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南京银行研究报告:高华证券-南京银行-601009-被挤压的净资产回报率、没有差异化、估值较高;首次评级为中性(摘要)-071221

研报作者:徐然 来自:高华证券 时间:2007-12-25 16:39:25
  • 股票名称
    南京银行
  • 股票代码
    601009
  • 研报类型
    (PDF)
  • 发布者
    yua****999
  • 研报出处
    高华证券
  • 研报页数
    14 页
  • 推荐评级
    中性(首次)
  • 研报大小
    377 KB
研究报告内容

2007年12月21日 南京银行(601009.SS) 高华证券投资研究1 2007年12月21日 首次评级 南京银行(601009.SS) 中性 被挤压的净资产回报率、没有差异化、估值较高;首次评级为中性(摘要) 投资观点 我们对南京银行的首次评级为中性。

南京银行是一家快速增长的地区性银行,最 近,该行在南京市的市场份额已逐渐扩大。

然而,我们认为南京银行的股价在未 来12个月的增长潜力有限,因为:1)在近期的IPO之后,南京银行的资本充足 率过高,这可能会挤压该行的净资产回报率;2)收紧的信贷调控可能会限制该行 多余资本金的应用以及净资产回报率的改善;3)颇具挑战性的全国扩张之路,因 为该行的战略并没有差异化的特点,而且还将在其目标市场上面临来自大型国有 银行和地方银行的激烈竞争;4)盈利增长预期已反映在了股价中。

增长 回报* 估值倍数 波动性 601009.SS 亚太银行行业平均水平 投资摘要:南京银行 低高 百分位20th 40th 60th 80th 100th *回报-资本回报率投资摘要指标的全面描述请参见本 报告的信息披露部分。

主要增长动力 我们预计净息差的扩张、稳健的资产负债增长、持续的费用控制以及2008年法 定税率的一次性下调将使南京银行在2006-2009年间的税后净利润实现34%的年 均复合增长率。

然而,考虑到该行近期IPO之后总股本规模较大,我们预计该股 的每股盈利增长水平一般(2006-2009年年均复合增长率为17%)。

风险 下行风险包括南京经济的严重下滑,大规模/积极的资金业务在加息环境下出现大 幅亏损。

上行风险包括全国市场扩张的执行情况好于预期。

估值 南京银行当前的2008年预期市盈率为29倍,我们认为该股的估值合理。

我们的 12个月市场相对目标价格为人民币17.4元,主要基于人民币13.59元的基本面 估值(基于我们的三阶段股息贴现模型而得出)加上28%的流动性溢价而得出。

行业背景 在我们研究的A股中,我们看好下列股票:工商银行A股(601398.SS)、招商银 行A股(600036.SS)、交通银行A股(601328.SS)和深发展(000001.SZ),其评级 均为买入。

*全文翻译将随后提供 所属投资名单 中性 行业评级:中性 中国: 银行 主要数据当前 股价(Rmb) 18.84 12个月目标价格(Rmb) 17.40 市值(Rmb mn / US$ mn) 34,604.4 / 4,695.7 外资持股比例(%) -- 12/0612/07E 12/08E 12/09E 每股盈利(Rmb) 0.490.450.640.78 每股盈利增长(%) 62.0 (7.9) 41.921.0 市净率(X) 8.73.63.33.0 市盈率(X) 38.241.529.324.2 股息收益率(%) 0.50.60.70.9 股价/拨备前营业利润39.527.819.616.6 拨备前营业利润增长(%) 28.241.842.117.9 拨备前资产回报率(%) 1.61.81.91.9 信贷成本(%) 0.40.30.50.5 总资产回报率(%) 1.121.181.301.33 净资产回报率(%) 25.213.511.713.1 股价走势图 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Jul-07 Oct-07 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 南京银行(左轴) 新华富时600指数(右轴) 股价表现(%) 3个月6个月12个月 绝对(6.2) -- -- 相对于新华富时600指数3.2 -- -- 资料来源:公司数据、高盛研究预测、FactSet(股价为12/21/2007收盘价) 徐然, CFA +86(10)6627-3192 | richard.xu@ghsl.cn北京高华证券有限责任公司 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与本研究报告所分析的企业存在业 务关系,并且继续寻求发展这些关系。

因此,投资者应当考虑到本公司可能 存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突,不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯 一因素。

有关分析师的申明,见信息披露之前的部分。

有关其他的重要信息 披露,请与您的投资代表联系。

北京高华证券有限责任公司 投资研究 2007年12月21日 南京银行(601009.SS) 高华证券投资研究2 南京银行:财务数据概要 损益表(Rmb mn) 12/0612/07E 12/08E 12/09E资产负债表(Rmb mn) 12/0612/07E 12/08E 12/09E 净利息收入1,351.91,962.02,554.72,992.3总贷款25,505.031,478.537,491.644,717.1 非利息收入150.6 (4.6) 67.591.9不良贷款629.6620.3693.1815.5 营业收入1,502.41,957.32,622.13,084.3贷款损失准备(675.2) (724.0) (881.1) (1,073.2) 非利息费用(625.6) (714.1) (855.8) (1,002.3)总生息资产57,050.480,264.794,756.9111,190.4 拨备前营业利润876.81,243.21,766.32,081.9其它无息资产916.93,319.34,173.45,485.2 总拨备支出(106.0) (89.0) (202.0) (242.2)资产合计57,967.383,583.998,930.3116,675.6 联营公司0.00.00.00.0客户存款43,858.254,181.865,560.079,327.5 税前利润770.81,154.21,564.31,839.8总计息负债52,916.070,317.284,248.3100,305.2 税金(176.2) (320.7) (381.2) (408.3)股东权益合计2,611.19,728.610,469.911,349.2 少数股东损益-- -- -- -- 净利润594.6833.51,183.01,431.5 CAMEL比率(%) 12/0612/07E 12/08E 12/09E C:核心资本充足率8.424.722.320.2 股息(120.7) (193.6) (248.1) (304.1) C:权益贷款比10.531.628.626.0 股息支付率(%) 20.323.221.021.2 C:权益资产比4.511.610.69.7 A:不良贷款率2.52.01.81.8 盈利增长动力(%) 12/0612/07E 12/08E 12/09EA:贷款损失拨备/不良贷款(107.2) (116.7) (127.1) (131.6) 净息差2.642.782.952.94 E:净息差2.642.782.952.94 拨备支出/总贷款0.430.290.550.55 E:非利息收入/营业收入10.02 NM 2.572.98 同比增长(%) E:费用收入比41.636.532.632.5 客户存款22.323.521.021.0 E:平均总资产回报率1.121.181.301.33 贷款27.823.919.019.2 L:贷存比率56.656.855.855.0 净利息收入21.145.130.217.1 手续费及佣金收入37.5 (9.7) 22.736.4 CAMELOT主要假设12/0612/07E 12/08E 12/09E 非利息收入47.7 (103.1) 1,553.536.2高盛CAMELOT隐含市净率(X) -- -- 2.4 -- 营业收入23.330.334.017.6高盛CAMELOT隐含市盈率(X) -- -- 17.1 -- 营业费用(17.2) (14.1) (19.8) (17.1)无风险回报率(%) 2.92.92.92.9 拨备前营业利润28.241.842.117.9股票风险溢价(%) 6.06.06.06.0 拨备支出(43.4) (16.0) 127.019.9 CAMELOT贝塔系数(X) -- -- 1.0 -- 税前利润55.149.735.517.6经风险调整的权益成本(%) -- -- 8.9 -- 净利润62.040.241.921.0调整后每股股息3年年均复合增长率(%) -- -- 17.3 -- 每股盈利62.0 (7.9) 41.921.0可持续净资产回报率预测(%) -- -- 14.0 -- 每股股息25.05.428.122.6长期股息支付率预测(%) -- -- 57.5 -- 扣除增长因素后(等同于债券)的市净率-- -- 1.6 -- 市场规模12/0612/07E 12/08E 12/09E 机构数量61.064.067.070.0贷款结构(%) 12/0612/07E 12/08E 12/09E 员工数量(000) 1,530.01,805.42,130.42,343.4商业/企业贷款77.275.576.076.3 每员工创造收入(US$) 123.1142.4167.0178.6个人住房贷款9.80.00.00.0 每员工创造净利(US$) 48.760.675.482.9消费贷款11.815.516.417.3 估值(当前股价计算) 12/0612/07E 12/08E 12/09E 杜邦分析(%) 12/0612/07E 12/08E 12/09E 净资产回报率25.213.511.713.1基本市盈率(X) 38.241.529.324.2 x杠杆比率4.48.711.110.1市净率(X) 8.713.563.313.05 =总资产回报率1.121.181.301.33股价/拨备前营业利润39.527.819.616.6 股息收益率(%) 0.50.60.70.9 占资产比例12/0612/07E 12/08E 12/09E 净利息收入2.542.772.802.78每股基本盈利(Rmb) 0.490.450.640.78 手续费及佣金收入0.110.070.070.08每股摊薄盈利(Rmb) 0.490.610.640.78 非利息收入0.28 (0.01) 0.070.09 营业收入2.822.772.872.86每股基本盈利增长(%) 62.0 (7.9) 41.921.0 营业费用1.171.010.940.93每股摊薄盈利增长(%) 62.024.05.421.0 拨备前营业利润1.651.761.941.93 贷款损失拨备0.200.130.220.22每股净资产(Rmb) 2.165.305.706.18 税前利润1.451.631.711.71每股股息(Rmb) 0.100.110.140.17 税金0.330.450.420.38 注:最后一个实际年度数据可能包括已公布和预测数据。

资料来源:公司数据、高盛研究预测 对此报告有贡献的分析师 徐然, CFA richard.xu@ghsl.cn 2007年12月21日 南京银行(601009.SS) 高华证券投资研究3 目录 Investment view: Suppressed ROE to weigh on stock performance 4 Premium valuation: could be pressured near-term 7 Near-term EPS growth modest, we see 17% 2006-2009EEPSCAGR 9 Key risks: local economic slowdown and sharp rise in interest rates 10 Company profile 10 Disclosures 13 The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of December 19,2007. 图表 1: SWOT analysis for BONJ Strengths 1. Reasonable local franchise in Nanjing evidenced by market share gains in recent years. 2. Relatively low exposure to higher-risk property and manufacturing sectors. 3. Solid capital levels could support long-term balance sheet growth and market expansion. 4. Strong expense discipline led to a decline in cost/income ratio in the past three years. Opportunities 1. Rise in loan/deposit ratio and large IPO proceeds should drive NIM expansion in the near term. 2. Cooperation with BNP (BNPParibas Bank)/ IFC (International Finance Corporation) should drive improvements in risk management and growth in retail banking. 3. Expansion outside of Nanjing provides new sources for loan and deposit growth. 4. Sizeable treasury businesses provide opportunity to enhance banking business with other financial institutions. Key issues / swing factors 1. Whether the bank can differentiate itself sufficiently from competitors. 2. Whether the bank can implement a consistent growth strategy in other regions. 3. How effectively BONJ can manage its interest rate profile in a rising rates environment. 4. Whether rapid loan growth may lead to loan seasoning, new NPL formation. 5. How fast can the bank deploy its excess capital. 6. Whether it can effectively control expenses given its rapid expansion plans. Weaknesses 1. Fee income contribution one of the lowest among publicly traded China banks. 2. Limited branch network relative to state-owned banks. 3. Geographic concentration in Nanjing area may expose BONJ to a local economic slowdown. 4. Volatile non-interest income given swings in mark-to- market value of the bank's bond investments. 5. Retail businesses remain weak and retail business development strategy remains unclear. 6. Weak brand recognition outside of Nanjing. 7. Lack of niche products that differentiate BONJ from other banks. Company specific vulnerabilities and risks 1. Expansion in unfamiliar regions could increase credit risks. 2. Higher interest risk profile vs. domestic peers given the bank's sizeable bond portfolio. 3. Sizeable treasury business makes the bank vulnerable to liquidity tightening and rising interest rates environment. 4. Fiercer competition from another Nanjing-based city bank; Bank of Jiangsu, and other bigger banks. 5. Macro tightening may slow loan growth and the pace of excess capital deployment, suppressing ROE for a longer period of time. Key investment themes in summary 1. Good growth potential in Nanjing city and surrounding areas. 2. Lack of clear strategy on retail business development and clear competitive strength in new markets. 3. Over-capitalization and China macro tightening may suppress ROE over the next 1-2 years. 4. Earnings growth could lag bank peers near-term given the recent sizeable share offering. 5. Valuation fully reflects growth potential. 6. High beta play that could post above-peer loan and earnings growth if credit tightening abates. Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities research estimates. 2007年12月21日 南京银行(601009.SS) 高华证券投资研究4 Investment view: Suppressed ROE to weigh on stock performance Bank of Nanjing operates a growing local banking franchise (61 branches in the city of Nanjing) that has gradually gained market share in recent years. As of June 30,2007, the bank had Rmb 75 billion in total assets and ranked 5th and 6th in loan and deposit market-share in Nanjing, respectively. However, we believe the following factors will cap the upside to BONJ’s share price over the next 12 months: (1) excess capital following the recent equity issuance could suppress ROE and earnings growth; (2) strict credit tightening by the government could limit excess liquidity deployment and ROE improvement; (3) a challenging national expansion path given undifferentiated strategy, lack of niche products and fierce competition from national and local banks in target markets; and (4) a full valuation that has priced in any earnings growth potential. Over-capitalization could suppress ROE and earnings growth We believe BONJ is over-capitalized with 24.8% tier ICAR following the recent equity issuance in July 2007, in which it more than tripled its equity base, but also increased its number of shares outstanding by more than 50%. BONJ’s current core capital ratio is high compared to the smaller banks median of just below 10% and the minimum regulatory requirement of 4%. We believe this will suppress BONJ’s ROE in coming years as we see limited channels to deploy the excess capital near-term as: Government credit tightening will likely limit loan growth in 2008. We expect BONJ’s loan growth to moderate to 19% over the next two years, below management’s original target of 30% annually over the next three years. High quality acquisition targets may be difficult to find.1) Many well-run banks will likely be reluctant to sell, in our view, due to solid earnings growth in recent years,2) many shareholding banks and larger city commercial banks are also looking for acquisition opportunities to enter new markets/boost balance sheet growth, and 3) Many small banks may consider an IPO vs sale to larger banks to maximize returns due to the strong performance of the A-share market. Accordingly, we expect the majority of the new capital raised via the recent IPO to remain underutilized and expect BONJ’s ROE to decline to a low 11.7% in 2008E and pick up only modestly to 13.1% in 2009E. 图表 2: Core capital ratio well above peer average (%) 图表 3: But ROE will likely trend below peers after A- share offering (%) Tier 1 Capital 200520062007E 2008E 2009E 2006-2009E 2007-2009E ICBC 8.11 12.23 11.74 11.79 11.93 (0.30) 0.19 CCB 11.11 10.01 10.21 10.44 10.25 0.23 0.03 BOCGroup 8.08 11.44 12.48 12.31 12.19 0.75 (0.29) Median 8.11 11.44 11.74 11.79 11.93 0.23 0.03 BoCom 8.89 8.31 10.38 10.06 9.86 1.55 (0.52) CMB 5.63 9.63 9.43 9.97 10.56 0.93 1.13 CITIC 5.72 6.57 14.14 12.87 11.93 5.35 (2.21) SPDB 4.13 5.44 5.35 5.77 5.78 0.35 0.44 Industrial 4.90 4.86 8.48 7.78 7.19 2.32 (1.30) Hua Xia 5.12 4.82 4.56 4.55 4.40 (0.42) (0.16) SZDB 3.71 3.68 5.90 7.26 7.76 4.08 1.87 BONB 8.68 9.71 18.76 17.89 16.60 6.89 (2.17) BOB 7.59 8.60 20.16 19.13 18.00 9.40 (2.17) BONJ 8.71 8.39 24.75 22.29 20.21 11.82 (4.53) Median 5.67 7.44 9.90 10.02 10.21 3.20 (0.91) Change ROE200520062007E 2008E 2009E 2006-2009E 2007-2009E ICBC 14.45 13.47 15.88 20.66 22.28 8.81 6.40 CCB 19.50 14.99 19.87 23.79 24.13 9.14 4.26 BOCGroup 12.14 14.06 14.55 18.25 18.84 4.78 4.29 Median 14.4514.0615.8820.6622.288.81 4.29 BoCom 13.68 14.14 16.92 19.91 21.31 7.17 4.39 CMB 15.64 16.74 21.99 26.83 27.22 10.47 5.23 CITIC 20.12 15.88 12.93 13.42 14.55 (1.33) 1.62 SPDB 17.28 16.48 19.70 30.80 30.86 14.38 11.17 Industrial 21.55 26.53 25.89 31.44 34.77 8.24 8.88 Hua Xia 13.98 12.98 17.98 21.44 21.71 8.73 3.73 SZDB 6.08 25.07 23.51 23.41 22.54 (2.53) (0.98) BONB 24.01 23.48 15.57 16.09 17.75 (5.73) 2.18 BOB 29.80 24.21 19.16 17.47 18.46 (5.75) (0.71) BONJ 19.4825.2213.51 11.71 13.12 (12.10) (0.39) Median 18.3820.1118.5720.6721.512.922.95 Change Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. 2007年12月21日 南京银行(601009.SS) 高华证券投资研究5 Share issuance could be highly EPS dilutive in 2007E and 2008E The recent share issuance could be highly EPS dilutive in the next few years, in our view. We forecast an EPSCAGR of 17% over 2006-2009E for BONJ, which is well below the median of 37% for smaller China banks. 图表 4: EPS growth could trail China bank peers… 图表 5: …despite in-line PPOP growth EPS growth (yoy) 3 Yr CAGR 2 Yr CAGR 200520062007E 2008E 2009E 2006-2009E 2007-2009E ICBC 25% -2% 62% 44% 20% 41% 31% CCB -9% -13% 48% 40% 17% 34% 28% BOCGroup 16% 30% 33% 35% 14% 27% 24% Median 16% -2% 48% 40% 17% 34% 28% BoCom 232% 33% 46% 50% 21% 38% 35% CMB 14% 45% 66% 44% 24% 44% 34% CITICNANA 34% 57% 20% 36% 37% SPDB 30% 18% 54% 88% 23% 53% 52% Industrial 41% 53% 51% 49% 25% 42% 37% Hua Xia 36% 4% 51% 36% 18% 34% 27% SZDB -13% 411% 49% 50% 25% 41% 37% BONB 8% 18% 19% 41% 25% 28% 33% BOB 10% -2% 48% 20% 19% 29% 20% BONJ 68% 62% 24% 5% 21% 17% 13% Median 30% 33% 49% 47% 22% 37% 34% PPOP growth 3 Yr CAGR 2 Yr CAGR200520062007E 2008E 2009E 2006-2009E 2007-2009E ICBC 6% 16% 45% 20% -100% -88% -96% CCB 17% 20% 50% 19% 16% 28% 18% BOCGroup 7% 22% 34% 14% 14% 20% 14% Median 7% 20% 45% 19% 14% 20% 14% BoCom 56% 34% 54% 28% 21% 34% 25% CMB 22% 36% 60% 27% 23% 36% 25% CITIC 18% 34% 53% 28% 20% 33% 24% SPDB 25% 29% 40% 21% 19% 26% 20% Industrial 29% 45% 69% 23% 24% 37% 24% Hua Xia 21% 33% 35% 2% 19% 18% 10% SZDB -1% 48% 30% 27% 21% 26% 24% BONB 18% 27% 35% 35% 25% 31% 30% BOB 6% 42% 33% 28% 23% 28% 25% BONJ 83% 28% 38% 46% 18% 33% 31% Median 22% 34% 39% 27% 21% 32% 24% Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. A challenging national expansion path Headquartered in the city of Nanjing, the provincial capital of Jiangsu Province, BONJ is within a reasonable distance from many attractive markets, such as Shanghai and Zhejiang in the affluent Yangtze River delta region. In addition, there is ample room for expansion within Jiangsu province, which has the third highest GDP among China provinces. We believe Zhejiang and Jiangsu are ideal markets for city commercial banks due to the high concentration of private enterprises and SMEs (see Exhibit 7), while Shanghai boasts a dynamic economy with an concentrated deposit base. BONJ plans to target Hangzhou (the provincial capital of Zhejiang), Shanghai and Hu’xi (located in Jiangsu Province) during the initial phase of its national expansion plans. 图表 6: BONJ’s targeted expansion markets are all prosperous markets Top ten provinces by GDP in 2006 图表 7: High industrial output contribution from private and small enterprise 2,620 2,2082,165 1,574 1,2501,166 1,037 925864787 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Gu an gd on g Sh an do ng Jia ng su Zh eji an g He na n He be i Sh an gh ai Lia on ing Si ch ua n Be ijin g (Rmb bn) Industrial output Rmb bn % of total Rmb bn % of total By nature Heavy industry 1,217 44% 2,847 70% Light industry 1,569 56% 1,233 30% By ownership State-owned/controlled enterprises 402 14% 329 8% Private enterprises 2,384 86% 3,752 92% By size Large-medium 1,510 54% 2,568 63% Small 1,276 46% 1,513 37% Total 2,786 100% 4,080 100% Zhejiang Jiangsu Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. Source: Zhejiang and Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics. However, we believe BONJ will face many challenges on its national expansion path due to the following reasons: 1) Fierce competition from national and local banks in targeted markets. Many city commercial banks, such as the Bank of Hangzhou (source: Hangzhou Daily) and the Bank of Jiangsu (source: Securities Times), and even some rural commercial banks, such as the 2007年12月21日 南京银行(601009.SS) 高华证券投资研究6 Changshu Rural Commercial Bank (source: Reuters), are also planning to expand in the Yangtze River delta region. 2) Lack of differentiated strategy and niche products, particularly when competing with the above mentioned banks which specialize in SME lending coupled with strong local market knowledge. Unfavorable risk/reward position for the treasury business We believe the size of BONJ’s treasury business is too large, and has often been more detrimental than beneficial to the bank. As of June 30,2007, investments and inter-bank liabilities constituted more than 50% of total earnings assets and inter-bank liabilities constituted 26% of interest-bearing liabilities, the highest and second highest among listed China banks. More importantly, the bank had, at times, used inter-bank borrowing to fund part of its investment portfolio. The outsized treasury business has increased BONJ’s interest-rate risk exposure, in our view. 图表 8: Investment related gains/losses have led to volatile non-interest income… 图表 9: …Cost of inter-bank liabilities exceeded yields on investment and inter-bank lending at times (40) 103 157 (60) (100) (50) 0 50 100 150 200 2004200520061H07 (annualized) Total non-interest income (Rmb mn) 2004200520061H07 Inter-bank assets 2.08% 3.07% 3.32% 1.71% Investments 3.47% 3.57% 2.98% 3.74% Inter-bank liabilities 3.00% 2.55% 3.02% 3.52% Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates As shown in Exhibit 8, gains/losses associated with the investment portfolio have contributed significantly to volatility in BONJ’s non-interest income, partly due to low fee income contribution. In addition, the cost of inter-bank liabilities has often exceeded yield on inter-bank assets and even yield on the bank’s investment at times, which has pressured the bank’s NIM. Market share gains in Nanjing encouraging BONJ benefited from the strong economic growth in Nanjing, posting solid loan and deposit growth over the past three years. The city of Nanjing posted solid GDP and disposable income growth with a 3-yr CAGR of 20.5% and 23.5%, respectively from 2003 to 2006. The bank has also gained market share in Nanjing (see Exhibits 10 and 11), partly benefiting from its campaign of being the “Nanjing residents’ local bank”, which has improved its brand name in the region. BONJ currently ranks 6th in both deposit and loan market share in Nanjing with 7.8% and 5.3% market share, respectively. However, we are still concerned about the potential increase in competition from state-owned banks longer-term as Nanjing remains a less favorable market for SME-focused banks. As the capital of the economically developed Jiangsu Province, Nanjing’s economy and financial service activities are still somewhat dominated by headquarters of the provincial state-owned enterprises, 2007年12月21日 南京银行(601009.SS) 高华证券投资研究7 provincial government and their affiliated entities, and SME only contribute 26% of total industrial output in Nanjing, compared to the 40% national average. Positively, these issues should be mitigated by strong local government support, as we expect that the local government would want to support a local city bank by encouraging local enterprises and government affiliates to bank with BONJ. 图表 10: BONJ is gaining loan market share… 图表 11: …and deposit market share Rmb mn 200420052006 Nanjing loans 406,210 445,257 478,518 yoy growth (%) 20.3 9.6 7.5 Bank of Nanjing loans 15,648 20,068 25,505 yoy growth (%) NA 28.2 27.1 market share (%) 3.9 4.5 5.3 Rmb mn 200420052006 Nanjing deposits 423,401 508,332 560,130 yoy growth (%) 16.9 20.1 10.2 Bank of Nanjing deposits 28,346 35,859 43,858 yoy growth (%) 26.5 22.3 market share (%) 6.7 7.1 7.8 Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. Premium valuation: could be pressured near-term At 29X our 2008EEPS estimate, BONJ is trading at a slight premium to the listed A-share shareholding banks median of 26X. While we view the valuation as full particularly given our expectation of more modest EPS growth for BONJ over the next couple of years, the bank’s long- term growth potential should protect the stock price from further downside, in our view. Our 12-month target price of Rmb17.4 is based on our new valuation framework (for details, refer to our report China: Portfolio Strategy - A volatile path: CSI300 to 4700 by end-2008E, dated November 1,2007). We have adjusted our fundamental DDM valuation for A-share banks using a lower cost of equity, in line with the framework suggested by our strategy team (for details, refer to our report Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy - China A-HPremiums: Unjustifiable in theory, dated November 1,2007). Subsequently, we have applied a 28% liquidity premium (for details, refer to our report A-share banks: relative GARP within A-shares, dated November 1,2007) to derive our market-relative target price. 2007年12月21日 南京银行(601009.SS) 高华证券投资研究8 图表 12: China banks valuation table 19-Dec-07 Mkt Cap Ratings Price (US$ bn) 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 2007E 2008E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E H-shares(HKD) ICBC(H) 1398.HK (HKD) Buy 5.54 237.2 2.93 2.5014.811.79.3 7.7 1.373.3862% 44% 20% 20.7 22.3 BOC(H) 3988.HK (HKD) Neutral 3.82 124.3 2.011.72 10.89.07.3 6.1 2.633.7233% 35% 14% 18.2 18.8 CCB(H) 0939.HK (HKD) Buy 6.63 198.6 3.162.6114.211.69.3 7.6 3.253.1648% 40% 17% 23.8 24.1 BoCom(H) 3328.HK (HKD) Buy 10.76 67.6 3.162.6516.813.210.7 8.4 1.512.3846% 50% 21% 19.9 21.3 CMB (H) 3968.HK (HKD) Neutral 31.95 60.2 5.614.3623.017.615.4 11.9 0.761.0866% 44% 24% 26.8 27.2 Citic (H) 0998.HK (HKD) Neutral 5.05 25.3 2.011.7315.712.59.8 7.8 1.161.9134% 57% 20% 13.4 14.5 H-share average 3.152.5915.912.610.3 8.3 1.782.6148% 45% 19% 20.5 21.4 Excluding CMBH-shares 2.652.2414.511.69.3 7.5 1.982.9144% 45% 18% 19.2 20.2 A-shares(Rmb) ICBC(A) 601398.SS (CNY) Buy 7.88 350.9 4.554.0723.019.214.5 12.6 0.932.1762% 44% 20% 20.7 22.3 BOC(A) 601988.SS (CNY) Neutral 6.40 216.6 3.683.3119.717.213.3 11.7 1.512.0333% 35% 14% 18.2 18.8 CCB(A) 601939.SS (CNY) Neutral 9.74 303.5 5.064.4022.819.515.0 12.9 0.942.1348% 40% 17% 23.8 24.1 BoCom(A) 601328.SS (CNY) Buy 14.49 94.7 4.654.0924.720.415.7 13.0 0.691.0846% 50% 21% 19.9 21.3 CMB(A) 600036.SS (CNY) Buy 36.91 72.4 7.085.7729.023.419.4 15.7 0.630.8666% 44% 24% 26.8 27.2 Citic (A) 601998.SS (CNY) Sell 10.02 52.1 4.363.9434.028.421.2 17.7 0.560.8834% 57% 20% 13.4 14.5 SPDB 600000.SS (CNY) Neutral 47.37 27.5 5.835.2721.317.312.2 10.2 0.571.0054% 88% 23% 30.8 30.9 Industrial 601166.SS (CNY) Neutral 48.09 32.1 6.605.8022.417.815.5 12.5 0.991.4751% 49% 25% 31.4 34.8 SZDB 000001.SZ (CNY) Buy 35.72 11.4 4.643.7022.918.312.5 10.3 0.000.0049% 50% 25% 23.4 22.5 Hua Xia 600015.SS (CNY) Sell 18.39 10.3 5.104.4625.821.911.3 9.5 0.570.7751% 36% 18% 21.4 21.7 BONB 002142.SZ (CNY) Neutral 21.62 7.2 6.285.5941.633.333.9 27.2 0.590.8419% 41% 25% 16.117.7 BOB 601169.SS (CNY) Neutral 20.20 16.8 4.453.9327.022.619.6 15.9 1.051.1648% 20% 19% 17.518.5 BONJ 601009.SS (CNY) Neutral 18.79 4.6 3.303.0429.224.119.5 16.6 0.560.7224% 5% 21% 11.713.1 A-share average 5.044.4126.421.817.2 14.3 0.741.1645% 43% 21% 21.222.1 Big banks average 4.433.9321.819.114.3 12.4 1.132.1148% 39% 17% 20.921.7 Shareholding banks average 5.474.7225.721.115.4 12.7 0.570.8750% 54% 22% 23.924.7 City Bank Average 4.67 4.19 32.626.724.319.90.73 0.91 31% 22% 22% 15.116.4 P/B (X) Div yld (%) ROE (%)P/E (X) P/PPOP (X) EPS growth (%) Note: The exchange rates we use to estimate the EPS/BVPS data for H-share listed banks: HKD/CNY=0.962 in 2007 (US$/CNY=7.5),0.916 in 2008 (5% Rmb appreciation), and 0.872 in 2009 (5% Rmb appreciation). Source Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. We derive our 12-month fundamental valuation of Rmb13.59 based on our CAMELOT 3- stage DDM model In line with our new A-share valuation framework, we have adopted a new risk-free rate (RFR) of 5% and an equity risk premium (ERP) of 4.5% for A-share companies to derive the new cost of equity (COE) for the next ten years, maintaining a RFR of 5% and an ERP of 6% for the years beyond, at which time we expect the COE for A-shares will converge with that for H-shares. We use our CAMELOT three-stage DDM valuation model as the primary tool to value BONJ. Our key assumptions include: A forward beta of 1.00. Stage 13-year (through 2007E-2009E) DPSCAGR of 17.3%, derived from our earnings model. Stage 2 DPSCAGR of 12.4% based on 15.5% ROE and 20% dividend payout ratio. Long-term (third stage) sustainable dividend growth rate of 6%, similar to other listed China banks and in-line with our long-term nominal GDP growth rate assumption for China. 2007年12月21日 南京银行(601009.SS) 高华证券投资研究9 图表 13: We estimate 2.39X target P/B on our 2008EBVPS based on our GSCAMLEOT 3-stage DDM model 3-Stage Dividend Discount Capital Asset Pricing Model Model Assumptions CAMELOT- Total Potential Mkt. Adj. Disc. Terminal Stage 3 CAMELOT- Stock Target Current upside Rating Risk- Risk CAMELOTRisk Rate Div. No. of (a) (b) Div Growth No. of Div. Growth Target implied code Price Price (%) Free Prem. Quotient Prem. (d) CAGRYrs ROEPayout =a*(1-b) Yrs ROEPayout =a*(1-b) P/BP/E China A-shares Rmb Rmb ICBC (A-share) 601398.SS 10.11 7.88 28% Buy 5.00% 6.00% 0.90x 5.4% 10.4% 31.4% 320.7% 50% 10.4% 1116.7% 64% 6.0% 4.5627.3 BOC (A-share) 601988.SS 6.50 6.40 2% Neutral 5.00% 6.00% 0.94x 5.6% 10.6% 24.0% 318.0% 50% 9.5% 1114.0% 60% 5.7% 2.9220.9 CCB(A-share) 601939.SS 11.75 9.74 21% Neutral 5.00% 6.00% 0.92x 5.5% 10.5% 28.0% 323.0% 50% 11.5% 1117.2% 65% 6.0% 4.7727.7 BoCom (A-share) 601328.SS 20.45 14.49 41% Buy 5.00% 6.00% 0.95x 5.7% 10.7% 38.3% 319.9% 38% 12.4% 1116.7% 64% 6.0% 5.1330.7 CMB (A-share) 600036.SS 52.25 36.91 42% Buy 5.00% 6.00% 0.90x 5.4% 10.4% 44.0% 326.9% 50% 13.4% 1118.5% 68% 6.0% 7.8342.4 CITIC (A-share) 601998.SS 9.09 10.02 -9% Sell 5.00% 6.00% 0.94x 5.6% 10.6% 38.0% 314.0% 20% 11.3% 1113.5% 56% 6.0% 3.0922.9 SPDB 600000.SS 66.19 47.37 40% Neutral 5.00% 6.00% 1.02x 6.1% 11.1% 52.0% 330.8% 60% 12.3% 1116.3% 63% 6.0% 6.3739.1 Industrial 601166.SS 67.99 48.09 41% Neutral 5.00% 6.00% 1.01x 6.1% 11.1% 41.5% 330.0% 57% 12.9% 1120.0% 70% 6.0% 7.2936.5 SZDB 000001.SZ 53.95 35.72 51% Buy 5.00% 6.00% 1.04x 6.3% 11.3% 40.7% 322.5% 45% 12.4% 1118.0% 65% 6.3% 5.4830.4 HuaXia 600015.SS 11.42 18.39 -38% Sell 5.00% 6.00% 1.19x 7.1% 12.1% 38.5% 314.2% 20% 11.4% 1114.5% 59% 6.0% 2.4817.1 BONB 002142.SZ 20.90 21.62 -3% Neutral 5.00% 6.00% 0.92x 5.5% 10.5% 31.0% 316.5% 20% 13.2% 1117.5% 66% 6.0% 4.7427.1 BOB 601169.SS 21.20 20.20 5% Neutral 5.00% 6.00% 0.95x 5.7% 10.7% 29.0% 318.0% 32% 12.2% 1114.9% 60% 6.0% 3.6424.5 BONJ 601009.SS 17.40 18.79 -7% Neutral 5.00% 6.00% 1.00x 6.0% 11.0% 17.3% 315.5% 20% 12.4% 1114.0% 58% 6.0% 2.3917.1 Stage 1 Stage 2 Note: 1) Our 12-month target prices are derived by applying a 28% liquidity premium to their fundamental valuation which is based on our three-stage DDM model; 2) Key risks to our Buy and Neutral rated A-share banks include macro overheating/over-tightening, and worse-than-expected banks’ earnings; risks for Sell rated Citic Bank’s A-shares and Hua Xia Bank include: better-than-expected earnings growth and franchise improvement. Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Near-term EPS growth modest, we see 17% 2006-2009EEPSCAGR We expect incremental NIM expansion, healthy balance sheet growth, continued expense management efforts, relatively low credit costs and a one-time statutory tax rate reduction in 2008 to contribute to a 34% NPATCAGR from 2006-2009E. We however expect EPS growth to be more modest (17% EPSCAGR over 2006-2009E) due to the increased number of shares outstanding following the bank’s recent IPO. Key earnings growth drivers include: NIM expansion of 14 bp in 2007E and 17 bp in 2008E followed by flattish NIM in 2009E. We assume the Rmb6.7bn IPO proceeds (about 9.8% of average earnings assets in 2007E) will generate an average 3.1% yield (in-line with the current yield on BONJ’s investment portfolio), contributing approximately three bp to NIM expansion in 2007E. Furthermore, we think the bank’s sizeable investment portfolio (investment securities accounted for 39% of total earnings assets as of December 31,2006) should benefit from rising investment yield in a rising interest rate environment. We expect loan growth to moderate to 19% annually over the next two years in light of our expectation of persistent credit tightening in China amidst rising inflationary pressures. However, we believe loan growth could trend back to 25%-30% annually if credit tightening abates. We expect fee income to decline 10% in 2007E due to intensified competition and lack of focus at BONJ. We expect moderate net fee income growth of 23% and 36% in 2008E and 2009E, respectively, off a low base, partly benefiting from the more active involvement of BNPParibas, BONJ’s strategic investor, in BONJ’s retail business build-out. Expense growth will likely pick up due to rapid national expansion. However, we expect expense growth to modestly lag revenue growth, creating positive operating leverage. We expect credit costs to trend up modestly to a more normalized level of about 54 bp in 2008E from 42 bp in 2006 and our expectation of 28 bp in 2007E due to rising new NPL formation and continued loan loss reserve build. We project net new NPL formation of 31 bp and 39 bp in 2008E and 2009E, respectively, and expect the bank to increase its NPL coverage ratio to 131.6% from 107.2% at June 30,2007. 2007年12月21日 南京银行(601009.SS) 高华证券投资研究10 Key risks: local economic slowdown and sharp rise in interest rates A material slowdown in Nanjing’s economy could lead to a significant rise in NPL’s and credit costs at BONJ. A sharp increase in interest rates could lead to material losses in the treasury business given BONJ’s sizeable investment portfolio. Upside risks include earlier-than-expected loosening of monetary policy and better-than- expected execution of BONJ’s national expansion plans, which could lead to higher-than- expected balance sheet and earnings growth. Company profile With Rmb 80.6 bn in total assets as of September 312007, BONJ currently operates 61 branches in Jiangsu province with a high concentration in Nanjing. The bank ranked 6th in terms of loan/deposit market-share in Nanjing in 2006, only behind the big four state-owned banks and Bank of Communications. BONJ started expanding outside Nanjing in 2006, and plans to evolve into a national bank, focusing on the Yangtze River delta region. In 2005, BONJ partnered with BNPParibas, a major French financial institution with successful retail/investment banking businesses, and has since worked closely with BNP in eight different areas: retail banking, capital markets, retail loans, wealth management, risk management, information & technology, corporate governance, finance and human resources. The bank was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in July 2007. Public shareholders currently hold approximately 34.3% of BONJ’s outstanding shares. The major shareholders include Nanjing State-owned Asset Investment & Management Holdings (Group) Co., Ltd. (13.0% of total shares), BNP (12.6% of total shares), Nanjing Xingang Hi-tech Co.Ltd. (11.2% of total shares) and IFC (3.3% of total shares). 2007年12月21日 南京银行(601009.SS) 高华证券投资研究11 图表 14: BONJ income statement (Rmb mn) Yoy growth rate Rmb mn 2004200520062007E 2008E 2009E 200520062007E 2008E 2009E Interest income 1,454 1,765 2,268 3,275 4,209 5,004 21.4% 28.5% 44.4% 28.5% 18.9% Interest expense 572 649 916 1,313 1,655 2,012 13.5% 41.2% 43.3% 26.0% 21.6% Net interest income 882 1,116 1,352 1,962 2,555 2,992 26.5% 21.1% 45.1% 30.2% 17.1% Other operating income (42) 102 151 (5) 67 92 -343.6% 47.7% -103.1% -1553.5% 36.2% Fees and commissions—net 28 42 58 52 64 88 50.1% 37.5% -9.7% 22.7% 36.4% Other income (net) (70) 60 92 (57) 3 4 -185.3% 54.9% -161.8% -105.4% 34.1% Total operating revenues 841 1,218 1,502 1,957 2,622 3,084 44.9% 23.3% 30.3% 34.0% 17.6% Operating expenses 466 534 626 714 856 1,002 14.6% 17.2% 14.1% 19.8% 17.1% Staff costs 211 238 299 364 446 535 12.8% 25.5% 21.9% 22.5% 19.9% Business tax and surcharges 52 73 94 117 146 175 41.1% 28.7% 23.5% 25.4% 19.7% Other expenses 203 223 233 233 263 292 9.6% 4.4% 0.4% 12.9% 10.9% Operating profit before provisions 375 684 877 1,243 1,766 2,082 82.6% 28.2% 41.8% 42.1% 17.9% Loan loss provisions 80 187 106 89 202 242 135.3% -43.4% -16.0% 127.0% 19.9% Profit before tax 295 497 771 1,154 1,564 1,840 68.4% 55.1% 49.7% 35.5% 17.6% Taxes 77 130 176 321 381 408 68.5% 35.9% 82.1% 18.9% 7.1% Net profits 218 367 595 833 1,183 1,431 68% 62% 40% 42% 21% Dividends - 97 121 194 248 304 25% 60% 28% 23% Memo: Dividend payout ratio 0.0% 26.3% 20.3% 23.2% 21.0% 21.2% Wtd ave no of shares 1,207 1,207 1,207 1,364 1,837 1,837 0% 13% 35% 0% EPS (Rmb) 0.18 0.30 0.49 0.45 0.64 0.78 62% -8% 42% 21% DPS (Rmb) - 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.17 25% 5% 28% 23% Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. 2007年12月21日 南京银行(601009.SS) 高华证券投资研究12 图表 15: BONJ balance sheet (Rmb mn) Yoy growth rate 2004200520062007E 2008E 2009E 200520062007E 2008E 2009E Assets Cash on hand and in central bank 2,556 2,669 3,930 8,181 10,807 13,323 4% 47% 108% 32% 23% Due from other banks 5,131 4,661 5,471 11,459 11,581 11,730 -9% 17% 109% 1% 1% Investments 14,509 20,538 22,455 29,514 35,314 42,160 42% 9% 31% 20% 19% Held-to-maturity debt securities - - - 8,316 9,960 11,900 NANANA 20% 19% Available-for-sale debt securites 10,312 9,419 11,868 10,289 12,323 14,723 -9% 26% -13% 20% 19% Available-for-sale equity investments 9 9 148 172 172 172 0% 1617% 17% 0% 0% Trading securities 4,189 11,110 10,439 10,737 12,860 15,365 Loans, net of provision 15,128 19,434 24,830 30,754 36,611 43,644 28% 28% 24% 19% 19% Gross loans and advances 15,648 20,068 25,505 31,479 37,492 44,717 28% 27% 23% 19% 19% As % of total Corporate loans 83.0% 78.0% 77.9% 75.5% 76.0% 76.3% Individual loans 11.5% 10.8% 11.8% 15.5% 16.4% 17.3% Discounted bills 5.5% 11.2% 10.3% 9.1% 7.6% 6.4% Provision for NPL loans (520) (634) (675) (724) (881) (1,073) 22% 6% 7% 22% 22% NPLs - five category 682 672 630 620 693 815 -1% -6% -1% 12% 18% NPL loan ratios 4.4% 3.3% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% -23% -26% -20% -6% -1% Fixed assets 391 408 432 542 656 765 4% 6% 25% 21% 17% Interest receivables 164 188 222 408 408 408 15% 18% 84% 0% 0% Deferred tax assets 159 128 103 147 147 147 -20% -20% 44% 0% 0% Other assets 233 568 526 2,579 3,405 4,498 143% -7% 390% 32% 32% Total assets 38,272 48,593 57,967 83,584 98,930 116,676 27% 19% 44% 18% 18% Memo: earning assets incl securities 37,700 47,771 57,050 80,265 94,757 111,190 27% 19% 41% 18% 17% Liabilities Customer deposits 28,346 35,859 43,858 54,182 65,560 79,328 27% 22% 24% 21% 21% As % of total deposits Corporate 76.6% 69.5% 73.1% 76.1% 77.4% 76.5% Demand Deposit 54.9% 44.7% 49.3% 50.2% 49.3% 48.4% Time deposits 21.7% 24.8% 23.8% 25.9% 28.1% 28.1% Individual 14.9% 16.6% 15.8% 13.8% 14.5% 14.4% Demand Deposit 5.8% 5.9% 5.6% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6% Time deposits 9.1% 10.7% 10.2% 9.0% 9.8% 9.8% Other deposits 8.5% 13.9% 11.2% 10.1% 8.1% 9.1% Due from other financial institutions 5,762 6,916 8,258 15,335 17,888 20,178 20% 19% 86% 17% 13% Long term and sub debts 0800800800800800 NA 0% 0% 0% 0% Deferred tax liabilities 02544311 NA 76% -94% -44% -44% Other liabilities 2,351 2,708 2,147 3,220 3,863 4,637 15% -21% 50% 20% 20% Interest payable 148 180 249 315 348 383 Total liabilities 36,607 46,489 55,356 73,855 88,460 105,326 27% 19% 33% 20% 19% Memo: funded liabilities 479,510 564,834 666,779 783,933 927,007 1,102,794 18% 18% 18% 18% 19% Capital Share capital 1,207 1,207 1,207 1,837 1,837 1,837 0% 0% 52% 0% 0% Reserves 153 592 764 6,732 6,732 6,732 287% 29% 782% 0% 0% Retained earnings 305 306 641 1,160 1,901 2,780 0% 110% 81% 64% 46% Total shareholders' equity 1,665 2,104 2,611 9,729 10,470 11,349 26% 24% 273% 8% 8% BVPS- basic (Rmb) 1.38 1.74 2.16 5.30 5.70 6.18 26% 24% 145% 8% 8% Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. 2007年12月21日 南京银行(601009.SS) 高华证券投资研究13 分析师申明 本人,徐然, CFA,在此申明,本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了本人对上述公司或其证券的看法。

此外,本人薪金的任何部分不曾与,不与,也将不会与 本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关。

投资摘要 投资摘要部分通过将一只股票的主要指标与其行业和市场相比较来评价该股的投资环境。

所描述的四个主要指标包括增长、回报、估值倍数和波动性。

增长、 回报和估值倍数都是运用数种方法综合计算而成,以确定该股在地区研究行业内所处的百分位排名。

每项指标的准确计算方式可能随着财务年度、行业和所属地区的不同而有所变化,但标准方法如下: 增长是下一年预测与当前年度预测的综合比较,如每股盈利、EBITDA和收入等。

回报是各项资本回报指标一年预测的加总,如CROCI、平均运用资本回报率 和净资产回报率。

估值倍数根据一年预期估值比率综合计算,如市盈率、股息收益率、EV/FCF、EV/EBITDA、EV/DACF、市净率。

波动性根据12个月的历史 波动性计算并经股息调整。

Quantum Quantum是提供具体财务报表数据历史、预测和比率的高盛专有数据库,它可以用于对单一公司的深入分析,或在不同行业和市场的公司之间进行比较。

信息披露 主要分析师负责的股票研究范围 徐然, CFA:亚太金融行业、中国金融行业 亚太金融行业:Axis Bank、Bangkok Bank、Bank Central Asia、Bank Danamon、Bank Mandiri、Bank of Ayudhya、Bank of Baroda、北京银行、中国银行 (A)、中国银行(H)、交通银行、交通银行、Bank of East Asia、南京银行、宁波银行、Bank Rakyat Indonesia、BOCHong Kong (Holdings)、Bursa Malaysia、Cathay Financial、Chang Hwa Commercial Bank、中信银行(A)、中信银行(H)、建设银行、建设银行、中国人寿(H)、中国人寿(A)、招商银行 (A)、招商银行(H)、Chinatrust Financial Holdings、Chong Hing Bank、中信国际金融、Daegu Bank、Dah Sing Banking Group、Dah Sing Financial Holdings、DBSGroup Holdings、First Financial Holdings、富邦银行、Fubon Financial Holdings、Hana Financial Group、Hang Seng Bank、HDFCBank、 Hong Kong Exchanges、Housing Development Finance Corporation、HSBCHoldings、华夏银行、工银亚洲、ICICIBank、Indiabulls Financial Services、 Indian Overseas Bank、工商银行(A)、工商银行(H)、Industrial Bank Of Korea、Kasikornbank、Kookmin Bank、Korea Exchange Bank、Kotak Mahindra Bank、Krung Thai Bank、Mega Financial Holdings、Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.、人保财险、中国平安(H)、中国平安(A)、Polaris Securities、Punjab National Bank、Pusan Bank、Samsung Card、浦发银行、深发展、Shin Kong Financial Holdings、Shinhan Financial Group、Siam Commercial Bank、 Singapore Exchange、SinoPac Holdings、Standard Chartered Bank、State Bank of India、Taishin Financial Holdings、Thanachart Capital、TISCOBank、 United Overseas Bank、Wing Hang Bank、Wing Lung Bank、Woori Finance Holdings、Yuanta FHC 中国金融行业:中信证券、宏源证券、兴业银行 与公司有关的法定披露 以下信息披露了高盛高华证券有限责任公司(“高盛高华”)与北京高华证券有限责任公司(“高华证券”)投资研究部所研究的并在本研究报告中提及的公司之 间的关系。

高盛高华在过去12个月中曾从下述公司获得投资银行服务报酬:北京银行(Rmb20.06) 高盛高华在今后3个月中预计将从下述公司获得或寻求获得投资银行服务报酬:北京银行(Rmb20.06) 高盛高华在过去12个月中与下述公司存在投资银行客户关系:北京银行(Rmb20.06) 没有对下述公司的具体信息披露:中国银行(A) (Rmb6.49)、中国银行(H) (HK$3.90)、交通银行(Rmb14.92)、交通银行(HK$10.98)、南京银行 (Rmb18.84)、宁波银行(Rmb21.55)、中信银行(A) (Rmb10.10)、中信银行(H) (HK$5.00)、建设银行(Rmb9.81)、建设银行(HK$6.68)、招商银行(A) (Rmb37.91)、招商银行(H) (HK$31.85)、华夏银行(Rmb18.44)、工商银行(A) (Rmb8.01)、工商银行(H) (HK$5.72)、兴业银行(Rmb49.09)、浦发银行 (Rmb49.13)、深发展(Rmb36.75) 2007年12月21日 南京银行(601009.SS) 高华证券投资研究14 公司评级、研究行业及评级和相关定义 买入、中性、卖出:分析师建议将评为买入或卖出的股票纳入地区投资名单。

一只股票在投资名单中评为买入或卖出由其相对于所属研究行业的潜在回报决 定。

任何未获得买入或卖出评级的股票均被视为中性评级。

每个地区投资评估委员会根据25-35%的股票评级为买入、10-15%的股票评级为卖出的全球指导原 则来管理该地区的投资名单;但是,在某一特定行业买入和卖出评级的分布可能根据地区投资评估委员会的决定而有所不同。

区域买入或卖出名单是以潜在回 报规模或实现回报的可能性为主要依据的投资建议。

潜在回报:代表当前股价与一定时间范围内预测目标价格之差。

分析师被要求对研究范围内的所有股票给出目标价格。

潜在回报、目标价格及相关时间范围在 每份加入投资名单或重申维持在投资名单的研究报告中都有注明。

研究行业及评级:分析师给出下列评级中的其中一项代表其根据行业历史基本面及/或估值对研究对象的投资前景的看法。

具吸引力(A):未来12个月内投资前 景优于研究范围的历史基本面及/或估值。

中性(N):未来12个月内投资前景相对研究范围的历史基本面及/或估值持平。

谨慎(C):未来12个月内投资前景劣 于研究范围的历史基本面及/或估值。

暂无评级(NR):在高盛高华于涉及该公司的一项合并交易或战略性交易中担任咨询顾问时并在某些其他情况下,投资评级和目标价格(如有的话)已经根据高华证 券的政策予以除去。

暂停评级(RS):由于缺乏足够的基础去确定投资评级或价格目标,我们已经暂停对这种股票给予投资评级和价格目标。

此前对这种股票作 出的投资评级和价格目标(如有的话)将不再有效,因此投资者不应依赖该等资料。

暂停研究(CS):我们已经暂停对该公司的研究。

没有研究(NC):我们没有对该 公司进行研究。

不存在或不适用(NA):此资料不存在或不适用。

无意义(NM):此资料无意义,因此不包括在报告内。

2006年6月26日以前的公司评级,行业评级及相关定义 我们的评级制度要求分析师将其研究范围中的股票进行排名,并且给予每种股票三级投资评级中的其中一级(见下文定义部分)。

评级需要根据评级分布指引 进行,该指引规定领先评级的股票不应超过25%,而落后评级的不应少于10%。

分析师也应给与每种股票三个研究看法中其中一项(见下文定义部分),这 代表分析师根据历史基本面及估值对研究对象投资前景的看法。

定义 领先(OP):我们预期这种股票在未来12个月内的回报超越分析师研究范围中总回报的中位数。

持平(IL):我们预期这种股票在未来12个月内的回报与分析师研 究范围中总回报的中位数持平。

落后(U):我们预期这种股票在未来12个月内的回报落后分析师研究范围中总回报的中位数。

行业评级:具吸引力(A):未来12个月内投资前景优于研究范围的历史基本面及/或估值。

中性(N):未来12个月内投资前景相对研究范围的历史基本面及/或 估值持平。

谨慎(C):未来12个月内投资前景劣于研究范围的历史基本面及/或估值。

当前推荐名单(CIL):我们预期此名单上的股票在未来12个月可获得大约15%-20%的绝对总回报。

此名单只包括获得“领先”评级的股票,并且必须有12个月的 目标价格。

此名单中的股票在90天后会自动被除名,除非负责的分析师及相关地区投资监察委员会进行更新。

一般披露 本报告在中国由高华证券分发。

本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用。

本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息,但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性,客户也不应该依赖该信息是 准确和完整的。

我们会适时地更新我们的研究,但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做。

除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外,绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的 时候不定期地出版。

高盛高华为高华证券的关联机构,从事投资银行业务。

高华证券、高盛高华及它们的关联机构与本报告中涉及的大部分公司保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关系。

我们的销售人员、交易员和其他专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易战略。

我 们的自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策。

高华证券及其关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员,不包括股票分析师,将不时地对本研究报告中所涉及公司的证券或其衍生工具(包括期权和认股权证)持有 多头或空头头寸,担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手,或买卖上述证券或衍生工具。

在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的司法管辖区内,本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约。

本报告不构成个人投资建议,也没有考 虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需求。

客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,以及(若有必要)寻求专家的意见,包括税务意 见。

本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动。

过去的表现并不代表未来的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本 金。

某些交易,包括牵涉期货、期权和其它衍生工具的交易,有很大的风险,因此并不适合所有投资者。

外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自 这一投资的收入产生不良影响。

版权所有2007年北京高华证券有限责任公司 未经北京高华证券有限责任公司事先书面同意,本材料的任何部分均不得(i)以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品,或(ii)再次分发。

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