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研究报告:国泰君安-2008厦门策略会嘉宾:全球宏观形势展望-071226

研报作者:屈宏斌 来自:国泰君安 时间:2007-12-26 10:20:47
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屈宏斌汇丰中国首席经济学家Tel: +85228222025 hongbinqu@hsbc.com.hk 世界经济 全球宏观形势展望 2007年12月 次贷危机 为世界经济增长增加不确定性 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 3 为什么会有这样一场危机 美国在本世纪初实施的低利率政策 在新兴市场国家央行储备管理大量投资的背景下私人部门投资 者追逐高收益的结果 金融创新的飞速发展,切断了借方和贷方的联系 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 4 以按揭信贷资产为主的资产证券化发展迅猛 Source: Thomson Financial Datastream -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 909294969800020406 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Total Mortgages Other % GDP% GDPIssuers of ABS - Net acquisition of financial assets A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 5 信用危机突然爆发 Source: Thomson Financial Datastream 0123456 0304050607 0123456 3 month Euro$ - middle rate 3 month Treasury Bill - middle rate % %US A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 6 解决市场失灵的方法... 银行在其年报和财务报表中披露证券化资产头寸 Northern Rock式的存款担保 成立清算信托公司出面处理坏账 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 7 ...这些方法的局限性在于 国际间协调合作的困难 可能无法及时安排资金援助 成本太高,尤其是从政治角度上来说 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 8 可能发生的情况 资金市场紧缩…… ……紧跟着信贷紧缩,限制对次贷及其他借款人放贷 联邦储备局被迫降息,其他国家央行紧随其后 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 9 美元疲软 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 9901030507 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 EURGBP USDUSD Source: Thomson Financial Datastream A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 10 更多的复杂因素出现: Source: Thomson Financial Datastream 60 70 80 90 100 110 030405060708 60 70 80 90 100 110 $ against industrialised w orld $ against emerging w orld Index Jan 2003=100 Index Jan 2003=100 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 11 新兴市场国家通货膨胀开始抬头 Source: Thomson Financial Datastream -10 0 10 20 30 0001020304050607 -10 0 10 20 30 Brazil China India Mex ico Russia % Yr % YrConsumer price inflation A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 12 尤其是中国…… Source: Thomson Financial Datastream -10 0 10 20 30 0001020304050607 -10 0 10 20 30 Brazil China India Mex ico Russia % Yr % YrConsumer price inflation A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 13 大宗商品价格高企 Source: Thomson Financial Datastream 0 50 100 150 200 250 0002040608 0 20 40 60 80 100 Economist food prices (LHS) Brent oil prices (RHS) Price index ($) U$/BBL A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 14 最糟糕的情况可能是…… 信用紧缩要求降息 但通货膨胀限制降息的空间 刺激美国经济增长的政策导致美元暴跌... ...使美元作为国际主要储备货币的地位受到威胁 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 15 几种可能的情景 世界经济很快恢复此前快速增长态势20% 信用紧缩得以避免40% 陷入衰退40% 可能性 美国:陷入衰退的可能性 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 17 住房建筑市场大幅下滑 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 123456789101112 Quarter -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Av erage of prior episodes From Q206 % Qtr AnnResidential construction:% Qtr Ann Prior episodes of double-digit declines in residential construction lasting four or more quarters, starting from: Q266, Q273, Q281, and Q290 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 18 历史比较:GDP增长 -4 -2 02468 123456789101112 Quarter -4 -2 02468 Av erage of prior episodes From Q206 % Qtr AnnGDP:% Qtr Ann Prior episodes of double-digit declines in residential construction lasting four or more quarters, starting from: Q266, Q273, Q281, and Q290 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 19 历史比较:失业率 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 123456789101112 Quarter -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Av erage of prior episodes From Q206 pptCumulativ e change in unemploy ment rate:ppt -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 123456789101112 Quarter -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Av erage of prior episodes From Q206 pptCumulativ e change in unemploy ment rate:ppt Prior episodes of double-digit declines in residential construction lasting four or more quarters, starting from: Q266, Q273, Q281, and Q290 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 20 美国经济更具弹性了 Source: Thomson Financial Datastream 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 70737679828588919497000306 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 Standard dev iation of monthly pay roll changes betw een major serv ice sectors* 10-y r mov ing av g10-y r mov ing av g * Payroll changes for nine service sectors are included A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 21 实际房地产价格下跌与失业率上升 Source: HSBC, Thomson Financial Datastream 3456789 10 11 747780838689929598010407 3456789 10 11 Real house price declines Unemploy ment rate %% A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 22 货币条件看起来偏紧… Source: HSBC -2 -1 012345 9798990001020304050607 94 96 98 100 102 104 Real Fed funds (left ax is) MCI (right ax is) % IndexTIGHT LOOSE Fed funds, mortgage rate or corporate spreads: 100bp rise = 100bp tighter 10% fall in S&P500 or 10% rise in dollar = 100bp tighter $10 rise in oil price = 100bp tighter A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 23 …但剔除石油后还不算太糟! Source: HSBC -2 -1 01 2345 9798990001020304050607 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 Real Fed funds (left ax is) MCI ex -oil (right ax is) % IndexTIGHT LOOSE Fed funds, mortgage rate or corporate spreads: 100bp rise = 100bp tighter 10% fall in S&P500 or 10% rise in dollar = 100bp tighter A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 24 衰退的可能性—金融指标 Source: HSBC Financial variables: stock market changes, corporate spreads, Treasury yield curve, energy prices -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 858789919395979901030507 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Recessions Probability of recession A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 25 衰退的可能性-经济及金融指标 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 6770737679828588919497000306 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Recessions Probability of recession Source: HSBC Economic and financial variables: consumer expectations (Conference Board), ISM manufacturing, profit share of GDP, building permits, stock market changes, Treasury yield curve A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 26 企业经营及社会就业状况 SP500企业收益较20世纪90年代高 整体经济利润率和现金流由平稳转为下降 股权回购后的留利为负 历史经验表明股权回购景气的结束会对企业经营产生压力 只有少数几个行业的小企业在创造新的就业 如果不是劳动力参与率下降的话失业率可能已经超过5% A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 27 失业登记人数历史比较 Source: Haver Analytics 250 300 350 400 450 500 1357911131517192123 Month 250 300 350 400 450 500 1989-901994-951998-99 2000-012006-07 '000Weekly av erage initial jobless claims:'000 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 28 结论 商业信贷的可获得性是下一步增长还是衰退的关键因素 目前的经济数据变化很快,但是还没有全面恶化 联储还不太可能大幅放松政策 欧元区:金融市场仍然疲弱 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 30 欧元区三季度GDP增长2.7% A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 31 欧洲通货膨胀近几个月有所上升 食品和能源价格上涨大幅推高10月通货膨胀数字 并将继续使通胀保持高位知道2008年1季度 如果石油价格企稳,明年年底的通货膨胀可能低于2% A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 32 石油和食品价格将继续推高通胀,08年1季度以后可能回落 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 33 名义通胀与核心通胀率 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 34 欧洲央行保持利率不变 欧洲央行12月会议认为欧元区经济足够强劲并决定保持利率水平不变(4%) 但金融市场的问题仍然存在,货币市场紧缩,利率高企 背后隐藏的问题仍然是信贷危机 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 35 银行热衷于持有现金 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 36 金融市场仍然疲弱 金融市场资金面趋紧,银行热衷于持有现金 08年初金融市场也难以恢复正常 欧洲央行的下一步政策应考虑延长再融资的期限 日本:近期没有衰退风险 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 38 三季度GDP环比增长超出潜在产出,并有可能持续 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 39 近期没有衰退风险 大型制造企业和非制造企业指标下跌,但销售及收益预期上调 近期经济没有衰退风险,日本央行2008年秋季之前都不太可能加息 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 40 企业经济状况——大型企业 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 41 消费增长持续攀升 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 42 原油价格上涨可能在明年上半年推高CPI,但美国经济放缓将使CPI回到0上下 的水平 汇率展望 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 44 欧元实际有效汇率已经远远超出其长期平均水平 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 45 欧元兑美元汇率仍在七年上升区间,美元长期走软但短期有技术反弹的迹象 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 46 日元成为目前资本市场危机的避风港,因为最少资金大进大出的风险 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 47 汇丰主要货币汇率预测-美欧及EMEA(vs. USD) end period 20042005200620072008 Q4 Q4 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Americas Canada (CAD) 1.201.171.121.161.151.060.991.000.981.001.051.05 Mexico (MXN) 11.210.611.010.811.010.810.910.910.911.211.211.4 Brazil (BRL) 2.652.342.172.142.051.931.841.851.851.901.901.95 Argentina (ARS) 2.973.033.103.063.103.093.153.183.233.253.313.32 Chile (CLP) 557514536532539528511510510510510510 Western Europe Eurozone (EUR=) 1.361.181.271.321.331.351.421.451.451.401.351.35 Other Western Europe UK (GBP=) 1.921.721.871.961.962.012.042.042.041.971.831.83 Sweden (SEK) 6.657.967.336.847.026.866.476.146.076.216.226.22 Norway (NOK) 6.066.776.526.236.105.915.425.245.245.435.565.56 Switzerland (CHF) 1.141.321.251.221.221.231.171.151.161.171.191.19 EMEA Czech Republic (CZK) 22.324.622.320.921.121.319.318.818.619.319.619.3 Hungary (HUF) 181213215190186183180171171171174170 Poland (PLN) 3.013.253.132.902.902.802.702.602.502.482.502.40 Russia (RUB) 27.728.826.726.426.025.825.025.125.125.125.625.6 Turkey (TRY)* 1.351.351.521.421.391.311.211.231.301.291.261.23 Ukraine (UAH) 5.315.055.055.055.055.055.055.055.055.055.055.05 Israel (ILS) 4.344.614.354.204.214.184.104.054.054.054.054.05 South Africa (ZAR) 5.636.337.777.017.307.006.906.807.007.307.507.50 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 48 汇丰主要货币汇率预测-亚太地区(vs. USD) end period 20042005200620072008 Q4 Q4 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Asia/Pacific Japan (JPY) 102118118119118123115115113113115115 Australia (AUD=) 0.780.730.750.790.810.850.880.900.920.870.840.83 New Zealand (NZD=) 0.720.680.650.710.720.770.760.780.800.760.730.72 China (CNY) 8.288.077.917.817.737.617.517.407.307.207.107.00 Hong Kong (HKD) 7.787.757.797.777.817.827.767.807.807.807.807.80 India (INR) 43.445.045.844.243.240.539.739.038.538.538.037.5 Indonesia (IDR) 927298259203899691259040914586008600860086008600 Malaysia (MYR) 3.803.783.693.533.463.453.413.383.343.303.263.22 Philippines (PHP) 56.353.050.149.148.246.345.343.043.042.042.041.0 Singapore (SGD) 1.631.661.591.531.521.531.491.501.461.451.441.43 South Korea (KRW) 10351008946930941923915905905900895895 Taiwan (TWD) 31.732.833.132.633.132.732.733.032.532.532.532.5 Thailand (THB) 38.941.037.635.532.331.831.833.033.032.532.031.5 Vietnam (VND) 157451588516025160551602016130162171621716217162171617616135 股权投资 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 50 2008股权投资基调 宽泛意义下的‘增长’又开始流行(比如:美国及欧洲的科技产业,奢侈品,电信行业,长周期 资本品如国防和航空等。

) 通货膨胀(大宗商品价格的上涨意味着资源类产品投资有利可图,但应避开某些消费品如食品 加工相关行业) 气候变化(替代能源行业前景可期) 企业并购:等待泡沫出现 金融部门复苏 政治:摇摆不定 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 51 近期美国投资收益率有所反弹 曾经发生于90年代中期的美国经济增长及美元反弹可能再现 联储数据表明:企业(包括银行)股权回购在三季度仍然在继续 美国股权资产投资吸引力上升 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 52 90年代中期的反弹可能再现 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 53 亚洲仍然是新兴市场投资热点 分地区来看,全球新兴市场中,欧洲、中东和非洲地区(EMEA)国家股权投资收益总体上增长 强劲。

拉美地区近几个月投资收益率有所下降。

亚洲国家整体上处于收益率提升阶段。

分行业 看,能源及IT仍然是收益增长最快的行业,公用事业及金融业近期收益率也有所上调。

原材料 行业收益率面临下调。

大部分EMEA国家股权投资收益率近期有所上调。

部分中欧国家如捷克在EMEA地区收益率估价 最高,土耳其和俄罗斯都是我们目前比较看重的市场,这两个国家的投资收益率预期也在上调 。

南非仍然是冷门,收益率仍在下降区间。

亚洲地区,中国,包括台湾的投资收益率预期上调最多,中国电信及金融行业,台湾的IT行业 仍将是热点。

菲律宾及印度的能源和原材料行业收益率增长预期高涨。

相比较而言,韩国、印 尼以及泰国表现平平。

拉美国家中,巴西和墨西哥投资收益率预期下调。

巴西的电信及原材料行业近期下调了很多。

墨西哥则整体上都在下调。

A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 54 2008新兴市场国家收益率分布 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 55 2008投资亚洲地区的六个要点 关注通胀影响:通胀发展状况和各国央行为应对通胀而采取的措施都会影响收益率,香港、印 度、马来西亚、房地产行业以及定价能力强的行业或企业可能收益前景可观。

内生增长型的资本市场:在全球经济面临下降周期的前提下,应将关注点转移到内生增长的市 场,比如印度,比如中国,重点关注电信行业,基础设施等。

投资收益仍在增长,但增长成本提高或者已经偏贵的国家或地区可以作为分散投资风险的资产 配置选择,比如韩国和泰国。

政治局势好转的积极影响。

今年底和明年日本、韩国、泰国、台湾、马来西亚要举行大选。

中国资本流出的动向对市场影响巨大。

可能从中国资本流出中获益的国家包括韩国、新加坡、 印度。

关注日益成熟的小经济体如越南、巴基斯坦、孟加拉、斯里兰卡甚至蒙古等。

A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 56 2008亚洲各国预期收益率增长及波动 债券投资 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 58 2008投资建议:买入 对于金融系统已经产生的忧虑以及经济放缓可能会继续在2008年影响债券市场投资者信心 预期金融系统在明年会逐渐从创伤中复苏 建议买入美国债券 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 59 风险与收益永远成正比 企业部门在此次周期中的借贷及再融资风险相对较低。

从企业债券投资的角度,我们看好国际 化程度较高的行业,如资本品,金属及采矿等,以及优势科技产业,如无线电信。

另外应该注 意到周期性消费品盈利压力增大。

金融行业在2007年经历了急剧的价格重估,2008年将面临摆脱结构性及杠杆融资泡沫影响的过 渡期,预期大型存款机构的风险收益比最好;证券公司和专业金融公司的选择性很高。

A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 60 对于美国债券市场的行业投资建议 中国经济展望 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 62 2003年以来投资与出口支撑中国以超过10%的高速增长 China: Economic Indicators %y-o-y Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Q32007 Q22007 Q120072006 Real GDP 11.511.911.110.7 Industrial production 17.317.918.918.118.718.316.6 Retail sales 18.818.117.016.815.814.913.7 Urban fixed asset investment 2630.724.726.127.125.324 CPI 6.96.56.26.13.62.71.5 PPI 4.63.22.72.62.72.93 Imports 25.325.516.121.018.218.220 Exports 22.822.322.826.627.527.927.2 Trade balance (USDbn) 26.327.12473.466.246.4177.5 Money supply M218.518.518.518.516.71716.9 Money supply M121.722.222.122.119.320.217.5 RMB loan 1717.717.117.116.516.315.1 Source: CEIC, HSBC A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 63 是否已经过热 02468 10 12 14 16 8082848688909394969800020406 % yr Actual GDP growth HP filter trend Cobb-Douglas production function trend A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 64 信贷投放过多… 5 10 15 20 25 98990001020304050607 % Yr 5 10 15 20 25 % Yr Money supply M1 Money supply M2 Bank loans Sources: CEIC, HSBC A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 65 但流动性过剩没有人们预想的那么严重 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 98990001020304050607 pp ts M1 grow th-Nom inal output grow th M2 grow th-nom inal output grow th A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 66 储蓄资金搬家推动了股市上涨… 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 98990001020304050607 0 5 10 15 20 25 Shanghai AShares Household deposits % yr A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 67 泡沫还能持续吗 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 0001020304050607 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Total market cap. of A shares Freely floating market cap. Freely floating market cap as % household savings (RHS) RMB bn % Sources: CEIC, HSBC A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 68 资本市场泡沫破灭的负财富效应究竟有多大 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00010203040506 Co ntr ibu ati on to G DP gr ow th, % Consumption Capital formation Net exports Sources: CEIC, HSBC A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 69 大幅升值并非医治贸易失衡和流动性过剩的良药 中国的贸易顺差源于: 全球制造商将其劳动密集生产环节转移到 中国 外商直接投资进口替代 两亿农村剩余劳动力需要转移 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 199019931996199920022005 US $b n 其他企业创造的贸易顺差总额 出口加工企业所创造的贸易顺差 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 70 不应对人民币实际有效汇率的作用期待过高 人民币实际有效汇率(REER)的变动可以改变出口但对贸易顺差影响有限: 贸易顺差= -1.62 + 0.22×全球GDP-0.02 × REER+0.24 ×全球市场份额-0.06 ×国内市场需求 (数据范围: 1995-2006; Source: Chang Shu, etc. “Impact of exchange rate movement on the mainland economy” China Economic Issues, July 2006,香港金管局) A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 71 人民币实际有效汇率自05年7月以来也已经升值了10.3%,基本恢复到 02年的水平 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Real effective exchange rate Nominal effective exchange rate 2000=100 A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 72 中国经济已经跟美国经济脱钩了吗 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 969798990001020304050607 % yr China total exports (RHS) China exports to US -5 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 9798990001020304050607 % yr 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 US imports from China USGDP growth Sources: CEIC, HSBC A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 73 中国是否已成为新的全球经济增长发动机 -20 0 20 40 60 80 979901030507 % yr ,3 m m a -20 0 20 40 60 80 China exports to G3 China imports from Asia Sources: CEIC, HSBC A 4 La nd sc ap e N on -M es sa ge 74 Disclosure appendix Analyst certification The following analyst(s), who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Hongbin Qu This report is designed for, and should only be utilised by, institutional investors. Furthermore, HSBC believes an investor's decision to make an investment should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings and other considerations. Analysts are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking revenues. For disclosures in respect of any company, please see the most recently published report on that company available at /research. * HSBCLegal Entities are listed in the Disclaimer below. Additional disclosures 1 This report is dated as at 04 October 2007. 2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 03 October 2007, unless otherwise indicated in the report. 3 HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. 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