reasons of such decrease in net profit include intense competition in the retail industry in the context of economic growth slowdown, and rigid increase in costs and expenses. Structural issues remain unchanged. In our view, several structural issues of Lianhua remain unchanged and will continue to negatively impact its margins and therefore its earnings. We believe these structural issues are likely to remain in place in the short term, although the retail industry is expected to have a favourable environment. Cautiously positive on prospects for Lianhua. Lianhua has been actively fine-tuning its merchandise strategy and retail network. Moreover, after Lianhua’s new Shanghai logistic centre switched to full mode in 1H14, the Company will then have the option to renegotiate surcharges with suppliers. For Lianhua, however, the harvest season has yet to come. Maintain “Neutral” based on potential of stock price advance and current valuation. Though the profit of FY13 is expected to be significantly lower than that of FY12 as per the profit warning, we anticipate Lianhua’s future will be better than its past on the back of its ongoing plan to accelerate the pace of network adjustment and transformation and benefit from Shanghai SOE reform. We believe the current stock price is fairly valued. We fine-tune Lianhua’s EPS forecasts for FY13-15 to be RMB 0.251,0.299 and 0.344, respectively. New TP translates to 13.5x FY14 PE and 1.2x FY14 PBR. China Longyuan Power (00916 HK): Maintain "Neutral" Rating: Neutral 6-18m TP: HK$8.45 Analyst: Leo Wu Report Date: 2014-01-29 Summary Wind power generation of Longyuan Power in Dec.2013 was below expectation. Wind power generation in Dec. was only up by 6.5% yoy, which was mainly due to the weak wind resource, according to the Company. The wind utilisation hours in Dec. is estimated to be roughly 183, down 11.6% yoy, while for the whole year it is estimated to be 2,168, up 183 or 9.2% yoy. 2013 newly added wind capacity was below expectation. Longyuan Power only added 1,366.2MW wind capacity in 2013, far below its original guidance of 1.6-2GW as well as its revised guidance of 1.5GW. The slow construction progress of local power grid might be the main reason for the low capacity growth, which was beyond the control of the Company. 2014 outlook: Wind power capacity installation might speed up in 2014. We expect Longyuan Power may be able to accelerate its wind capacity installation in 2014 and 2015 by adding 1.5GW and 1.7GW. Wind curtailment ratio is expected to further improve from approximately 9.9% in 2013 to 7% and 5% in 2014 and 2015. Maintain "Neutral" rating and slightly revise up TP to HK$8.45. Due to the lower than expected capacity increase, we cut the wind capacity increase assumption in 2014-15. We cut the net profit estimates for FY13/14/15 by 1.8%/5.2%/9.1%. The last closing price is HK$9.46, representing 20.4x/15.8x/13.4x FY13/14/15 PER, which we think is not attractive. Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 10 Sector Report: Automobile Sector: Severe Air Pollution May Boost NEVs Sales Rating: Outperform 6-18m TP: n.a. Analyst: Harry Chen Report Date: 2014-01-29 Summary The adoption of new energy vehicles (“NEVs”) in China has been much slower than that of developed countries. The sales of NEVs, including hybrid electric vehicles (“HEVs”), increased 41.2% YoY to 32,700 units, accounting for 0.1% of total vehicle sales in China in 2013. The penetration of NEVs in China was much lower than that of U.S. and Japan, which were 3.4% and 16.0%, respectively. Even though the development of NEVs in China started up at about the time as that of the U.S., the adoption of NEVs in China has been much slower than that of the U.S., mainly due to local protectionism and lack of charging facilities. NEV sales are expected to surge in China during 2014 and 2015. The new government policies for NEVs may reduce the effect of local protectionism, as well as ease the financial pressure for local government. In addition, severe air pollution in large cities is expected to push local government to act much quicker to adopt NEVs. Therefore, the promotion plans for 2013-2015 of the pilot cities in the second wave of 10-city 1000-NEVProgram are nearly 2.7x that of the first wave. We expect EVs (electric vehicles, including electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles) sales to grow rapidly to 28,000 units and 48,000 units in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Maintain “Outperform” rating for automobile sector and favour NEV makers. Even though vehicle sales growth of China in 2014 is expected to slow down to 12% YoY, the level of prosperity is expected to remain high. Therefore, we maintain “Outperform” rating for automobile sector. We favour NEV makers since they may benefit from rapid growth of NEV sales. BYDCorporation (01211 HK): Benefit from the Surge of NEVSales, Upgrade to “Accumulate” Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$46.00 Analyst: Harry Chen Report Date: 2014-01-29 Summary BYD achieved its 2013 vehicle sales target. Vehicle sales of BYD increased 11% YoY to 507,000 units, completing its 2013 sales target. Among these vehicle sales, sales of 3-series increased 14% YoY, faster than that of 0-series and 6-series, due to the launch of Su Rui. The sales of Si Rui and S6 were worse than expected due to severe competition from JV in B-class sedan and SUV segment. We expect vehicle sales of BYD to increase 10% YoY in 2014, very close to its sales target for 2014. NEV sales of BYD are expected to increase rapidly during 2014 and 2015. BYD sold 3,600 units of NEVs in 2013, down 3% YoY, much worse than its sales target of 8,000 in 2013. Severe air pollution is expected to push the government to adopt NEVs much quicker. In addition, BYD actively established a JV with local government to produce NEVs. Therefore, NEV sales of BYD are expected to increase to 8,100 units and 12,000 units during 2014 and 2015, respectively. Upgrade to “Accumulate”. The current valuation of BYD is much higher than that of its peers in terms of PE valuation but it is considered reasonably priced in terms of PB valuation. We think BYD should deserve higher valuation due to its leading position in electric bus and taxi market. Therefore, we upgrade its rating to “Accumulate” and revise up its TP to HKD46.00, representing 60x 14PE,47x 15PE,2.7x 14PB and 2.4x 15PB. Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 10 Chinese Translation中文翻译 行业和公司焦点 联想集团(00992 HK):收购谷歌(GOOGUS)的手机业务摩托罗拉 分析员:黎柏坚 事件描述:联想收购谷歌的手机业务摩托罗拉,代价为29.1亿美元。

观点评论:收购定价為2.1倍PB,我们认为是合理。

联想在2013年全球智能手机市场份额排名第五。

我们期望联想在收购后,可进一步改善其智能手机的排名和市场份额。

联想新收购的摩托罗拉將可结合目 前的智能手机生产线,产生经济规模效应。

我们相信联想可受惠于國内4G網絡服務的推出、海外拓展的 策略及推出更多創新産品。

武漢剛完成的新廠房將可提升生産力,以支援公司拓展業務的策略。

我们將上 調手機出貨量及盈利的预测。

投资建议:公司现在的投资评级为“买入”及目标价为10.20港元。

因调整盈利的预测,我们将上调目标价。

最新报告 深高速(00548 HK):梅观高速有13.8公里转为免收费,获补偿27亿元,利好 评级:买 入6-18m目标价: HK$4.32 分析员:黄家玮报告日期: 2014-01-29 报告摘要 深高速(00548 HK)与深圳市政府一致同意将梅观高速默林至观澜段转为免费路段,从2014年4月1日起生效。

深圳市 政府将向公司补偿27亿元。

根据协议,2014年4月30日前将支付8亿元,2015年8月31日前将支付8亿元,剩余的 款项加应计利息将于2016年12月31日前支付。

我们认为补偿额高于预期5亿元。

我们预计14及15年核心盈利将会较交易前的预计数字跌8.7%及6.9%,而净债务 比率则会较交易前的预计数字减低12个百份点及8.6个百份点。

该交易清除了长远的不确定因素,并大大提高公司的 财政状况及派息能力。

我们认为交易影响整体正面。

调低14-15年每股核心盈利预测9.8%及6.5%至0.340元及0.402元。

公司现时估值为7.7倍/7.9倍/6.5倍的预期市 盈率(以核心盈利计),较同业折让30%。

调高其目标价至4.32港元,相当于9.5倍/9.8倍/8.0倍的13/14/15年预期市盈 率(以核心盈利计),及0.8倍的14年每股估值。

维持“买入”评级。

Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 10 联华超市(00980 HK):发布盈利警告 评级:中 性6-18m目标价: HK$5.24 分析员:许智程报告日期: 2014-01-29 报告摘要 发布盈利警告。

联华发布盈利警告,预计公司13财年净利将显著低于12财年。

盈利警告的主要原因包括在经济增 长放缓背景下零售行业竞争的加剧,以及成本与费用的刚性上涨。

结构性问题依然存在。

我们认为联华的一些结构性因素未改变,并且将持续对盈利带来负面作用,这些结构性问题在 未来短期内仍将存在,尽管零售业预计将处于利好的大环境中。

对联华前景谨慎乐观。

联华正积极地调整其经营策略与零售网点。

同时,在其位于上海的新物流中心于14年上半年 全面投入使用后,公司可以与其供应商重新制定征收的费用。

对于联华而言,收获的季节尚未来到。

根据股价上升空间以及目前估值,维持投资评级“中性”。

虽然联华13财年业绩将显著低于12财年,但我们预计在 公司加速门店调整以及上海地区国企改革的背景下,其未来将好于过去,目前公司估值较为公允,我们预计13至15 财年每股盈利将分别为人民币0.251、0.299及0.344元。

新目标价对应13.5倍14年预测市盈率或1.2倍14年市净率。

龙源电力(00916 HK):维持“中性” 评级:中 性6-18m目标价: HK$8.45 分析员:吴逸超报告日期: 2014-01-29 报告摘要 2013年12月龙源电力风电发电量低于预期。

12月风电发电量同比仅增6.5%,公司表示主要由于较差的风资源。

12 月风电利用小时估算为183小时,同比降11.6%,全年估计为2,168小时,同比增183或9.2%。

2013年新增风电装机数低于预期。

龙源电力于2013年仅增加了1,366.2兆瓦风电装机,远低于其原1.6-2吉瓦目标, 也低于修正后的1.5吉瓦目标。

我们认为地方接入电网较慢的建设速度可能继续成为装机增速偏低的主要原因,而该 原因不受公司控制。

2014展望:2014年风电装机或提速。

我们预计龙源电力于2014和2015年或可加速其风电新装机量至1.5吉瓦和1.7 吉瓦。

限电率预计由2013年的9.9%进一步改善至2014及2015的7%和5%。

维持“中性”并略微提高目标价至8.45港元。

由于低于预期的2013年风电装机量,我们下调了2014和2015年的新 增风电装机假设。

因此,我们将13/14/15财年的净利润下调了1.8%/5.2%/9.1%。

最新收市价为9.46港元,相当于 20.4倍/15.8倍/13.4倍的13/14/15财年市盈率,我们认为并不吸引。

行业报告:汽车行业:严重的空气污染将提高新能源汽车销售 评级:跑赢大市6-18m目标价: HK$4.40 分析员:陈欢瑜报告日期: 2014-01-29 报告摘要 中国新能源汽车的推广速度慢于发达国家。

包括混合动力汽车在内的新能源汽车在中国的销售为3.27万辆,同比增长 37.9%,渗透率为0.1%,远低于美国和日本的3.4%和16.0%。

中国的新能源汽车的起步与美国基本同步,但是推广 速度远慢于美国。

中国政府对新能源汽车的补贴很高,但是推广却受到地方保护主义和基础设施的建设滞后的影响而 步伐缓慢。

预计2014年和2015年的新能源汽车在中国将有快速的增长。

新推出的新能源政策抵制了部分的地方保护主义和减少 当地政府的财政负担。

严重的空气污染逼使各地政府更加积极的推广新能源汽车的应用,所以第二轮的“十城千辆” 的示范城市定的目标比第一轮的高出2.7倍。

我们预计2014年和2015年中国电动车(包含纯电动和插电式混合动力) 的销量将大幅提高到2.8万和4.8万辆。

Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 10 我们维持行业“跑赢大市”评级,看好新能源汽车制造商。

虽然2014年的汽车销售增长将放缓,但是景气度仍然维 持,因此我们维持行业“跑赢大市”的评级。

我们看好新能源汽车制造商,因为它们将受益于新能源汽车的大幅增长。

比亚迪股份(01211 HK):受益于新能源汽车销售大幅增长,上调到“收集” 评级:收 集6-18m目标价: HK$46.00 分析员:陈欢瑜报告日期: 2014-01-29 报告摘要 比亚迪完成其2013年的汽车销售目标。

比亚迪的汽车销售同比增长11%到50.7万辆,完成了公司2013年的销售目 标。

其中比亚迪的3系列的销售同比增长14%,快于0系和6系,主要是因为速锐的推出,而思锐和S6的销售则不 理想,主要是因为自主品牌的B级轿车和SUV的销售受到合资品牌的严重挤压。

我们预计公司2014年的汽车销售应 该会同比增长10%左右,贴近公司2014年的销售目标。

比亚迪受惠于政府采购和网络拓展,新能源汽车销售在2014年和2015年快速增长。

比亚迪在2013年销售3,600辆 新能源汽车,同比下滑3%,远低于其8,000辆的销售目标。

由于大气污染严重,地方政府将更加积极推广新能源汽 车,同时公司与各地政府成立合资工厂生产新能源汽车,我们相信公司的新能源汽车销售将在2014年和2015年快速 增长到8,100和12,000辆。

上调评级到“收集”。

以PE估值,公司现在的估值远高于同业,但是以PB估值,公司的估值则处于比较合理水平。

我们认为公司作为行业的龙头,在电动公交和出租车领域具有很强的竞争力,应该值更高估值,因此上调公司评级到 “收集”,上调目标价到46.00港元,相当于60倍14年PE、47倍15年PE、2.8倍14年PB和2.6倍15年PB。

Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 10 Research Department研究部 Grace Liu刘 谷 Head of Research, Market strategy, Petrochemicals 主管, 市场策略、石化 liugu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976698 / (852) 25097516 Ray Zhao赵 睿Conglomerate, E-Commerce综合、电子商务zhaorui@gtjas.com (86755) 23976755 Harry Chen陈欢瑜 Aviation, Automobiles & Components 航空、汽车chenhuanyu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976683 Gary Wong黄家玮Toll Roads, Infrastructure公路、基建gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092616 Leo Wu吴逸超Coal, Electricity煤炭、电力wuyichao@gtjas.com (86755) 23976871 Johnson Sun孙凤强Health care医药johnson.sun@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097589 Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Small&Mid cap消费(酒店)、中小型股noah.hudson@gtjas.com (86755) 23976684 Sunny Kwok郭日升 Consumer (Food & Beverage, Household products) 消费(食品饮料、日用品) sunny.kwok@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092642 Frank Xu许智程Consumer (Retailing)消费(零售) xuzhicheng@gtjas.com (86755) 23976725 Jason Song宋然Shipping & Logistics, Ports航运物流、港口jason.song@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097768 Shirley Gu古乔艺Market strategy市场策略guqiaoyi@gtjas.com (86755) 23976718 Square Chui徐惠芳Futures期货square.chui@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092629 Kevin Guo郭勇 Nonferrous Metals, Precious Metals 有色金属、贵金属kevin.guo@gtjas.com (86755) 23976671 Donald Yu余立峰Property房地产yulifeng011680@gtjas.com (86755) 23976686 Peter Sheng盛骅Clean energy, Electric equipment清洁能源、电力设备shenghua011681@gtjas.com (86755) 23976675 Ricky Lai黎柏坚Telecommunications, Internet电信、互联网ricky.lai@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092603 Dayton Wang王庆鲁Insurance保险wangqinglu010421@gtjas.com (86755) 23976680 Angus Chan陈庆Machinery,Construction Materials机械、建材angus.chan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092665 Richard Cao曹柱Banking银行caozhu013592@gtjas.com (86755) 23976870 Louis Chan陈少威Consumer (Apparel)消费(服装) louis.chan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095310 Ivan Zhou周一帆Research assistant研究助理zhouyifan013593@gtjas.com (86755) 23976685 Anki Lam林婉琋Research assistant研究助理anki.lam@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092632 Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 10 Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited-H shares (01812) and China City Railway Transportation Technology Holdings Company Limited (01522), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships within the preceding 12 months for Huaneng Power (00902)/ Active Group (01096)/ China Dredging (00871)/ Billion (02299)/ China Shipping Container Lines Co. Ltd. - H Shares(02866)/ China Hangqiao Group Limited(01378)/ China U-Ton Holdings Ltd.(08232)/CWGroup Holdings Ltd. (01322) / China ITS (Holdings) Co., Ltd.(01900)/ Merry Garden Holdings Ltd. (01237)/ Xiezhong International Holdings Limited(03663)/ China All Access Holdings Ltd. (00633)/ China Int'l Marine Containers (Group) Co., Ltd. (02039)/ CECEPCostin New Material Group Limited (02228) and Binhai Investment (08035) mentioned in this Research Report. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 2014 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza,181 Queens’ Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website:

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