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研究报告:东方证券-《他山之石,可以攻玉》-080103

研报作者: 来自:东方证券 时间:2008-01-04 10:03:11
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    (PDF)
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    pat****008
  • 研报出处
    东方证券
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    5 页
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研究报告内容

1 一、策略研究 研究机构 报告名称策略观点 JPMorgan HongKong daily views-Hong Kong Monthly Wrap The labor market improved, as the unemployment rate edged down to 3.6% in November, a record low in nine years. Headline inflation rose 3.4%oya, driven by higher food and energy prices. Private housing rent increased a solid 6%oya and non-housing CPI grew 3%oya. The strong export growth can be attributed to Christmas sales and increasing demand from China. Many Hong Kong retail companies Many Hong Kong retail companies reported their 1H08 results in December. The results reflected the strong growth in domestic consumption. Texwinca, one of our mid-cap picks for 2008, recorded a solid 1H08 net profit growth of 42%oya, with retail revenue up by 13%oya. We upgraded our rating on Bank of East Asia to Neutral, and reiterated our Overweight rating on Hang Seng Bank with a new Dec-08 PT of HK$173. 二、行业深度研究 研究 机构 报告名称 行业 类别 行业 评级 行业观点代表公司 中信 《发改委调 整药品价格 点评》 医药 卫生 维持 强于 大市 价格调整以升为主,普药企业明显受益:调价以 升为主,预示未来调价新趋势;价格调整涉及品 种大多为普药;价格调整以注射剂药品为主;相 关公司受益,尤其是双鹤药业;我们认为此次发 改委的药品调整策略利好普药和廉价药生产企 业,并且这种策略将是未来价格调整的趋势。

基 于此,我们维持行业“强于大市”的评级,并再 次重申医改中低端医疗市场将更为受益的观点。

-- Lehma n Brother Asia Consumer 2008 China-HK Cons umer Posit ive We reiterate our 1-positive view for the consumer sectors of both China and Hong Kong in 2008. We see 2008 as an important year for China's consumer sector, riding on the Beijing Favorable China stocks: Parkson 2007年1月3日 他山之石,可以攻玉 编者按: 为了了解同行的研究动态,我们制作此产品以跟踪观察竞争对手的研究报告。

目前,我们着重跟踪以 下9家券商的研究动态:中金、中信、招商、国信、国泰、申万、海通、光大和国金,所跟踪的内容包括 其策略研究、行业深度研究、买入评级(推荐评级)及减持评级的公司研究报告并择其报告重点以作摘要。

2 consumer sector outlook Olympics wave and continuing strong domestic consumption themes - rising trade-up spending by consumers, enhanced government consumption-led growth policy, and the likely acceleration in acquisitions potential. We believe continuing improvement in local consumption in Hong Kong, buttressed by rising wealth effect will underpin a better sales outlook although the rising competitive threat from more aggressive expansion by foreign entrants will intensify the sector’s polarization effect. Retail TsingTao Brewery China Resources Enterprise, Belle. Preferred HK retail stocks: Sa Sa; Esprit and Li & Fung. Lehma n Brother Metals & Mining Coal and Cement Preferred Basic Indus tries Neut ral Going into 2008, Chinese coal and cement remain our preferred sectors, given the solid domestically driven supply/demand situation, the accelerating industry consolidation, and the asset injection potential. We expect an extended upcycle for these two sectors in the medium term. OW China Coal China National Building Materials Goldm an Sachs Asia Pacific Telecom Services Overweight telcos in 2008 - less absolute, but more relative returns Telec om Servi ces -- The tariff drop last year is slightly higher than the 11-12% we saw in 2006, due to the full implementation of CPP (the launch of non-CPP plans have been forbidden since the start of 2007). Early last year, both China Mobile and China Unicom stated that 50% of their subscribers were on CPP packages. As more and more subscribers migrate to CPP plans going forward, we may see higher yearly telecom tariff reduction. We expect the impact to be offset by positive price elasticity at China Mobile, that ARPU will remain relatively stable. However, we see weaker price elasticity at China Unicom and we believe the telecom tariff reduction will pose pressure on its ARPU. OW China Mobile Neutral China Netcom China telecom China Unicom UW China Unicom-A JPMor gan China Telcos-sect or news update China Telco s Alert The tariff drop last year is slightly higher than the 11-12% we saw in 2006, due to the full implementation of CPP (the launch of non-CPP plans have been forbidden since the start of 2007). Early last year, both China Mobile and China Unicom stated that 50% of their subscribers were on CPP packages. As more and more subscribers migrate to CPP plans going forward, we may see higher yearly -- 3 telecom tariff reduction. We expect the impact to be offset by positive price elasticity at China Mobile, that ARPU will remain relatively stable. However, we see weaker price elasticity at China Unicom and we believe the telecom tariff reduction will pose pressure on its ARPU. We believe subscribers with heavy roaming usage would have chosen tariff plans which offer preferential roaming rates which are much lower than the current roaming fee caps. Therefore, the lowering of domestic roaming fee cap is likely to pose only limited impact on ARPUs in our view. 三、公司研究 盈利预测研究机构 推荐公司 证券代码 投资评级 07E 08E 09E 推荐理由 国信浦发银行600000维持推荐1.262.10 -- 业绩基本符合预期,高拨备和高税率 确保08年增长:业绩基本符合预期, 拨备提高与所得税率下降两种相反作 用下业绩增长有所加快;ROE提高 主要来自于所得税率下降;公司资本 充足率接近监管底线,再融资要求强 烈;厚实的拨备与继续下降的税率保 障盈利持续高增长空间,维持“推荐” 评级。

招商浦发银行600000 维持强烈推荐 1.262.503.18 略微低于预期1季度将爆发式高增 长:全年业绩略微低于预期;预计1 季度将爆发式高增长;略调低08年 盈利预期,维持强烈推荐评级,调低 目标价至65-70元。

国信苏宁电器002024维持推荐0.951.692.51 兑现预期、增厚业绩——收购加盟店 点评:收购加盟店:增厚公司盈利; 考虑到公司的长期持续增长趋势,我 们给予09年35倍的动态PE,公司 价值在88元/股,我们对苏宁的投资 策略仍坚持买入并长期持有,投资评 级维持推荐。

国信泛海建设000046维持推荐0.651.333.09 资产注入获批,公司发展进入新阶段: 调整后的增发方案获得顺利通过符合 我们的预期;收购后公司土地储备和 4 资本实力进一步增强,保障可持续发 展;消除同业竞争,促进公司规范运 作;完成本次资产注入后,公司项目储 备权益建筑面积在800万平米左右, 发展进入新阶段;调控有利于优势企 业的发展,随着整合效应的体现,公 司将在行业“洗牌”过程中不断发展 壮大;预计07-09年净利润复合增长 超过100%,维持“推荐”的投资评级。

中信冀东水泥000401维持买入-- 0.691.06 关于冀东水泥拟变更实际控制人的提 示性公告的简评:看好一旦中材集团 或其所属的上市公司采用直接增资的 方式对冀东水泥集团实现控股后将对 冀东水泥中长期发展的巨大正面作 用,冀东水泥有望借助中材作为大型 央企在资金、技术、管理和区域市场 整合等方面的优势实现自己的跨越式 发展,突显其华北地区水泥龙头的霸 主地位;一旦协议得以有效落实公司 的成长步伐将大大加快,未来几年公 司的成长性将值得期待,此前对公司 08、09年定向增发摊薄后的EPS预 测0.69元和1.06元将很可能被大 幅突破,随之我们此前给出的目标价 25元也将被突破,因此我们维持“买 入”评级。

然而由于具体注资方案还 未清晰,因此我们暂时还无法对业绩 预测和估值进行具体修整。

招商置信电气600517 维持强烈推荐 0.831.682.94 成功商业模式的复制带来高速增长: 置信电气在2007年取得快速增长的 主要因素有以下四点,1、技术优势 明显,克服了降低噪音难题;2、规 模优势及对上游原材料的议价优势; 3、具有可复制的有效商业模式;4、 “节能减排”政策提供了良好的外部 环境。

根据迈克尔.波特五力竞争要素 分析,置信电气在子行业中具备明显 的竞争优势。

根据对置信电气上述竞 争要素的分析,我们认为该公司有望 在“十一五”期间保持目前的高增长 趋势,维持“强烈推荐”评级。

我们 上调了2007的盈利预测,增发后 2007、2008、2009年每股收益为 5 0.83、1.68和2.94元。

按照2008 年50倍市盈率计算,目标价84元。

Lehman Brother TsingTao Brewery 0168.HKOverweight 0.470.710.93 We reiterate 1-OW rating on TsingTao Brewery (TB) with PT of HK$32.1. Our recent meeting with senior management of TB suggests that industry trends continue to favor national players over regional ones. Looking into 2008, we expect the brewery industry consolidations may speed up in the context of rising barley cost and China’s credit tightening environment. We expect a robust earnings growth for TB in 2008 given its strong top-line growth, ability to maintain a stable GPM and expected disappearance of asset impairment expenses in 2008.

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