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See the last page for disclaimer E q u it y R e s e a rc h E q u it y R e s e a rc h R e p o rt 证券 研究 报告 M o rn in g R e s e a rc h F o c u s 股票研究今晨焦点证券研究报告 Morning Research Focus Research Department 29 November 2021 Table of Contents 目录 News Focus 新闻焦点 Weekly Overview and Trading Focus 上周回顾和本周交易提示 Upcoming key economic data and events 即将公布的重要经济数据和事件 Industry and Company Focus行业和公司焦点 Petrochemicals: How Will Oil Prices Fare Following Omicron 石化行业:南非变种病毒影响下油价将何去何从? Weibo Corporation (WBUS): Details of Global Offering on SEHKAnnounced 微博(WBUS):公布于港交所全球发售的细节 Pinduoduo Inc. (PDDUS): 3Q2021 Topline Missed With Higher-than-expected Profitability 拼多多(PDDUS):2021年第三季度收入差于预期,盈利能力高于预期 Latest Reports 最新报告摘要 Company Name 公司名称 Code 代码 标题 TP 目标价 Chg z Rating 评级 Chg 变动 EPS Est.Change 盈利预测是否改变 Anta Sports 02020 HK FILA's Growth Is Expected to Slow Down, "Accumulate" HK$145.00 ↓ Accumulate ↓ Y 安踏体育02020 HKFILA增速预期将放缓,“收集” HK$145.00 ↓收集↓是 JD-SW 09618 HK 3Q2021 Results Beat, "Accumulate" HK$385.00 ↑ Accumulate -- Y 京东集团-SW 09618 HK 2021年第三季度业绩超预期,“收集” HK$385.00 ↑收集--是 Appendices:Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附:行业和公司焦点,最新报告摘要中文版。

Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer HSIPerformance HSCEIPerformance Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Previous Trading Day 前一交易日 Intraday Change 单日涨跌 HK$ m 百万港元 RMB m 百万人民币 HSIIndex 恒生指数 24,080.52 -2.67% Daily Turnover 总成交额 129,791 Mainland China Daily Turnover 内地总成交额 1,116,206 HSCEIIndex 国企指数 8,576.07 -2.65% Stock Connect Net Inflow 互联互通净流入 961 Market Cap (SSE) 沪市市值 45,097,900 HSTECHIndex 恒生科技指数 6,151.99 -3.25% Market Cap (HKEx) 港股市值 44,806,600 Market Cap (SZSE) 深市市值 38,911,000 资料来源:国泰君安国际,Bloomberg。

Note: the market capital value of HKEx, SSE, SZSE was recorded as at November 25 News Focus新闻焦点 News Comments新闻评论 Analyst: Andy Huang分析员:黄凯鸿 Last Friday (November 26), European and US stock market indexes both decreased. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield was down more than 15.8 bps and WTI crude oil prices dropped more than 13.0%. The World Health Organization (WHO) issued a warning to "remain vigilant" against the new COVID-19 variant "Omicron" found in southern Africa. The US, EU, UK, Canada, Russia and other countries or regions announced the implementation of travel restrictions on southern Africa. Fears that the economic recovery could be hindered and risk aversion quickly accumulated as research suggested that the new variant would be more contagious than the Delta strain. We think that if the economic recovery is hampered by the impact of the new variant, followed by 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 35,000 Nov/20 Feb/21 May/21 Aug/21 Nov/21 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Nov/20 Feb/21 May/21 Aug/21 Nov/21 Please subscribe GTJAIResearch Wechat subscription account and service account. Wechat subscription account ID:国泰君安国际研究部 Wechat service account ID:国泰君安国际策略研究Please scan the QR codes on the right-hand side. Research Report Database: (1) – “Research” – “Focus: Company”/ “Research Highlights” (2) Bloomberg Report Page: RESPGJIR or NHGTJ 欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部微信公众号及服务号。

公众号账号:国泰君安国际研究部 服务号账号:国泰君安国际策略研究 研究报告库:(1) – “研究报告” – “公司点评”/“专题研究” (2) Bloomberg报告页面:RESPGJIR或NHGTJ Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer weakened commodity prices, the market expectations regarding interest rate hikes may see partial alleviation. Yet there is still much uncertainty about the new variant so far, and the market needs time to digest and price in the impact of the Omicron variant on the economic recovery; short-term market sentiment should remain cautious. 上周五(11月26日)欧美股指均下跌。

此外10年期美债收益率跌超15.8个基点,美国原油价格跌幅超13.0%。

非洲南部发现新型冠状病毒变异株“奥密克戎”,世界卫生组织发出对该毒株“保持警惕”的警告,美国、欧盟、英国、 加拿大、俄罗斯等多个国家或地区先后宣布对南部非洲地区实施旅行限制。

有研究称该新毒株比“德尔塔”毒株更具传 染性,市场担忧全球经济复苏受阻,避险情绪快速上升。

我们认为,若经济复苏因新毒株影响受阻,大宗商品价格疲 软,市场加息预期或降温。

但目前新变异毒株存在较多不确定性,市场仍需时间消化与定价变异株将对经济复苏带来 的影响,短期投资气氛预期偏谨慎。

Market News市场新闻 The U.S. President Joe Biden said that the U.S. effort to ease gasoline prices spans the globe and Americans will see prices at the pump fall before long. 美国总统拜登表示美国平抑汽油价格的努力遍及全球,美国人将在不久之后看到油价下跌。

The World Health Organization is urging caution to the Omicron variant found in South Africa. The WHO said that understanding the level of severity of the Omicron variant will take days to several weeks and there is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with omicron are different from those from other variants. 世界卫生组织敦促对奥密克戎(Omicron)变种病毒保持谨慎。

世卫组织表示了解奥密克戎毒株的严重程度将需要几 天到几周时间,目前没有信息表明与奥密克戎有关的症状不同于其他毒株。

Weekly Overview and Trading Focus上周回顾和本周交易提示 Analyst: Alex Bai分析员:白舸 Overview of last week 上周回顾 The Hong Kong stock market decreased last week. In November, China's LPR quotation remained unchanged; one-year LPR was 3.85% and five-year LPR was 4.65%. The core PCE index of the U.S. in October rose 4.1% YoY, reaching its record high since 1991. The eurozone manufacturing PMI in November was 58.6, and services PMI was 56.6, both better than market expectation. The latest minutes of FOMC raised its estimates for the U.S. inflation, showing that it may take longer for prices to fall. Several Fed officials said that the Fed may need to raise interest rates in advance. The U.S. will release 50 million barrels of crude from its strategic reserves in an effort to reduce gasoline prices and prevent inflation. The global pandemic resurged, and some European countries have again adopted restrictive measures. A new and more infectious coronavirus variant was identified in South Africa, and the global market was shocked. Overall for a week, the Hang Seng index decreased 3.87% WoW to 24,080, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises index/ Hang Seng Technology Index decreased 4.40%/ 4.74% WoW, respectively. Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.97% WoW to 34,899, NASDAQComposite index decreased 3.52% WoW to 15,491, and the S&P 500 index decreased 2.20% WoW to 4,594. Inflationary pressure and pandemic concerns took a toll on the Hong Kong stock market. As the expected inflationary pressure in the U.S. still significant in short term, the market worries that the Fed will raise interest rates in advance. Although the U.S. and several countries decided to release oil reserves, the overall supply and demand of crude oil remains tight. The supply policy of OPEC+ may be see certain adjustments. The relapse in overseas pandemic and new coronavirus variant once again posed challenges to the situation of pandemic control. The process of global economic recovery may be exposed to new uncertainties, Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer and investor sentiment may remain relatively cautious. We expect the Hong Kong stock market to exhibit continued fluctuations for the near term. 上周香港股市下跌。

中国11月LPR报价保持不变,1年期LPR为3.85%,5年期以上LPR为4.65%。

美国10月核心PCE物价指 数同比升4.1%,创1991年来新高。

欧元区11月制造业PMI为58.6,服务业PMI为56.6,均好于市场预期。

FOMC最新会议纪要 上调了对美国通胀的预期,认为价格回落可能需要更长时间。

部分美联储官员表示,美联储可能需要提前加息。

美国将从国家战略石 油储备中释放约5,000万桶原油,以努力降低汽油价格并阻止通货膨胀。

全球疫情有所反复,欧洲部分国家再次启用限制措施。

南非 发现传染性更强的新型变异毒株,全球市场受到冲击。

总结全周,恒生指数按周累计下跌3.87%至24,080点,国企指数及恒生科技 指数按周分别累计下跌4.40%和4.74%。

道琼斯工业平均指数按周累计下跌1.97%至34,899点。

纳斯达克指数按周累计下跌3.52% 至15,491点。

标准普尔500指数按周累计下跌2.20%至4,594点。

通胀压力及疫情担忧令港股承压。

短期美国通胀压力仍然显著,市场担忧美联储加息的节点将提前。

尽管美国联合多个国家释放石油 储备,整体原油供需仍然偏紧。

OPEC+的供应政策或将调整。

海外疫情反复及变种病毒再次对控制疫情形成挑战,全球经济复苏的 进程出现新的不确定性,投资者情绪可能较为谨慎。

我们预计港股市场短期仍将维持震荡格局。

Key market data performance of last week 上周主要市场数据表现 Key data WoWChange Value 主要数据环比变动数值 O/NSHIBORDecreased 28.6ps 1.8870 隔夜SHIBOR下降28.6个基点 RMB middle rate Increased 111.0 bps 6.3936 人民币中间价上涨111.0个基点 USD/RMB onshore Increased 62.0 bps 6.3933 在岸人民币兑美元即期汇率上涨62.0个基点 PBoC open market operation Net injection of 190 billion yuan 净投放1,900亿元人民币 人民银行公开市场操作净投放1,900亿元人民币 U.S. dollar index Increased 0.06% 96.0890 美元指数上涨0.06% EUR/USD spot rate Increased 0.08% 1.1567 欧元兑美元上涨0.08% WTI oil Decreased 10.45% 68.15 纽约期油下降10.45% Spot price of gold Decreased 3.57% 1,785.50 黄金现货价格下降3.57% Source: Bloomberg 数据来源:彭博。

Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Upcoming key economic data and events即将公布的重要经济数据和事件 Analyst: Alex Bai分析员:白舸 Date 日期 Country 国家 Data / events 数据/事件 Market Consensus 市场一致预期 Previous Value 前值 Change 变动 30 Nov 11月30日 China 中国 Nov Non-manufacturing PMI 11月非制造业PMI 51.452.4 (1.0ppts) 30 Nov 11月30日 China 中国 Nov Manufacturing PMI 11月制造业PMI 49.849.20.6ppts 1 Dec 12月1日 China 中国 Nov Caixin PMIMfg 11月财新制造业PMI 50.550.6 (0.1ppts) 1 Dec 12月1日 U.S. 美国 Nov ISMManufacturing 11月ISM制造业PMI 61.060.80.2ppts 1 Dec 12月1日 Eurozone 欧元区 Nov Core CPIYoY 11月核心消费价格指数同比增速 2.2% 2.0% 0.2ppts 1 Dec 12月1日 Eurozone 欧元区 Nov CPIEstimate YoY 11月消费价格指数环比增速 4.3% 4.1% 0.2ppts 1 Dec 12月1日 Eurozone 欧元区 Nov CPIMoM 11月消费价格指数环比增速 (0.2%) 0.8% (1.0ppts) 3 Dec 12月3日 China 中国 Nov Caixin PMIServices 11月财新服务业PMI 51.053.8 (2.8ppts) 3 Dec 12月3日 U.S. 美国 Nov ISMServices Index 11月ISM服务业PMI 65.066.7 (1.7ppts) 3 Dec 12月3日 U.S. 美国 Nov Unemployment Rate 11月失业率 4.5% 4.6% (0.1ppts) Note: All the forecasts in the above table are based on market consensus from Bloomberg. 注:上表中所有预测都基于彭博的市场一致预期。

Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Industry and Company Focus Petrochemicals: How Will Oil Prices Fare Following Omicron Analyst: Peter Shao What happened: Last Friday, a new variant of the coronavirus, named Omicron, was found in South Africa. According to BBC news, Omicron is more transmissible with more than 50 mutations, among which there are many which could avoid recognition by existing vaccines. Brent crude plunged by 11.6% last Friday, marking the biggest decline since April 2020. Comments and Views: Currently, Omicron has yet to be widely spread on a global scale, but the risk is believed to be high for Europe, the US and South Africa’s neighbouring countries. Currently to contain Omicron, the world has seen a new round of regional or partial lockdown measures. For example, in Europe, including the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands, there has been a new round of social distancing measures, and many countries have cancelled flights to and from South Africa. The new round of containment measures will inevitably affect oil demand in the short term, but they have yet to be of a massive impact. We believe the current oil price plunge primarily reflects the market’s concern over the following development of Omicron. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, we have seen that balance of supply-demand or even undersupply can be achieved during negative demand shock through voluntary and involuntary adjustments from the supply side. This is largely because OPEC+ has been in a more dominant position in the global supply landscape. Since the world has accumulated a lot of experiences in containing and treating coronavirus, we believe it is less likely that Omicron will result in a demand shock as severe as what we have seen in the early stage of the pandemic. Even if demand is to deteriorate to some extent, we believe OPEC+ has the incentive and is able to balance supply-demand through production adjustments, thus effectively stabilising oil prices. Investment suggestion: Despite Omicron has added to great uncertainty to the recovery of oil demand, we think it is less likely that oil prices will plunge further. Our current Brent crude price assumption for 2022 is US75/bbl. We may adjust our oil price assumptions according to the development of the Omicron outbreak and OPEC+’s following supply strategy. Weibo Corporation (WBUS): Details of Global Offering on SEHKAnnounced Analyst: Vincent Liu What happened: Weibo (the “Company”) announced the details of the launch of its global offering on the main board of Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK). The total number of shares of global offering will be 11 million, including 50% class A ordinary shares offered by Weibo (around 2.3% of total shares after the offering) and 50% sold by Weibo’s major shareholder, Sina. The offer price is expected to be no more than HK$388.00 (equivalent to US$49.80 per ADS), with estimated net process of HK$2,004.3 million, under the assumption of no exercise of over-allotment option, according to Weibo. The market capitalization will be up to HK$91,022 million, and Sina and Alibaba’s controlling subsidiary will hold around 41.0% and around 28.9% of Weibo’s shares respectively. According to the Company,45% of the net process will be used for continuing to grow user base and user engagement, and enhance content ecosystem,25% for research and development to enhance user experience and monetization capabilities,20% for strategic alliances and strategic investments and 10% for working capital. The offering is expected to commence on 29 November 2021 under stock code of 09898.HK. Comments and views: According to the prospectus, in 1H2021, Alibaba (including its subsidiaries), Sina, and third parties accounted for 12.3%,3.5% and 81.7% of revenue from advertising and marketing respectively. Average spending per advertiser excluding Alibaba was US$1,379, up 203.7% yoy, while the number of advertisers was 0.6 million, only a half compared with 1H2020, which indicated that Weibo lost a large amount of SME customers with lower advertising budget. VIP membership, live streaming and game-related services accounted for 46.4%,7.0% and 37.3% of revenue from value-added services. In Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer 1-3Q2021,87.2% of Weibo’s total revenue came from advertising. MAU and average DAU in September 2021 were 573 million and 248 million, with DAU/MAU ratio of 43.3%, which was lower than short video platforms (almost 60%). Although facing severe competition from Douyin, Kuaishou and Xiaohongshu, Weibo is actively implementing the strategy of monetization and videolization and via continuously investing in Video Account and recommendation efficiency and is making progress. We believe that the offering on SEHK will further strengthen Weibo’s competitiveness and reduce concerns about regulatory risk, especially on personal information protection. Investment suggestion: The Company’s present investment rating is "Buy" with a target price of US$60.00. Although the weakness of macroeconomy and tightening regulations have some influence on Weibo, we expect the Company to keep its health performance. We will adjust our profit forecasts and the target price in our next Company Report. Pinduoduo Inc. (PDDUS): 3Q2021 Topline Missed With Higher-than-expected Profitability Analyst: Danny Law What happened: Pinduoduo Inc. (the "Company") announced its unaudited 3Q2021 results as follows: 3Q2021 (RMB) yoy% 1-3Q2021 (RMB) Yoy% Revenue 21,506 mn 51.366,719 mn 102.5 Shareholders’ Profit/ (Loss) 1,640 mn n.a.1,149 mn n.a. Earnings/ (Loss) Per ADS 1.31 n.a.0.92 n.a. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Comments and Views: Revenue increased by 51.3% yoy to RMB21,506 mn,16.8% below our expectations. Non-GAAP net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB3,150 mn, up 575.4% yoy, far above our expectations. Online marketing services revenues reached RMB17,946 mn, up 43.7% yoy, and transaction service revenues increased 161.0% yoy to RMB3,477 mn, while merchandise sales revenues was RMB82 mn, contracting 79.1% yoy. Active buyers reached 867.3 mn, representing the yoy growth of 18.6%. Gross margin was 69.5%, down 7.6 ppts yoy,14.0 ppts above our expectations. Total operating expenses reached RMB12,808 mn, representing 59.6% of total revenue in 3Q2021. Sales and marketing expenses remained as the majority of total operating expenses, accounting for 46.7% of total revenue; such ratio has declined by 24.1 ppts yoy from 70.9% in 3Q2020. In our view, the consensus-missing revenue was mainly due to lower than expected merchandise sales revenues, which declined by 79.1% yoy or 95.8% qoq. However, the downsized merchandise sales business also helped to lower costs of revenues, resulting in higher-than-expected gross margin in 3Q2021. Meanwhile, sales and marketing (S&M) ratio stayed at 46.7% in 3Q2021, down 24.1 ppts yoy; the declining S&M ratio improved the Company’s profitability. During the earnings call, the Company said that they would beef up efforts on investment in R&D instead of heavily investing in S&M, focusing their investment in agriculture and agritech industry. In the meantime, the Company said that “10 Billion Agriculture Initiative” was approved in late September, as such it didn’t make impacts on 3Q2021 result. After the approval, the Company will allocate all profits from 3Q2021 to the “10 Billion Agriculture Initiative”, this will certainly impact the short- to medium-term profitability. Investment suggestion: Currently, our TP for PDD is US$120.00 and the investment rating is “Accumulate”. Again, the Company delivered upbeat profitability from cost reduction. We may revise up our FY2021 earnings forecasts and review our TP in the next company report despite that the Company’s “10 Billion Agriculture Initiative” will potentially dragged down its profitability in 4Q2021. Please see details in our next company report. Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Latest Reports Anta Sports(02020 HK):FILA's Growth Is Expected to Slow Down, "Accumulate" Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$145.00 Analyst: Tim Li Report Date: 2021-11-26 Summary 3Q21 retail channel performance in line.3Q21 retail sales of the Anta brand, FILA and all the other brands increased YoY by low-teens percentage, mid-single-digit percentage and 35%-40%, respectively. The slowdown in growth was mainly due to continuous regional COVID-19 outbreaks in China, unfavorable weather, and slowdown of China's economy. Anta still targets to achieve over 20% retail sales growth in 2021 for the Anta brand, but lowered 2021 retail sales growth target for FILA from over 30% to 20%-25%. Anta will focus more on FILA's growth quality. The Company expects FILA to achieve double-digit percentage retail sales CAGR in the next few years and growth will be faster than that of major international brands. Anta set up three "top strategies" for FILA: top merchandise, top brand, and top channel. Future growth of FILA will highly rely on improvements in single-store efficiency and development of e-commerce. Lower TP to HK$145.00 and downgrade to "Accumulate". We revise down 2021-2023 EPS forecasts by 8.5%, 17.6% and 16.3% to RMB2.822, RMB3.376 and RMB4.308, respectively. We revise down our expectation of FILA's future growth. We adjust our 2021-2023 forecasts to better reflect: 1) financial impacts of the completion of DTC transformation; and 2) influences of surged prices of major raw materials in 2021. We lower our TP to reflect the Company's latest fundamental developments and recent movements in market valuation. Our new TP represents 42.1x, 35.2x and 27.6x 2021,2022 and 2023 PER, respectively. As our new TP only represents 13.1% upside potential, we downgrade our investment rating to "Accumulate". JD-SW (09618 HK): 3Q2021 Results Beat, "Accumulate" Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$385.00 Analyst: Danny Law Report Date: 2021-11-26 Summary China’s e-commerce GMV grew by 17.4% yoy in 1-10M2021. According to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China’s commodity e-commerce GMV reached RMB8,497.9 bn in 1-10M2021, up 14.6% yoy. Penetration rate of online shopping for physical goods was 23.7%, down 0.5 ppts yoy. Key points: 1) JD-SW’s ("JD", or the "Company") 3Q2021 results beat expectations.2) We have lifted our revenue forecasts for 2021 to 2023, reflecting that the Company sales were less impacted under softening macroeconomic conditions in China in 2H2021. The expansion of the Company is still on track; category expansion, user penetration, scale expansion of merchants, and increasing service offering will continue to drive the Company’s top line.3) JD ramped up efforts on protecting gross margin in 3Q2021.4) The operating margin for 2021 to 2023 has been lifted, even though we have made an upward revision on total operating expense ratio in the mentioned period.5) The non-GAAP net margin for 2021 to 2023 will reach 1.7%/ 2.1%/ 2.4%, respectively, slightly up from our previous expectations.6) The 14th Five-Year Plan for e-commerce development in late October was published, reaffirming growth opportunities for China’s e-commerce industry from 2021 to 2025. We raise target price to HK$385.00, and maintain investment rating as "Accumulate". Leveraged by accumulated experience on the supply chain and further enriched product/ brand mix, the Company is still growing at a rapid pace. Our TP represents 60.0x 2021F non-GAAPPE or 1.0x 2021FPS. Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Chinese Translation中文翻译 _chi]行业和公司焦点 石化行业:南非变种病毒影响下油价将何去何从? 分析员:邵俊樨 事件描述:上周五,南非发现全新的变种新冠病毒Omicron。

据BBC报道,Omicron具有更强的传染性,其 变异高达50多处,其中不乏能影响现有疫苗对其进行识别的变异。

布伦特原油当日暴跌11.6%,为2020年4 月以来最大跌幅。

观点评论:目前Omicron在全球尚未出现大规模扩散,但其在欧洲、美国及南非周边国家有较高扩散的风险, 而香港目前也有两例输入性病例。

目前针对Omicron,全球已出现区域性或局部性的新一轮防疫措施,例如欧 洲方面,包括英国、比利时及荷兰,已开启新一轮社交限制措施,另外还有很多国家取消了往返南非的航班。

新一轮封锁措施难免对短期石油需求造成负面影响,但还未到较为严重的程度,而目前油价的暴跌主要体现了 市场对疫情后续发展的担忧。

由于Omicron疫情的发展具有高度不确定性,需求所受的影响是否在未来会加深 还难下定论。

但自新冠疫情爆发以来,我们看到到即使需求在受到严重冲击的情况下,全球供给也能通过主被 动调节,迅速实现供需平衡,甚至出现供不应求的情况。

这主要是因为在目前全球的供应格局中,OPEC+已 占据了更为主导的地位。

由于全球在过去将近两年的时间中积累了更多疫情防治的经验、疫苗接种率也不断提 高,我们认为Omicron对需求也难以造成疫情初期同等的影响。

即使需求发生一定程度的恶化,相信OPEC+ 也将有能力和动力对供给进行及时调整,从而有效稳定油价。

投资建议:虽然Omicron的出现再次给石油需求的复苏带来了极大的不确定性,但我们认为油价进一步暴跌的 可能性较小。

我们目前对2022年布伦特原油价格的假设为75美元/桶。

我们或将根据Omicron疫情的发展及 OPEC+后续的供应策略来调整我们的油价预测。

微博(WBUS):公布于港交所全球发售的细节 分析员:刘健威 事件描述:微博(“公司”)公布在港交所主板进行全球发售的细节。

全球发售的股份总数为1,100万股,包括 50%微博发售的A级普通股(约占发售后总股数的2.3%),以及微博大股东新浪出售的50%。

根据微博透露, 发售价预计不超过388.00港元(相当于每ADS49.80美元);在无超额配股权行使的假设下,预计净融资所得 为20.043亿港元。

市值最高将为910.22亿港元,新浪及阿里巴巴控股子公司将分别持有微博约41.0%和约 28.9%的股份。

根据公司透露,45%的净融资额将用于持续增长用户基础和用户参与度,并加强内容生态建设; 25%用于提高用户体验和货币化能力的研发;20%用于战略联盟和战略投资;10%用于运营资金。

预计将于2021 年11月29日开始发售,股票代码为09898.HK。

观点评论:根据招股书,2021年上半年,阿里巴巴(包括其子公司)、新浪以及第三方分别占广告及营销收入 的12.3%、3.5%和81.7%。

除阿里巴巴外的广告主平均支出为1,379美元,同比上升203.7%,而广告主数量 则为60万,仅为2020年上半年的一半;这反映微博流失了大量广告预算较低的中小客户。

VIP会员、直播和 游戏相关服务分别占增值服务收入的46.4%、7.0%和37.3%。

2021年前三季度,微博87.2%的总收入来自广 告。

2021年9月月活跃用户和平均日活跃用户分别为5.73亿和2.48亿;日活跃用户/月活跃用户比例为43.3%, 低于短视频平台的近60%。

尽管受到来自抖音、快手和小红书的激烈竞争,微博正通过对视频号和推送效率的 持续投入,积极实施货币化和视频化的战略,并正取得进展。

我们相信在港交所的上市将进一步增强微博的竞 争力并减轻对监管风险尤其是个人信息保护的疑虑。

投资建议:公司目前的投资评级为“买入”,目标价为60.00美元。

尽管宏观经济疲软以及监管趋严对微博造 成了一定的影响,我们预计微博将继续保持良好表现。

我们将在下一份公司报告中调整盈利预测和目标价。

Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer 拼多多(PDDUS):2021年第三季度收入差于预期,盈利能力高于预期 分析员:罗沛达 事件描述:拼多多(以下简称“公司”)公布其未经审计3Q2021业绩如下: 3Q2021 (人民币) 变动% 1-3Q2021 (人民币) 变动% 收入21,506百万元51.366,719百万元102.5 股东净利/ (亏损) 1,640百万元不适用1,149百万元不适用 每ADS净利/ (亏损) 1.31不适用0.92不适用 资料来源:公司,国泰君安国际。

观点评论:收入同比增长51.3%至人民币21,506百万元,低于我们预期16.8%。

非GAAP普通股股东净利为 人民币3,150百万元,同比增575.4%,远好于我们预期。

在线营销服务收入达到人民币17,946百万元,同比 增长43.7%,而交易服务收入同比增161.0%至人民币3,477百万元,而商品销售收入为人民币82百万元,同 比收缩79.1%。

活跃买家为867.3百万个,相当于同比增长18.6%。

毛利率为69.5%,同比下跌7.6个百分点, 高于我们预期14.0个百分点。

总运营支出达到人民币12,808百万元,相当于2021年第三季度总收入59.6%。

销售和营销费用仍是总运营支出的主要部分,占总收入的46.7%;该比率从2020年第三季度70.9%同比下降 24.1个百分点。

我们认为差于市场预期的收入主要原因是商品销售收入低于预期,其同比下跌79.1%或环比下 降95.8%。

但是,由于缩减规模的商品销售业务有助于降低收入成本,以在2021年第三季度实现高于预期的 毛利率。

同时,销售和营销比率于2021年第三季度为46.7%,同比下降24.1个百分点;下跌的销售和营销比 率改善公司的盈利能力。

在财报电话会议上,公司表示将加大对研发的投资力度,而不是在销售和营销上进行 大量投资,重点投资于农业和农业科技行业。

同时,公司表示“百亿农业专项”已于9月下旬获批,所以并未对 2021年三季度业绩产生影响。

在获批后,公司将把2021年三季度利润全部分配至“百亿农业专项”,这必将影 响中短期盈利能力。

投资建议:目前公司目标价为120.00美元和投资评级为“收集”。

再次,公司通过降低成本实现了乐观的盈利能 力。

尽管百亿农研专项资金将影响其2021年四季度盈利表现,我们将可能上调2021财年的盈利预测并在下 一份公司报告中检讨我们的目标价。

详情请参见公司点评。

_chi] 最新报告 安踏体育(02020 HK):FILA增速预期将放缓,“收集” 评级:收 集6-18m目标价: HK$145.00 分析员:李凡丁报告日期: 2021-11-26 报告摘要 2021年3季度零售渠道表现符合预期。

2021年3季度安踏品牌、FILA及所有其他品牌的零售流水分别同比增长低双位 数、中单位数及35%-40%。

增速放缓主要由于中国新冠疫情持续局部爆发、不利的天气及中国经济的放缓。

安踏仍维持 安踏品牌2021年高于20%的零售流水增长目标,但将FILA的2021年零售流水增长目标由高于30%下调至20-25%。

安踏将更加关注FILA的增长质量。

公司预计FILA将在未来几年实现双位数的零售销售年复合增长,且增长将快于主要 国际品牌。

安踏为FILA设立三个“顶级战略”:顶级商品、顶级品牌和顶级渠道。

FILA的未来增长将高度依赖于单店效 率的提升及电子商务的发展。

下调目标价至145.00港元,下调至“收集”。

我们分别下调2021至2023年每股盈利预测8.5%、17.6%和16.3%至2.822 元人民币、3.376元人民币和4.308元人民币。

我们下调了我们对FILA的未来增长预期。

我们调整了2021-2023年的预 Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer 测,以更好地反映:1)DTC转型完成的财务影响;及2)2021年主要原材料价格飙升的影响。

我们下调我们的目标价以 反映公司基本面的最新发展及近期市场估值的变动。

我们的新目标价分别相当于42.1倍、35.2倍和27.6倍2021年、2022 年和2023年市盈率。

由于我们的新目标价仅相当于13.1%的上涨空间,我们将投资评级下调至“收集”。

京东集团-SW(09618 HK):2021年第三季度业绩超预期,“收集” 评级:收 集6-18m目标价: HK$385.00 分析员:罗沛达报告日期: 2021-11-26 报告摘要 2021年1月至10月中国电商交易总额同比增长17.4%。

根据中国国家统计局公布的数据,2021年1月至10月的中国 实物电商交易总额达人民币84,979亿元,同比增14.6%。

实物商品网购渗透率为23.7%,同比下跌0.5个百分点。

要点:1)京东集团-SW (“公司”)的2021年3季度业绩超预期。

2)我们上调2021年至2023年的收入预测,以反映公司销 售在2021年下半年中国宏观经济状况疲软的情况下受到的影响较小。

公司的扩张仍在进行中;品类扩张、用户渗透、商 户规模扩张和服务供应增加将继续推动公司的收入增长。

3)京东在2021年第三季度加大了保护毛利率的力度。

4)2021年 至2023年的运营利润率已上调,尽管我们对上述期间的总运营费用率也进行了上调。

5)2021年至2023年的非GAAP 净利润率将分别达到1.7%/2.1%/2.4%,略高于我们之前的预期。

6)10月下旬发布的电子商务发展“十四五”规划再次明确 2021-2025年中国电子商务行业的增长机遇。

我们上调目标价至385.00港元,并维持投资评级为“收集”。

凭借在供应链上积累的经验和更加丰富的产品/品牌组合,公 司仍在快速增长。

我们的目标价相当于60.0倍2021年预测非GAAP市盈率或1.0倍2021年预测市销率。

Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Research Department研究部 Grace Liu刘 谷Head of Research, Market Strategy, Petrochemicals 主管,市场策略、 石化grace.liu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097516 Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming消费(酒店)、博彩noah.hudson@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976684 Gary Wong黄家玮Environmental Protection, Infrastructure 环保、基建gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092616 Kevin Guo郭 勇Raw Materials, Gas原材料、燃气kevin.guo@gtjas.com (86755) 23976671 Richard Cao曹 柱Banking银行caozhu013592@gtjas.com (86755) 23976870 Jun Zhu朱俊杰Solar, Electric Equipment, Conglomerate 太阳能、电力设备、综合业务junjie.zhu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097592 Toliver Ma马守彰Aviation, Automobiles & Components 航空、汽车toliver.ma@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095317 Jake Wang汪昌江Market Strategy, Wind Energy& others 市场策略、风电及其它wangchangjiang@gtjas.com (86755) 23976675 Wiley Huang黄重钧Insurance保险wiley.huang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095409 Kay Mai麦梓琪Health care医药maiziqi@gtjas.com (86755) 23976685 Danny Law罗沛达Internet (E-commerce)互联网(电子商务) danny.law@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097768 David Feng冯廷帅Machinery, Construction Materials机械、建材david.feng@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092113 Gin Yu余劲同Telecommunication Service & Equipment 电信服务及设备gin.yu@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976686 Jack Liu柳 晨Property房地产chen.liu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092149 Andy Huang黄凯鸿Market Strategy市场策略kaihong.huang@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976702 Jack Wu吴 狄Market Strategy市场策略di.wu@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976718 Peter Shao邵俊樨Petrochemicals, Electricity石化、电力peter.shao@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095464 Kevin Zhuo卓仕凯Shipping & Logistics, Ports航运物流、港口shikai.zhuo@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976725 Teddy Lin林荣叶Education教育rongye.lin@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976692 Chunli Zhan詹春立Property房地产james.zhan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097745 Alfred Chen陈 傲Consumer (Food, Catering)消费(食品、餐饮) ao.chen@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976672 Andy Chen陈思超Consumer (Beverage, Household Products) 消费(饮料、日用品) andy.chen@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092665 Alex Bai白 舸Market Strategy市场策略ge.bai@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097202 Peter Huang黄冠雄Consumer (Retailing), Home Appliances 消费(零售)、家电peter.huang@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976748 Vincent Liu刘健威Internet互联网jianwei.liu@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976680 Tim Li李凡丁Consumer (Apparel)消费(服装) fanding.li@gtjas.com.hk (86755) 23976750 Ivan Wu吴凱翔Research Assistant研究助理ivan.wu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092649 Jason Huang黄鸿昌Research Assistant研究助理jason.hc.huang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095347 Franco Li李 炜Research Assistant研究助理franco.li@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097204 Esabella Zhao赵舒蔓Research Assistant, Translator研究助理、翻译员zhaoshuman013399@gtjas.com (86755) 23976681 Penny Pan潘凌蕾Secretary, Translator秘书、翻译员penny.pan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092632 Morning Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQComposite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy买入Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate收集Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral中性Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce减持Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell卖出Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQComposite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform跑赢大市Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral中性Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform跑输大市Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. S] DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS (1) Except for SHENZHENINTERNATIONAL (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for UJUHOLDING (01948 HK),JINSHANGBANK (02558 HK),HAITIANANTENNA (08227 HK),Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with HANSOHPHARMACEUTICAL (03692 HK),COLOURLIFE SERVICES (01778 HK),ZENGAME (02660 HK),FRIENDTIMESINC (06820 HK),JD.COM (09618 HK),TONGCHENG-ELONGHOLDINGSLIMITED (00780 HK),BAICMOTOR- HSHARES (01958 HK),CHINAHIGHSPEEDTRANSMISSIONEQUIPMENT (00658 HK),HUISHANGBANK- H SHARES (03698 HK),XIAOMICORPORATION (01810 HK),SMIHOLDINGSGROUP (00198 HK),TSINGTAOBREWERY- HSHARES (00168 HK),AGILEGROUP (03383 HK),BANKOFGANSU (02139 HK),IRICOGROUPNEWENERGY (00438 HK),SINICHOLDINGS (02103 HK),ZGC TECLEASING (01601 HK),S-ENJOYSERVICE (01755 HK),SHANGHAIJINJIANGCAPITAL- HSHARES (02006 HK),AOYUANHEALTHYLIFE GROUP (03662 HK),WULINGMOTORS (00305 HK),YUZHOUGROUP (01628 HK),GOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES (00493 HK),XINYUAN PROPERTYMANAGEMENT (01895 HK),EVERSUNSHINELIFESTYLESERVICES (01995 HK),RONSHINECHINA (03301 HK),CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEMICAL- HSHARES (00386 HK),SINOPECENGINEERING- HSHARES (02386 HK),CHINASOUTHCITY (01668 HK),CHINA AOYUANPROPERTY (03883 HK),REDSUNPROPERTIES (01996 HK),NEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT (00017 HK),CHINARISUNGROUP (01907 HK),CHINASCEGROUP (01966 HK),POWERLONGREALESTATE (01238 HK),CENTRALCHINAREALESTATE (00832 HK),SHENZHEN INTERNATIONAL (00152 HK),BILIBILI-SW (09626 HK),A-LIVING (03319 HK),CIFIHOLDINGS (GROUP) (00884 HK),KWGGROUP (01813 HK),ZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS (02772 HK),ZHENROPROPERTIES (06158 HK),MODERNLAND (01107 HK),TAMJAIINTERNATIONAL (02217 HK),LOGANGROUP (03380 HK),FINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY (01502 HK),CGNMEIYAPOWER (01811 HK),CGNPOWER- HSHARES (01816 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are making, or will make a market in the securities in respect of NETEASE (09999 HK)/ JD.COM (09618 HK)/ SMIC (00981 HK)/ ALIBABAHEALTH (00241 HK)/ BIDU-SW (09888 HK)/ GEELYAUTOMOBILE (00175 HK)/ BYDCOMPANY- HSHARES (01211 HK)/ CHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK- HSHARES (00939 HK)/ INDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA- HSHARES (01398 HK)/ BOC HONGKONG (02388 HK)/ BANKOFCHINA- HSHARES (03988 HK)/ HSBC (00005 HK)/ PINGANINSURANCE- HSHARES (02318 HK)/ CHINA LIFEINSURANCE- HSHARES (02628 HK)/ TENCENT (00700 HK)/ LENOVO (00992 HK)/ CHINAMOBILE (00941 HK)/ HONGKONG EXCHANGESANDCLEARING (00388 HK)/ GALAXYENTERTAINMENT (00027 HK)/ GREATWALLMOTOR- HSHARES (02333 HK)/ AIA (01299 HK)/ SANDSCHINA (01928 HK)/ AACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS (02018 HK)/ SUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY (02382 HK)/ SINOPHARM GROUP- HSHARES (01099 HK)/ CNOOC (00883 HK)/ WUXIBIOLOGICS (02269 HK)/ MEITUANDIANPING (03690 HK)/ CHINATOWER CORPORATION- HSHARES (00788 HK)/ XIAOMICORPORATION (01810 HK)/ ALIBABA (09988 HK) mentioned in this Research Report. (6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 2021 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza,181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website:

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