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中信银行研究报告:申银万国(香港)-中信银行-0998.HK-刚性兑付将持续压制估值,资产质量风险继续累积-140129

研报作者:Vivian Xue 来自:申银万国(香港) 时间:2014-01-30 14:18:52
  • 股票名称
    中信银行
  • 股票代码
    0998.HK
  • 研报类型
    (PDF)
  • 发布者
    张伟***19
  • 研报出处
    申银万国(香港)
  • 研报页数
    12 页
  • 推荐评级
  • 研报大小
    579 KB
研究报告内容

Bank|Company Research SWSResearchCo.Ltd 99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai|+862123297818 BringingChinatotheWorld January29,2014 Underperform Downgrade 刚性兑付将持续压制估值,资产质量风险继续累积 中信银行(998:HK) MarketData:Jan28 ClosingPrice(HK$) 3.76 PriceTarget(HK$) 3.37 HSCEI 9,764 HSCCI 4,223 52-weekHigh/Low(HK$) 5.29/3.37 MarketCap(USDMn) 22,656 MarketCap(HK$Mn) 175,920 SharesOutstanding(Mn) 14,882 ExchangeRate(RMB-HK$) 1.27 PricePerformanceChart: Source:Bloomberg Analyst VivianXueA0230511110001 BBE746 xuehr@swsresearch.com RelatedReports "RumorsaboutFileNo.9prevail again,thefinalimpactstilldepends ontheprovisionratioandrisk weightingCBRCcharges"Dec 27,2013 "2014BankingInvestmentStrategy_ Movingtowardsliberalization"Dec 24,2013 The company does not hold any equities or derivatives of the listed company mentioned in this report (“target”), but then we shall provide financial advisory services subject to the relevant laws and regulations. Any affiliates of the company may hold equities of the target, which may exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investment banking services to the target. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact compliance@swsresearch.com for relevant disclosure materials or log into under disclosure column for further information. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure and disclaimer upon the last page. Financialsummaryandvaluation 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Net interest income (RMB M) 65,106 75,486 80,829 91,504 102,790 YOY (%) 35.26 15.94 7.08 13.21 12.33 Net income (RMB M) 30,819 31,032 35,148 40,479 47,425 YOY (%) RMB) 43.28 0.69 13.26 15.17 17.16 EPS (RMB) S ( 0.72 0.66 0.75 0.87 1.01 Diluted EP 0.66 0.66 0.75 0.87 1.01 BVPS (RMB) ) (%) 3.73 4.24 4.84 5.53 6.34 ROAE (% o 20.92 16.65 16.55 16.68 17.07 NPL rati 0.60 0.74 1.00 1.13 1.20 CAR (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) 12.33 13.52 11.94 11.86 11.94 4.08 4.42 3.90 3.39 2.89 0.79 0.69 0.61 0.53 0.46 Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised. P/E is calculated as closing price divided by each year’s EPS. 投资要点: 近期调研显示公司资产质量仍然承压。

中信银行依托中信集团背景,曾经拥有非常 稳定的企业存款和国企客户资源。

但是我们的调研显示这两项优势正在不断弱化, 一方面理财产品和货币基金大受追捧导致存款脱媒;另一方面,资产质量风险正逐 渐由民营经济向国有企业蔓延,因此公司不良贷款和拨备压力可能将超出市场此前 预期。

公司表示经济增速的下滑对资产质量的负面影响可能需要2-3年时间来消化。

刚性兑付将压制板块中长期估值。

尽管中诚信托违约风险短期已经解除,但是板块 中长期估值水平将因为刚性兑付而持续承压。

刚性兑付导致的风险收益不匹配将进 一步提升投资者的风险偏好,使得传统的存款和利率债吸引力进一步下降。

一方 面,这将使得银行更为依赖短期负债,另一方面,这将提高银行融资成本,迫使银 行加大期限错配,提升风险偏好,从而使得整个行业流动性风险和资产质量风险不 断累积。

我们调研的多数银行表示今年整体流动性将继续从紧而GDP增速也将继续 下滑,因此我们将看到更多类似中诚信托这样的融资项目出现兑付危机。

截至2013 年3季度末,融资类集合信托和投资于非标资产的理财产品余额分别接近1.1万亿 和3万亿,我们预计其中至少50%将于今年到期。

在刚性兑付的前提下,任何一个 小的兑付危机都将引发投资者对银行流动性风险和资产质量风险的担忧。

下调评级至减持。

鉴于资产质量风险可能大于预期,我们下调2013-2015年EPS预 测至0.75/0.87/1.01元,对应净利润同比增速13.3%/15.2%/17.2%。

目前公司股价 对应0.53倍2014年PB。

鉴于刚性兑付将压制中长期板块估值,我们下调公司目标 2014PB至0.47倍,对应新六个月目标价3.37港币,意味着10%的股价下行空 间,我们由此将公司评级由中性下调至减持。

关键假设:基于贷款增速14%/13%和净息差收窄11/1个基点的预测,我们预计公 司2013/2014年净利润增速将达到13%/15%。

不良贷款率将上升至 1.00%/1.13%,资本充足率将稳定在11.5%以上。

下行催化剂:宏观经济增速显著下滑;更多兑付危机爆发;同业监管政策力度超预期 上行风险:经济持续复苏;货币政策趋于宽松;同业监管较预期更为温和 October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan29,2014 Banking|CompanyResearch Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page1 InvestmentHighlights: Recent channel check indicates rising asset quality risk. Thanks to its group background,CITICusedtoenjoyastablesourceofcorporatedepositsandSOEclients. However,accordingtoourchannelcheck,theseadvantagesaregraduallydisappearing. Due to wealth management products (WMP) and money market funds, traditional depositshavesignificantlydeclined. Inaddition,asasset-qualityriskgraduallyexpands fromprivateenterprisestoSOEs,wethereforebelieveCITIC’snon-performingloan(NPL) andprovisionpressurewillbe larger thanmarket expectations. The company guided that itwill take two-threeyears for it todigest thenegative impactofadecelerating GDPgrowth. Valuation under pressure due to rigid payment. Though rigid payments removed short-termdefault risksofChinaCredit Trust, themid- to long-term valuationof the banking sector will remain under pressure. Rigid payments will lift investors’ risk appetite,makingtraditionaldepositsandlow-yieldbondsevenhardertobeissued.This willmake banksmore dependent on short-term liabilities and suffer rising financing costs.Thiswill inturnforcebankstoraise lendingratesandpreferriskierassets.Asa result, liquidity and asset quality risks will continue to rise. Given tight liquidity conditionsand the slowdownofGDP in2014,weexpect increased liquidityproblems stemming fromWMP and trustproducts.According toour estimates, thebalanceof collective financing trust and WMP invested in non-standardised assets reached Rmb1.1tnandRmb3tnasofend-3Q13,webelievemorethan50%oftheseproductswill beduewithin2014.Givenstrictpaymentschedules,everysmalldefaultriskswilltrigger investors’concernsonbanks’liquidityandassetquality. Downgrade toUnderperform. In lightofhigherassetquality risks,we revisedown our EPS forecast from Rmb0.77 to Rmb0.75 in 13E (+13.3% YoY), from Rmb0.89 to Rmb0.87 in14E(+15.2%YoY)andfromRmb1.03toRmb1.01 in15E(+17.2%YoY).The stockiscurrentlytradingat0.53x14EPB.Giventhevaluationoverhangonthebackof strictpaymentschedules,werevisedownourtargetmultiple from0.59xto0.47x14E PB.Wearriveatnew sixmonth targetpriceofHK$3.37, implying10%downside.We downgradefromNeutraltoUnderperform. Keyassumption.Basedonaloansgrowthassumptionof14%in14Eand13%in15E, weforecastYoYnetprofitgrowthof13%in14Eand15%in15Eandnetinterestmargin (NIM) contraction of 11bps in 13E and 1bp in 14E.We believeNPLswill increase to 1.00%and1.13%,whileCARremainsabove11.5%atend-2013and2014. October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan29,2014 Banking|CompanyResearch Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page2 Assetqualityremainsunderpressure CITIC has been renowned by its group background, which used to give it a stable source of corporate deposit and SOE clients. But according to our channel check, these two advantages are gradually disappearing. On the one hand, traditional deposit significantly decline due to WMP and money market fund; on the other hand, asset quality risk gradually expands from private enterprises to SOEs, so we believe CITIC’s NPL and provision pressure will be larger than market expectation going forward. The company indicates it may take 2-3 three years for CITIC to digest the negative impact of GDP slowdown. Figure 1, Recent channel check indicates CMBC’s fundamental remain stable Loanquota Tight loanpricing Stable Largeenterprise 5%-10%discount SMEs 20%premium Microbusiness 30%-40%premium Non-interestincome promoteinvestmentbankingbusiness,andWMPsaleskeepsresilient Depositcompetition Becomefiercer Assetquality 50%ofnewNPLsin2013camefromsteeltraderelatedindustries,andin 2014,thecompanyindicatesnewrisksmaycomefromcoalandmining Source: SWSResearch We believe its NPL ratio will increase to 1.00% and 1.13% as of end 2.13 and 2014. In light of higher asset quality risk, we revise down our 2013/2014/2015 EPS forecast from RMB 0.77/0.89/1.03 to RMB 0.75/0.87/1.01, representing YoY growth of 13.3%/15.2%/17.2%. Figure 2, Asset quality risk may beat market expectation 1.48% 1.41% 0.95% 0.67% 0.60% 0.74% 1.00% 1.13% 1.20% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 (E ) 20 14 (E ) 20 15 (E ) NPLRatio EndingTotalnon-performing loans RMBmn Source: SWSResearch October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan29,2014 Banking|CompanyResearch Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page3 Figure 3, Earnings forecast 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 (E ) 20 14 (E ) 20 15 (E ) Netprofitattributable toequityholdersofthebank Netprofitgrowth RMBmn Source: SWSResearch Figure 4, EPS and BPS estimate 0.25 0.24 0.34 0.37 0.55 0.72 0.66 0.75 0.87 1.011.02 2.15 2.44 2.63 3.08 3.73 4.24 4.84 5.53 6.34 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 (E ) 20 14 (E ) 20 15 (E ) BasicEPSBPS RMB Source: SWSResearch October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan29,2014 Banking|CompanyResearch Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page4 Valuationwillremainunderpressure Though the short term default risk of China Credit Trust removed, mid to long term valuation of banking sector will still be under pressure due to rigid payment. Rigid payment will lift investors’ risk appetite and make traditional deposit and low yield bond even harder to be issued. This will make banks more dependent on short- term liability and raise their financing cost, which will in turn force banks to raise lending rate and prefer more risky assets. Therefore, the liquidity risk and asset quality risk both accumulate. Given the overall tight liquidity condition and GDP growth slowdown in 2014, we are going to see more and more similar liquidity problem from WMP or trust products. According to our estimate, the balance of collective financing trust and WMP invested in non-standardized assets reached RMB 1.1 and 3 trillion as of end 3Q2013, and we believe more than 50% of these products will be due within 2014. Amid rigid payment every small default risk will trigger investors’ concern on banks’ liquidity risk and asset quality risk. Figure 5, Total trust breakdown divided by underlying assets 7.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 Individualtrust Collectivefinancingtrust CollectiveInvestment trust Managementtrust RMBtr Source: SWSResearch October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan29,2014 Banking|CompanyResearch Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page5 Figure 6, Total WMP breakdown divided by duration 4.54% 59.88% 21.87% 10.98% 1.12% 0.27% 1.33% Lessthan1M 1-3M 3-6M 6-12M 12-24M Morethan24M Other Source: SWSResearch Figure 7, Total WMP breakdown divided by underlying assets 2.38% 27.73% 31.17% 2.43% 1.97% 0.77% 0.25% 33.30% Stock Bond Interestrate Bill Creditasset Exchangerate Commodity Other Source: SWSResearch October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan29,2014 Banking|CompanyResearch Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page6 Figure 8, CITICWMP breakdown divided by underlying assets 9.97% 20.78% 20.80%14.49% 13.65% 0.04% 20.27% Stock Bond Interestrate Bill Creditasset Exchangerate Commodity Other Source: SWSResearch Figure 9, CITIC has ~350 WMPs to be due within 2014 14 47 53 57 46 36 25 19 28 1817 12 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec No.ofWMPtobeduewithinthemonth Source: SWSResearch October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan29,2014 Banking|CompanyResearch Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page7 Downgradetounderperform In light of higher asset quality risks, we revise down our EPS forecast from Rmb0.77 to Rmb0.75 in 13E (+13.3% YoY), from Rmb0.89 to Rmb0.87 in 14E (+15.2% YoY) and from Rmb1.03 to Rmb1.01 in 15E (+17.2% YoY). The stock is currently trading at 0.53x 14E PB. Given the valuation overhang on the back of rigid payments, we revise down its target from 0.59x to 0.47x 14E PB. We arrive at new six month target price of HK$3.37, implying 10% downside. We downgrade from Neutral to underperform. Catalysts Macro economy stagnate; more default risk explodes, CBRC rules out harsher-than-expected regulation on interbank business Risks Macro economy further recovers; monetary policy turns more loose; interbank regulation comes in milder than expectation. Figure 10, Valuation table of HK listed Chinese banks TradingPE TradingPBCompany Code Rating Targetprice(HK$) +/-(%) 13E 14E 15E 13E 14E 15E CMBC 1988HK Outperform 9.67 10.9% 4.5 3.9 3.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 CRCB 3618HK Outperform 3.97 21.4% 4.0 3.4 3.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 CITIC 998HK Underperform 3.37 -10.4% 4.0 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 ICBC 1398HK Neutral 5.70 22.1% 5.1 4.6 4.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 CCB 939HK Neutral 6.20 17.4% 4.9 4.5 4.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 BOC 3988HK Neutral 3.70 13.8% 4.9 4.5 4.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 ABC 1288HK Outperform 4.41 32.4% 5.2 4.4 3.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 BOCOM 3328HK Neutral 5.23 4.2% 4.4 3.9 3.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 CMB 3968HK Neutral 14.35 5.4% 5.4 4.7 4.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 Source: Bloomberg, SWSResearch; Notes:StockpricesareasatJan28,2014. Figure 11, PB-ROAE of HK listed Chinese banks October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan29,2014 Banking|CompanyResearch Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page8 ICBC CCB BOC ABC BOCOM CMB CITIC CMBC CRCB y=4.054x- 0.035 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 15.0% 17.0% 19.0% 21.0% 23.0% 25.0% 2014EPB 2014EROAE Source: Bloomberg, SWSResearch; Notes:StockpricesareasatJan28,2014. Appendix Figure12:ForecastIncomeStatement RMBmillion 2004200520062007200820092010201120122013(E) 2014(E) 2015(E) InterestIncome 17,795 22,51128,44441,49458,86756,13172,460106,623138,810157,106 179,925 200,641 Interestexpense (7,412) (9,851) (11,971) (15,324) (22,776) (20,147) (24,325) (41,517) (63,324) (76,277) (88,421) (97,851) Netinterestincome 10,383 12,66016,47326,17036,09135,98448,13565,10675,48680,829 91,504 102,790 Feeandcommissionincome 449 6089652,3653,4534,7186,3089,48112,19415,852 20,427 26,512 Feeandcommissionexpense (131) (190) (206) (285) (408) (498) (612) (644) (984) (1,585) (2,043) (2,651) Netfeeandcommissionincome 318 4187592,0803,0454,2205,6968,83711,21014,267 18,384 23,861 Otheroperatingincome 445 577 695 (295) 1,236 811 2,525 3,149 3,015 3,100 3,100 3,100 Operatingincome 11,146 13,655 17,927 27,955 40,372 41,015 56,356 77,092 89,711 98,196 112,988 129,750 Operatingexpense (4,659) (6,113) (7,861) (9,761) (13,294) (16,370) (18,953) (23,038) (29,637) (31,423) (36,156) (40,223) Businesstaxandsurcharges (792) (991) (1,398) (2,034) (2,854) (2,761) (3,685) (5,343) (5,342) (6,106) (7,057) (7,986) Operatingprofitbeforeprovisions 5,695 6,551 8,668 16,160 24,224 21,884 33,718 48,711 54,732 60,667 69,775 81,542 Provisionforimpairmentlosses (1,634) (1,098) (1,666) (2,988) (5,379) (2,446) (4,238) (5,734) (12,804) (14,024) (16,117) (18,743) Provisionforotherassets 0000 (1,065) (173) (1,011) (1,473) (300) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) Otheritems 00000022686 (19) Profitbeforetax 4,061 5,4537,00213,17217,78019,26528,69541,59041,60946,642 53,658 62,799 Incometax (1,633) (2,369) (3,144) (4,850) (4,426) (4,705) (6,916) (10,746) (10,224) (11,194) (12,878) (15,072) Netprofitattributabletoequityholdersofthebank 2,428 3,0843,8588,32213,35414,32021,50930,81931,03235,14840,47947,425 Source:Companydata,SWSResearch Figure13:ForecastBalanceSheet October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan29,2014 Banking|CompanyResearch Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page9 RMBmillion 2004200520062007200820092010201120122013(E) 2014(E) 2015(E) Assets CashandBalancewithcentralbank 54,253 84,453 90,620 123,369 206,936 224,003 256,323 366,391 428,167 488,110 551,565 623,268 Cash/balances/Placementswithbanksandotherfinancialinstitution 20,899 31,352 43,250 26,655 50,446 267,011 278,220 699,750 457,476 616,558710,048769,406 Loansandadvancestocustomers 291,921 358,030 453,381 565,866 651,352 1,050,479 1,246,026 1,410,779 1,627,576 1,839,161 2,078,252 2,348,425 Investments 110,903 104,416 104,876 279,943 261,278 209,442 273,483 255,859 348,308 383,139 413,790 446,893 Noninterest-bearingassets 17,469 16,351 14,596 15,353 18,140 24,096 27,262 33,102 98,412 43,820 49,440 55,161 Total 495,445 594,602 706,723 1,011,186 1,188,152 1,775,031 2,081,314 2,765,881 2,959,939 3,370,788 3,803,095 4,243,153 Liabilities Deposits/Placementsfrombanksandotherfinancialinstitutions 38,490 28,261 36,367 113,002 110,525 283,702 153,116 550,028 399,734 471,910 532,433 551,610 Depositsfromcustomers 435,020 530,573 618,412 787,211 945,835 1,341,927 1,730,816 1,968,051 2,255,141 2,570,861 2,905,073 3,282,732 Debtsissued 6,000 6,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 18,422 34,915 33,730 56,402 56,402 56,402 56,402 TradingandDerivativeliabilities - - 655 1,914 5,718 6,383 14,855 3,764 3,412 - - - Noninterst-bearingliabilities 5,172 6,543 7,595 12,968 18,413 17,589 23,074 31,527 42,164 40,449 45,637 50,918 Total 484,682 571,377 675,029 927,095 1,092,491 1,668,023 1,956,776 2,587,100 2,756,853 3,139,623 3,539,545 3,941,662 Shareholders'equity Sharecapital - - 31,113 39,033 39,033 39,033 39,033 46,787 46,787 46,787 46,787 46,787 Reserves (7,031) (3,441) (303) 41,138 46,761 46,044 50,566 77,087 94,218 100,836 108,399 117,189 Retainedprofits - - 879 3,915 9,864 17,721 30,576 50,622 57,351 78,852 103,672 132,822 Totalshareholders'equity 10,759 23,220 31,689 84,086 95,331 102,798 120,175 174,496 198,356 226,475 258,858 296,798 MinorityInterests 4 5 5 5 3 4,210 4,363 4,285 4,730 4,691 4,692 4,693 Totalshareholders'equityandliabilities 495,445 594,602 706,723 1,011,186 1,188,152 1,775,031 2,081,314 2,765,881 2,959,939 3,370,788 3,803,095 4,243,153 Source:Companydata,SWSResearch October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company ResearchJan29,2014 Banking|CompanyResearch Information Disclosure: The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst. 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The Company strongly suggests the clients to consider themselves whether the opinions or suggestions herein are suitable for the clients’ particular situations; and to consult an independent investment consultant if necessary. Under no circumstances shall the information contained herein or the opinions expressed herein forms an investment recommendation to anyone. Under no circumstances shall the Company be held responsible for any loss caused by the use of any contents herein by anyone. Please be particularly cautious to the risks and exposures of the market via investment. ion Independent investment consultant should be consulted before any investment decision is rendered based on this report or at any request of explanat for this report where the receiver of this report is not a client of the Company. The Company possesses all copyrights of this report which shall be treated as non-public information. The Company reserves all rights related to this report. Unless otherwise indicated in writing, all the copyrights of all the materials herein belong to the Company. In the absence of any prior authorization by the Company in writing, no part of this report shall be copied, photocopied, replicated or redistributed to any other person in any form by Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page10 October 12,2010 Building Materials | Company Research Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosures Page11 Jan29,2014 Banking|CompanyResearch any means, or be used in any other ways which will infringe upon the copyrights of the Company. All the trademarks, service marks and marks used herein t of the are trademarks, service marks or marks of the Company, and no one shall have the right to use them at any circumstances without the prior consen Company. This report may be translated into different languages. The Company does not warrant that the translations are free from errors or discrepancies. This report is for distribution in Hong Kong only to persons who fall within the definition of professional investors whether under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the laws of Hong Kong) (the “SFO”) or the Securities and Futures (Professional Investor) Rules (Chapter 571D of the laws of the Hong Kong under the SFO). This report is for distribution in the United Kingdom only to persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) order 2001 (as amended) (the “Order”) or (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (“High Net Worth Companies, Unincorporated Associations, etc”) of the Order (All such persons together being referred to as “Relevant Persons”). This document is directed only at Relevant Persons. Other Persons who are not Relevant Persons must not act or rely upon this document or any of its contents.

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