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联华超市研究报告:国泰君安国际-联华超市-0980.HK-发布盈利警告-140129

研报作者:许智程 来自:国泰君安国际 时间:2014-01-30 09:52:28
  • 股票名称
    联华超市
  • 股票代码
    0980.HK
  • 研报类型
    (PDF)
  • 发布者
    HH***11
  • 研报出处
    国泰君安国际
  • 研报页数
    7 页
  • 推荐评级
    中性
  • 研报大小
    311 KB
研究报告内容

G TJ A R es ea rc h 国泰 君安 研究 Li an hu a 联华超市 ( 00 98 0 H K ) C om pa ny R ep or t See the last page for disclaimer of 7 Company Report: Lianhua (00980 HK) Frank Xu许智程 公司报告:联华超市(00980 HK) +8675523976725 xuzhicheng@gtjas.com 29 January 2014 Issuance of Profit Warning 发布盈利警告 Issuance of profit warning. Lianhua issued a profit warning that the Company’s net profit for FY13 is expected to significantly decrease as compared to that of FY12. Main reasons of such decrease in net profit include intense competition in the retail industry in the context of economic growth slowdown, and rigid increase in costs and expenses. Structural issues remain unchanged. In our view, several structural issues of Lianhua remain unchanged and will continue to negatively impact its margins and therefore its earnings. We believe these structural issues are likely to remain in place in the short term, although the retail industry is expected to have a favourable environment. Cautiously positive on prospects for Lianhua. Lianhua has been actively fine-tuning its merchandise strategy and retail network. Moreover, after Lianhua’s new Shanghai logistic centre switched to full mode in 1H14, the Company will then have the option to renegotiate surcharges with suppliers. For Lianhua, however, the harvest season has yet to come. Maintain “Neutral” based on potential of stock price advance and current valuation. Though the profit of FY13 is expected to be significantly lower than that of FY12 as per the profit warning, we anticipate Lianhua’s future will be better than its past on the back of its ongoing plan to accelerate the pace of network adjustment and transformation and benefit from Shanghai SOE reform. We believe the current stock price is fairly valued. We fine-tune Lianhua’s EPS forecasts for FY13-15 to be RMB 0.251,0.299 and 0.344, respectively. New TP translates to 13.5x FY14 PE and 1.2x FY14 PBR. 发布盈利警告。

联华发布盈利警告,预计公司13财年净利将显著低于12财年。

盈利警告 的主要原因包括在经济增长放缓背景下零售行业竞争的加剧,以及成本与费用的刚性上涨。

结构性问题依然存在。

我们认为联华的一些结构性因素未改变,并且将持续对盈利带来负 面作用,这些结构性问题在未来短期内仍将存在,尽管零售业预计将处于利好的大环境中。

对联华前景谨慎乐观。

联华正积极地调整其经营策略与零售网点。

同时,在其位于上海的 新物流中心于14年上半年全面投入使用后,公司可以与其供应商重新制定征收的费用。

对 于联华而言,收获的季节尚未来到。

根据股价上升空间以及目前估值,维持投资评级“中性”。

虽然联华13财年业绩将显著低 于12财年,但我们预计在公司加速门店调整以及上海地区国企改革的背景下,其未来将好 于过去,目前公司估值较为公允,我们预计13至15财年每股盈利将分别为人民币0.251、 0.299及0.344元。

新目标价对应13.5倍14年预测市盈率或1.2倍14年市净率。

Rating: Neutral Maintained 评级:中性(维持) 6-18m TP目标价: HK$5.24 Revised from原目标价: HK$6.55 Share price股价:HK$4.870 Stock performance 股价表现 Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年 Abs.% 绝对变动% (20.8) (4.7) (34.2) Rel.% to HS index 相对恒指变动% (15.3) (1.1) (27.0) Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价(港元) 5.75.65.3 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan international Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Net Profit 股东净利 EPS 每股净利 EPS 每股净利变动 PER 市盈率 BPS 每股净资产 PBR 市净率 DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2011A 27,5206270.5600.77.12.9601.30.1804.620.2 2012A 28,9883400.304 (45.8) 12.93.0401.30.2005.110.1 2013F 31,1822810.251 (17.3) 15.13.1051.20.0832.28.2 2014F 33,8543350.29919.112.73.3091.10.0992.69.3 2015F 36,8393850.34414.811.13.5421.10.1133.010.0 Shares in issue (m)总股数(m) 1119.6 Major shareholder大股东Friendship Group友谊集团34.0% Market cap. (HK$ m)市值(HK$ m) 5,452.5 Free float (%)自由流通比率(%) 44.8% 3 month average vol.3个月平均成交股数(‘000) 2,631.1 FY14 Net gearing (%) FY13净负债/股东资金(%) Net cash 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低8.210 / 3.620 FY14 NBV per share每股净资产(HK$) 4.3 Source︰the Company, Guotai Junan international. -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 % of return 00980 HKHSIIndex 29 Ja nu ar y 20 14 Li an hu a 联华超市 ( 00 98 0 H K ) C om pa ny R ep or t See the last page for disclaimer of 7 Issuance of profit warning, FY13 results will be disappointing. On 28th Jan 2014, Lianhua issued a profit warning that the Company’s net profit for FY13 is expected to significantly decrease as compared to that of FY12. Main reasons of such decrease in net profit include intense competition in the retail industry in the context of economic growth slowdown, and rigid increase in costs and expenses. Lianhua’s overall operating condition in FY13 was healthier than that in FY12. SSS growth of the Company in 4Q13 was around 2%, though lower than 1H13’s 3.72%, it was still healthy and consequently the FY13 SSS growth was around 3%, similar to CPI of 2.6% in 2013, which was an improvement when compared with FY12, that its SSS growth of -0.72% was significantly lagged behind the CPI of 2.6%. Moreover, net store closures in FY13 narrowed in comparison to the situation in FY12 (452 net store closures in FY12, then narrowed down to 61 in 1H13, for example). We expect the SSS growth of Lianhua in the short term will creep up a bit on higher CPI anticipation and with the Company’s effort in reversing the declining trend of all three business segments by leveraging its advantageous resources, plus with a relatively low base. Structural issues remain unchanged. In our view, several structural issues of Lianhua remain unchanged and will continue to negatively impact its margins and therefore its earnings. The issues include: 1) Its massive but inattentive retail network will take more time and effort to turn around; 2) Inevitable foot traffic drop that largely to do with rapid development of E-commerce channel and intensified competition; 3) Longer and heavier promotional campaigns as a way to resist from competitions; 4) Lianhua’s cost control ability isn’t outstanding amongst peers, its labour and rental cost pressure could continue to mount despite of a weaker top-line growth anticipation; 5) Though it has strong presence in Shanghai, however Lianhua lacks of absolute market dominant power over suppliers. We believe these structural issues are likely to remain in place in the short term though the retail industry is expected to have a favourable environment. Cautiously positive on prospects for Lianhua. Though Lianhua isn’t an outstanding operator yet within the industry by most of the metrics, structural issues in the short term will continue to influence its merchandise capacity and consequently, erode its results. However, Lianhua has been actively tuning its merchandise strategy and retail network. For example, as part of the network re-organising plan, Lianhua scaled back its expansion target, which could ease starting load cost and provide support to its operating margin. Moreover, after Lianhua’s new Shanghai logistic centre switched to full mode in 1H14, the Company will then have the option to renegotiate surcharges with suppliers and is expected to at least further strengthen its operating Figure: Lianhua’s turnover & growth. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan international. Figure: Lianhua’s gross profit & GPM. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan international. Figure: Lianhua’s operating profit & OPM. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan international. Figure: Lianhua’s net profit & NPM. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan international. 27,520.2 28,987.5 31,181.8 33,854.3 36,839.5 6.2% 5.3% 7.6% 8.6% 8.8% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 FY11AFY12AFY13FFY14FFY15F = Turnover(Leftaxis,RMBMil) Growth(Rightaxis,%) 3,956.4 3,929.1 4,381.0 4,763.3 5,194.4 14.4% 13.6% 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% 13.0% 15.0% 17.0% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 FY11AFY12AFY13FFY14FFY15F Grossprofit(Leftaxis,RMBMil) GPM(Rightaxis,%) 829.4 512.5 401.2 480.0 546.5 3.0% 1.8% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 FY11AFY12AFY13FFY14FFY15F Operatingprofit(Leftaxis,RMBMil) OPM(Rightaxis,%) 713.7 452.2 330.7 394.0 452.5 2.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 FY11AFY12AFY13FFY14FFY15F Netprofit(Leftaxis,RMBMil) Growth(Rightaxis,%) 29 Ja nu ar y 20 14 Li an hu a 联华超市 ( 00 98 0 H K ) C om pa ny R ep or t See the last page for disclaimer of 7 system by centralising distribution function of more stores. For Lianhua, however, the harvest season has yet to come. Maintain “Neutral” based on potential of stock price advance and current valuation. The stock price of Lianhua was volatile during the past several months, Though the profit of FY13 is expected to be significant lower than that of FY12 as per the profit warning, we anticipate Lianhua’s future will be better than its past on the back of ongoing plan to accelerate the pace of network adjustment and transformation and benefit from Shanghai SOE reform, we believe the current stock price is fairly valued, hence maintain the investment rating “Neutral”. we fine-tune Lianhua’s EPS forecasts for FY13-15 to be RMB 0.251,0.299 and 0.344 from previously RMB 0.314,0.341 and 0.372 respectively, change target price to HK$ 5.24, which translates to 13.5x FY14 PE and 1.2x FY14 PBR. Figure: Lianhua’s turnover by business segment. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan international. Appendix: Peers Comparison. Company Stock Code Currency Last price PEPBROE(%) D/Y(%) Market Cap 12A 13F 14F 15F 12A 13F 14F 15F 14F 14FHKD mil Sun Art Retail Group Ltd 6808 HKHKD 10.30 33.5 27.3 24.0 20.7 4.7 4.1 3.6 3.3 16.1 1.5 97,305 Lianhua Supermarket Hldgs -H 980 HKHKD 4.87 13.2 14.0 12.4 9.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 9.2 3.1 5,206 Wumart Stores Inc-H 1025 HKHKD 10.42 18.0 16.7 15.3 12.8 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.2 16.9 3.0 13,095 Beijing Jingkelong Co Ltd-H 814 HKHKD 2.38 7.7 7.7 5.9 7.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 5.3 4.8 973 Simple Average 6.99 18.1 16.4 14.4 12.5 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 11.9 3.1 29,145 Weighted Average 10.00 30.7 25.4 22.3 19.2 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.0 15.8 1.8 82,929 Intime Retail Group Co Ltd 1833 HKHKD 7.60 12.6 11.3 10.0 9.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 13.1 3.7 15,631 Parkson Retail Group Ltd 3368 HKHKD 2.32 6.2 9.5 9.2 8.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 8.8 4.8 6,454 Golden Eagle Retail Group 3308 HKHKD 10.24 13.2 12.3 11.3 10.1 3.0 2.5 2.2 1.9 20.3 2.6 18,937 Maoye International Hldgs 848 HKHKD 1.23 6.7 6.8 6.0 5.4 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 13.0 3.9 6,372 Shirble Department Stores 312 HKHKD 0.35 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 836 Springland International Hol 1700 HKHKD 3.81 11.9 10.3 9.3 8.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 15.4 5.1 9,517 Lifestyle Intl Hldgs Ltd 1212 HKHKD 13.86 11.2 11.1 10.5 9.8 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 18.5 3.9 22,616 New World Dept Store China 825 HKHKD 4.05 11.3 11.1 10.0 9.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 10.2 4.6 6,778 Simple Average 5.43 10.5 10.3 9.5 8.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 14.2 4.1 10,893 Weighted Average 8.18 11.2 10.8 9.9 9.0 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 15.7 3.8 15,307 Beijing Hualian Hypermarke-A 600361 CHCNY 4.16 52.0 57.0 46.2 30.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 n.a. 1.9 2.1 3,594 New Huadu Supercenter Co L-A 002264 CHCNY 7.95 26.5 n.a.41.2 29.7 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.0 0.8 6,075 Better Life Commercial Cha-A 002251 CHCNY 14.01 20.2 19.9 16.2 13.4 3.5 2.8 2.5 2.2 16.3 2.9 10,864 Renrenle Commercial Group-A 002336 CHCNY 9.27 n.a.85.0 61.4 40.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 4,821 Yonghui Superstores Co Ltd-A 601933 CHCNY 14.70 45.2 31.1 24.4 20.3 5.1 2.5 2.3 2.0 15.3 0.9 30,733 Dalian Yi Qiao Marine Seed-A 002447 CHCNY 19.32 32.2 23.5 16.7 11.8 5.5 4.5 3.6 2.8 20.4 n.a. 6,842 Simple Average 11.57 35.2 43.3 34.3 24.4 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.3 9.7 1.6 10,488 Weighted Average 13.41 34.6 30.9 27.8 21.2 4.2 2.7 2.4 2.1 13.0 1.3 18,790 Rainbow Department Store-A 002419 CHCNY 10.68 14.6 13.2 11.4 10.3 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4 14.4 3.1 11,091 Chongqing Department Store-A 600729 CHCNY 21.96 11.7 10.3 8.7 7.3 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.4 19.0 0.9 11,442 Hefei Department Store Grp-A 000417 CHCNY 5.65 10.8 10.1 9.1 7.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.1 15.1 2.0 5,720 17,65618,88319,831 21,27322,864 10,40110,572 11,716 13,076 14,5821,866 1,963 1,978 2,119 2,313 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 11A 12A 13F 14F 15F RMBMillion Convenience Store Supermarket Hypermarket 29 Ja nu ar y 20 14 Li an hu a 联华超市 ( 00 98 0 H K ) C om pa ny R ep or t See the last page for disclaimer of 7 Wuhan Department Store Grp-A 000501 CHCNY 12.00 15.2 13.2 10.9 9.1 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.5 16.9 0.0 7,759 Beijing Wangfujing Dept St-A 600859 CHCNY 16.57 11.4 10.5 9.5 8.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 11.4 1.4 9,951 Hunan Friendship & Apollo -A 002277 CHCNY 13.00 19.3 16.9 14.0 12.1 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.0 17.4 1.5 9,478 Simple Average 13.31 13.8 12.4 10.6 9.1 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4 15.7 1.5 9,240 Weighted Average 14.13 13.9 12.4 10.6 9.2 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.4 15.7 1.5 9,663 Lawson Inc 2651 JPJPY 7,510.00 30.1 22.2 20.6 19.1 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 15.5 2.9 57,496 Uny Group Holdings Co Ltd 8270 JPJPY 627.00 14.9 4.2 14.6 14.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.4 3.8 11,186 Seven & IHoldings Co Ltd 3382 JPJPY 4,120.00 28.0 25.2 20.7 19.0 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 8.8 1.6 281,112 Familymart Co Ltd 8028 JPJPY 4,565.00 26.1 17.9 18.6 17.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 9.3 2.2 34,420 Okuwa Co Ltd 8217 JPJPY 882.00 16.7 28.2 115.9 30.3 0.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.9 3,032 Aeon Co Ltd 8267 JPJPY 1,281.00 14.7 14.9 14.5 13.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 6.4 2.0 82,794 Heiwado Co Ltd 8276 JPJPY 1,403.00 16.9 16.5 9.4 9.9 0.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.7 6,321 Ministop Co Ltd 9946 JPJPY 1,641.00 15.3 19.4 50.0 19.8 0.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.7 3,663 Arcs Co Ltd 9948 JPJPY 1,900.00 6.4 12.2 17.1 12.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 5.6 2.1 8,111 Simple Average 2,658.78 18.8 17.8 31.3 17.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 8.2 2.4 54,237 Weighted Average 3,878.32 24.9 21.8 20.0 17.8 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 8.8 1.9 185,652 Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings L 3099 JPJPY 1,314.00 8.8 23.3 23.3 21.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 4.5 0.8 40,314 Marui Group Co Ltd 8252 JPJPY 978.00 51.0 22.2 16.1 15.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 5.4 1.8 23,726 JFront Retailing Co Ltd 3086 JPJPY 685.00 19.3 27.7 11.9 16.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 8.5 1.4 28,886 Takashimaya Co Ltd 8233 JPJPY 969.00 29.3 23.7 18.2 17.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 5.2 1.0 24,656 H2ORetailing Corp 8242 JPJPY 859.00 149.7 27.2 17.2 14.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 5.1 1.5 13,544 Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings L 3099 JPJPY 1,314.00 8.8 23.3 23.3 21.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 4.5 0.8 40,314 Parco Co Ltd 8251 JPJPY 940.00 17.9 16.1 14.8 13.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 5.9 1.9 7,310 Daiei Inc 8263 JPJPY 298.00 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. (16.2) 0.0 4,636 Simple Average 919.63 40.7 23.4 17.8 17.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 2.9 1.1 22,923 Weighted Average 1,050.87 29.2 23.3 18.5 17.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 4.9 1.1 30,068 President Chain Store Corp 2912 TTTWD 203.50 31.2 25.7 23.0 20.9 9.2 8.3 7.6 6.7 33.3 3.1 54,225 Cp All Pcl CPALLTBTHB 39.75 32.3 31.5 25.7 19.8 13.4 12.1 10.0 7.8 42.4 2.5 84,255 Big CSupercenter Pcl BIGCTBTHB 174.50 23.5 22.4 19.4 17.3 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 18.7 1.6 34,164 Almacenes Exito Sa EXITOCBCOP 25,500.00 24.0 25.6 24.0 21.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 6.0 2.4 44,312 Organizacion Soriana S.A.B-BSORIANABMMMXN 38.76 19.6 18.8 16.5 14.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 9.4 0.8 41,074 Bim Birlesik Magazalar As BIMASTITRY 39.00 35.7 28.4 24.8 21.4 14.6 12.2 9.8 8.4 43.6 2.6 42,363 Magnit MGNTRM RUB 8,230.00 31.0 21.2 17.6 14.2 7.8 5.6 4.5 3.7 28.6 2.0 175,156 Cia Brasileira De Dis-Pref PCAR4 BZBRL 95.60 23.8 21.1 17.7 15.6 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 13.1 1.5 80,975 Dixy Group DIXYRMRUB 332.99 39.5 18.1 11.0 7.6 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 11.9 0.0 9,349 Shoprite Holdings Ltd SHPSJZAr 14,949.00 25.3 21.9 19.6 16.8 6.3 5.5 4.6 4.1 24.8 2.5 60,497 Cencosud Sa CENCOSUDCICLP 1,530.20 13.4 22.0 14.3 11.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 6.6 1.6 61,501 Simple Average 4,648.48 27.2 23.3 19.4 16.4 5.9 5.1 4.3 3.7 21.7 1.9 62,534 Weighted Average 5,239.96 27.2 23.6 19.7 16.5 6.7 5.6 4.7 4.0 24.1 2.0 89,287 S.A.C.I. Falabella FALABCICLP 4,202.90 27.4 21.9 18.1 15.8 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.4 16.3 1.9 143,700 Lotte Shopping Co 023530 KSKRW 371,500.00 10.6 11.6 10.2 9.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 6.9 0.4 86,222 Marisa Lojas Sa AMAR3 BZBRL 16.20 13.1 15.3 11.3 9.8 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.0 20.3 2.9 9,627 Lojas Renner S.A. LREN3 BZBRL 56.00 19.5 18.1 15.7 13.3 5.3 5.0 4.6 4.1 28.4 4.1 22,581 Hyundai Dept Store Co 069960 KSKRW 143,500.00 14.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 12.4 0.5 24,442 Shinsegae Co Ltd 004170 KSKRW 226,000.00 16.1 14.9 13.3 12.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 6.9 0.4 16,209 Far Eastern Department Store 2903 TTTWD 27.65 23.0 17.6 16.8 15.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 7.4 3.6 9,999 Parkson Holdings Bhd PKSMKMYR 2.89 8.3 11.0 13.9 11.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 6.6 4.0 7,165 29 Ja nu ar y 20 14 Li an hu a 联华超市 ( 00 98 0 H K ) C om pa ny R ep or t See the last page for disclaimer of 7 Robinson Department Store Pu ROBINSTBTHB 44.25 23.8 23.7 19.6 16.6 4.9 4.3 3.8 3.4 20.6 2.4 11,728 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Pt RALSIJIDR 1,210.00 20.3 19.3 17.9 15.8 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.3 14.1 2.8 5,817 Simple Average 74,655.99 17.7 17.1 15.2 13.2 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 14.0 2.3 33,749 Weighted Average 117,974.99 19.9 16.6 14.1 12.3 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 13.7 1.6 88,504 Wal-Mart Stores Inc WMTUSUSD 74.67 16.4 15.2 14.5 13.3 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.8 20.8 2.5 1,875,707 Kroger Co KRUSUSD 36.65 36.3 14.8 13.2 11.8 5.2 5.1 3.9 3.5 30.7 1.6 146,963 Target Corp TGTUSUSD 57.89 13.4 12.1 13.4 13.0 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 14.2 2.6 284,068 J.C. Penney Co Inc JCPUSUSD 6.42 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 (49.9) 0.0 15,182 Safeway Inc SWYUSUSD 31.62 13.1 29.5 18.8 15.3 2.6 2.1 2.2 1.9 14.0 2.5 59,232 Metro Inc MRUCNCAD 65.25 13.4 13.2 12.7 11.6 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 16.4 1.7 41,223 Tesco Plc TSCOLNGBp 320.25 9.2 10.7 10.5 10.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 15.0 4.6 333,230 Wm Morrison Supermarkets MRWLNGBp 243.10 9.1 9.1 10.2 10.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 10.9 5.3 73,056 Sainsbury (J) Plc SBRYLNGBp 356.70 11.1 12.0 11.0 10.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 10.5 4.9 87,305 Carrefour Sa CAFPEUR 25.74 14.2 19.0 16.1 13.9 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 12.9 2.7 197,624 Casino Guichard Perrachon COFPEUR 77.60 8.2 15.0 13.9 12.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 7.2 4.2 93,097 Metro Ag MEOGREUR 31.95 3,195.0 626.5 16.3 13.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 11.1 3.0 110,536 Delhaize Group DELBBBEUR 48.56 46.2 11.7 11.1 10.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 8.4 2.9 52,763 Wesfarmers Ltd WESAUAUD 42.39 23.0 21.5 19.9 17.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 9.6 4.7 330,943 Woolworths Ltd WOWAUAUD 33.52 22.5 17.7 17.0 16.0 5.0 4.9 4.3 4.0 26.1 4.1 291,774 Simple Average 96.82 245.1 59.1 14.2 12.9 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 10.5 3.2 266,180 Weighted Average 91.26 105.0 32.3 14.6 13.4 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 17.7 3.1 1,003,678 Kering KERFPEUR 146.55 17.6 14.9 13.5 11.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 11.0 3.2 196,202 Kohls Corp KSSUSUSD 51.08 11.8 12.3 12.4 11.4 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 15.1 2.5 84,916 Dillards Inc-Cl ADDSUSUSD 90.70 10.5 14.4 12.4 11.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 17.1 0.2 30,929 Nordstrom Inc JWNUSUSD 58.23 18.2 16.6 15.8 14.2 6.2 6.2 5.5 4.9 36.1 1.9 87,407 Macy'SInc MUSUSD 54.47 18.4 16.0 14.1 12.2 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.4 25.2 1.6 155,817 J.C. Penney Co Inc JCPUSUSD 6.42 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 (49.9) 0.0 15,182 Macintosh Retail Group Nv MACINNAEUR 8.65 n.a.84.0 18.7 13.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 n.a. n.a. 3.0 2,233 Stockmann Oyj Abp-BShare STCBVFHEUR 11.50 15.5 24.7 17.2 11.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 5.7 4.9 8,805 Marks & Spencer Group Plc MKSLNGBp 473.50 14.6 14.6 15.2 13.5 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.6 19.7 3.6 98,504 David Jones Ltd DJSAUAUD 2.89 14.9 15.7 17.4 15.5 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 11.2 5.3 10,609 Myer Holdings Ltd MYRAUAUD 2.63 11.0 11.8 13.4 12.1 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 12.9 6.3 10,527 Debenhams Plc DEBLNGBp 75.70 7.7 7.8 10.1 9.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 12.3 4.2 11,946 Mothercare Plc MTCLNGBp 270.25 n.a.42.4 35.7 18.4 3.3 3.1 10.1 7.1 30.7 0.1 3,087 Simple Average 96.35 14.0 22.9 16.3 12.9 2.2 2.2 2.7 2.5 12.3 2.8 55,090 Weighted Average 137.02 15.6 15.0 13.8 12.1 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.5 17.8 2.6 124,236 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan international. 29 Ja nu ar y 20 14 Li an hu a 联华超市 ( 00 98 0 H K ) C om pa ny R ep or t See the last page for disclaimer of 7 Appendix: Financial Statements and Ratios. Profit & Loss (RMB million) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Cash Flow Statements 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Turnover 27,520 28,988 31,182 33,854 36,839 Profit before tax 972666 494 575646 COGS (23,564) (25,058) (26,801) (29,091) (31,645) Depreciation & Amortisation 546556 575 578581 Gross profit 3,956 3,929 4,381 4,763 5,194 Results from associates (168) (164) (92) (95) (100) Other revenue 2,523 2,530 2,449 2,725 3,038 Interest income (302) (406) (365) (393) (403) Consolidated gross profit 6,480 6,459 6,830 7,489 8,233 Tax paid (227) (280) (249) (198) (222) Other income 596 696 651 679 700 Others 87288 495 364454 Distribution, G&A and other exp. (6,246) (6,642) (7,079) (7,688) (8,386) Change in working capital (116) (667) 498 38 (148) Operating profit 829 512 401 480 547 Net operating cashflow 793 (6) 1,356 868808 Net Capex (1,168) (681) (891) (800) (848) Share of profit from associates 143 154 92 95 100 Interest and dividends 170137 146 153161 Income tax (258) (214) (163) (181) (194) Change in financial assets 675 (2,098) 159 93126 Net profit 714 452 331 394 453 Acquisition & disposal 034 (24) 00 Minority interest (87) (112) (50) (59) (68) Others 34 (58) 24 00 Net investing cash (289) (2,666) (586) (554) (562) Shareholders' net profit 627 340 281 335 385 Increase/(Decrease) in loan 20 0 00 EPS (RMB) 0.560 0.304 0.251 0.299 0.344 Dividend paid (447) (276) (232) (134) (155) DPS (RMB) 0.180 0.200 0.083 0.099 0.113 M&A & others (74) (29) (0) (0) (0) Net financing cash (518) (305) (232) (135) (156) Increase/(Decrease) in cash (15) (2,977) 538 18091 Balance Sheet 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Cash at year beginning 5,5815,566 2,589 3,1273,307 Cash and equivalent 5,566 2,589 3,127 3,307 3,397 Cash at year ending 5,5662,589 3,127 3,3073,397 Time deposit 1,713 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 Inventories 3,421 3,056 3,803 3,568 4,370 Financial Ratios 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F A/R and O/R 971 1,295 1,291 1,493 1,512 Operation Financial assets 383 641 512 577 544 Inventory turnover days 4847474646 Others 11 11 0 0 0 A/P turnover days 6663636363 Current assets 12,065 11,338 12,479 12,690 13,570 Total asset turnover days 257259245229217 FA, CIP, Land use right 3,710 3,870 4,161 4,360 4,545 Goodwill and software 187 187 176 163 149 Growth (%) Investment in associates 517 568 591 620 651 Turnover growth 6.25.37.68.68.8 Time deposit-noncurrent 2,744 4,236 3,200 3,200 3,200 Consolidated GP growth 7.5 (0.3) 5.79.69.9 Financial assets & deferred tax 657 499 641 626 695 Net profit 0.5 (36.6) (26.9) 19.114.8 Prepaid rental 135 106 121 114 117 EPS growth 0.7 (45.8) (17.3) 19.114.8 Others 300 0 (248) (384) (562) Non-current assets 8,249 9,467 8,642 8,698 8,796 Margin (%) Total Assets 20,314 20,804 21,121 21,388 22,366 GP margin 14.413.614.114.114.1 A/P 4,419 4,296 5,025 5,092 5,914 Consolidated GP margin 21.620.520.320.520.6 O/P, accrual and etc.2,220 2,231 2,373 2,586 2,824 Net profit margin 2.41.41.01.11.1 Coupon liabilities 9,756 10,259 9,577 9,305 8,917 Other revenue / total revenue 8.48.07.37.57.6 Due to related parties 86 45 65 55 60 SG&A / total revenue 20.821.121.021.021.0 Others 164 120 72 80 86 Current liabilities 16,645 16,951 17,113 17,119 17,801 Return (%) Deferred tax 47 85 78 89 96 ROE 20.210.18.29.310.0 Non-current liabilities 47 85 78 89 96 ROA 3.21.71.31.61.8 Total Liabilities 16,692 17,036 17,191 17,208 17,897 Effective tax rate 26.632.233.031.530.0 Minority interest 308 365 454 476 504 Payout ratio 32.265.933.033.033.0 NETASSETS 3,314 3,404 3,476 3,704 3,965 Share Capital 1,120 1,120 1,120 1,120 1,120 Liquidity & Gearing Reserve 2,194 2,284 2,357 2,585 2,846 Net gearing (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash SHAREHOLDER'SEQUITY 3,314 3,404 3,476 3,704 3,965 Current ratio (x) 0.70.70.70.70.8 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan international. 29 Ja nu ar y 20 14 Li an hu a 联华超市 ( 00 98 0 H K ) C om pa ny R ep or t See the last page for disclaimer of 7 Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited-H shares (01812) and China City Railway Transportation Technology Holdings Company Limited (01522), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment banking relationships with the issuer mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (International) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 2014 Guotai Junan Securities (International) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza,181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong. 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