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好孩子国际研究报告:申银万国-好孩子国际-1086.HK-收购将产生积极效果,协同效应可期,维持买入评级-140129

研报作者:Joyce Jia,Crystal Xu 来自:申银万国 时间:2014-01-30 14:32:57
  • 股票名称
    好孩子国际
  • 股票代码
    1086.HK
  • 研报类型
    (PDF)
  • 发布者
    se***er
  • 研报出处
    申银万国
  • 研报页数
    6 页
  • 推荐评级
    买入
  • 研报大小
    498 KB
研究报告内容

ConsumerDurables&Apparel|Company SWSResearchCo.Ltd 99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai|+862123297818 TheChineseViewonChina January29,2014 买入 维持 收购将产生积极效果,协同效应可期,维持 买入评级 GOODBABYINTERNATIONALHOLDI(1086HK) MarketData:Jan,28 ClosingPrice(HK$) 3.74 PriceTarget(HK$) 4.9 HSCEI 9,764 HSCCI 4,223 52-weekHigh/Low(HK$) 4.73/2.61 MarketCap(USDMn) 482 MarketCap(HK$Mn) 3,740 SharesOutstanding(Mn) 1,000 ExchangeRate(RMB-HK$) 1.27 PricePerformanceChart: Source:Bloomberg Analyst JoyceJiaA0230511040078 AXB629 jiatt@swsresearch.com Contact CrystalXu (8621)23297818×7486 RelatedReports "Abetteryearahead"Jan14,2014 The company does not hold any equities or derivatives of the listed company mentioned in this report (“target”), but then we shall provide financial advisory services subject to the relevant laws and regulations. Any affiliates of the company may hold equities of the target, which may exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investment banking services to the target. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact compliance@swsresearch.com for relevant disclosure materials or log into under disclosure Financialsummaryandvaluation 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Revenue (HKD million) 3,941.674,554.464,320.285,542.016,343.19 YOY (%) 5.90 15.55 (5.14) 28.28 14.46 Net income (HKD million) 176.92181.21174.04292.84399.58 YOY (%) (12.92) 2.43 (3.96) 68.26 36.45 EPS (HKD) 0.18 0.18 0.170.27 0.36 Diluted EPS (HKD) 0.18 0.18 0.170.27 0.36 ROE (%) 10.53 9.78 11.9715.16 15.08 Debt/asset (%) 47.04 41.97 55.1757.43 46.49 Dividend Yield (%) 1.34 1.34 1.402.14 2.91 P/E (x) 21.14 21.14 21.4914.05 10.30 P/B (x) 2.23 2.02 2.572.13 1.55 EV/EBITDA (x) 20.49 18.30 21.8613.42 9.92 Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised. P/E is calculated as closing price divided by each year’s EPS. 投资要点: 事件:好孩子公布其收购了一家知名儿童用品公司Cybex。

Cybex总部位于德国,主要 从事设计和销售儿童用品,在奥地利、英国、法国、意大利、荷兰和中国均设有分公司。

收购价格合理,盈利增厚。

收购成本约为港币7.51亿元,将以现金偿付约港币4.09 亿元以及通过新发行股份偿付约港币3.42亿元。

公司将进行欧元贷款,借贷利率约 2.9%,每年利息费用约为港币1.18千万元。

新发行的1亿股份约占现有股本的10%。

目标公司2012年收入规模约为港币6.3亿元,税后净利润为港币4.45千万元,净利 润率约为6%。

收购价格对应17倍12年的PE,因为该公司仍处于快速成长阶段,我们 认为此收购价格是合理的。

收购将带来积极效果,期待出现协同效应。

我们认为收购Cybex将为好孩子提供欧洲 大陆成熟的直销网络,并拓展集团的产品组合以涵盖高档儿童汽车安全座椅。

另外, 借助好孩子强大的分销网络,公司将在中国市场推广Cybex品牌,尤其是在中国安全 座椅领域。

我们认为目标公司作为市场驱动的高档品牌将与好孩子的研发驱动的模式 相互补,增强好孩子国际在该行业的领导地位。

上调盈利与目标价,维持买入评级。

我们略上调每股盈利预测14年的4.7%至港币 0,27元(同比上升58.8%),15年的5.5%至港币0.36元(同比上升33.3%)。

我们 小幅上调目标价从港币4.7元至港币4.9元,维持买入评级,股价存在31%的上升空 间。

我们认为好孩子最有望享受中国婴幼儿耐用品行业的蓬勃发展,尤其是安全座椅 业务,此次收购活动将增强好孩子在此领域的竞争优势。

ConsumerDurables&Apparel|Company SWSResearchCo.Ltd 99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai|+862123297818 TheChineseViewonChina column for further information. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure and disclaimer last page. InvestmentHighlights: What’ new: Goodbaby announced the acquisition of a leading child safety and lifestyle brand Cybex. Established in Germany, the company is engaged in the design and sale of juvenile products with branches in Austria, UK, France, Italy, Netherlands and PRC. Reasonable price, earnings accretive. Total consideration amounted to c.HK$751m, with a HK$409m cash consideration and c.HK$342m new shares issued. The company will finance through Euro-denominated loans with an interest rate of c.2.9%, translating into a financing cost of HK$11.8m per annum. The new issue of 100m new shares will represent c.10% of existing issued share capital. The target company posted revenue of c.HK$630m and net profit after tax of HK$44.5m in 2012, with a net margin of c.6%. The acquisition price represents 17x 12PE, which is reasonable in our view, as the company is still undergoing rapid growth. Positive on the acquisition, synergies expected. We believe the acquisition provides Goodbaby with an established direct distribution network in continental Europe and expanded product portfolio with premium car seat. Moreover, the company will expand Cybex’s presence in the Chinese market leveraging Goodbaby’s strong distribution network, especially in the rapidly growing Chinese car seat market. We believe the target company’s marketing-driven premium brand is complementary with Goodbaby’s R&D driven model. Revise up earnings and target, maintain BUY. We believe Goodbaby is best positioned to enjoy China’s booming juvenile durable industry, especially car seats, and the acquisition will enhance Goodbaby’s competitive advantage in this segment. We revise up our EPS forecasts by 4.7% to HK$0.27 in 14E (+58.8% YoY) and by 5.5% to HK$0.36 in 15E (+33.3% YoY). In addition, we raise our target from HK$4.7 to HK$4.9. Given 31% upside, we maintain BUY. October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page1 January29,2014 ConsumerDurables&Apparel |Company Research Appendix Figure1:ConsolidatedIncomeStatement million HKD 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 3,9424,5544,3205,5426,343 Overseas market 2,9413,2512,9433,9374,379 Domestic market 1,0011,3031,3771,6051,965 Cost of Sales 3,2683,6833,3784,1414,686 Overseas market 2,5082,7112,3702,9923,316 Domestic market 7609711,0081,1491,370 Gross Profit 6748729421,4011,658 Other Income 10654556063 Selling/General/Admi. Expenses 5727037951,1021,236 EBITDA 202220198353478 EBIT 202220198353478 Finance Costs (4) 8438 Profit before tax 194216202357487 Income tax expense 1633266183 Minority interests 12234 Profit for the year 177181174293400 Source: Company data, SWS Research Figure2:ConsolidatedCashFlowStatement million HKD 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Profit before taxation 178216202357487 Plus:Depr. and amortisation 79100122139154 Finance cost 124 (4) (3) (8) Losses from investments 00000 Change in working capital (116) (22) 33 (613) 152 Others (3) (3) 000 CF from operating activities 139261464781,020 CAPEX (162) (133) (150) (150) (150) Other CF from investing activities 8 (115) 000 CF from investing activities (154) (248) (150) (150) (150) Equity financing 0000100 Net change in liabilities (159) 1,19404090 Dividend and interest paid (50) (50) (52) (88) (120) Other CF from financing activities (12) (12) 000 CF from financing activities (221) 168 (52) 321 (20) Net cash flow (236) (155) 261249850 FCFF 219176111894247 FCFE 481,3661151,307255 Source: Company data, SWS Research October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page2 January29,2014 ConsumerDurables&Apparel |Company Research Figure3:ConsolidatedBalanceSheetStatement million HKD 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Current Assets 2,4072,3982,4543,7104,095 Bank balances and cash 7886338951,1441,994 Trade and other receivables 7871,0164601,103686 Inventories 677625582897776 Other current assets 14123123123123 Long-term investment 00000 PP&E 640676737775803 Intangible and other assets 5451525253 Total Assets 3,1713,1923,2434,5374,950 Current Liabilities 1,4431,3211,4481,8421,529 Borrowings 00300300300 Trade and other payables 857791615995673 Other current liabilities 1312121212 Long-term liabilities 211919428428 Total Liabilities 1,4921,3401,7892,6062,301 Minority Interests 2830323539 Shareholder Equity 1,6801,8521,4541,9322,649 Share Capital 1010101011 Reserves 1,6701,7621,4121,8872,599 Equity attributable 1,6521,8221,4221,8972,610 Total Liabilities and equity 3,1713,1923,2434,5374,950 Source: Company data, SWS Research Figure4:Financialratios 201120122013E 2014E 2015E Ratios per share (yuan) Earnings per share 0.180.180.170.270.36 Diluted EPS 0.180.180.170.270.36 Operating CF per share 0.140.260.460.070.93 Dividend per share 0.050.050.050.080.11 Net assets per share 1.681.851.451.762.41 Key Operating Ratios(%) ROIC 15.5013.4515.3216.5123.99 ROE 10.539.7811.9715.1615.08 Gross profit margin 17.0919.1421.8125.2926.13 EBITDAMargin 5.114.834.586.377.54 EBIT Margin 5.114.834.586.377.54 Growth rate of Revenue(YoY) 5.9015.55 (5.14) 28.2814.46 Growth rate of Profit(YoY) (12.92) 2.43 (3.96) 68.2636.45 Debt-to-asset ratio 47.0441.9755.1757.4346.49 Turnover rate of net assets 2.472.582.613.272.77 Turnover rate of total assets 1.281.431.341.421.34 Effective tax rate (%) 8.0014.9113.2817.1617.30 Dividend yield (%) 1.341.341.402.142.91 Valuation Ratios (X) P/E 21.1421.1421.4914.0510.30 P/B 2.232.022.572.131.55 EV/Sale 1.050.881.000.850.75 EV/EBITDA 20.4918.3021.8613.429.92 Source: Company data, SWS Research October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page3 January29,2014 ConsumerDurables&Apparel |Company Research Information Disclosure: The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst. The analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has any financial interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the analyst, the Company or the group company(ies). A group company(ies) of the Company confirm that they, whether individually or as a group (i) are not involved in any market making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with any group company(ies) of the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do not have any financial interest in relation to the listed corporation reviewed or (iv) do not, presently or within the last 12 months, have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation reviewed. 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