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吉利汽车研究报告:辉立证券-吉利汽车-0175.HK-2014年“危”,“機”並存-140130

研报作者:章晶 来自:辉立证券 时间:2014-01-30 10:55:35
  • 股票名称
    吉利汽车
  • 股票代码
    0175.HK
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    (PDF)
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    ta***ng
  • 研报出处
    辉立证券
  • 研报页数
    7 页
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研究报告内容

140130-TC-SH-COR-Geely_175_HK_-newD 吉利汽車吉利汽車吉利汽車吉利汽車(175.HK) 2014年年年年““““危危危危””””,,,,““““機機機機””””並存並存並存並存!!!! Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Bloomberg ││││ Reuters ││││ POEMS 175.HK ││││ 175.HK ││││ 175.HK 行業行業行業行業:汽車製造汽車製造汽車製造汽車製造 Phillip Securities Research 30 January 2014 評級:增持收市價: 3.19HKD目標價: 3.63HKD 公司概要公司概要公司概要公司概要 吉利汽車為中國四大自主品牌汽車製造商之一吉利汽車為中國四大自主品牌汽車製造商之一吉利汽車為中國四大自主品牌汽車製造商之一吉利汽車為中國四大自主品牌汽車製造商之一,,,,總部設在杭州總部設在杭州總部設在杭州總部設在杭州,,,,在在在在 浙江臨海浙江臨海浙江臨海浙江臨海、、、、寧波寧波寧波寧波、、、、路橋和上海路橋和上海路橋和上海路橋和上海、、、、蘭州蘭州蘭州蘭州、、、、湘潭湘潭湘潭湘潭、、、、濟南濟南濟南濟南、、、、成都等地建有成都等地建有成都等地建有成都等地建有 製造基地製造基地製造基地製造基地,,,,在澳大利亞擁有在澳大利亞擁有在澳大利亞擁有在澳大利亞擁有DSI自動變速器研發中心和生產廠自動變速器研發中心和生產廠自動變速器研發中心和生產廠自動變速器研發中心和生產廠。

現現現現 有帝豪有帝豪有帝豪有帝豪、、、、全球鷹全球鷹全球鷹全球鷹、、、、英倫等三大品牌英倫等三大品牌英倫等三大品牌英倫等三大品牌30多款乘用車產品多款乘用車產品多款乘用車產品多款乘用車產品。

投資概要投資概要投資概要投資概要 ·吉利汽車公佈2013年全年汽車銷量為54.95萬輛,同 比增長13.7%,與行業平均水平基本一致,但較其年初目 標56萬輛低了1.9%或10500輛。

銷量未達預期的主要原 因在於下半年出口受到人民幣升值和部分海外市場政局動 盪的打擊,增速有所下滑,全年出口銷量同比增20%至 12萬輛左右,既低於年初預計的15萬輛。

·分品牌系列看,全球鷹品牌同比增9%至約19.5萬輛; 帝豪品牌實現銷量超20萬輛,同比增約27%;英倫品牌 則同比微降2%至不到15萬輛。

·受較高售價的SUV車型和EC系列轎車銷量持續攀升帶 動,公司的銷量結構進一步優化,兩者的月均銷量分別達 到5234輛和1.7萬輛,占總銷量比重繼續擴大,分別為 11.5%和37%。

受益於公司的產品結構升級效果顯著,平 均售價和毛利率水平將進一步提高。

·管理層公佈2014年銷量目標定為58萬輛,較2013年 增長約6%,不僅大幅低於中國汽車工業協會預期的行業 整體8-10%的增幅,也是為公司四年來最低。

此保守的 目標設定反映了公司對14年整體車市看法審慎,因海外 市場動盪,品牌再次梳理和銷售渠道調整將為其帶來新的 挑戰。

·14年計劃推出的新車包括新一代帝豪EC7和數款改款 車型(GX7,SC7和遠景)。

另外,其籌劃已久的首款中型 七座SUV車型EX8有可能轉到全球鷹品牌旗下更名為 GX8,於年中上市。

今明兩年還有望推出基於金剛平臺的 小型SUV/MPV新車型。

年底前一款全新B級轎跑車KC (定位高於EC8)有望下線,最快將於2015年推出,該 車廣受好評的外觀顯示吉利在造型設計上再次邁上新的臺 階,如能在製造工藝、內飾細節等方面跟進,該車型未來 市場表現將非常令人期待。

吉利和沃爾沃合作開發的新車 型估計要到2016年以後才能推出。

·源於最新的盈利預測,我們給予公司12個月3.63港元 的目標價,相當於其2013/2014年9.2/8.2/6.6倍的市盈 率,重申增持評級。

研究員 章晶 zhangjing@phillip.com.cn +8663512937 吉利汽車吉利汽車吉利汽車吉利汽車 Rating 2.00增持增持增持增持 - Previous Rating 2.00 增持 Target Price (HKD) 3.63 - Previous Target Price (HKD) 4.65 Closing Price (HKD) 3.19 Expected Capital Gains (%) 13.8% Expected Dividend Yield (%) 1.6% Expected Total Return (%) 15.4% Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) 0.88 Market Cap. (HKD bn) 28,077 Enterprise Value (HKD mn) 19,192 52 w eek range (HKD) 2.84 - 4.75 Closing Price in 52 w eek range Key Financial Summary FYE 12/1212/13F 12/14F 12/15F Revenue (RMB mn) 24,62830,00434,00440,193 Net Profit, adj. (RMB mn) 2,0402,5362,8173,522 EPS, adj. (RMB) 0.270.310.340.43 P/E (X),adj.9.58.17.25.8 BVPS (RMB) 1.591.842.162.49 P/B (X) 1.61.41.21.0 DPS (RMB) 0.030.040.050.05 Div. Yield (%) 1.2% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% Source: Bloomberg, PSR est. *All multiples & yields based on current market price Valuation Method PE 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 29-Jan -13 01-M ar-13 01-A p r-13 01-M ay-13 01-Jun -13 01-Jul-13 01-A ug -13 01-S ep -13 01-O ct-13 01-N o v-13 01-D ec-13 01-Jan -14 Volume, mn 175 hk equity HSI 0% 50% 100% 吉利汽车吉利汽车吉利汽车吉利汽车(175.HK) Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 30 January 2014 下半年銷量增速回軟下半年銷量增速回軟下半年銷量增速回軟下半年銷量增速回軟,,,,全年增全年增全年增全年增14%:::: 吉利汽車公佈2013年全年汽車銷量為54.95萬輛,同比 增長13.7%,與行業平均水平基本一致,但較其年初目標 56萬輛低了1.9%,約10500輛。

銷量未達預期的主要原 因在於出口受到人民幣升值和部分海外市場政局動盪的打 擊,下半年增速逐漸下滑,全年出口量同比增20%至12 萬輛左右,既低於年初預計的15萬輛,也低於九月下調後 的13萬輛。

Fig 1. View of Geely’s monthly export sales 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Fig 2.Geely’s sales by regions 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 export domestic Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities 三大子品牌兩增一減三大子品牌兩增一減三大子品牌兩增一減三大子品牌兩增一減:::: 分品牌系列看,全球鷹品牌受益GX7新車型貢獻銷量,同 比增9%至約19.5萬輛;帝豪品牌有賴於EC7旺銷推動, 實現銷量超20萬輛,同比增約27%;英倫品牌則缺乏有 競爭力車型同比微降2%至不到15萬輛。

SUV與高端車型占比提升與高端車型占比提升與高端車型占比提升與高端車型占比提升:::: 受較高售價的SUV車型和EC系列轎車銷量持續攀升帶 動,公司的銷量結構進一步優化,兩者的月均銷量分別達 到5234輛和1.7萬輛,占總銷量比重繼續擴大,分別為 11.5%和37%。

我們預計,受益於公司的產品結構升級效 果顯著,其平均售價和毛利率水平將進一步提高。

Fig 3. Geely’s monthly sales by models 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Ja n- 09 A pr -0 9 Ju l- 09 O ct -0 9 Ja n- 10 A pr -1 0 Ju l- 10 O ct -1 0 Ja n- 11 A pr -1 1 Ju l- 11 O ct -1 1 Ja n- 12 A pr -1 2 Ju l- 12 O ct -1 2 Ja n- 13 A pr -1 3 Ju l- 13 O ct -1 3 GC7 GX7 GPanda GVision GFree cruiser EC7 EC8 SC3 SC6 SC7 SX7 Kingkong KingkongR Source: iFinD, Phillip Securities 14年目標制定偏謹慎年目標制定偏謹慎年目標制定偏謹慎年目標制定偏謹慎,,,,同比增幅同比增幅同比增幅同比增幅6%:::: 管理層公佈2014年銷量目標定為58萬輛,較2013年增 長約6%,不僅大幅低於中國汽車工業協會預期的行業整 體8-10%的增幅,也是為公司四年來最低。

我們認為, 此保守的目標設定反映了公司對14年整體車市看法審慎, 因海外市場動盪,品牌再次梳理和銷售渠道調整將為其帶 來新的挑戰。

Fig 4. Geely’s monthly sales -5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000 55,000 65,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 20092010201120122013 Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities 新車繼續穩步推出新車繼續穩步推出新車繼續穩步推出新車繼續穩步推出:::: 公司14年計劃推出的新車包括新一代搭載了1.3T和CVT 的EC7和數款改款車型(GX7,SC7和遠景)。

另外,其籌 劃已久的首款中型七座SUV車型EX8有可能轉到全球鷹 品牌旗下更名為GX8,於年中上市。

今明兩年還有望推出 基於金剛平臺的小型SUV/MPV新車型。

吉利汽车吉利汽车吉利汽车吉利汽车(175.HK) Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 30 January 2014 年底前一款全新B級轎跑車KC(定位高於EC8)有望下 線,最快將於2015年推出,該車廣受好評的外觀顯示吉 利在造型設計水平上再次邁上新的臺階,如能在製造工 藝、內飾細節等方面跟進,該車型未來市場表現將非常令 人期待。

Fig 5. Geely’s KC model Source:Phillip Securities 沃爾沃資產注入還無時間表沃爾沃資產注入還無時間表沃爾沃資產注入還無時間表沃爾沃資產注入還無時間表:::: 在與沃爾沃的合作方面,成都工廠生產的S60L和大慶工 廠生產的X90有望在今年上市,吉利和沃爾沃合作開發的 新車型估計要到2016年以後才能推出,對於沃爾沃資產 是否會注入上市公司,暫時還無法預測時間表。

估值估值估值估值 源於最新的盈利預測,我們給予公司12個月3.63港元的 目標價,相當於其2013/2014年9.2/8.2/6.6倍的市盈率, 重申增持評級。

風險因素風險因素風險因素風險因素 經濟下滑嚴重削弱汽車消費需求, 原材料成本大幅上升, 市場競爭激烈程度和降價幅度超出預期, 海外市場風險, 與沃爾沃合作進展情況不及預期等。

Fig 6. Peer Comparison Ticker Name Market Cap (HKD mil) Est P/B Est P/B (Y+1) Est P/E Est P/E (Y+1) EV/BEst EBITDAP/B ROA LF (%) ROE (%) VOWGRVW 9258201.00.99.17.97.61.02.632.2 DDAIFUSDAIMLER 5487111.41.311.811.09.41.64.514.6 BMWGRBMW 7062291.61.410.19.98.81.63.917.8 RNOFPRENAULT 1984610.70.712.87.510.90.71.47.3 UGFPPSA 424480.50.5 N/A 43314.00.4 -6.6 -42.4 175 HKEquity GEELY 275491.31.17.96.84.91.48.218.2 2333 HKEquityGWM 1307222.92.310.08.28.93.418.229.8 1211 HKEquityBYD 1086482.82.687.048.418.33.00.690.4 489 HKEquity Dongfeng 1021871.21.18.27.44.11.37.918.1 200625 CHEquityCHANGAN 653982.72.114.39.024.72.96.69.6 1114 HKEquityBRILLIANCE 592043.42.713.310.8 N/A 4.018.927.1 2238 HKEquityGAC 580551.21.113.39.2 N/A 1.31.73.8 TTMTINTATA 1285292.21.78.26.94.03.06.328.1 7203 JPEquityTOYOTA 15774761.41.310.39.69.81.44.18.5 7267 JPEquityHONDA 5347671.31.111.49.78.61.33.17.8 7201 JPEquityNISSAN 3095360.90.910.58.69.80.92.99.9 7270 JPEquityFUJIHEAVY 1726562.82.410.510.65.93.211.522.9 7269 JPEquitySUZUKI 1153731.21.113.913.14.21.23.77.5 7261 JPEquityMAZDA 1168682.52.013.09.87.92.92.87.1 7211 JPEquityMITSUBISHI 534892.01.810.510.15.51384.1 N/A 005380 KSEquityHYUNDAI 3654131.00.8 N/A N/A 6.91.17.416.4 000270 KSKIA 1580700.90.86.25.74.01.110.725.5 FUSFORD 4811622.92.410.011.24.83.02.936.6 GMUSEquity GM 3964601.61.510.98.83.01.83.418.1 Average 3076351.71.510.89.18.51.9 Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities 吉利汽车吉利汽车吉利汽车吉利汽车(175.HK) Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 30 January 2014 FYEDECFY11 FY12 FY13FFY14FFY15F Valuation Ratios P/E (X), adj.12.69.58.17.25.8 P/B (X) 2.01.61.41.21.0 Dividend Yield (%) 1.1% 1.2% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% Per share data (RMB) EPS, (Basic) 0.2070.2710.3110.3450.431 EPS, (Diluted) 0.1920.2630.3070.3410.426 DPS 0.0280.0310.0400.0460.054 BVPS 1.291.591.842.162.49 Growth & Margins (%) Growth Revenue 4.3% 17.5% 21.8% 13.3% 18.2% EBIT 11.6% 13.8% 21.4% 12.2% 23.9% Net Income, adj.12.8% 32.2% 24.3% 11.1% 25.0% Margins Gross margin 18.2% 18.5% 19.3% 19.6% 19.9% EBIT margin 11.4% 11.1% 11.0% 10.9% 11.4% Net Profit Margin 7.4% 8.3% 8.5% 8.3% 8.8% Key ratios (%) ROE 17.5% 18.2% 18.2% 17.3% 18.6% ROA 5.6% 6.5% 6.7% 6.4% 7.0% Income Statement (RMB mn) Revenue 20,96524,62830,00434,00440,193 Gross profit 3,8204,5595,7826,6588,006 EBIT 2,3942,7243,3063,7114,596 Profit before tax 2,1832,5293,1253,4954,365 Tax (467) (479) (581) (664) (829) Profit for the period 1,7162,0502,5442,8313,536 Minority interests (172) (10) (8) (14) (14) Total capital share 7,4507,4668,2678,2678,267 Net profit 1,5432,0402,5362,8173,522 Source: PSR 吉利汽车吉利汽车吉利汽车吉利汽车(175.HK) Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 30 January 2014 吉利汽车吉利汽车吉利汽车吉利汽车(175.HK) Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 30 January 2014 PHILLIPRESEARCHSTOCKSELECTIONSYSTEMS We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. 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For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on . 2014 Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4 -5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price 吉利汽车吉利汽车吉利汽车吉利汽车(175.HK) Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 30 January 2014 聯絡資料聯絡資料聯絡資料聯絡資料( ( ( (各地區成員公司各地區成員公司各地區成員公司各地區成員公司)))) 新加坡新加坡新加坡新加坡 SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore 179101 電話: (65) 65336001 傳真: (65) 65356631 網頁: .sg 馬來西亞馬來西亞馬來西亞馬來西亞 MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block BLevel 3 Megan Avenue II, No.12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng,50450 Kuala Lumpur 電話: (603) 21628841 傳真: (603) 21665099 網頁: .my 香港香港香港香港 HONGKONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/FUnited Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong 電話: (852) 22776600 傳真: (852) 28685307 網頁: 日本日本日本日本 JAPAN PhillipCapital Japan K.K. Nagata-cho Bldg., 8F,2-4-3 Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0014 電話: (81-3) 35953631 傳真: (81-3) 35953630 網頁:.co.jp 印尼印尼印尼印尼 INDONESIA PTPhillip Securities Indonesia ANZTower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A Jakarta 10220 – Indonesia 電話: (62-21) 57900800 傳真: (62-21) 57900809 網頁: .co.id 中國中國中國中國 CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd No 436 Heng Feng Road, Greentech Tower Unit 604, Postal code 200070 電話: (86-21) 51699400 傳真: (86-21) 60911155 網頁: 泰國泰國泰國泰國 THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand 電話: (66-2) 6351700 / 22680999 傳真: (66-2) 22680921 網頁: .co.th 法國法國法國法國 FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Floor,35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008 Paris France 電話: (33-1) 45633100 傳真: (33-1) 45636017 網頁: 英國英國英國英國 UNITEDKINGDOM King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AS 電話: (44-20) 74265950 傳真: (44-20) 76261757 網頁: 美國美國美國美國 UNITEDSTATES Phillip Futures Inc 141 WJackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL 60604 USA 電話: +1.312.356.9000 傳真: +1.312.356.9005 澳洲澳洲澳洲澳洲AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 12,15 William Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel (613) 96188238 Fax (613) 92002272 網頁: .au

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