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研究报告:高华证券-欧洲点评:央行维持利率不变且未释放立即行动的明确信号-140206

研报作者: 来自:高华证券 时间:2014-02-07 16:55:14
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European Views-140206 重要信息披露参见本文最后部分 欧洲点评 2014年2月6日 研究报告 高华全球经济研究网站 央行维持利率不变且未释放立即行动的明确信号 欧洲央行在2月份会议上保持政策利率不变,且未明确暗示即将采取行动来应对货币市 场的波动。

央行行长德拉吉强调欧洲央行仍随时准备在必要情况下采取行动,但也坚决 强调了欧洲央行的中期目标,表明仅凭当前的低通胀尚不足以令货币政策立场在短期内 出现转变。

复苏依然脆弱且不均衡 尽管管理委员会承认数据已有改善,但仍对经济前景持谨慎看法。

(“新信息印证了欧 元区经济的温和复苏正以与我们此前评估相吻合的速度推进。

”)管理委员会预计在“ 宽松货币政策立场”、金融状况改善、外需“逐步走强”和能源价格走低的背景下,未 来内需将出现改善。

但管理委员会认为经济前景所面临风险仍趋于下行,同时德拉吉在 新闻发布会期间对复苏的描述为“依然脆弱且不均衡”。

货币市场状况并未出现“不合理的收紧” 德拉吉在上个月的新闻发布会上指出了可能引发欧洲央行进一步采取政策措施的两个条 件:1)货币市场状况出现“不合理”的收紧;2)中期通胀前景发生改变。

就货币市场状 况而言,欧洲央行认为并无必要采取任何行动来减少货币市场的波动,事先准备的2月 份声明只是重复1月份声明的相关措辞(“就近期货币市场的波动及其对我们货币政策 立场的潜在影响而言,我们将密切关注这方面进展并随时准备动用所有可用工具”)。

上周末和本周初的若干媒体报道似乎显示管理委员会正考虑不再冲销SMP计划所产生的 流动性。

但德拉吉在新闻发布会期间表示这虽是可用工具之一,但今天的会议并未讨论 该政策选项。

更总体而言,德拉吉并未表示货币市场状况使得目前有理由进一步采取行 动。

考虑到1月中旬以来EONIA利率的下滑,这可以理解。

此外,另一个可能的原因是 任何可能采取的举措都会产生一定的负面效应,无论是下调再回购利率、再回购和存款 利率双双下调,还是不再通过冲销SMP来回收流动性。

因此,货币市场利率下滑使得管 理委员会能够暂时持观望态度。

但随着银行系统的过剩流动性继续减少并可能再度导致 货币市场利率出现更大波动,管理委员会可能很快就会被迫考虑采取措施来应对“不合 理的收紧”。

Dirk Schumacher dirk.schumacher@gs.com +49 (0)6975321210 2014年2月6日2 欧洲点评高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 中期前景迄今并未改变 1月份通胀初值低于预期(同比增幅为+0.7%)以及 这是否意味着欧元区通缩风险加大是今日新闻发布会 的主要焦点。

德拉吉被数次问及通胀持续处于低位是 否与欧洲央行维护价格稳定的使命相符。

德拉吉承认通胀率持续处于低位构成风险,但他并不 认为通缩风险已加大,并指出还需在几项因素方面满 足条件才会令该情景成为现实(“与上个世纪90年 代的日本几乎没有相似之处”)。

德拉吉还不遗余力 地强调了欧洲央行在确定适当货币政策立场时的中期 目标。

当然,这并不意味着管理委员会不会调整其对风险的 看法。

实际上,事先准备的声明释放了这样的信号, 即欧洲央行将在3月份重新评估通胀前景(“就价格 和增长的中期前景而言,3月初将发布进一步的信息 和分析”)。

稍后在新闻发布会上,德拉吉提及了员 工预测更新,此轮更新将包含对2016年的新预测。

在讨论欧洲央行未来可能采取的行动时,我们认为重 要的一点在于明确区分旨在强化当前政策立场的举措 (短期货币市场利率接近零)与确保通胀率在中期内 维持在目标水平附近的举措。

下调MRO利率原则上 可应对两方面的风险,欧洲央行对11月份下调MRO 利率的解释就是应对当月低通胀数据所蕴含的通胀下 行风险,但我们从不认为这一解释完全具说服力,我 们当时将下调利率解读为“投机取巧式下调”。

毕 竟,MRO利率下调25个基点对经济和通胀前景的影 响较小。

但这个插曲表明管理委员会有时愿意采取相 当治标不治本的措施。

因此,短期内仍有可能下调利 率(虽然这不是我们的基本情景假设),尤其是考虑 到2月份和3月份整体通胀可能低于1月份数据。

但考虑到进一步下调MRO利率基本属于治标不治本 的举措,一旦通胀前景进一步恶化,欧洲央行可能最 终会被迫考虑采取更实质性的措施。

但考虑到欧元区 的机构设置及政治状况,欧洲央行痛下决心开始购入 金融资产的任何决策都将会在理事会内部引起高度争 议,我们怀疑将难以在短期内就此作出决策。

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