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华瀚生物制药研究报告:申银万国(香港)-华瀚生物制药-0587.HK-增长保持健康态势140129

研报作者:Ming Shi 来自:申银万国(香港) 时间:2014-01-30 14:16:51
  • 股票名称
    华瀚生物制药
  • 股票代码
    0587.HK
  • 研报类型
    (PDF)
  • 发布者
    wr***jt
  • 研报出处
    申银万国(香港)
  • 研报页数
    8 页
  • 推荐评级
    买入(维持)
  • 研报大小
    510 KB
研究报告内容

Pharmaceuticals,Biotechnology&Life SWSResearchCo.Ltd 99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai|+862123297818 BringingChinatotheWorld January29,2014 买入 维持 增长保持健康态势 华瀚生物制药(587:HK) MarketData:Jan,28 ClosingPrice(HK$) 1.67 PriceTarget(HK$) 2.7 HSCEI 10,535 HSCCI 4,545 52-weekHigh/Low(HK$) 2.65/1.42 MarketCap(USDMn) 621 MarketCap(HK$Mn) 4,816 SharesOutstanding(Mn) 2,973 ExchangeRate(RMB-HK$) 1.26 PricePerformanceChart: Source:Bloomberg Analyst MingShiPhD A0230511110002 AXB623 shiming@swsresearch.com Contact MingShi 021-23297206 RelatedReports "HuaHanBiopharmaceutical(587 HK)–Promisingoutlook,reiterate buy"Dec11,2013 The company does not hold any equities or derivatives of the listed company mentioned in this report (“target”), but then we shall provide financial advisory services subject to the relevant laws and regulations. Any affiliates of the company may hold equities of the target, which may exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investment banking services to the target. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact compliance@swsresearch.com for relevant disclosure materials or log into under disclosure column for further information. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure and disclaimer upon the last page. Financialsummaryandvaluation 201220132014E 2015E 2016E Revenue (HKD million) 1,312.131,754.392,453.673,284.034,148.10 YOY (%) 13.38 33.71 39.8633.84 26.31 Net income (HKD million) 694.97223.33363.86664.23918.91 YOY (%) 46.22 (67.86) 62.9382.55 38.34 EPS (HKD) 0.27 0.07 0.090.16 0.22 Diluted EPS (HKD) 0.26 0.07 0.090.15 0.21 ROE (%) 16.99 4.71 7.0811.81 14.50 Debt/asset (%) 7.15 8.08 6.897.08 6.96 Dividend Yield (%) 3.56 0.92 1.142.01 2.78 P/E (x) 5.94 21.80 18.1110.14 7.31 P/B (x) 0.95 1.03 1.251.18 1.04 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.46 9.62 7.575.17 3.69 Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised. P/E is calculated as closing price divided by each year’s EPS. 投资要点: 反商业贿赂调查影响不大。

公司表示最近反商业贿赂调查对4Q销售的影响不 大。

考虑到行业增长并未受到调查的影响,这并不令人感到惊奇。

上半年销售增长保持健康。

公司预计FY14上半年销售占全年~50%。

我们估计上 半年销售增长达到~18%,低于20%是因为FY13上半年高基数(占到FY13全年 的53.8%)导致的。

我们估计FY14下半年销售增长将同比达到30~35%。

我们认 为公司FY14销售增长超过20%的指引可以完成。

我们估计FY14上半年利润增长 可能同比持平,主要是因为销售费用上升。

但是FY13上半年利润占全年~59%, 并且我们预计FY14上半年利润占全年~50%,我们估计FY14下半年利润增长将 显著高于上半年可能达到45~50%。

我们认为扣非后FY14利润增长有望达到 20%。

独家产品将继续驱动短期快速增长。

因为高利润率和独家性,公司继续聚焦芪胶 升白胶囊、妇科再造丸(包括胶囊)、易孚易贝、止嗽化痰丸、金紫肽等独家产 品(FY13销售占比~75%)。

管理层预计这些独家产品FY14年增长分别超过 40%,20%,20%,20%,70%。

考虑到独家性、显著疗效以及大力推广,芪胶升白胶囊 增长将来自于更多医院和医院科室的覆盖。

考虑到已经进入广东基药目录、所有 医疗机构推动使用更多基药以及广东对中药的喜爱(2012年中成药消费广东排 名第一),妇科再造丸(包括胶囊)预计在广东取得强劲增长。

考虑到独家性、 进入广东基药目录以及大力推广,易孚易贝增长将来自于更多医院和医院科室的 覆盖。

金紫肽增长将来自于品牌多元化(上市两个新品牌UC小肽和极肽)以及 更多经销商带来的销售渠道扩张。

新产品将保证长期可持续增长。

公司正在完成3个胎盘产品的转移,预计于 FY14/15年上市。

另外公司在获得hNGF药检报告上也取得进展,预计2014年 上市。

考虑到独家性、良好疗效以及作为唯一获批针对糖尿病引发的神经病变的 药物,我们认为hNGF上市后将迅速成为重磅药物。

我们估计其市场潜力达到75 亿人民币。

几个独家品种有望成为新的增长点。

公司正在对6个独家品种开展积极的医保公 关工作希望能进入14版国家医保目录,该目录有望下半年出台。

考虑到芪胶升 白胶囊、止嗽化痰丸、易孚易贝在进入09版国家医保目录后的显著增长,我们 认为这些独家品种将成为新的增长点。

Pharmaceuticals,Biotechnology&Life SWSResearchCo.Ltd 99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai|+862123297818 BringingChinatotheWorld 一次性项目继续影响盈利,但前景乐观。

公司表示FY14会有港币1000~2000万 的医保相关费用(FY13是港币4700万)。

此费用很重要,如果上述几个独家产 品可以进入2014年医保目录的话将为未来增长奠定坚实基础。

我们认为该费用 更像是资本投入,将有助于华瀚未来获得可持续增长。

另一笔费用与人神经生长 因子有关,如果不能在14年3季度前上市将会有港币5100万的非现金计提。

另 外公司最近向员工发放了2.83亿的股票期权,预计产生港币9000万的非现金费 用。

因为此次期权的~90%是发放给销售团队的,我们预计此巨大的激励将导致 未来销售增长加快。

估值有吸引力,重申买入。

考虑到期权和红股的发放,我们调整FY14-16EPS预 测至港币0.09/0.16/0.22(同比分别增长20.4%/78.5%/38.7%).目标价港币 2.7对应67%的上涨空间。

扣非后股价目前对应15倍FY14市盈率和0.3倍 PEG,估值有吸引力,重申买入。

October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page1 January29,2014 Pharmaceuticals,Biotechnology&LifeSciences| CompanyResearch Investment Highlights: Minimal impacts from anti-bribery investigations. The company indicates that the impact of the recent anti-bribery investigation on 4Q’s sales is minimal. This is not surprising given that the industry growth is not impacted by the investigation. Sales growth for 1H14 remains healthy. The company expects 1HFY14 to account for c.50% of FY14 sales. We forecast 1H14 sales growth to be c.18% due to high sales base of 1HFY13 which accounts for 53.8% of FY13 sales. We expect 2H14 sales growth will reach 30-35% YoY. We believe the company’s sales growth guidance of >20% for FY14 is achievable. Due to higher selling costs, we forecast 1HFY14 net profit may remain flat YoY. However since 1HFY13 net profit accounted for c.59% and we expect 1HFY14 net profit to account for c.50%, we forecast the net profit growth in 2HFY14 to be significantly higher reaching 45-50% and net profit growth in FY14 is likely to reach 20% (excluding one-time items). Exclusive products drive short-term growth. Account for c.75% of total sales for FY13 (due to a higher profit margin and exclusivity), the company continues to focus its efforts on exclusive products. These include Qijiao Shengbai Capsules (with expect FY14 growth of >40%) , Fuke Zaizao Pills (>20%), Yi Fu & Yi Bei (>20%), Zhisou Huatan Pills (>20%) and Golden Peptide (>70%). We believe such growth is achievable. Given its exclusivity, superior therapeutic effects and strong promotion, the growth of Qijiao Shengbai capsules will stem from coverage of more hospitals and departments. Fuke Zaizao pills (including capsules) are expected to see strong growth in Guangdong, where the drug was included in the Essential Drug List (EDL) due to the strong push for the use of more EDL drugs in all medical institutions and Guangdong’s large appeal towards Tradition Chinese Medicine (TCM) (No.1 in TCM consumption in 2012). Given its exclusivity, inclusion into Guangdong’s EDL and strong promotion, the growth of Yi Fu & Yi Bei will stem from the coverage of more hospitals and departments. The growth of Golden Peptide will stem from its brand diversification through launching two more brands UC Small Peptides & Ji Peptides which target different consumers and expansion of distribution channels through more distributors. New products will underpin the long-term outlook. The company is finalizing the transfer of three placenta-related products and expects them to be launched in FY14-15. Hua Han is making progress to obtain the Drug Qualification Report for Human nerve growth factor (hNGF), which is expected to be launched in 2014. We believe that hNGF will quickly become a blockbuster drug, given its exclusivity, superior therapeutic effects and that it is the only drug approved for treating diabetic neuron diseases. We expect its market potential to be Rmb7.5bn. Exclusive products serve as new growth drivers. The company is actively promoting six exclusive TCM products with the intention of including them into the 2014 National Medical Insurance Catalogue (NMIC). This is likely to be released during 2H14. Given the significant growth of Qijiao Shengbai, Zhisou Huatan and Yi Fu & Yi Bei after their inclusion into the 2009 NMIC, we believe that these exclusive products will become new growth drivers. Promising outlook. One-time items continue to impact EPS. In terms of the NMIC (HK$47m for FY13), the company expects an expense of HK$10-20m in FY14. This expense is critical, if any of above-mentioned exclusive drugs were to be included in the 2014 NMIC, then this would lay a solid foundation for future growth. We believe this expense is more like a capital investment, helping Hua Han to achieve sustainable growth. Another expense is related to the hNGF. A non-cash impairment of HK$51m (HK$47m for FY13) might occur if the drug cannot be launched before October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page2 January29,2014 Pharmaceuticals,Biotechnology&LifeSciences| CompanyResearch 3Q14. In addition, the company recently granted 282.6m stock options to its employees, a non-cash expense of c.HK$90m is expected. Since c.90% of stock options are granted to its sales team, we expect future sales growth to rise, given increased motivation among employees. Attractive valuation, reiterate BUY. Considering the issuing of stock options and bonus shares, we revise our EPS forecast to HK$0.09 for 14E (+20.4% YoY), HK$0.16 for 15E (+78.5% YoY) and HK$0.22 for 16E (+38.7% YoY). Our target price of HK$2.7 represents 67% upside. The stock is currently trading at 15x 14E PE (excl. one-time items) with 0.3x PE/G. The current valuation therefore remains attractive. Reiterate BUY. October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page3 January29,2014 Pharmaceuticals,Biotechnology&LifeSciences| CompanyResearch Appendix Consolidated Income Statement HK$ Mn 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Revenue 1,312 1,754 2,454 3,284 4,148 TCM 1,099 1,363 1,677 2,048 2,457 Biopharmaceutical 423 517 777 1,236 1,691 Trading 202 37 0 0 0 Cost of Sales 456 387 595 724 855 Gross Profit 856 1,367 1,859 2,560 3,293 Other Income 41 14 13 13 14 Selling/General/Admi.Expenses 450 1,000 1,325 1,741 2,157 EBITDA 455 421 600 894 1,214 EBIT 406 367 534 819 1,136 Finance Costs 3 2 2 2 2 Profit before tax 774 379 455 830 1,148 Income tax expense 79 98 91 166 229 Minority interests 38 0 10 12 14 Profit for the year 695 223 364 664 919 Consolidated Cash Flow Statement HK$ Mn 201220132014E 2015E 2016E Profit before taxation 774 379 455 830 1,148 Plus:Depr. and amortisation 49 54 66 74 78 Finance cost 3 2 2 2 2 Losses from investments 0 0 0 0 0 Change in working capital 30 (311) (418) (523) (546) Others (36) (49) (45) (49) (23) CF from operating activities 741 (23) (31) 168 429 CAPEX 99 299 299 99 99 Other CF from investing activities 415 350 0 0 0 CF from investing activities 316 51 (299) (99) (99) Equity financing 0 0 0 0 0 Net change in liabilities (1) 0 0 0 2 Dividend and interest paid (139) (45) (73) (133) (184) Other CF from financing activities 3 (2) 0 0 1 CF from financing activities (137) (46) (73) (133) (181) Net cash flow 920 (19) (402) (63) 149 FCFF 504 311 391 303 538 FCFE 501 309 389 301 538 October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page4 January29,2014 Pharmaceuticals,Biotechnology&LifeSciences| CompanyResearch Consolidated Balance Sheet HK$ Mn 201220132014E 2015E 2016E Current Assets 2,762 3,551 4,092 4,595 5,335 Bank balances and cash 2,095 2,799 2,397 2,334 2,483 Trade and other receivables 617 704 1,636 2,189 2,765 Inventories 43 41 59 72 86 Other current assets 7 7 0 0 0 Long-term investment 450 375 0 0 0 PP&E 322 362 926 968 1,004 Intangible and other assets 303 274 269 252 238 Total Assets 4,404 5,154 5,523 6,051 6,813 Current Liabilities 233 343 290 338 383 Borrowings 32 25 32 32 33 Trade and other payables 146 192 198 241 285 Other current liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 Long-term liabilities 22 18 90 90 92 Total Liabilities 315 416 380 428 474 Minority Interests 183 191 201 213 227 Shareholder Equity 0 0 0 0 0 Share Capital 241 317 317 317 317 Reserves 1,719 1,646 2,285 2,221 2,188 Equity attributable 1,870 2,049 2,340 2,871 3,607 Total Liabilities and equity 4,404 5,154 5,523 6,051 6,813 Key Financial Ratios 201220132014E 2015E 2016E Ratios per share (HK$) Earnings per share 0.27 0.07 0.09 0.16 0.22 Diluted EPS 0.26 0.07 0.09 0.15 0.21 Operating CF per share 0.31 (0.01) (0.01) 0.04 0.11 Dividend per share 0.06 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 Net assets per share 1.70 1.58 1.30 1.38 1.55 Key Operating Ratios(%) ROIC 19.99 15.42 23.63 22.49 26.20 ROE 16.99 4.71 7.08 11.81 14.50 Gross profit margin 65.23 77.94 75.75 77.95 79.39 EBITDA Margin 34.65 23.99 24.46 27.21 29.26 EBIT Margin 30.94 20.92 21.75 24.95 27.39 Growth rate of Revenue(YoY) 13.38 33.71 39.86 33.84 26.31 Growth rate of Profit(YoY) 46.22 (67.86) 62.93 82.55 38.34 Debt-to-asset ratio 7.15 8.08 6.89 7.08 6.96 Turnover rate of net assets 0.32 0.37 0.48 0.58 0.65 Turnover rate of total assets 0.30 0.34 0.44 0.54 0.61 Effective tax rate (%) 21.77 30.45 20.00 20.00 20.00 Dividend yield (%) 3.56 0.92 1.14 2.01 2.78 Valuation Ratios (X) P/E 5.94 21.8 18.1 10.1 7.31 P/B 0.95 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.04 EV/Sale 3.63 2.31 1.85 1.41 1.08 EV/EBITDA 10.46 9.62 7.57 5.17 3.69 Source:SWS Research October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page5 January29,2014 Pharmaceuticals,Biotechnology&LifeSciences| CompanyResearch InformationDisclosure: The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst. The analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the analyst, the Company or the group company(ies). A group company(ies) of the Company confirm that they, whether individually or as a group (i) are not involved in any market making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with any group company(ies) of the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do not have any financial interest in relation to the listed corporation reviewed or (iv) do not, presently or within the last 12 months, have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation reviewed. Undertakings of the Analyst I (We) am (are) conferred the Professional Quality of Securities Investment Consulting Industry by the Securities Association of China and have registered as the Securities Analyst. I hereby issue this report independently and objectively with due diligence, professional and prudent research methods and only legitimate information is used in this report. I am also responsible for the content and opinions of this report. I have never been, am not, and will not be compensated directly or indirectly in any form for the specific recommendations or opinions herein. Disclosure with respect to the Company The company is a qualified securities investment consulting institute approved by China Securities Regulatory Commission with the code number ZX0065. Releasing securities research reports is the basic form of the securities investment consulting services. 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Introduction of Share Investment Rating Security Investment Rating: When measuring the difference between the markup of the security and that of the market’s benchmark within six months after the release of this report, we define the terms as follows: Buy: with a markup more than 20% better than that of the market; Outperform:With a markup 5% to 20% better than that of the market; Neutral: with a markup less than 5% better or worse than that of the market; Underperform: with a markup more than 5% worse than that of the market. Industry Investment Rating: When measuring the difference between the markup of the industry index and that of the market’s benchmark within six months after the release of the report, we define the terms as follows: Overweight:Industry performs better than that of the whole market; Equal weight: Industry performs about the same as that of the whole market; Underweight:Industry performs worse than that of the whole market. We would like to remind you that different security research institutions adopt different rating terminologies and rating standards. We adopt the relative rating method to recommend the relative weightings of investment. The clients’ decisions to buy or sell securities shall be based on their actual situation, such as their portfolio structures and other necessary factors. The clients shall read through the whole report so as to obtain the complete opinions and information and shall not rely solely on the investment ratings to reach a conclusion. The Company employs its own industry classification system. The industry classification is available at our sales personnel if you are interested. HSCEI is the benchmark employed in this report. Disclaimer: This report is to be used solely by the clients of SWS Research Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the “Company”). The Company will not deem any other person as its client notwithstanding his receipt of this report. This report is based on public information, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not warranted by the Company. The materials, tools, opinions and speculations contained herein are for the clients’ reference only, and are not to be regarded or deemed as an invitation for the sale or purchase of any security or other investment instruments. The clients understand that the text message reminder and telephone recommendation are no more than a brief communication of the research opinions, which are subject to the complete report released on the Company’s website (. The clients may ask for follow-up explanations if they so wish. The materials, opinions and estimates contained herein only reflect the judgment of the Company on the day this report is released. The prices, values and investment returns of the securities or investment instruments referred to herein may fluctuate. At different periods, the Company may release reports which are inconsistent with the materials, opinions and estimates contained herein. Save and except as otherwise stipulated in this report, the contactor upon the first page of the report only acts as the liaison who shall not provide any consulting services. The clients shall consider the Company’s possible conflict of interests which may affect the objectivity of this report, and shall not base their investment decisions solely on this report. The clients should make investment decisions independently and solely at your own risk. Please be reminded that in any event, the company will not share gains or losses of any securities investment with the clients. Whether written or oral, any commitment to share gains or losses of securities investment is invalid. The investment and services referred to herein may not be suitable for certain clients and shall not constitute personal advice for individual clients. The Company does not ensure that this report fully takes into consideration of the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of individual clients. The Company strongly suggests the clients to consider themselves whether the opinions or suggestions herein are suitable for the clients’ particular situations; and to consult an independent investment consultant if necessary. Under no circumstances shall the information contained herein or the opinions expressed herein forms an investment recommendation to anyone. Under no circumstances shall the Company be held responsible for any loss caused by the use of any contents herein by anyone. Please be particularly cautious to the risks and exposures of the market via investment. Independent investment consultant should be consulted before any investment decision is rendered based on this report or at any request of explanation for this report where the receiver of this report is not a client of the Company. 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